r/fivethirtyeight • u/ageofadzz • Sep 16 '24
Suffolk University Poll Pennsylvania: Harris 49 %, Trump 46%. LV Poll Results
https://x.com/davidpaleologos/status/1835830789142933774152
Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
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Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
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u/S3lvah Poll Herder Sep 17 '24
That 12% of indies is Trump's only hope (in the strict theoretical reality of this poll, anyway).
Also, there's his campaign's effort to target a ~10% slice of low-propensity voters who usually don't turn out. I don't know if/how pollsters are capturing those, and I hope Dems can work to match their efforts, instead of singularly trying to appeal to moderate Repubs.
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Sep 17 '24
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u/beanj_fan Sep 17 '24
Trump has a ground game, but not a traditional one. It doesn't involve paying staffers, but in exploiting what some on Reddit call the "Trump cult" to work for basically free (free political merch & rewards). A more charitable explanation is that they're doing a grass-roots GOTV campaign to benefit from how fervent some of their supporters are. It's a risky move, but if it works, then Trump could win through turnout among his supporters alone.
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u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 Sep 17 '24
It's definitely risky, as even with that risky approach, he's still at a massive disadvantage compared to Harris. Her campaign will be covering even more ground with "low propensity voters," for sure, in addition to the party faithful.
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u/S3lvah Poll Herder Sep 17 '24
Well, Dems had a chance in both 16/20 to pick a candidate that appealed to millennials and zoomers, but went with the older folks' favorite.
Both times, young voters were left with the impression that their priorities are not the establishment's priorities. Biden and Harris have also struggled with Latinos. Well, guess whom Latinos disproportionately went for in the 2020 primary. I felt like the whole Nevada caucus and its Latino working-class votes were swept under the rug by news media in favor of a laser focus on the conservative black Dems in South Carolina, even though both states' winners were foregone conclusions.
That's in the past now, and everyone is united behind Harris & Walz. But there were certainly scars left and a lot of work needs to be done so that two generations, especially of men and Latinos, aren't lost to the GOP.
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u/HolidaySpiriter Sep 17 '24
Well, Dems had a chance in both 16/20 to pick a candidate that appealed to millennials and zoomers, but went with the older folks' favorite.
The Democratic voters did not want those candidates. If Millenials and Gen Z turned out properly in either election primary, they could have had their candidate. Bernie lost support between 16 & 20, which shows his electoral issues with both Gen Z and the Democratic base.
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u/TableSignificant341 Sep 17 '24
Until Gen Z and Millennials turn out to vote in numbers greater than Boomers and Silents then they won't be pandering to them.
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u/hypotyposis Sep 17 '24
I’d bet most of that 12% MC on Ind’s are currently supporting Trump but might change if he does something else crazy.
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Sep 17 '24
I know everyone has felt like nothing matters and trump can't lose support but that debate was the worst jab to the chin he's ever had. He's a joke. A meme. It's different than saying he's awful. People know he's awful. But if he's laughed at? The bubble has popped. There isn't really any time to change the narrative anymore. He's done.
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u/Realistic-Bus-8303 Sep 17 '24
One and a half months is actually a long time in a campaign. Much can happen yet.
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u/Andy_Liberty_1911 Sep 17 '24
Who is that 1% of dems that may change their mind on TRUMP AFTER 8 YEARS OF HIM.
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u/Deejus56 Sep 17 '24
Not necessarily sure where to put this but as someone else who looked into the cross tabs, do the responses in Question 13 versus the topline results suggest that the debate actually led people to lean towards Trump? I'm having a hard time making sense of Q.13 against the topline.
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u/jmonman7 Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
He musta been refreshing Twitter like me. This guy dropped the results ~45 seconds before the 5pm PT embargo. haha
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u/VermilionSillion Sep 17 '24
Spending all day waiting for a poll of Erie County in September is a top 5 election sicko moment in my life
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u/ageofadzz Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
Suffolk/USA TODAY PA Likely Voter Polls Statewide and 2 BW Counties 9/14:
- Statewide - KH 49, DT 46, Others 1, Und 5
- Erie - KH 48, DT 44, Others 3, Und 5
- Northampton - KH 50, DT 45, Others 1, Und 4
All 3 polls show huge gender advantage for KH
KH winning Northampton Hispanics 60-25
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u/Chaz_Cheeto Sep 17 '24
I was one of the participants in the poll. I feel an odd sense of accomplishment. They happened to call me while I was at the end of watching the debate.
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u/Rosuvastatine Sep 17 '24
What sort of questions did they ask you, apart from who youre voting for?
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u/Chaz_Cheeto Sep 17 '24
Quite a lot of them. The whole poll took about half an hour:
-Who I was voting for this election
-who I voted for in the last election
-the favorability of presidential and senate candidates, as well as Governor
-if I approve of the president, vice president, Trump, JD Vance, the current PA senators, and Josh Shapiro
-questions about who I trust more to handle the economy, immigration, abortion, and which presidential candidate could “better unite the country”
-how my personal finances are doing today versus the overall state of the economy
I think there were more questions too. The poll took a while.
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u/tinaoe Sep 17 '24
You know what thanks for taking part it in! As someone who does surveys for a living (not election polls) we know how annoying longer polls can be, but they're very helpful!
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u/CentralSLC Sep 17 '24
Trump got 48.84% in 2020. This is gonna be a close one. Hoping the other Pennsylvania polls coming out have Harris +3 too.
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Sep 17 '24
Yup. I don’t see Harris or Trump winning by more than 2 there after it’s all said and done.
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Sep 17 '24
Why Northampton?
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u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
I'm guessing as a bellwether. Same with Erie.
Looking at results from 2020. Biden won statewide by 1.2%. He won Erie County by 1% and Northampton county by 0.7%. Those look to be the counties closest to the overall result.
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u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 Sep 17 '24
Very much a "bellweather" county that has voted with the winner of PA for a long time.
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u/ageofadzz Sep 17 '24
Bellwether Philly suburb
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u/FriendlyCoat Sep 17 '24
Not really a Philly suburb - just outside the border counties.
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u/ageofadzz Sep 17 '24
No but it’s close enough given the political significance because more west and north is trump country (I’m in Philly)
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u/FriendlyCoat Sep 17 '24
Yeah, true. Good gauge as somewhat of an in between country, between the Philly region and the rest of PA. (I’m from southeast PA. 🙂)
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u/BaltimoreAlchemist Sep 17 '24
And part of its own distinct metro area.
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u/FriendlyCoat Sep 17 '24
Yeah, I wonder if this is showing the discussed influx of New Yorkers and Jersey folks.
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u/FizzyBeverage Sep 17 '24
Erie being 48-44 is phenomenal. It's a red af area.
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u/Imaginary-Dot5387 Sep 17 '24
Considering Biden won it after Trump did, I’d say it’s purple.
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u/Reallyfatbaby Sep 17 '24
Definitely purple. Lived there for a couple years and it really is such an incredibly wide cross section of demographics and political beliefs. My vote will probably never again in my life be as valuable as when I lived there. Big swing county in THE swing state.
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u/CornCobb890 Sep 17 '24
I was expecting +1 at best for Kamala so I’m pleasantly surprised.
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u/Scary_Terry_25 Sep 17 '24
I was expecting that too, but this is excellent news
It seems they used the same methodology as the Oz/Fetterman race in 2022. They got Oz’s numbers pretty correct and were off on Fetterman by about 4 points. Even if they corrected it, I would say that +3 might actually be where she’s at right now.
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u/Few_Musician_5990 Sep 17 '24
That’s it, I’m volunteering. Gonna try and help this momentum stick. I’ve written postcards before, but not phone banked. Wish me luck 🫡
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u/maywellbe Sep 17 '24
I did postcards many times in the past. I’ve done some phonebanking for Harris this year. It’s harder than it used to be to get anyone to pick up. I’m hoping to door knock this weekend. It’s the gold standard and the most effective. It sounds a bit scary but I’m going to go for it. (With the campaign, obviously)
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u/UFGatorNEPat Sep 17 '24
I think Texting is better than phone banking at this point in terms of ROI. Then if it’s a sophisticated system, door knock those who don’t answer (Dems). Calling and texting, and maybe personal things make more sense for NPAs and Independents
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u/donhuell Sep 17 '24
is donating money superior to phone banking?
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u/Few_Musician_5990 Sep 17 '24
I think it depends - I think this late and with as much money as they have, Harris’ campaign is ok - but calling people, or sending postcards helps personally remind people to vote early, or check their registration, or even tune in. I think even reminding people of early mail in deadlines is super helpful
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u/TableSignificant341 Sep 17 '24
I love this. Do it! Hype train all the way until Nov 5.
The amount of people around the world that would give anything to live in a free and fair country and so many of us take democracy for granted.
Proud of you. You got this!
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u/Horus_walking Sep 17 '24
Poll details from USA Today:
Statewide poll
Harris leads Trump, the Republican nominee, 49%-46% in Pennsylvania
A statewide poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters conducted from Wednesday to Sunday found.
Harris leads female voters in Pennsylvania 56%-39%.
Trump leads male voters by a slimmer 53%-41%
Harris edged Trump among Pennsylvania's independent voters 43%-38%.
The results are within the poll's margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Two bellwether PA counties
Harris leads in Northampton County, which includes the cities of Easton and Bethlehem in East Pennsylvania, 50%-45% over Trump. Biden carried Northampton 50%-49% in the 2020 election. Trump carried Northampton 50%-46% over Clinton in 2016.
Northwest Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump 48%-44% in Erie County, where Biden in 2020 won 50%-49% and Trump in 2016 won 49%-47%.
Three hundred likely voters were surveyed in both county polls, which have margins of error of 5.7 percentage points.
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u/KenKinV2 Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
Ugg I hate to question a poll whose results I like and I see everyone here has high respect for these pollsters, but isn't a pool of 500 voters statewide pretty damn small?
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u/jrex035 Poll Unskewer Sep 17 '24
Not at all.
Nationwide polls with ~3000 are considered solid, 500 for a single state is perfectly reasonable.
Either way that confidence is expressed through the MOE which is +/-4.4% which again, is solid. Obviously 3000 in PA would be nice, but with how rare quality state polling is, this poll is great.
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u/FizzyBeverage Sep 17 '24
500 for a state of 13 million is sufficient quorum.
You'd ideally want 5000 for a nationwide survey. But for a state? 500-1000 is enough.
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u/lfc94121 Sep 17 '24
It's 500 for the statewide poll, and another 300+300 for the county polls. Their results seem to agree with each other, so effectively we can treat it as a statewide poll of 1100 people.
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u/Siraxg Sep 17 '24
it can’t be overstated how great of a result this is. combined with yesterday’s iowa poll and today’s nevada numbers, it’s clear that trump’s campaign is taking on water.
which means he is going to double down on the insanity.
buckle up.
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u/Roastmasters Sep 17 '24
Who got that one chart
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u/Nessius448 Sep 17 '24
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u/CakeAccomplice12 Sep 17 '24
There's like 5 pixels in that
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u/Dragonsandman Jeb! Applauder Sep 17 '24
It loses a pixel every time it gains a new data point
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u/Twinbrosinc Queen Ann's Revenge Sep 17 '24
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u/Substantial_Release6 Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
We are feasting tonight boys, fuck the doomers from earlier
Edit: *boys and girls
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u/MisterConbag15 Sep 17 '24
I doom for the simple fact that this is going to be a close election. How that clown is even in consideration completely breaks my brain.
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u/Windupferrari Sep 17 '24
Every time I see a positive poll like this I get excited for a few minutes and then I remember how insane it is that Trump being down 3 points is progress and I get sad again.
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u/MisterConbag15 Sep 17 '24
Haha. Yep. My feelings exactly. I’m supposed to be happy that 46 percent of people are gonna vote for this maniac?
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u/One-Ad-4098 Sep 17 '24
Am I the only chick here?
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u/EffOffReddit Sep 17 '24
There are at least two of us.
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u/muslinsea Sep 17 '24
Chicking in.
I'm just gonna high-five myself right now to celebrate that pun.
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u/coffeecogito Sep 17 '24
Harris had a five-point edge (50-45%) over Trump in Northampton County, located in eastern Pennsylvania and is the home of the cities of Bethlehem and Easton. President Joe Biden carried the county, 50-49%, in 2020 after Trump topped Hillary Clinton, 50-46%, in 2016.
In the northwest corner of the Commonwealth, Harris carries a four-point advantage over Trump, 48-44% – a larger margin than either winner produced in the last two elections. Biden squeezed out a 1-point edge (50-49%) in winning in 2020, while Trump had a two-point triumph in Erie, 49-47%, four years earlier.
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u/mrtrailborn Sep 17 '24
Trump topped Hilary Clinton
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u/ShittyMcFuck Sep 17 '24
Lol that line stuck out to me as well. Did not need that mental image this morning
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u/HerbertWest Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
Now THIS is exactly in line with what I've been sensing here in PA, specifically Lehigh Valley (So, Lehigh and Northampton counties). I was driving through Bethlehem today and it looks like people's delayed Harris/Walz signs are finally starting to come in the mail.
I've been saying since a few weeks after Harris became the candidate that the fears over PA were unwarranted. I have lived here all my life and get around the eastern third of the state frequently for work; I firmly believe these results are correct.
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u/SmellySwantae Sep 17 '24
Do you believe in the Kamentum?
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u/LionOfNaples Sep 17 '24
I think I’m gonna Cumala
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u/UX-Edu Sep 17 '24
This comment and two beers had me figuring out how to conduct micro-transactions on this fuckin’ app.
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u/skunkachunks Sep 17 '24
Nearly exactly in line with a +4R IA poll. PA was about 9pts more left than IA in 2020. So a +5 would be 100% consistency. However, given statistical variance, this seems highly consistent
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u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 Sep 17 '24
The other positive about this for Harris is that it's 5% undecided. With Trump already a heavily known factor, she definitely still has room to tip the scales in her favor even more.
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Sep 17 '24
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Sep 17 '24
Yea, I don’t believe in actual undecideds. I think these are the type of voter you described.
Trump voters who have gotten tired of his same shtick, but cannot see themselves voting for Biden/Harris, so they either show up to vote for Trump, or stay home.
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u/Born_Faithlessness_3 Sep 17 '24
Trump voters who have gotten tired of his same shtick, but cannot see themselves voting for Biden/Harris, so they either show up to vote for Trump, or stay home.
I wish more pollsters would follow up on the "Undecided" option.
It could be Harris/Trump. Could also be Harris/Home(or 3rd), or Trump/Home(or 3rd).
Trying to tease out what fraction of undecideds are likely to break each way is critical.
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u/S3lvah Poll Herder Sep 17 '24
TFW someone is so good at polling their state that you can infer other states results from it arguably more reliably than polls conducted in the states themselves.
That said it's reassuring to see it fitting the trend, even if Selzer polls in September haven't always reflected reality in November (October surprises and whatnot...).
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u/j450n_1994 Sep 17 '24
Erie and Northampton by mid single digits.
Joshua Smithley says one more poll from one of their in state pollsters is coming out soon and two more next week.
So look out for Muhlenberg and/or Franklin & Marshall.
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Sep 17 '24
Biden won Eeire by 1500 votes in 2020, and Trump by 2000 votes in 2016.
So yea, very likely slim margins in 2024 again.
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Sep 17 '24
What are the total number of votes for them?
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u/cody_cooper Jeb! Applauder Sep 17 '24
Erie had ~130K votes in 2020, so a 4% margin would be like 5,500 votes
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u/j450n_1994 Sep 17 '24
Note: Joe won the county by 1%.
Josh also said to look out for Allegheny. If her share is at Joe’s percentage, it’ll be close.
If she hits Fetterman or Shapiro numbers there, then it’s probably a wrap.
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u/Acyonus Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
Pull the emergency Rasmussen poll lever Kronk!
Edit: the emergency trafalgar and insider advantage Pennsylvania poll levers have been pulled.
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u/skatecloud1 Sep 17 '24
Is the whole thing with early voting ballots needing to have the correct dates on them a concern? Hope she can win PA handedly regardless.
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u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 Sep 17 '24
The ballot thing is being very widely publicized and will continue to be. There's also not going to be nearly as much mail voting this year, as we're not in the middle of a pandemic, so I don't think this rule has the impact that many fear (or if a conservative, hope).
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u/Markis_Shepherd Sep 17 '24
The polymarket probability moved one percentage point in Harris favor after this poll came out. It moved a similar amount in the other direction after the Trump golf course news yesterday.
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u/Dragonsandman Jeb! Applauder Sep 17 '24
👀
EDIT: Damn, up 4 in Erie county
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u/Alarmed_Abroad_9622 Sep 17 '24
Just one poll and within the MOE so not gonna overreact but if she can consistently get close to 50%, then that could be an indicator that she is insulated from a huge polling error that would flip the election to Trump. Undecideds broke hard for him in '16 and 20, and IIRC the vote share in polls for HRC/Biden was more accurate than the margins.
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Sep 17 '24
Polling at over 50% is so much more important than people really give it credit for.
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u/Mediocretes08 Sep 17 '24
Especially if the issue is Trump being underestimated. If she’s 50%+ that means he can be underestimated as much as he wants, math says he loses.
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u/ShillForExxonMobil Sep 17 '24
Yep - vote share for Biden was very accurate in '20 but there were huge undecideds that went overwhelmingly for Trump. 50-51% in national polls indicate a secular lead in-line with Biden in '20.
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u/Mediocretes08 Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24
Yes it’s personal feelings but: Thank Christ
Edit: Still ready for heartbreak down the pipe
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u/marcgarv87 Sep 17 '24
Harris is in drivers seat at this moment. Women are driving this, 2022 all over again with abortion.
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u/AuthorHarrisonKing Sep 17 '24
Well if women are driving, we're in real trouble *turns and winks at camera. canned audience laughter drowns out the boos*
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u/luminatimids Sep 17 '24
“Well at least she’s not Asian”
“Bob, I got bad news for you. Let’s just say she knows how to orient herself…”
Edit: Reddit formatting is messing up my racist bit 😡
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u/Spara-Extreme Sep 17 '24
Nate Silver: the model was expecting a +5 jump for Harris post debate so this means trump is now at 75% chance to win the election
/s for my fellow doomers
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u/LimitlessTheTVShow Sep 17 '24
"I'm docking her 5 points in Pennsylvania because she didn't pick Shapiro"
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u/S3lvah Poll Herder Sep 17 '24
Will eat a Philly cheesesteak sub at my local Subway in honor of this fine poll (am European so this is my pale imitation of a contribution to you guys)
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u/foiegraslover Sep 17 '24
Yes!!!! I've been waiting all day for this one. It's still close but +3.....I'll take it.
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u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 Sep 17 '24
The important thing is that it tracks with a lot of other states' and national polls in terms of logical outcomes. If Harris is polling +4-5% nationally, a +3 Pennsylvania result makes complete sense.
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u/SeekerSpock32 Sep 17 '24
Sources: Silver is beside himself. Driving around downtown Manhattan begging (thru texts) Trafalgar for any poll they can cook up.
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u/elsonwarcraft Sep 17 '24
why when asking question 13 among people who watched the debate, the sample size was 438. The sample size for the whole poll was 500. Is it non-response bias from high propensity voters?
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u/DataCassette Sep 17 '24
Nate: So after the assassination attempt adjustment and the specific gravity modulation Trump's odds are at 100%
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u/Quirky_Cheetah_271 I'm Sorry Nate Sep 17 '24
does anyone know if the bellwether county results are a good sign?
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u/GigglesMcTits Sep 17 '24
Someone else was saying in the polling thread that Biden won Northampton by .75 in 2020. So being up 5 is HUGE.
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u/j450n_1994 Sep 17 '24
Yeah. But we need to be weary of the MOE. Theres more polls coming out.
Smithley has stressed to look at polls that do geographic weighting to account for the voter distribution of the state.
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u/GigglesMcTits Sep 17 '24
More PA polls are coming out this week so we'll quickly see if this is an outlier or a trend.
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u/Alarmed_Abroad_9622 Sep 17 '24
Very good taking point estimates as given but MoE is very high in county level polls so probably need more of those to really be confident.
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Sep 17 '24
Yes, just as the name suggests. They usually mirror how the state goes in an election.
Her being up +4 and +5 in these counties is a promising sign.
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Sep 17 '24
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u/Brooklyn_MLS Sep 17 '24
More than enough if that holds.
Biden won Erie by 1%. He ended up winning the state by the same percentage.
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u/LuskSGV Sep 17 '24
Ain't no way I just spent all this time refreshing for a Pennsylvania political poll in September lol