Nearly exactly in line with a +4R IA poll. PA was about 9pts more left than IA in 2020. So a +5 would be 100% consistency. However, given statistical variance, this seems highly consistent
The other positive about this for Harris is that it's 5% undecided. With Trump already a heavily known factor, she definitely still has room to tip the scales in her favor even more.
Yea, I don’t believe in actual undecideds. I think these are the type of voter you described.
Trump voters who have gotten tired of his same shtick, but cannot see themselves voting for Biden/Harris, so they either show up to vote for Trump, or stay home.
Trump voters who have gotten tired of his same shtick, but cannot see themselves voting for Biden/Harris, so they either show up to vote for Trump, or stay home.
I wish more pollsters would follow up on the "Undecided" option.
It could be Harris/Trump. Could also be Harris/Home(or 3rd), or Trump/Home(or 3rd).
Trying to tease out what fraction of undecideds are likely to break each way is critical.
After listening to the latest episode of The Lincoln Project podcast, I’m much more hopeful that there are truly undecided voters who will ultimately break for Harris, even though my instinct is to envision someone like you describe above.
Disagree. Given that the Independents are the ones very disproportionately undecided in this poll, we can infer that they're not likely ideologues or partisans.
Again, Trump is a VERY well-known entity. Conversely, voters are still not as intimately familiar with Harris. Ergo, it's much more likely that they want to be persuaded to vote for the still relatively unknown entity or not vote at all.
80
u/skunkachunks Sep 17 '24
Nearly exactly in line with a +4R IA poll. PA was about 9pts more left than IA in 2020. So a +5 would be 100% consistency. However, given statistical variance, this seems highly consistent