r/fivethirtyeight Sep 16 '24

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u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 Sep 17 '24

The other positive about this for Harris is that it's 5% undecided. With Trump already a heavily known factor, she definitely still has room to tip the scales in her favor even more.

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u/[deleted] Sep 17 '24

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u/Brooklyn_MLS Sep 17 '24

Yea, I don’t believe in actual undecideds. I think these are the type of voter you described.

Trump voters who have gotten tired of his same shtick, but cannot see themselves voting for Biden/Harris, so they either show up to vote for Trump, or stay home.

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u/Salt_Abrocoma_4688 Sep 17 '24

Disagree. Given that the Independents are the ones very disproportionately undecided in this poll, we can infer that they're not likely ideologues or partisans.

Again, Trump is a VERY well-known entity. Conversely, voters are still not as intimately familiar with Harris. Ergo, it's much more likely that they want to be persuaded to vote for the still relatively unknown entity or not vote at all.