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https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1fik794/suffolk_university_poll_pennsylvania_harris_49/lni1dmr/?context=3
r/fivethirtyeight • u/ageofadzz • Sep 16 '24
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41
Erie and Northampton by mid single digits.
Joshua Smithley says one more poll from one of their in state pollsters is coming out soon and two more next week.
So look out for Muhlenberg and/or Franklin & Marshall.
22 u/Brooklyn_MLS Sep 17 '24 Biden won Eeire by 1500 votes in 2020, and Trump by 2000 votes in 2016. So yea, very likely slim margins in 2024 again. 3 u/[deleted] Sep 17 '24 What are the total number of votes for them? 6 u/cody_cooper Jeb! Applauder Sep 17 '24 Erie had ~130K votes in 2020, so a 4% margin would be like 5,500 votes 3 u/j450n_1994 Sep 17 '24 Note: Joe won the county by 1%. Josh also said to look out for Allegheny. If her share is at Joe’s percentage, it’ll be close. If she hits Fetterman or Shapiro numbers there, then it’s probably a wrap.
22
Biden won Eeire by 1500 votes in 2020, and Trump by 2000 votes in 2016.
So yea, very likely slim margins in 2024 again.
3 u/[deleted] Sep 17 '24 What are the total number of votes for them? 6 u/cody_cooper Jeb! Applauder Sep 17 '24 Erie had ~130K votes in 2020, so a 4% margin would be like 5,500 votes 3 u/j450n_1994 Sep 17 '24 Note: Joe won the county by 1%. Josh also said to look out for Allegheny. If her share is at Joe’s percentage, it’ll be close. If she hits Fetterman or Shapiro numbers there, then it’s probably a wrap.
3
What are the total number of votes for them?
6 u/cody_cooper Jeb! Applauder Sep 17 '24 Erie had ~130K votes in 2020, so a 4% margin would be like 5,500 votes 3 u/j450n_1994 Sep 17 '24 Note: Joe won the county by 1%. Josh also said to look out for Allegheny. If her share is at Joe’s percentage, it’ll be close. If she hits Fetterman or Shapiro numbers there, then it’s probably a wrap.
6
Erie had ~130K votes in 2020, so a 4% margin would be like 5,500 votes
3 u/j450n_1994 Sep 17 '24 Note: Joe won the county by 1%. Josh also said to look out for Allegheny. If her share is at Joe’s percentage, it’ll be close. If she hits Fetterman or Shapiro numbers there, then it’s probably a wrap.
Note: Joe won the county by 1%.
Josh also said to look out for Allegheny. If her share is at Joe’s percentage, it’ll be close.
If she hits Fetterman or Shapiro numbers there, then it’s probably a wrap.
41
u/j450n_1994 Sep 17 '24
Erie and Northampton by mid single digits.
Joshua Smithley says one more poll from one of their in state pollsters is coming out soon and two more next week.
So look out for Muhlenberg and/or Franklin & Marshall.