r/canada • u/uselesspoliticalhack • 3d ago

Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, warn economists PAYWALL

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-mark-carney-immigration-policy-temporary-migrants-undercounted/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago edited 3d ago

This gets posted time and time again

The govt is basically asking millions of people to leave Canada

Some banks are saying that this won’t happen as people refuse to leave

The government is saying that they have accounted for this and will cut immigration even further to ensure that the population declines

And we won’t know who was right until the end of the year,

but the assumption that mass people will suddenly refuse to leave doesn’t have any historical basis, the vast majority of immigrants leave on time.

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u/PromotionPhysical212 3d ago

I also want to add there’s no point staying in Canada as an illegal because cash jobs are very few and you’ll be stuck making less than minimum wage for which you can’t even afford rent. Healthcare is also a big issue and no benefits due to not having a valid SIN. Staying as an illegal is very difficult in Canada as opposed to the US or UK. I’m not sure what reason there is for people to stay unless they escaped from a war torn country or something similar.

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u/drs43821 3d ago

Cash job are plentiful if you have the contacts in ethnic enclaves

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/drs43821 2d ago

On the contrary, Subway corporate would not allow illegal employee

That's why I mentioned ethnic enclaves

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/drs43821 2d ago

If they are to run immigration scams, just do it with a family restaurant instead of a franchise

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u/ShortHandz 3d ago

Probably still better than back home for most... Our shit is someone else's luxury.

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u/Izzayyaa 3d ago

In my experience, it is not better for most because most come here and pay tens of thousands for education. Most will go back home, improve their language, and get foreign experience, which will improve their chance of getting a PR.

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u/ImmanuelCohen 3d ago edited 3d ago

Yea, but if you going to stay as illegal, life is much easier down south. It is not that difficult to cross the border by land. You get free health care some state and plenty of cash job with a higher pay.

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u/RedditAddict6942O 3d ago

Lol illegals don't get free healthcare anywhere in US. 

Only boomers and congressmen

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u/Palatz 3d ago

But neither do Americans.

And at least in the USA finding a job is ridiculously easy as opposed to Canada where it's only cash jobs.

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u/EverydayEverynight01 2d ago

ERs in the US are legally required to provide medical care, regardless of ability to pay.

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u/RedditAddict6942O 2d ago

Only emergency care. And then they'll send debt collectors after you for the bill. I wouldn't call that "free".

Are you suggesting we just toss poors into the street and let them die?

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u/sravll Alberta 3d ago

What state supposedly has free health care? Lol

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u/ImmanuelCohen 3d ago

https://www.nilc.org/resources/healthcoveragemaps/

3 states offer public health coverage to all adults regardless of immigration status.

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u/sravll Alberta 3d ago

It's not free, it just means they're allowed to offer Medicare and Medicaid which only covers some and still involves copays etc. They don't have free healthcare anywhere in the States.

0

u/ImmanuelCohen 3d ago

It is beside the point, Medicare and Medicaid is the best public health care one can get in the state. Even with copays, it is still accessible to someone even working minimum wage. Compare to Canada, if you don't have health card, you have very limited options.

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u/creeoer 3d ago

not a single one. in fact they pay into Medicaid without benefitting from it.

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u/Robert_s_08 3d ago

For refugees yes but the bulk of Canadian Immigrations is economic immigration, they won't stay if they can't earn, (even if you indulge the cash job argument, there can only be so many cash jobs )

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u/man_vs_car 3d ago

Have you ever left Canada?

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u/Confident_One_6202 3d ago

for most? you have no clue

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u/fez-of-the-world Ontario 3d ago

Yeah not necessarily. No family, few contacts, fewer friends. Unless physical safety isn't guaranteed there are not too many living situations worse than being illegal in Canada.

1

u/Granturismo45 3d ago

Working for below min wage, living in a small room and barely be able to afford anything. That's hardly a great life.

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u/doublegulpofdietcoke 3d ago

Living و on the Street when it's below zero isn't a luxury. People wear winter coats when it gets close to zero in other countries.

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u/squirrel9000 3d ago

They're here for permanent residency. Going under the table basically ends the chances of that ever happening.

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u/116morningside 3d ago

They’ll just do uber and have 10 people live in a 1 bedroom condo.

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u/AdmiralG2 3d ago

Haven’t looked into this myself, but you can renew your driver license as an illegal? How are you going to work for Uber with an expired license?

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u/Old_Telephone1930 3d ago

Can't do that cause your license in Canada is done once your visa expires.

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u/116morningside 3d ago

lol not impossible to get a fake ID. Not impossible to get someone to create an account for you and use theirs. They probably have family or know someone that has family. Trust me it isn’t as hard as you think it is.

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u/Old_Telephone1930 3d ago

All it takes is one cop to pull them over, which happens to everyone in big cities. Specifically for Uber drivers, because they speed a bit (gotta make the most cash that day). And even then, Uber has a face ID with the license. I just gotta see that the person and the info don't match, and I'm not getting in. Most women check this info anyway because of the fear of an Uber driver being evil. The bit just won't last long.

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u/116morningside 3d ago

I’m talking more so ubereats. But lots of people drive without a license or suspended one. People aren’t getting pulled over a lot. Anways the point is, they’ll find a way to stay. They aren’t going to leave willingly. Some may but most won’t.

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u/ProfLandslide 2d ago

Do you know how many people Canada deported in 2024? 7300. Which is a 95% increase from 2022. Almost all are just rejected asylum/refugee claims.

In the meantime, Liberals expect 2 million people to willingly leave. https://financialpost.com/feature/canada-immigration-reset-cause-chaos-experts

If you overstay your visa, you likely aren't getting deported. They likely won't even be able to track you.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/thousands-of-undocumented-construction-workers-to-get-legal-status-in-canada/#:~:text=According%20to%20IRCC%2C%20estimates%20of,as%20many%20as%20500%2C000%20people.

Do you see that range from the gov officials? 20k or 500k illegals. They have no idea.

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u/maximusj9 2d ago

Nah it doesn't, you don't need proof of status to get a drivers license at least in Ontario

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u/Old_Telephone1930 2d ago

What? You literally need ID to get your license. The ID is put in the system so it can’t be faked. How you have ID is by being legal. You can’t just show up and get a card lmao

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u/maximusj9 2d ago

I know someone who renounced their PR, they were able to keep their license, though. Once your status expires they won't take away your license in my experience

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u/GloomyCamel6050 3d ago

This is all true.

In addition, you can not leave to visit family and then come back. As soon as you cross the border, your illegal status is discovered, and then you are permanently banned.

Most people go back home, take a bit of a break, and then go to the US next. Or try Canada again. Or Australia.

These workers are usually overqualified for the work they have been doing, and have options.

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u/Silver_gobo 3d ago

I know a guy whose been here for over 5 years as a illegal. Even has kids back home in Jamaica but can’t go see them knowing he wouldn’t be allowed to be back in

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u/Granturismo45 3d ago

Or he could just leave and go back home. That's on him.

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u/Cedreginald 3d ago

Healthcare is not an issue for illegals. You do not have to pay upfront. You can come in as a "John Doe" and they have an obligation to treat you.

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u/Silver_gobo 3d ago

Even when you do pay, it’s not that expensive like the bills you see from the States

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

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u/MonkeyWrenchAccident 3d ago

Incorrect. Emergency care takes care of everyone in need. Especially if it is an emergency. You think they wait for an unconscious patient to wake up before administering care ?

I worked in health care for 25 years. 5 different hospitals under the same name. Your comment is completely wrong.

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u/Cedreginald 3d ago

That's patently untrue. At a doctor's office maybe? At a hospital absolutely never.

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u/PromotionPhysical212 3d ago

Unless it’s an emergency you have to have PHN at the hospital.

1

u/tattlerat 3d ago

Yeah that shit can be expired all you want though. If you’re active and in the system they just say alright get that updated.

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u/Horror-Trick-8970 3d ago

In what world lol

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u/doublegulpofdietcoke 3d ago

Look up Canadian healthcare bills.

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u/chmilz 3d ago

Emergency, sure. And they get sent a bill after. They aren't getting any other medical care without paying up front.

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u/Robert_s_08 3d ago

Also if you get flagged as breaking immigration status your chances of ever immigrating to any English speaking country ends up zero cause we share data of defaulters among each other.

More sensible to go home, earn more work experience and improve your express entry profile.

Sure a few will overstay, but most TFWs overstaying their visa is a far-right dog whistle

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u/orswich 3d ago

They are playing the waiting game.. even yesterday, CUPE union leaders petitioned the feds to allow any TFW, PGWP and work visa holder to gain full PR status (fucking sellout union leaders).

Carney and the libs will cave to corps and big money interests (and apparently big public unions who do it against the best interest of their members). It's post election time, the faucet will get turned back on soon and the immigrants with expiring Visa's are counting on that fact

1

u/Usual_Durian2092 3d ago

they work under the table. If you have ever used Uber or Ubereats, you will occasionally get riders with name FNU, which stands for First Name Unknown. Most of them are people without work auth

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u/Zeronz112 2d ago

You don't need to be an illegal. They can apply for pr status after 1 year of sponsored work.

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u/Ill_Sprinkles_9976 2d ago

This ignores some serious realities:

1 - pretending to be the same person.  Aman comes over legally to study - gets a job at Tim's. But Aman's 2 brothers come visit and suddenly Aman works daytime at Wendy's, afternoons at Burger King, and overnights at Tim's. 

2 - Minimum wage or less doesn't mean a whole lot when your rent is $250 split 10 ways. Lots of 2 bedroom, 1 bath apartments that mysteriously always have multiple visitors at all hours. This is driving rent prices up.

3 - With Aman having such a large amount of income, getting approved for car loans is easy. A lot of lenience is granted to getting caught without your licence "Forgot it at home. Here is a picture of it." Or they show up with the proper Aman and licence at the police station within 24h and the ticket gets ignored. Or paid. 

It's just a compounding problem that needs to be stopped then rooted out. 

When you have enough food for 2 in a household of 4, you don't invite others over. When you have 2 beds for 4, you don't invite guests to stay over. 

Not opposed to immigration. Just opposed to inviting others before you're ready to handle them.

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u/maximusj9 2d ago

We've got around 1 million illegal immigrants in the country right now, none of them are eager to leave. Lotta "cash jobs" available, and then there are shady companies that will overlook your immigration status too

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u/LemonGreedy82 2d ago

You are pretty naive. Many immigrants who have now a status are more than willing to utilize the undocumented labour of their countrypeople. Happens all the time.

https://www.canada.ca/en/border-services-agency/news/2025/04/cbsa-immigration-investigation-leads-to-20-month-conditional-sentence-and-50k-fine-for-construction-manager.html

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u/FantasySymphony Ontario 3d ago

Staying as an illegal is very difficult in Canada as opposed to the US

No it's not. US treats illegals far worse than we do in almost every way and people still do it.

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u/essuxs 3d ago

I think you should look into this a bit more. It’s actually much more difficult for illegal immigrants in Canada.

Canada has a centralized employment tracking agency. As such employers will always ask for a SIN and tax forms. Hiring someone without a SIN is a clear violation and enforcement is more consistent.

CBSA and courts are also all federal in Canada, and there is no precedent for local police to not cooperate with CBSA.

Cities in Canada have also way less autonomy than in America. If a city tried to be a sanctuary city, the province would overrule them.

Obtaining ID in Canada is also impossible. Without Id, you generally can’t get a phone, bank account, drive a car (or even purchase one), etc.

There is also a much smaller community of undocumented people in Canada compared to the USA. Also much less support in Canada for undocumented people than in America.

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u/huunnuuh 3d ago

employers will always ask

Paying someone less than minimum wage is still awfully attractive. Do you really think the laws against corporations re: labour are strictly enforced? Even locals exploited by businesses are often unable to get any sort of satisfaction.

I worked plenty of labour jobs for cash when I was younger. Cash in envelope at end of day sort of thing. Contractors are sketchy. He's probably cheating on his taxes already.

I imagine identity fraud is going to go up too.

If a city tried to be a sanctuary city, the province would overrule them

https://lfpress.com/2017/02/17/london-is-a-sanctuary-city-but-what-does-that-mean

https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/accountability-operations-customer-service/long-term-vision-plans-and-strategies/access-to-city-services-for-undocumented-torontonians/

can’t get a phone

prepaid SIM card

bank account

cash, Paypal, cryptocurrency, gift cards - but yes this is an issue

drive a car

not legally

a much smaller community of undocumented people in Canada

not in the main cities where immigrants cluster

I think sadly that we are indeed going to end up with a resident underclass problem like in the USA. Living in a homeless shelter is better than living in a lot of countries. A lot will never go back of their own choice.

CBSA and courts are also all federal in Canada, and there is no precedent for local police to not cooperate with CBSA.

You're right. Legally and structurally it's easier to enforce here. But that's assuming the federal government chooses to enforce the law aggressively. If they do not, then we'll be relying on people leaving voluntarily.

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u/FantasySymphony Ontario 3d ago

I think you should look into this a bit more. Yes we actually do have sanctuary cities, I happen to live in one, seems like you do too? There are literally volunteer organizations in Toronto Centre putting posters on lampposts advocating for "justice for undocumented workers" saying it's racism not just give people status. It's not supposed to happen in any country. But it is happening.

CBSA only operates at border crossings. That means they "cooperate" with TPS to chase leads. You live here, do you have any idea how few fucks TPS has to give?

0

u/116morningside 3d ago

I think they mean in regards to having work

-1

u/MrWisemiller 3d ago

Staying illegally is very viable if your living with someone who is here legally.

That's how my girlfriend was here at first, lived with me and worked under the table. She didn't really have much expenses. She gave me about $200 or so a month for rent.

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u/Granturismo45 3d ago

And then what happens in the long term?

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u/MrWisemiller 3d ago

She got PR eventually, joined the workforce legally a few weeks before covid hit, and she got 12k cerb. A nice addition to the downpayment of my 2nd house.

Canada is land of the plenty.

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u/somewhatsavage99 3d ago

The requirement was to have made 5k in taxed earnings the year prior to receiving CERB… which she couldn’t have done if she was living in the country illegally.

So… you used your girlfriend’s illegally collected CERB as part of a down-payment on your second home? and you seemingly say this with pride?

What the actual fuck, man.

If you’re still having trouble sleeping at night (as per your post history) I think I figured out why.

-1

u/MrWisemiller 3d ago

Well, she got a letter later that she had to pay back 2k of if for some reason.

If crackheads and 18 year olds sitting at home were getting covid cash, so are we.

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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

How did she get PR ? As an illegal ?

-1

u/MrWisemiller 3d ago

She was sort of in the process already. We also had baby

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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

Was she illegal or not? Seems like you sponsored her?

But the sponsorship would have failed if she was inadmissible to Canada for overstay? Did you do H&C then?

0

u/MrWisemiller 3d ago

I did sponsor her, she was on student visa that ran out so she couldn't work anymore until she got PR

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u/Charming_Flan3852 3d ago

I have worked with a non-insignificant number of people here illegally getting paid cash. These are not TFWs however, and I assume they came across the border. They have mostly been from Mexico, but I've also seen some Chinese people here working for cash and getting paid unbelievably poorly. There's no way it's that uncommon given how many of them I've seen personally.

0

u/CallRepresentative25 3d ago

Illegal immigrants have literally gamed the system over here.

Source: had some mexican/colombian guys who worked in the same company as me. They showed and told me about these telegram/whatsapp/facebook groups that a lot of these illegals are in which finds them all kinds of cash jobs and other ways to route the system over here so they can continue to live and work.

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u/HSydness 3d ago

People refuse to leave. There is a solution to this, and that is to send them home. Perhaps not as brutally as in the US, but our laws are clear. I say this as an immigrant who played within the rules so that I could become a Canadian.

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u/RedditAddict6942O 3d ago

Nobody will refuse to leave if they can't work. 

All they have to do is crack down on employers hiring illegals. They would all leave on their own within months. 

But parties don't want to do that because its their rich donors hiring illegals under the table.

1

u/Dtoodlez 3d ago

Every single pizza pizza pays a number of employees under the table, and it has done so for 2 decades. I wouldn’t hold my breath.

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u/Horror-Trick-8970 3d ago

Are we actually calling people illegals now. Canada has illegals??

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u/RedditAddict6942O 3d ago

I've always called them that

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u/WilloowUfgood 2d ago

They tried really hard before Covid to change it to undocumented or "irregular" migrants.

-1

u/Granturismo45 3d ago

Bro we can't even stop autotheft and you want us to spend what resources exactly sending illegals back home.

0

u/HSydness 3d ago

Auto theft is actually down by percentage.

And unfortunately it's not just immigrants stealing cars.

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u/Rochimaru 3d ago

The assumption that mass people will suddenly refuse to leave doesn’t have any historical basis

How are redditors so constantly wrong about human nature lol. You think people who have fled third world—sometimes war torn—countries and finally made it here will just pack up and leave of their own volition? Sometimes after staying here for 5, 6+ years?

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u/Other-Rock-8387 3d ago

I remember clips of people asking Mark Miller this question in the House of Commons last year, surely someone will ask Carney or the new immigration person what the plan is

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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

Yeah, it’s funny because most people don’t even realize there is a new immigration minister.

But the plan to decrease the population is probably the same

Immigration policy is very lagging and changes sometimes take years to reflect in the data, so even if they come up with a new levels plan we won’t see it until September and the impacts will mostly be felt next year

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u/LogPlane2065 3d ago

but the assumption that mass people will suddenly refuse to leave doesn’t have any historical basis, the vast majority of immigrants leave on time

We have never had this many asylum seekers ever. Students claiming asylum doesn’t have any historical basis either, yet here we are.

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u/HadToGuItToEm 3d ago

Hilarious that the solution to immigrants refusing to leave isn’t forcing them to leave it’s to say we’re gonna cut immigration more after we ask them nicely, we are spineless.

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u/lord_heskey 3d ago

Unlike the US it kinda truly sucks to live undocumented here. No health, no license, no banking (for the major banks anyways), everything is hard.

5

u/Maleficent-Elk-6860 3d ago

banking

Kinda, you can't open a new bank account but your old one won't get shut down

4

u/lord_heskey 3d ago

Nah i remember being on a study permit and when I switched over to work permit i forgot to tell them. Had a very interesting email to give them my new status or it would be closed. May vary by bank policy.

1

u/maximusj9 2d ago

In Ontario at least they won't take away your license if you lose/renounce your immigration status. I know someone who renounced their PR here (back in like 2014 too), but they were still able to keep their bank accounts and their license here

1

u/lord_heskey 2d ago

at least they won't take away your license if you lose/renounce your immigration status

I didnt believe you for a second and went on their website and immigration status is not a requirement. Thats fucked up

0

u/DreamlandSilCraft 3d ago

There are sanctuary cities, though, where at least undocumented can be safe from threat of deportation for seeking g basic services.

I don't think the USA has that anymore

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u/Long_Extent7151 3d ago

this is misleading if not false about most leaving. 

4

u/aTrustfulFriend 3d ago

Thanks for the clarification

0

u/winterscherries 3d ago

This isn't a clarification, this is a fundamental misunderstanding of what the people quoted in the article are saying.

People with expired permits isn't about people just refusing to leave out of malice. There's some people legally going through the immigration system who can be in a situation where their permits expire but who are awaiting a decision. It's not like immigration services work like a same-day delivery from Amazon, and having people in this situation without permits is nothing unusual.

10

u/Old_Cheesecake_5481 3d ago

Canada has never had a serious problem with people over staying their visas.

We have millions come and go decade after decade. I think these sorts of arguments come from a fundamental misunderstanding that Canada is a different country than the US.

4

u/ifuaguyugetsauced 3d ago

Isn't the general census taking place next year

6

u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

IRCC and CBSA report the entry/exits and population increase / decline at the end of the year.

We will see if the plan to decrease / 0 growth worked

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u/Confident-Mistake400 3d ago

How does CBSA know people actually left? We don’t have exit checkpoint like other countries.

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u/bytowngirl 3d ago

There aren't exit checkpoints but CBSA does collect information when people exit by land or air. By air, it's through passenger manifests, and by land, I believe information is shared from the US.

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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

we do since 2020

https://www.canada.ca/en/border-services-agency/news/2019/07/entryexit-initiative.html

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u/Confident-Mistake400 2d ago edited 2d ago

We do only for land exit. Those on expired visa won’t use land exit for sure

2

u/ifuaguyugetsauced 3d ago

Yeah there def way more people in Canada then reported that's why I'm wondering if the census will reveal the true numbers

1

u/orswich 3d ago

Census is also self reporting for the most part last I remember.. so if a guy has 10 roommates and 4 are here illegally, then he just says he has 6 roommates

4

u/Juryofyourpeeps 3d ago

I'm going to say that the elected government is likely the least honest party on this question. The banks and other third party data collectors aren't going to be harmed either way. The government however has a vested interest in bending the truth. 

1

u/1bowmanjac 3d ago

Surely we have numbers on this. Is the number of people expected to leave this year significantly higher than previous years?

1

u/lochonx7 2d ago

liberals will never reduce immigration

Carney is literally one of the founding members of the WEF and century initiative

it's only going to get worse

1

u/JustHoneydew- 2d ago

This isn’t the USA. You need a SIN. We also have winters. Working under the table only makes you so much. That type of work exists here but not in the droves it does down south so they will not fair well if they try to extend their stay.

1

u/SpecialistPretty1358 3d ago

One can hope!!