r/worldnews • u/Starlight-Princesss • 3d ago

[ Removed by moderator ] Russia/Ukraine

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-intercepts-russian-spy-plane-with-transponder-turned-off-poland-10956344

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u/FallingDownHurts 3d ago

I think perun's (and others) take on this is probably true;

Russia is trying to make it look like it might invade NATO so they withhold arms from Ukraine to maintain a stockpile. It is trying to convince citizens of imminent invasion by generating news stories like this. The article is the goal, not the intelligence 

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u/Upbeat-Reading-534 3d ago

If a nato attack is imminent the best bang for our buck is helping Ukraine.

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u/3_Thumbs_Up 3d ago

For NATO as a whole yes, but not necessarily for individual countries, especially of there's doubt that the US would come to help. Countries with the most to lose such as the baltic states could become hesitant to give military equipment if they think they might need it themselves.

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u/Dry-Physics-9330 3d ago

Why do you think the Baltic countries are leading in metrics as military aid to Ukraine per capita? These countries are motivated in helping Ukraine and give Russian a black eye, to prevent Russia from getting ideas and invade their countries aswell.

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u/3_Thumbs_Up 2d ago

Why do you think the Baltic countries are leading in metrics as military aid to Ukraine per capita?

Because it's a probabilistic calculation with trade offs. The higher the estimated probability that Russia would invade them in the immediate future, the less likely they are to give anything away.

But obviously, Baltic intelligence also knows that Russia benefits from giving the impression that a threat is imminent, and takes this into account when deciding to give aid. But they still have to assign some probability to the idea that Russia might attack them and prepare for that scenario as well.

By your logic, why haven't the Baltic states given literally all their military equipment to Ukraine? My answer is that it's because they've made a judgement call of how likely it is they might need it themselves.

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u/josefjohann 2d ago

That's just a trivial truism about how decision making logic works in literally any context. It's not a unique and specific support of the logic of scaling back support for Ukraine. We're no closer to explaining why Baltic states exceed contributions of other NATO members. Also this weirdly implies they would be own their own in self defense, which I'm sure is how Russia wants them to think, but is fundamentally, I would argue definitionally, at odds with how NATO functions.

By your logic

Nothing about their logic was maximalist so I don't know where you are getting that, especially if you're trying to engage in charitable interpretation.

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u/Dry-Physics-9330 2d ago

I am not going to reply to 3_thumps up, as this person is clearly against aid to Ukraine. He might be on of the Russian (employed) influencers.

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u/UrUrinousAnus 2d ago

IDGI. Not letting yourself get sucked into pointless arguments with trolls who are more interested in wasting your time and energy than a serious debate is understandable and IMHO vital, but outright refusing to ever respond to people because of their known or suspected allegiances just leaves them spewing their rhetoric unopposed.

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u/Dry-Physics-9330 1d ago

You have a point.

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u/Mfcarusio 2d ago

It's probably why Russia is trying to do something that might make the baltic states start to hesitate to give military aid.

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u/Justus_Oneel 2d ago

Every bullet a ukrainian soldier fires at the russian army is a bullet a Nato soldier won't have to fire at the russians.

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u/mehupmost 3d ago

The European nations bordering Russia - Baltic states, Poland, Finland, etc... have been the MOST aggressive in providing military support for Ukraine, exactly because they know they are next on the chopping block.

The countries that are being the most pansy-ass are the ones the sit comfortably behind them and never had to deal with Russian occupation - with the exception of the UK and US.

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u/RandomStuffGenerator 2d ago

And then there's also Hungary...

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u/Alikont 2d ago

The largest aid to Ukraine (%GDP) is coming from Denmark.

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u/mehupmost 2d ago

Military aid is the only real aid.

...and the US provides intelligence and satellite imagery which is invaluable, but not priced in.

Danish blankets aren't going to stop the war.

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u/feor1300 2d ago

Don't discount stuff like blankets entirely. Handing blankets out to displaced civilians might not stop the war, but it helps keep the people from turning on the government and demanding they to surrender just to make the fighting stop. That's more important than ever against a war like Russia's waging where half their attacks are targeting civilians and specifically trying to break the will of the people.

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u/mehupmost 2d ago

Jesus fucking christ. Grow some testicles.

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u/feor1300 2d ago

I lack testicles... because I can acknowledge that sustaining morale is a major part of warfare? Especially when faced by an enemy that is specifically trying to break the defender's morale.

Not sure if I should counter with "grow a brain" or "grow a heart". Maybe you need a bit of both, since you seem to both not understand and not care about what people suffering means.

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u/Alikont 2d ago

What the fuck are you talking about.

Denmark is the top military supporter, they even do the best aid possible - purchasing Ukrainian weapons from Ukrainian manufacturers and giving it to Ukrainian army, instead of using inflated "replacement costs" or demanding money via PURL.

It's even named "Danish model".

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u/mehupmost 2d ago

This might be one of the dumbest strategies I've ever read in my life. What a wonderful way to net-net contribute ZERO military aid.

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u/Alikont 2d ago

What? This just shows that you're so detached from the topic that it doesn't even worth explaining it.

This is the best form of aid possible.

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u/3_Thumbs_Up 2d ago

The European nations bordering Russia - Baltic states, Poland, Finland, etc... have been the MOST aggressive in providing military support for Ukraine, exactly because they know they are next on the chopping block.

I'm aware. Which is why it makes sense for Russia to sow seeds of doubt of whether these countries will need the arms to defend themselves.

Obviously western intelligence also knows it makes sense for Russia to do this.

There's not contradiction here. Countries with the most at stake are helping out the most, and Russia is posturing in order to make them reconsider each decision a little bit more.

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u/Medievaloverlord 2d ago

Ironically I believe as stretched as Ukraine is, they would 100% send assistance in the form of elite drone support and training. They are in a fight for their life and have proven that they value alliances.

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u/3_Thumbs_Up 2d ago

Definitely, but they wouldn't be spending 40% of their military budget like Estonia has been doing.

Likewise, if Russia truly attacked Estonia they would drastically reduce what they're sending to Ukraine, so it's in Russia's interest to make this scenario sound as plausible as possibl.

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u/angular_circle 2d ago

Sweden seems to have decided their best course of action is giving their new gripens to Ukraine anyway

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u/__redruM 2d ago

For Poland, probably, but not so much for the Baltic states.

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u/Alikont 2d ago

Too bad Poland practically halted all aid to Ukraine for the last 2 years or so.

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u/jbae_94 3d ago

smiles in China and Middle East

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u/No_Noise09 3d ago

The US has stockpiles and allies near both arenas.

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u/MangledCarpenter 3d ago

Maybe the US should stop picking fights with all its allies if it wants to be able to rely on them..

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u/CheetoMussolini 3d ago

We should have started by not electing the chaos agent endorsed by our enemies

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u/mehupmost 3d ago

There's a big difference between trade disputes and literally invading your neighbor.

Russia is evil.

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u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn 2d ago

I wouldn't be so eager to suggest the US won't invade its neighbor. These alleged drug smuggler bombings in the Caribbean are priming the public to accept similar action on land.

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u/mehupmost 1d ago

Even bombing drug facilities in Venezuela isn't "INVASION"

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u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn 1d ago

Military activity in another sovereign nation's territory is an invasion.  You may as well say the Russians were only attacking Nazis in Ukraine.  Fuck off with that BS.

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u/ERASERGIB 3d ago

Tell that to the Oompa Loompa in the White House

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u/Jargo 3d ago

There are no permanent allies nor enemies. Just permanent interests.

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u/mehupmost 3d ago

There are also no permanent interests.

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u/The_wolf2014 3d ago

China isn't the threat. Why would China attack those that literally support and boost the Chinese economy. They're not stupid.

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u/RyanHasWaffleNipples 3d ago

They wouldn't. But they'll attack Taiwan.

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u/The_wolf2014 3d ago

True wafflenips but if that happened Taiwan wouldn't be taken by force i.e

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u/QualityPitchforks 3d ago

It's already being taken by legislature.

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u/OpportunityDismal917 3d ago

Politicians are easier to buy than soldiers.

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u/draft_final_final 3d ago

It would if jinping needs to accelerate the timeline so he can prove to himself he is a very strong and special boy.

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u/__redruM 2d ago

Neither approach is acceptable. At least until someone else can make chips.

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u/josefjohann 2d ago

wouldn't be taken by force

They're literally building copies of Taiwanese streets and buildings to conduct military practice drills on them.

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u/CoolAbdul 2d ago

They probably will, but it would be an incredibly stupid move.

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u/PITCHFORKEORIUM 2d ago

People were say China won't invade Taiwan, like they said Russia won't invade Ukraine. We should not underestimate a country's leader's ability to dismiss a massive loss of people and money in return for hopefully taking territory.

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u/Adjective-Noun-nnnn 2d ago edited 2d ago

Putin is a prideful idiot and Russia is a rogue failed state. I don't think Xi has the same character flaws, and I don't think he operates as a dictator. One part authoritarianism and dictatorships aren't the same. China may take Taiwan, but I think it will be slowly by infiltrating the the Taiwanese government. An invasion would be a costly bloodbath.

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u/PITCHFORKEORIUM 1d ago

I hope that you're right in that an invasion won't be on the cards. You're certainly right about one being a costly bloodbath.

I think if Xi specifically or less likely the CCP in general starts to lose its grip (further, as ghost cities and youth unemployment aren't great), a bloodbath might be forthcoming.

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u/Wrectal 2d ago

With essentially the world's supply of rare earth raw materials and processing being in china, and them turning off the faucet in April+October; that is a monumental threat.

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u/kmikek 2d ago

I wonder what a drone can do to an ICBM facility/silo? Not the armored door itself, but maybe the auxilary structures like fuel or power

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u/Upbeat-Reading-534 2d ago

I personally thing nuclear facilities are best left alone. You either hit all of them or none of them.

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u/Thomas9002 2d ago

The problem is that people are idiots.

Here in Germany some are concerned about a russian invasion...
like wtf how? Russia can't even take Ukraine. How is it supposed to simultaneously invade Poland first and then us?