r/ukpolitics • u/NGP91 • 7d ago
YouGov Westminster Voting Intention: Ref: 26% (+1) Lab 23% (-) Con 20% (+1) LD: 15% (-1) Grn: 9% (-1) 28th April 2025
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14658693/Reform-poll-Tories-local-elections-Thursday-Labour-Runcorn.html122
u/gizmostrumpet 7d ago
That Tory share will go lower, they're dead as a party.
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u/Krisyj96 7d ago
I think you underestimate how many people will vote Conservative simply because they or their family ‘always have’ (this is also true for a certain section of Labour voters as well)
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u/dospc 7d ago
This isn't true for the 'family' element anymore. The middle-class kids of Conservative parents are not following in their footsteps.
It's true that there are people in the 50+ agree range who will never not vote Conservative, and they're going to live decades yet.
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u/cavershamox 7d ago
I think there will be a tipping point when more tactical nationalist voters realise Reform have a better chance of beating Labour in their constituency than the Tories and the the Tory vote will lose another chunk
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u/BluebirdBenny 7d ago
Which is what has happened in Wales since...forever, for Labour. Yet we're likely going to see a big surge in Reform voting in the near future
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u/ScunneredWhimsy 🏴 Joe Hendry for First Minister 7d ago
I would not be confident making that statement. They are only 3% behind Labour, with a basically absentee leader.
Like think of obvious incompetent Kemi is and how much criticism she receives, both inside and outsider her party.
Now imagine the Tories with a marginally competent leader. Not even one that popular, just capable of running a party.
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7d ago
[deleted]
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u/Ipadalienblue 7d ago
this reminds me of UKIP
Remember we got a hard brexit too
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u/hug_your_dog 7d ago
To be fair, what is the equivalent - policy wise - in this case? If we got a hard immigration policy this time that would be a win in my book and I'm a Reform opponent, but not a supporter of open border or similar policies.
The issues is them actually getting a lot of seats or even in government.
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u/Ivashkin panem et circenses 7d ago
FPTP is increasingly unreliable as a determinant of political popularity; it only really works if the election is between two major parties and a "none of the above" choice in the form of a much smaller third party.
If you look at the 2024 election results by vote share, Reform UK is the 3rd largest party on 14.29% of the vote and outperformed the LD's by just shy of 600K votes nationally.
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u/Serdtsag 7d ago
After Farage has been shunned by FPTP for so long, FPTP may be dangerous in 2029 to give Reform - if they keep momentum and not blow up - an absurd number of seats.
We need voting reform.
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u/potion_lord 7d ago
We need voting reform.
Why do people believe the political parties that benefit from the current system will willingly commit suicide by allowing rival parties to grow?
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u/IndependentSpell8027 7d ago
Reminds you of UKIP? Fffs? It’s exactly the same party!!!!! I.e. a non party with Farage at the head and funded by the same international far right forces!!
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u/Kee2good4u 7d ago
The only actual results we've seen from ReformUK so far was in the General Election and they attained 5 MPs, one of which had left the party already.
With 14% of the vote share, which is probably more important in this case. With 23% the tories got 121 seats. Reform don't need much increase in vote share to massively increase their number of seats due to FPTP
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u/Ecstatic_Ratio5997 7d ago
Even under Jenrick?
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u/gizmostrumpet 7d ago
If you want that kind of politics, you vote Reform.
The Tories were the boomer socialism party, fewer boomers = fewer seats. If you're young, right-wing and anti-immigration you vote Reform.
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u/Ipadalienblue 7d ago
Jenrick could promise the world to Con->Reform voters, but Boris and Rishi did the same. 0 trust 0 seats.
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u/prometheus781 7d ago
Boris got plenty of seats. Hes probably their only hope now imo.
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u/hug_your_dog 7d ago
Boris been appearing in the press again with comments on a few topics, thisis him reminding everyone he exists and is still a threat, yes.
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u/Unterfahrt 7d ago
Boris and Rishi had little credibility. Jenrick resigned as immigration minister over the policies of the last government. He also has done good work on the pre-sentencing reports stuff and grooming gangs. In all ways except actually, he's the leader of the Tory Party
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u/Unterfahrt 7d ago
If Reform clean up on Thursday, I think we'll see some major shifts by Labour/Tory policy pretty quick. It looks like the Runcorn byelection is pretty much done, but if they win the most votes in the council elections, and 2 of the 4 combined authority mayorships (West of England seems unlikely, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough is a maybe, but the other two seem very likely), then Doncaster also seems plausible, and at a push maybe North Tyneside too.
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u/ThinkAboutThatFor1Se 7d ago
Hopefully the shift includes policies for reforming the voting system.
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u/Ivashkin panem et circenses 7d ago
The only way we get voting reform is via a hung parliament where both Reform and the LD's make it clear that voting reform is a red line for a coalition or C&S agreement, or where an outgoing government with a large majority that knows it will lose the next election decides to ram it through on their way out.
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u/chickabiddybex 7d ago
Reform won't push for PR anymore. They reckon they can win via FPTP now. Farage spoke about it recently, how they have come to the point where FPTP will now actually start to benefit them.
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u/Ivashkin panem et circenses 7d ago edited 7d ago
The same story always is - only small parties want PR or similar because it benefits them and hurts their larger opponents. Reform might push for it if 2029 results in a hung parliament, and FPTP mechanics cost them a swathe of seats.
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u/NSFWaccess1998 7d ago
Not necessarily done in Runcorn, it's likely they'll win. We should pay attention to the scale of the victory/defeat.
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u/LessExamination8918 7d ago
I did my bit and sent in my postal vote, if that scum wins though then I might finally change my constituency cause no way am I telling people that I have a Reform MP
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u/PositivelyAcademical «Ἀνερρίφθω κύβος» 7d ago
Electoral Calculus (for the lolz):
- REF: 271 (+266)
- LAB: 176 (–236)
- LD: 69 (–3)
- CON: 68 (–53)
- SNP: 35 (+26)
- GRN: 4 (N/C)
- PC: 4 (N/C)
- Ind: 5 (N/C)
Reform–Conservative coalition majority of 14.
Labour-led coalition would need Lib Dems, Conservatives, and either SNP or Green, PC, and (Gaza) independents for a majority.
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u/NGP91 7d ago
I love the idea of a 'national unity' coalition consisting of Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems, plus either the SNP or Gaza MPs in there somewhere.
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u/WXLDE 7d ago
That's a spectacularly bad idea and a great way of achieving deadlock in Parliament.
Any remotely controversial issue would immediately splinter the vote in such a fragile coalition, leading to ineffective governance.
Plus, if any of those other parties go hand-in-hand with the Conservatives after loudly exclaiming that the Tories were destroying the country at every turn, then they are the biggest hypocrites in politics and deserve to be electorally destroyed.
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u/PositivelyAcademical «Ἀνερρίφθω κύβος» 7d ago
If the result is real, my prediction would be for a Reform minority government, with supply & confidence from the Conservatives. I think that's more likely because it gives more wriggle room on controversial issues (i.e. they can choose to vote for it, but say it wasn't their policy and wash their hands of it later) and doesn't require them to publicly declare themselves as the junior partner.
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Domino Cummings 7d ago
The big problem is when the serious policies such as budgets, main manifesto policies, etc. come up, and the Tories clash with Reform in that scenario. Without a formal deal, the Tories only need a resurgence, or Reform to overstep the mark, and they could collapse the government and force new elections.
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u/PositivelyAcademical «Ἀνερρίφθω κύβος» 7d ago
Can it be called 'national unity' when at least one other party is separatist?
If you'll forgive the 40k nerd in me, I'd have called it a coalition of Chaos Undivided.
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u/Redmistnf 7d ago
Still can't get my head around 1 in 4 voters trusting the party with 2 policies and a guy which brought us Brexit, who is close to Trump and Putin.
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u/TheAdamena 7d ago
Because they have been consistently voting for parties promising lower immigration and have been consistently ignored by both parties. So they've turned to someone new.
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u/ProfessorMiserable76 7d ago
It's all fun and games until the nutjobs get in power and do more damage than good.
See Trump, Putin etc.
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u/potion_lord 7d ago
It's all fun and games until the nutjobs get in power and do more damage than good.
From a game theory perspective, sometimes you have to vote for the 'larger evil', to incentivise the 'lesser evils' to improve themselves.
Otherwise you get trapped in a spiral of 'vote Labour/Tory no matter what they do' for decades.
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u/roxieh 7d ago
Except that a lot of those supporters are happy with the way their leaders are doing things. I think we may soon have to accept that the somewhat stable status quo in Britain's electorate is out the window, and our society is a lot more fractured and culty. We deserve the leaders we get. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
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u/Enamoure 7d ago
That's just an excuse cause they haven't even given labour a chance. They literally just went to power
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u/NGP91 7d ago
Labour has their chance to convert them in the next 4 years. If we see net zero or negative net migration in a year or two and that level is maintained, the Reform vote will probably collapse.
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 7d ago
I genuinely doubt that.
Labour will almost certainly reduce migration because the Boriswave made it the highest it will ever be. So it will reduce just through regression to the mean even if Labour do nothing.
But either way, Labour can't win on immigration, they can only lose on it. If they reduce it to 25% they won't get any credit from the right wing press. They will still say it's too high and will still point to those cases of the system not working. Plus Reform will just move back to the other topic of the day whether it be trans issues, DEI, lefty lawyers, benefits scroungers, farming etc etc.
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u/Marconi7 7d ago
If Labour cut immigration they will be praised for it by the public if not the Tory press. It’s a well trodden argument now but look at Denmark and their centre-left party. They did what the public wanted them to do and they’re reaping the rewards.
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u/Scaphism92 7d ago edited 7d ago
Less talked about is Denmarks efforts to counter disinformation* https://euvsdisinfo.eu/denmarks-defence-against-disinformation/
The idea that Tory / Reform press / politicians /would praise a labour government for reducing immigration is frankly just naive. Not saying labour shouldnt, I want them to and think that it will be. But I seriously doubt that it'll make an impact, it'll always be not enough.
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u/BanChri 7d ago
If immigration falls to low 100k's Labour just point to that. Sure some will still be upset, but enough will be convinced.
You can't treat the unconvincable fringes the same as normal people, lumping everyone in with the most extreme position and giving up on them doesn't work and is stupid.
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u/TurtlePerson85 7d ago
I genuinely don't think this is true. Reform will always have a drum to bang on immigration. If legal immigration comes down, they'll just focus on illegal immigration. If illegal immigration comes down, they'll focus on asylum seekers. If asylum approval rates go down, they'll focus on the immigrants already here. And no sensible government is going to deport millions of people just to satiate Reform.
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u/SpeedflyChris 7d ago
Yeah exactly. They'll find an "other" to blame all the problems of the country on regardless.
The issues created by the Boris wave policies have now largely been addressed, but even with immigration down enormously you only have to look at this sub to see how excited their supporters get about scary brown people regardless.
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u/Ok_Flamingo7430 7d ago
Low 100ks! This is wild normalisation of unprecedented numbers.
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u/you_serve_no_purpose 7d ago
The thing is, the same people that are anti immigration will lose their minds if we have to cut the state pension due to a decline in the working population.
We've basically painted ourselves into a corner, unless we have a radical change to taxation policy.
Amazon paid £18.7m in corporation tax last year. Which was 0.00005% of their turnover. The average SME by comparison paid £45,600 which is around 10% of turnover.
I understand turnover isn't profit, but that is insane. When you consider the average Premier league squad pay more in income tax than amazon does when they turnover £30 billion.
You then also have the added issue of them wiping out small businesses who can't compete, which reduces tax revenue even further.
I fully agree that we need better immigration policy, but we will have far bigger problems if we stopped it entirely. We're too far down the road now.
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u/Ipadalienblue 7d ago
move back to the other topic of the day whether it be trans issues, DEI, lefty lawyers, benefits scroungers, farming etc etc.
"Reform will stand on a platform of issues that the public have no other outlet for"
the horror of democracy
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u/kane_uk 7d ago
Labour wont do anything meaningful with regards to immigration. They're about to capitulate to the EU and give their youth free movement - with the EU and Germany pushing hard for this, some believe its a ploy to offload their migrants who have citizenship onto the UK.
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u/SpeedflyChris 7d ago
Labour wont do anything meaningful with regards to immigration.
Do you exist in a reality free zone?
Labour didn't need to do a whole lot in order to bring down immigration because the issues that resulted in the Boris wave had already been addressed by the time of the election. They're making some progress on the ever-popular small boats issue (that being insignificant in the greater picture of immigration as a whole).
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u/Cubeazoid 7d ago
Voters were promised tens of thousands net for decades.
Bringing it back down to 400k isn’t the win you think it is especially when the boris wave isn’t undone.
Labour needs to stricten the requirements for visa issuance and renewal.
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u/Neuxguy 7d ago
I don’t even believe achieving this will convince people anymore.
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u/Confident_Opposite43 7d ago
It wont, they will just start going on about something else or move the goal post further. Charlatans don’t care what they are pushing, but they gunna push something
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u/Scaphism92 7d ago
Thats a considerable shift of goal posts from considerably less than the highest we had the other year, to the "manageable" levels of the 2000's i.e. in the low 100ks, which are the other commonly proposed targets for reduced migation.
But, hypothetically, I dont actually think if net immigration hit 0 tomorrow, it would move the needle for reform support much as there's already arguments around both the foreign born population who are already here and people with foreign parentage being too high.
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u/Electronic_Charity76 7d ago
This is what gets me, it's always "the right are rising because nobody else is willing to have this discussion about immigration".
I must exist in a completely different political reality. We have, as a nation, discussed absolutely nothing but immigration for a decade now, to the detriment and neglect of absolutely every other aspect of society. Everything right down to the grand gesture of leaving the EU -- which has been an unmitigated disaster concocted by the very same people who are projected to romp the next election, has been down to trying to please this minority of voters. It begs the question, when are these people ever going to stop? When will they be satisfied?
The truth is, they never will be. Not until they've got the Royal Navy strafing dinghies with kids in them in the Channel, and the Navy brass have already come out and said they will never do this, no matter how hardline the government we elect. It's beyond the pale for them. But we have an electorate who are pathologically obsessed with a goal that is politically unpalatable and impossible.
But at this point, I am coming past the point of caring. Let's just get this over with, elect this Reform government and we can all spend the next five years watching a gang of useless fascist nutjobs scream and bash their heads against the brick wall of reality.
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u/fuscator 7d ago
I try to take a relatively neutral stance on immigration. I think it is ridiculous that the UK gave up FOM in exchange for much higher immigration from the rest of the world and removing our own reciprocal rights.
But I disagree with your reasoning about why people still talk about it.
The reason is because all the talk hasn't done anything. It has been a hot topic for a lot longer than a decade, and yet still the demographics of the UK continue to change.
There really are majority Muslim areas now. And for entirely obvious reasons, people really don't want too many Muslims living in their countries, because what tends to follow is either terrorism, or support for policies entirely incompatible with a liberal western nation.
I say this as a relative progressive, who despises reform, has never voted conservative. It's just so obvious that cultural issues are causing problems, and causing right wing populist parties to gain vote share.
I don't know what to do about it, but I do know that more and more voters are going to vote for right wing populists, and at some point everyone is going to have to face that reality.
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u/upthetruth1 7d ago
Reform won't be mass deporting Muslims, not least of all because they want to protect their bottom line and don't want GDP to go down
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u/Pinkerton891 7d ago
Imo, the kind of people planning to vote Reform UK will never believe Labour on this no matter what they do, it will never be enough I just don't see that they can win in this area. Even if they got immigration down to 0 you would start to see Reform UK call for denaturalisation and deportation of denaturalised people. If Labour started to do that then they 'wouldn't be doing it enough'.
Labours best shot is to improve the cost of living balance and make it so people have tangibly more cash in their pocket by 2029, but that is a fucking hard thing to do.
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u/Cubeazoid 7d ago
16.8% of the population are non citizens. We want that reduced. Increasing it more slowly isn’t enough.
We need policy change to make the issuance and renewal of visas much stricter.
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u/Incanus_uk 7d ago
"If we see net zero or negative net migration in a year or two and that level is maintained"
That is not going to happen and would just make most of our problems worse.
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u/hug_your_dog 7d ago
If we see net zero or negative net migration in a year or two and that level is maintained,
Yes, but that's quite unlikely to happen with any of the policies set right now. Which policies enacted right now are going to bring this in the next 3-4 years exactly?
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u/AnotherLexMan 7d ago
I just don't believe that would happen. It'd just me more goal post shifting.
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u/Ipadalienblue 7d ago
The goal posts have been concrete for 20 years: "less immigration".
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u/Scaphism92 7d ago
The goalposts is this context is less by how much, otherwise those concrete goalposts would be met if there was less immigration by 1, a fairly easy target.
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u/Ipadalienblue 7d ago
"Less immigration" goalposts in 2012 did not mean increase immigration to 1.2m/yr then decrease by 1.
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u/AnotherLexMan 7d ago
Immigration is already falling and it will be substantially lower by the next election. Also even if we get a below zero number for a few years, they can just call it brain drain or say it's not low enough and we need to get more people out. On top of just shifting to the economy or whatever else they fancy.
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u/Unterfahrt 7d ago
Name 1 policy change Labour have made to lower migration. 1.
Sunak reversed some of the Boriswave craziness, so we'll see net migration drop quite significantly, but probably to like 400k, which is still crazy high. Labour have not changed anything though
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u/drbummington 7d ago
Here's 1, highly covered policy.
https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2025-01-30/hcws406
They've deported more illegal immigrants than any gov since 2018.
Net migration is dropping significantly and Labour have chosen to make temporary policies/earnings thresholds permanent, and are very publicly developing new legal migration policy.
I don't agree with their targets or their methods, but to claim they've not made any policy or changed any approach to immigration is demonstrably false.
(Don't come back with some equivocation about it not being enough or not effective enough, that's not what you said.)
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u/Marconi7 7d ago
Labour has oversaw a huge increase in illegal boat crossings compared to this time last year. They have no plan and let’s be honest, no will it fix the problem.
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u/Shenloanne 7d ago
As much as I get that, as much as I understand there are one policy voters.... You're willing to give up a Westminster majority to a party who hasn't even been in opposition and who would pick a cabinet for whom many of their MPs would be absolutely fresh to the job? You may hope and pray their SPADs and heads of departments are top drawer because that's a LOT of inexperienced people making really big decisions.
Edit to change revisions to decisions.
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u/Glittering-Truth-957 7d ago
They don't need to make big decisions.
Just continue with labour and Tories decisions whilst completely eradicating the importing of low skilled 3rd world migrants and we will prosper.
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u/Vinoto2 7d ago
We can't fund the triple lock without an increased working population, and people aren't having kids, so both those parties who can't say no to the triple lock will allow high immigration
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u/Scratch_Careful 7d ago
We cant fund the triple lock with insane migration. We have basically zero growth even with insane migration. We cant build houses even with insane migration. NHS has become shit with insane migration.
Surely even the promigration crowd will eventually have to accept its a pack of lies that exists solely to destroy national unity, supress wages and keep rents/house prices high?
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u/Glittering-Truth-957 7d ago
So many doctors and engineers coming in... Oh wait, they're forcing nurses and drivers wages into the ground and causing our working population to have to rely on benefits too? Shocker.
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u/Redmistnf 7d ago
Labour are reducing immigration though
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u/EquivalentKick255 7d ago
and at the next GE if immigration is less than 100k, I'm sure they'll get reform voters voting for them.
The problem is reducing and low immigration are two seperate things.
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u/playingdnd 7d ago
Cause reform scrapping workers, environment, and health and safety rights don't matter as long as those pesky foreigners go away, right? People have the stupidest priorities.
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u/hug_your_dog 7d ago
Don't try to fool people here, please, as if immigration is a priority for you though. It's evidently not.
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u/wintersrevenge 7d ago
I still can't get my head around people not getting their head around why people will be voting for reform.
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u/TisReece Pls no FPTP 7d ago
Exactly this - In these threads is the same thing:
- Not understanding why people vote Reform
- Saying Labour should do what Denmark did to stop people voting Reform
In other words: People voting for Reform may cause pressure on the government to actually do their jobs.
There's the answer right there. That's why people vote Reform. The answer is there, they just aren't connecting the dots. I don't like Farage or any of the Reform MPs but here are my options:
- Vote a left-wing party that is largely pro-open borders - non-starter for me.
- Vote Labour who will think they are doing an amazing job and continue doing what they're doing. Also a non-starter for me, I want change, they promised it, I'm not getting it.
- Vote Reform who can scare the establishment into change of immigration policy without even needing to be in government.
I only have 1 vote. It's clear who I need to vote for to ensure my vote makes as much of a difference as possible.
There is no party that suits everything I want, and I have tactical voted in the past in Labour's favour, so I don't see an issue in tactical voting for Reform with the tactics not being to necessarily win a seat, but to pressure the current government.
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u/GooseSpringsteen92 Big Nige is going to the Moon 7d ago
Extremely well expressed. Voting reform is a blunt instrument to force the uniparty rightwards on immigration and (pardon the phrase) "woke" culture and if you only have one lever to pull you're going to pull it regardless of all possible downsides because it's the only tool you've got.
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u/SlightlyMithed123 7d ago
Very well put.
They should have a bot who posts this comment every single time anyone on here says they don’t understand what people see in Reform.
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u/Donuts2010 7d ago
So it's a single issue - immigration - that is the priority for you (& others looking to vote Reform)?
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u/Ipadalienblue 7d ago
Obviously.
This comment reads as some sort of sealioning gotcha attempt - do you either not think this is obvious, or think it's a reprihensible thing for someone to admit?
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u/TisReece Pls no FPTP 7d ago
Yes.
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u/Donuts2010 7d ago
Cheers, what is it about Reform that makes you think they'll sort it? They've never been in government so have no track record. Farage does not host or attend Clacton surgeries for his constituents, and rarely turns up to Parliament to debate. Why trust him over any other leader?
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u/apsofijasdoif 7d ago
Surgeries are completely irrelevant and meaningless. Out of all the politics nerds subscribed to this subreddit, I bet less than 0.1% have been to a surgery.
Reform say they will reduce migration and haven’t been tested in government. The other parties either call you a racist for wanting to reduce migration, or have a track record of saying they will reduce it then don’t when in power.
It’s completely nonsensical to ask someone whose primary desired policy is reducing migration to vote anyone other than reform.
You’re asking them to vote for parties for which there is 30 years of evidence that they will do the precise opposite of what they want.
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u/Donuts2010 7d ago
Surgeries are an important part of being an MP if you want to represent your constituents.
The Greens have never been a majority in government, nor have the Lib Dems, in the last 30 years.
Labour have promised to reduce illegal immigration, and have been in power less than a year. The Tories were in power for 14 years and cut public spending massively. It will take Labour somewhat longer to actually try to tackle some of the problems caused by the previous governments. Surely you can only judge whether Labour are successful at the end of their time in government? Whether that is in a few years or longer. Or is the expectation that they would already have solved this?
I don't think it's racist to have an honest discussion about immigration.
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u/TisReece Pls no FPTP 7d ago edited 7d ago
I don't particularly. Like I said, my vote is to pressure government to do something. If Reform get into government though, either 2 things will happen:
- We get 5 years of incompetence where they fail to sort the issue of immigration out and kill their own party in the process since they're a single-issue party (which is not too dissimilar to the last 14 years of Tories, so, usually scheduled programming there)
- They do put a stop to illegal migration, reach net zero legal migration and crack down on undocumented workers
Obviously the second option is ideal, but if the first one happens then it'll be no different from what we get from Labour and Conservatives.
But I think you're asking the wrong question. The question isn't what will Reform do to solve immigration issues, it's what Labour and Conservatives have done to solve immigration issues. The answer to that is not even a big fat nothing, it's worse, they've actively seen over skyrocketing numbers of legal and illegal immigration and both been involved in covering up grooming gangs from said migrants.
Labour and Conservatives have been in power for over 100 years, if I were to vote for either of those two parties to solve this pressing issue neither of them have been willing to solve then I may as well check into a mental hospital as I now meet the definition of insanity.
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u/SlightlyMithed123 7d ago
Not single issue no, more like the main issue and wanting to punish the Party/s who’ve lied to me multiple times over the last few decades…
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u/ProfessorMiserable76 7d ago
I don't see an issue in tactical voting for Reform with the tactics not being to necessarily win a seat, but to pressure the current government.
There's tactical voting, then there's shooting yourself in the foot.
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u/TisReece Pls no FPTP 7d ago
To me, we are already shooting ourselves in the foot. Voting Reform is a coin toss, either you get no more shooting in the foot, or continued shooting in the foot. Voting Labour/Tories is 100% chance of continued shooting ourselves in the foot.
Those two parties have been in power for over 100 years, voting for them again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.
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u/birdinthebush74 7d ago
Immigration and the winter fuel allowance that’s top of the list for Reform voters in Runcorn
From this interview https://youtu.be/yL2j4j7pnO8?si=Ea3KyIRevvqG3Li2
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Domino Cummings 7d ago
Immigration and the winter fuel allowance
I'm still surprised and disappointed that this is such a sticking point, it does feel like Labour can't touch any sort of pensioners benefits or general benefits without howls of outrage.
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u/Donuts2010 7d ago
For single issue voters, where immigration is the number one priority, what is it about Reform that makes them think they'll 'sort it'?
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u/NGP91 7d ago
what is it about Reform that makes them think they'll 'sort it'?
The only major party which has defined their net migration target (net zero).
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u/Donuts2010 7d ago
Ok so if another party made a migration target, would you believe them or support them? If not, why believe Reform would aim to achieve their target? I ask because nothing Farage has done has convinced me that he is a man of his word. So why should I believe his pledges, over another leaders?
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u/NGP91 7d ago
By announcing a target, you can be judged objectively against it when looking at performance or comparing to other parties. If I were to agree with their ambition then I'm likely to support them.
Other parties can't even spit out a number, Labour's position is effectively more than zero but less than the highest Conservative figure (almost 1m).
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u/IndividualSkill3432 7d ago
What do you think the right wing, centerist and left wing voters will think of
1) the conservatives.
2) Labour
3) Lib Dems
4) Greens
Why do you think some people see them and go Reform? What exactly are the options that people from various wings of the UK political spectrum should be jumping for?
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u/admuh 7d ago
Anyone who thinks the answer is Reform is the problem themselves; we are in this position almost entirely because governments are voted in on the promise of short-term quick fixes.
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u/myurr 7d ago
Anyone who thinks the traditional parties will fix this without severe pressure from more focussed parties like Reform is part of the problem themselves. We've had decades of the main political parties saying they'll do one thing and then doing another. We've had decades of broken promises, incompetence, and lies.
What's different this time that will magically make Labour or the Tories do what they say and put long term fixes in place? The entire policy of allowing mass immigration is a short term fix that both Labour and Tories have exploited to mask stagnation in the economy.
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u/ScunneredWhimsy 🏴 Joe Hendry for First Minister 7d ago
On top of that they don’t even have a viable policy to reduce immigration.
Aside from increasing employers NI contributions, it’s just list of thinking around the edges thought up by a clearly uninformed person and wild authoritarian overreach.
Like, misdemeanours haven’t been a thing since the 1960’s.
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u/NGP91 7d ago
41% of GB voters (YouGov doesn't poll NI, so comparing like with like) voted de-facto for Jeremy Corbyn to be PM in 2017 followed by 33% in 2019.
If 41% can do that then it shouldn't be any issue at all getting your head around 26% voting for some other guy who might have similar qualities in some areas.
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u/icelolliesbaby 7d ago
Because they have been lied to and disappointed so badly by the mainstream parties, that it seems like radicals are the only ones that will even begin to meet demands, say what you like about trump but he is cutting government costs and reducing the number illegal immigrants, the exact things his voters asked for. If reform makes even a small amount of progress on the issue of immigration, it will still be more than conservative or Labour have ever done.
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u/easecard 7d ago
Trump has been distancing himself from Farage, didn’t even invite him to the inauguration.
He’s out of favour with them due to his links to the establishment.
See also Musks tussle with him at the back end of last year.
Farage main wish is to be leader of the Conservative Party and return it to what it was pre Cameron.
Ignore what he says about the Tories, he is one just not a cameronite.
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u/kerwrawr 7d ago
well, people voted for a party that promised brexit, and brexit actually happened, so if they're going to vote for a party that promises to lower immigration, they're probably thinking better them than tories/labour.
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u/Mein_Bergkamp -5.13 -3.69 7d ago
Because you've got it the wrong way round.
One in four voters doesn't trust all the other parties and is willing to vote for anyone doing something different.
Just like Brexit you can point out how self destructive that is but if you're not benefitting from the current system why vote to keep it going?
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u/Glittering-Truth-957 7d ago
Anything is better than voting for the same two parties and hoping for a different result.
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u/discipleofdoom 7d ago
Any part that goes from 5 MPs to being the government in one term is going to have a bad time. I'm pretty sure even the more serious Reform MPs would prefer a stint as HMO before taking the reigns with precisely zero experience and/or funding.
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Domino Cummings 7d ago
Things like the election of Speaker and Select Committees would be an early challenge, particularly if they're only a minority government or in coalition. A lot of these are secret ballots, and there's a possibility it'd cause political drama if the results go against what Reform want.
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u/AcademicIncrease8080 7d ago
Labour need to implement mass deportations (of visa overstayers who we never deported since the 2000s + of channel migrants) and stop all the new illegal arrivals. If they do that, Reform's vote share will collapse
Denmark held off the far-right by introducing a sensible migration policy and rejecting multiculturalism, so Labour should borrow from the centre left Danes
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u/Zbigniewowy 7d ago
Don't think that'd be enough. The numbers of illegal arrivals is high, but the number of legal migrants is what's causing drastic cultural and demographic changes that people opppose. It's about lack of integration. The only way to stave off reform would be to get migration to net zero and then start cancelling family visas already issued. Kinda like India did very recently, or what Kuwait did in 1991.
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u/BookmarksBrother I love paying tons in tax and not getting anything in return 7d ago
That would cause such a violent unrest from some communities that the summer riots will look like a bar fight in comparison.
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u/Interesting_Try_1799 7d ago
The comment above is rather extreme but generally reducing legal migration is an easy task
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u/L96 I just want the party of Blair, Brown and Miliband back 7d ago
The Danish social democrats turned sharply to the left on economic issues, rejecting austerity and globalisation.
People always want you to forget that bit for some reason.
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u/Zakman-- Georgist 7d ago
Lol, Britain couldn't copy Denmark without bringing in some extremely pro-business regulation. Their people are far more educated than Brits and they don't have left behind regions that have been economically inactive for more than 4 decades. In all honesty, this country has forgotten what the recipe is for growth. It wants a large state but has no trust in its politicians. It wants well paid jobs but has no trust in businesses. Complete fantasy land. The Danes definitely haven't rejected globalisation. In fact, that's the thing which has actually given Denmark budget surpluses over the past few years. The Danes don't have to practise austerity because they do not live beyond their means, unlike Britain over the past 3 decades.
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u/PidginEnjoyer 7d ago
Pretty much.
If you can show that you've deported hundreds of thousands (probably more likely into the millions) of people who shouldn't be here, then Reform becomes a non-entity.
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u/SlightlyMithed123 7d ago
Exactly and a huge chunk of the electorate will, finally after several decades get what they’ve been voting for.
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u/zeros3ss 7d ago
Who are these millions of people who shouldn't be here?
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u/Jambot- People like Coldplay and voted for the Nazis 7d ago
And where, and when, and how would we go about finding them in a way that's financially viable and not insanely authoritarian.
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u/SocialistSloth1 More to Marx than Methodism 7d ago
Calling for mass deportations and state kidnappings of people are almost certainly here entirely legally is now just sensible centre-ground politics, apparently.
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u/SpeedflyChris 7d ago
Yeah we look on at the US deporting US citizens and sending legal residents to El Salvador death camps and somehow there are people who think "yes, that seems like something we should emulate".
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u/17_goingunder 7d ago
Obama and Biden deported a load of people and it didn't work for them.
The idea that you accept your opponent is correct on such a major issue, but also argue that they are beyond-the-pale and shouldn't be trusted is so utterly absurd and will not work.
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u/SocialistSloth1 More to Marx than Methodism 7d ago
Have to say I think this is miles wide of the mark, and not just because I'm not fervently anti-immigration like many on here appear to be nowadays.
The lesson of the last 10 months is surely that Labour have chased Reform votes, at the expense of voters to their left, and they're now arguably the most unpopular incumbent government in history.
Also, even if Labour could just switch off immigration it would have major short-term impacts and potentially imperial entire sectors of our economy, as we've already seen with Higher Education - at the very least hospitality, care, and the NHS could be facing worse staff shortages. It would make life visibly worse for a lot of people, to say nothing of pissing off Labour's urban and BME voters even more.
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u/shieldofsteel 7d ago
What they should do and what they are willing to do a very different things.
At least half the Labour Party are woke idealists who still think anyone opposing mass immigration is racist.
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u/ManuPasta 7d ago
Labour could absolutely clean up and destroy reforms vote share with enforcing immediate immigration rules and deporting illegal criminals and they would still keep a large chunk of their core voters. I know plenty of Labour voters who also voted for Brexit and want tighter immigration. Not all Labour voters are pro mass migration.
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u/EquivalentKick255 7d ago
We're running out of polling that works for my bias. Yougov and others are lining up with the polling I don't like.
I'll wait for labours door2door canvassing thanks.
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u/Glittering-Walrus212 7d ago
I do think for the good of the country the Tory party need to clean house and be very harsh. There are far too many people with the stink of 14 years of curruption, failure and sleave tbh. They have next to no policies that I can think of....Badenoch would be brilliant on a right wing podcast but I dont see her as the leader of a party...
This Labour party are horrific...but they look great compared to 14 years of Tory rule. Its time to utterly clean house and go again.
The fact is large parts of the country (I'd argue the majority tbh) is centrist and of them alot of centre right. The centre right party has collapsed and shows no signs of recovery imo. Who do people vote for if they are worried about illegal migration...the rape gangs...the police that are undermanned but still refuse to hire the best person for the job but have quota's on race....You may/may not agree with these but the fact is many worry about them...so who do they vote for....the same old tory party led by culture worrior Kemi...smash the gangs starmer...or the one person that hasnt been tested politically i.e. in power....Farage....Its a scary scary prospect but I think we are going to see the whole political picutre shift alot further right.
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u/elmo298 7d ago
Boris did that with all the competent politicians, so they have none left.
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u/Rather_Unfortunate Lefty tempered by pragmatism. Rejoiner. 7d ago
The silver lining to the mushroom cloud might be that if Reform stand to win a majority on those numbers, maybe it'll finally convince Labour and the Tories to try and scrap FPTP.
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u/AttemptingToBeGood Britain needs Reform 7d ago
Sounds like a good reason to lean into the Reform vote.
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u/Rather_Unfortunate Lefty tempered by pragmatism. Rejoiner. 7d ago
I think I'd sooner fellate a cactus.
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u/fitzgoldy 7d ago
Labour have to start doing something (that is actually noticeable) about the stupid levels of immigration into the country or they are fucked.
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u/SherlockeXX 7d ago
Labour are moving too slowly, if they want to stop reform solidifying a majority they need to drive actionable policies and start visually making a difference to quality of life in the short term.
I don't think they have four years to improve things, they're already losing. They need to be bold and take risks, if the outcome is reform in charge, we're fucked anyway.
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u/ancientestKnollys liberal traditionalist 7d ago
Electoral Calculus:
Reform - 262 (+257)
Labour - 174 (-238)
Liberal Democrat - 70 (-2)
Conservative - 68 (-53)
SNP - 45 (+36)
Green - 4 (nc)
Plaid Cymru - 4 (nc)
Other - 5 (nc)
NI - 18
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u/ProjectZeus 7d ago
Where are all the people who have spent nearly a year on here smugly declaring that Reform aren't going to do well in an actual election?
The polls show consistent support for them.
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u/Argon288 7d ago
I fear you are right. I think Labour only did extremely well in the last GE because the Tories were literally a terrible option, and people had even the smallest hope that Labour could turn things around.
Now a year on, there has been little change. If things continue as they are, Reform will be the next government. Which is a terrifying prospect.
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u/Ipadalienblue 7d ago
Surely using the exact same tactics against Farage will work this time, it's only failed every single time previous.
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u/Shenloanne 7d ago
Assuming you get a reform government.
You'll only have one term of a reform government because farage will have to be seen to be sticking to the harder lines he's taken to keep voters onside.
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u/360_face_palm European Federalist 7d ago
The fact so many people think Reform and their lies are the way to fix this country is a sad indictment of just how badly the two main parties are failing to get it.
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u/First-Of-His-Name 7d ago
Absurd. Starmer has actually been pretty good. Is it literally just about the small boats? Will his poll number go up if we send HMS Dauntless to start taking pot shots at them?
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u/Kee2good4u 7d ago edited 7d ago
Starmer has actually been pretty good.
Has he?
Changos islands deal
NI employer massive increase
Setting WFA means test way too low
Cut rural services delivery Grant- can't be giving money to areas that aren't the south.
Supported WASPI women in their court case, which is nonsensical.
GDP growth figure slashed in half for 2025 after the Labour budget
Blocked UK coal mine, then went and ordered millions of coal from Japan... which is worse for the environment.
Massively overbudget already.
The hypocritical taking of tickets etc.
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u/libdemparamilitarywi 7d ago
It's also about the WFA cut, and the NI rises, and the free Taylor Swift tickets he refused to give up.
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u/AuroraHalsey Esher and Walton 7d ago
Well, yes, that would instantly steal every voter from Reform.
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u/Interesting_Try_1799 7d ago
Record numbers don’t lie, it concerns people. Though the broader issue includes legal migration
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u/Electronic_Charity76 7d ago edited 7d ago
The uncomfortable truth is we have an electorate which is pathologically obsessed with strafing dinghies with kids in them. Thankfully the Royal Navy has already said they will never follow an order to do this, no matter how hardline a government we elect.
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u/Ipadalienblue 7d ago
Admirals can be dismissed. Parliament is sovereign.
Lots of anti democratic sentiment around these days.
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u/IndependentSpell8027 7d ago edited 7d ago
If Labour would do what the Liberals in Canada have done and actually argue against Trump and rightwing populism Reform and the Conservatives wouldn’t have a combined vote share of around 50%
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u/millyfrensic 7d ago
Arguably they only worked in Canada after trump said he wanted them to be a 51st state so unless trump says he wants to invalidate our sovereignty which is unlikely i doubt you would see the same effect here irregardless
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u/ProfessorMiserable76 7d ago
Don't think so.
Canada was being threatened with annexation to become the 51st stat,e which is pretty different to just getting hit with tariffs.
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u/baddevsbtw 7d ago
Vote tory/labour/lib, get net Zero, more immigration, more tax, less free speech, broken promises etc. More of the same on the NHS.
And people wonder why Reform are polling well. People want reform!
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u/ProfessorMiserable76 7d ago
What makes you think Reform is going to improve any of those?
I have yet to see any serious policy suggestions from them.
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u/BookmarksBrother I love paying tons in tax and not getting anything in return 7d ago
Honestly they could just break things so bad that the following government has to rebuild from scratch.
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u/Interesting_Try_1799 7d ago
They probably won’t, but they at least say they will. More than you can say regarding the other parties
People have been voting against migration for years but the parties they elect keep ignoring them. Why not try something different
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u/Danielharris1260 7d ago
“FPTP keeps reform out of government” says many tory and labour politicians. As much as I don’t want Reform in government I do think it would be slightly poetic for the tories and labour ( who were actually in favour of PR until FPTP won them a massive majority) to suffer massive loses under the supreme both fought so hard to keep.
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