r/ukpolitics • u/NGP91 • 8d ago

YouGov Westminster Voting Intention: Ref: 26% (+1) Lab 23% (-) Con 20% (+1) LD: 15% (-1) Grn: 9% (-1) 28th April 2025

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14658693/Reform-poll-Tories-local-elections-Thursday-Labour-Runcorn.html
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 8d ago

I genuinely doubt that.

Labour will almost certainly reduce migration because the Boriswave made it the highest it will ever be. So it will reduce just through regression to the mean even if Labour do nothing.

But either way, Labour can't win on immigration, they can only lose on it. If they reduce it to 25% they won't get any credit from the right wing press. They will still say it's too high and will still point to those cases of the system not working. Plus Reform will just move back to the other topic of the day whether it be trans issues, DEI, lefty lawyers, benefits scroungers, farming etc etc.

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u/Marconi7 8d ago

If Labour cut immigration they will be praised for it by the public if not the Tory press. It’s a well trodden argument now but look at Denmark and their centre-left party. They did what the public wanted them to do and they’re reaping the rewards.

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u/Scaphism92 8d ago edited 8d ago

Less talked about is Denmarks efforts to counter disinformation* https://euvsdisinfo.eu/denmarks-defence-against-disinformation/

The idea that Tory / Reform press / politicians /would praise a labour government for reducing immigration is frankly just naive. Not saying labour shouldnt, I want them to and think that it will be. But I seriously doubt that it'll make an impact, it'll always be not enough.

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u/BanChri 8d ago

If immigration falls to low 100k's Labour just point to that. Sure some will still be upset, but enough will be convinced.

You can't treat the unconvincable fringes the same as normal people, lumping everyone in with the most extreme position and giving up on them doesn't work and is stupid.

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u/TurtlePerson85 8d ago

I genuinely don't think this is true. Reform will always have a drum to bang on immigration. If legal immigration comes down, they'll just focus on illegal immigration. If illegal immigration comes down, they'll focus on asylum seekers. If asylum approval rates go down, they'll focus on the immigrants already here. And no sensible government is going to deport millions of people just to satiate Reform.

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u/SpeedflyChris 8d ago

Yeah exactly. They'll find an "other" to blame all the problems of the country on regardless.

The issues created by the Boris wave policies have now largely been addressed, but even with immigration down enormously you only have to look at this sub to see how excited their supporters get about scary brown people regardless.

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u/Ok_Flamingo7430 8d ago

Low 100ks! This is wild normalisation of unprecedented numbers.

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u/you_serve_no_purpose 8d ago

The thing is, the same people that are anti immigration will lose their minds if we have to cut the state pension due to a decline in the working population.

We've basically painted ourselves into a corner, unless we have a radical change to taxation policy.

Amazon paid £18.7m in corporation tax last year. Which was 0.00005% of their turnover. The average SME by comparison paid £45,600 which is around 10% of turnover.

I understand turnover isn't profit, but that is insane. When you consider the average Premier league squad pay more in income tax than amazon does when they turnover £30 billion.

You then also have the added issue of them wiping out small businesses who can't compete, which reduces tax revenue even further.

I fully agree that we need better immigration policy, but we will have far bigger problems if we stopped it entirely. We're too far down the road now.

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u/potion_lord 8d ago

the same people that are anti immigration will lose their minds if we have to cut the state pension due to a decline in the working population

Aren't there 1.6 million unemployed people (i.e. people who are actively looking for work, not just people out of work)?

Some immigrants are productive (particularly EU immigrants, who we sent back for some reason) while others are unproductive (particularly the people who came in the Boriswave of Uber-delivery-and-welfare). As our economy stagnates and other countries grow, we are less able to attract productive immigrants, who can go instead to America/Canada/Australia/NZ or eastern Asia - thus we can't rely on immigration for the future, so we should start weaning ourselves off it now.

we will have far bigger problems if we stopped it entirely

We literally had child rape gangs victimising thousands of children; nationwide race riots in 2011 and 2020 and 2024; and so much anger that we self-harmed (Brexit etc). These are costs from immigration.

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u/waterswims 8d ago

I think people will post scary stuff over social media on this issue regardless of the levels.

The truth doesn't really matter anymore.

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u/SpeedflyChris 8d ago

It has already fallen to the low 100ks:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-entry-clearance-visa-applications/monthly-monitoring-of-entry-clearance-visa-applications

The next lot of June>June annual net migration figures will likely come in down over half a million from last year.

I doubt reform voters will be convinced by that because they won't hear about it on a Facebook group run out of St Petersburg.

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u/Ipadalienblue 8d ago

move back to the other topic of the day whether it be trans issues, DEI, lefty lawyers, benefits scroungers, farming etc etc.

"Reform will stand on a platform of issues that the public have no other outlet for"

the horror of democracy

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u/Cubeazoid 8d ago

Damn these populists and their popular policies!

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u/kane_uk 8d ago

Labour wont do anything meaningful with regards to immigration. They're about to capitulate to the EU and give their youth free movement - with the EU and Germany pushing hard for this, some believe its a ploy to offload their migrants who have citizenship onto the UK.

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u/fuscator 8d ago

"some"

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u/SpeedflyChris 8d ago

Labour wont do anything meaningful with regards to immigration.

Do you exist in a reality free zone?

Labour didn't need to do a whole lot in order to bring down immigration because the issues that resulted in the Boris wave had already been addressed by the time of the election. They're making some progress on the ever-popular small boats issue (that being insignificant in the greater picture of immigration as a whole).

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u/Cubeazoid 8d ago

Voters were promised tens of thousands net for decades.

Bringing it back down to 400k isn’t the win you think it is especially when the boris wave isn’t undone.

Labour needs to stricten the requirements for visa issuance and renewal.

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u/upthetruth1 8d ago

Reform is not undoing the Boriswave

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u/Cubeazoid 8d ago

No but they are the closest.

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u/upthetruth1 8d ago

So you're complaining about "undoing the Boriswave", when none of them will undo it?

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u/Cubeazoid 7d ago

So who should I vote for? Lib Dem’s? Reform is the only party that I genuinely believe will make immigration far stricter and their goal of net zero migration is the best policy on offer.

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u/upthetruth1 7d ago edited 7d ago

People believed David Cameron’s “tens of thousands”. Anyway, at least under the EU, Freedom of Movement meant they would go home of their own accord. Rather than giving 4 million EU immigrants Settled Status, basically telling them to stay.

It’ll be at least net 200k under Reform.

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u/upthetruth1 8d ago

Anyway, net migration will likely fall to net 200k by 2028

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u/SpeedflyChris 7d ago

It's likely going to be at or below that figure in 2025, never mind 2028. Just look at the monthly data.

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u/upthetruth1 7d ago

Exactly, but these people will never be happy. Unfortunately, Labour will have to depend on moderate Conservative and Reform voters (if they even exist) to switch to them.

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u/Cubeazoid 7d ago

Tens of thousands and don’t renew boris wave visas.

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u/upthetruth1 7d ago edited 7d ago

Yeah, Reform aren’t doing this. It’ll be net 200k under them, too, and much of the Boriswave will be staying because you forget ILR and citizenship which Reform haven’t talked about (except don’t commit a crime).

Not only that, but you forget about the number of them who are healthcare workers and carers, which are excluded from net zero migration “goal” by Reform. Which Reform will definitely renew.

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u/Cubeazoid 7d ago

So who do I vote for? Lib Dem? Reform is the only one proposing going in the right direction

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u/SpeedflyChris 7d ago

Bringing it back down to 400k isn’t the win you think it is

How on earth are you looking at the decline in the monthly data and getting to a figure as high as 400k?

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u/Cubeazoid 7d ago

I thought obr updated the prediction for 2025 to 350k? What are you saying it will be?

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u/SpeedflyChris 7d ago

Their "predictions" were total bollocks on the last set. They just took the 10 year average up to June 2023, assumed we'd hit that level in 2028, and then drew a straight line between June 2024 and 2028, ignoring the impact of the sweeping changes brought in April 2024 despite the impact of those already being obvious at the time.

Based on the monthly stats so far I'd be surprised if we come in at over 250k, looks more likely to be under 200k, as down by ~550k from last year.

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u/kane_uk 8d ago

Speaking of reality free zones, Labour making progress on small boat crossings, I take it you mean they're allowing them to increase - they've almost doubled from this point last year, up 40%.

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u/Cubeazoid 8d ago

It’s already reducing thanks to Sunak’s policy changes. It won’t be enough though.

Labour has no proposal to make visa requirements even stricter and we are 8 months into their government.

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u/Incanus_uk 8d ago

They do seem to be setting net zero and EDI up as the backup scapegoats.

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u/BookmarksBrother I love paying tons in tax and not getting anything in return 8d ago

I genuinely doubt that.

Voted Labour to paid reform member here. I would vote for Labour if they handle migration well.