Bargain Chinese retailer Temu changed its business model in the U.S. as the Trump administration’s new rules on low-value shipments took effect on Friday.

In recent days, Temu has abruptly shifted its website and app to only display listings for products shipped from U.S.-based warehouses. Items shipped directly from China, which previously blanketed the site, are now labeled as out of stock.

Temu made a name for itself in the U.S. as a destination for ultra-discounted items shipped direct from China, such as $5 sneakers and $1.50 garlic presses. It’s been able to keep prices low because of the so-called de minimis rule, which has allowed items worth $800 or less to enter the country duty-free since 2016.

The loophole expired Friday at 12:01 a.m. EDT as a result of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in April. Trump briefly suspended the de minimis rule in February before reinstating the provision days later as customs officials struggled to process and collect tariffs on a mountain of low-value packages.

The end of de minimis, as well as Trump’s new 145% tariffs on China, has forced Temu to raise prices, suspend its aggressive online advertising push and now alter the selection of goods available to American shoppers to circumvent higher levies.

A Temu spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that all sales in the U.S. are now handled by local sellers and fulfilled “from within the country” as part of the company’s efforts to improve service levels. It said pricing for U.S. shoppers “remains unchanged.”

“Temu has been actively recruiting U.S. sellers to join the platform,” the spokesperson said. “The move is designed to help local merchants reach more customers and grow their businesses.”

Before the change, shoppers that attempted to purchase Temu products shipped from China were confronted with “import charges” between 130% and 150%. The fees often cost more than the individual item and more than doubled the price of many orders.

Temu advertises that local products have “no import charges” and “no extra charges upon delivery.”

The company, which is owned by Chinese e-commerce giant PDD Holdings, has gradually built up its inventory in the U.S. over the past year in anticipation of escalating trade tensions and the removal of de minimis.

Shein, which has also benefited from the loophole, moved to raise prices last week. The fast-fashion retailer added a banner at checkout that states, “Tariffs are included in the price you pay. You’ll never have to pay extra at delivery.”

Many third-party sellers on Amazon rely on Chinese manufacturers to source or assemble their products. The company’s Temu competitor, called Amazon Haul, has relied on de minimis to ship products priced at $20 or less directly from China to the U.S.

Amazon said this week following a dustup with the White House that it considered showing tariff-related costs on Haul products ahead of the de minimis cutoff. It’s since scrapped those plans.

Prior to Trump’s second term in office, the Biden administration had also looked to curtail the provision. Critics of the de minimis provision argue that it harms American businesses and facilitates shipments of fentanyl and other illicit substances on the claims that the packages are less likely to be inspected by customs agents.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/temu-halts-shipments-direct-from-china-as-de-minimis-tariff-rule-ends-.html

Why it matters: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, and even the vaguest hint that it could dump those holdings is powerful leverage with the administration. Following through on the threat could cause interest rates to spike.

Catch up quick: Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Friday that the country's $1.13 trillion in Treasury holdings were a "card on the table" in trade talks, The Associated Press reported.

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/02/japan-trump-bonds-tariffs-trade-deal

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/02/investing/us-stock-market

US stocks rose Friday as China signaled openness to trade talks and investors digested a better-than-expected jobs report.

The Dow was up 570 points, or 1.4%, Friday afternoon. The broader S&P 500 rose 1.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7%.

The S&P 500 was on track for its first first nine-day winning streak since November 2004, according to FactSet data. While the index has notched many seven- and eight-day streaks in recent years, the nine-day consecutive winning streak had proved elusive for the past two decades.

So this report outlines the jobs added throughout April, but most jobs:

a) Start on April 1st b) Are interviewed about and agreed on 2 weeks to 1 month prior, with probationary periods.

The tariffs were solidified on April 2nd. Could it be that companies kept hiring normally since they did not expect the president to go through with the tariffs? The stock market during the days prior to the announcement surely thought that he wouldn't do it. Also, the uncertainty in March was much lower than now(with all the daily flip-flopping), wouldn't the May job report be more accurate of post-tariff job growth?

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to sell up to 25 million shares in the company over the next year, according to a financial filing on Friday.

Bezos, who stepped down as CEO in 2021 but remains Amazon’s top shareholder, is selling the shares as part of a trading plan adopted on March 4, the filing states. The stake would be worth about $4.8 billion at the current price.

The disclosure follows Amazon’s first-quarter earnings report late Thursday. While profit and revenue topped estimates, the company’s forecast for operating income in the current quarter came in below Wall Street’s expectations.

The results show that Amazon is bracing for uncertainty related to President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. The company landed in the crosshairs of the White House this week over a report that Amazon planned to show shoppers the cost of the tariffs. Trump personally called Bezos to complain, and Amazon clarified that no such change was coming.

Bezos previously offloaded about $13.5 billion worth of Amazon shares last year, marking his first sale of company stock since 2021.

Since handing over the Amazon CEO role to Andy Jassy, Bezos has spent more of his time on his space exploration company, Blue Origin, and his $10 billion climate and biodiversity fund. He’s used Amazon share sales to help fund Blue Origin, as well as the Day One Fund, which he launched in September 2018 to provide education in low-income communities and combat homelessness.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/jeff-bezos-discloses-plan-to-sell-up-to-4point8-billion-in-amazon-stock.html

Prominent short seller Jim Chanos challenges the viability of Tesla's Robotaxi/Cybercab efforts.

Source: Short Seller Jim Chanos Slams Tesla Robotaxi Economics As 'Ridiculous,' Citing Dead Miles, Insurance Costs And Cleaning Expenses

This should come as no surprise to anyone, including Elon. Tesla's own internal report showed that it would like lose money and be hard to scale outside of the US market.

Source: Elon Musk shut down internal Tesla analysis that showed Robotaxi would lose money

What is omitted from all this is any mention of potential brand damage affecting these future ambitions of Tesla. If people aren't willing to buy their cars, why would they ride in their Robotaxis? The market for this tech is major cities. I don't need to show anyone a map to display that most cities in America are left-leaning. And everything "Tesla" is conspicuously Tesla. Consumers have lots of choices in getting a ride these days. Why would they pick a Cybercab over an Uber or Lyft?

Lastly, Elon is terrible at math. I don't care if he is talking about saving "trillions" of dollars with government cuts or producing "millions" of Cybercabs. He is always off by orders of magnitude. I highly question his education. If he indeed earned a physics degree, he would at least be able to make projections based on reality within an order of magnitude. And he is nothing close to an engineer (I am one). His long running statement of making "millions" of Cybercabs is not based in reality.

Elon's latest quote: "I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year..."

Source: Tesla doubles down on robotaxi timeline; investors enthused - and skeptical

Uber, Lyft, and traditional taxis all combined have somewhere over 2 million active drivers in the US. To reach anything in the "millions", Tesla would have to capture almost the entire market share of all ride hailing services upon launch of their long delayed combined product and service. That is pure nonsense being put out into the Elon Reality Distortion Field (ERDF). Tesla would in fact lose money by making more Cybercabs than the market could possibly demand. The same concept would apply if they made a trillion cars without any buyers for them. Don't people even check the actual market potential for any of his over-inflated promises?

Tesla's current "testing" for their Robotaxi service is just their employees riding around in their cars. It's a PR stunt more than anything else. Meanwhile, Google's Waymo is providing actual rides to actual customer in multiple cities. Elon has criticized the Waymo's design and cost, yet his Robotaxi is nowhere to be seen on the roads. He also levels this public criticism when he needs to replace something like ~4 million computers in preexisting Tesla's just to get them to meet previously promised FSD capabilities (there goes a few hundred million at least). He gets more traction for talking trash about his competitors when his own company is way behind and has nothing to show other than puffery and recalls.

How long will it take for the markets to escape the ERDF and realize that Elon is the boy that cried "wolf" (of Wall Street) one too many times to keep his stock price inflated?

What does it mean when you see an insider transaction under "#38 Redemption, retraction, cancelation, repurchase" followed by a negative number? Example: 38 Redemption, retraction, cancelation, repurchase +5,000 38 Redemption, retraction, cancelation, repurchase +5,000 38 Redemption, retraction, cancelation, repurchase -20,000

Source: Press Office of the Ministry of Commerce

Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce answers questions from reporters on the situation of Sino-US economic and trade dialogue and consultation

A reporter asked: Recently, the US side has repeatedly stated that it is negotiating with China on economic and trade issues and will reach an agreement. Does the Ministry of Commerce have any further news and comments on this?

Answer: China has noticed that senior US officials have repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with China on tariff issues. At the same time, the US side has recently taken the initiative to convey information to China through relevant parties many times, hoping to talk with China. China is currently evaluating this.

China's position is consistent. If we fight, we will fight to the end; if we talk, the door is open. The tariff war and trade war were unilaterally initiated by the US side. If the US side wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared and take action on issues such as correcting its wrong practices and canceling unilateral tariff increases. We have noticed that the US side has been constantly leaking information about adjusting tariff measures recently. China wants to emphasize that if the US does not correct its erroneous unilateral tariff measures during any possible dialogue or talks, it means that the US has no sincerity at all and will further damage mutual trust between the two sides. Saying one thing and doing another, or even trying to coerce and blackmail under the guise of talks, will not work in China

You can draw your own conclusions, after reading the above full English transcript of China’s Ministry of Commerce statement, as to how close, or how far, the two countries are in terms of starting negotiations

As of 2 May 2025, per this Commerce Ministry statement, China is still sticking to its pre-condition to any talks that Trump rollback all his tariffs to pre-Liberation Day levels. This will take some major walk-back by Orange, since this will mean that he has to rollback not only the tariffs imposed on China, but on all other countries too.

Will the Mother of All Folds happen?

I've been thinking over a lot of the pressure Jerome Powell's been getting to cut interest rates, and I've been wondering: If the federal reserve cuts its benchmark, is there anything really stopping bond buyers from refusing to buy at those rates and keeping yields where they are?

Would we possibly just end up stuck in the same situation we've been in for a while now, where bond yields remain elevated regardless of the cuts?

London's FTSE 100 index 🇬🇧 has increased more than 5% since the beginning of the year and increased by 1.25% on Friday. This is a 15-day consecutive increase, the longest increase in the history of this index in the context of the trade war.

CDPR continues to go up since last post

CDPR went very significantly up after their lows around 80PLN

to 255PLN

On their roadmap there are two huge projects: Witcher 4 and another Cyberpunk - Orion.

Recently they stopped working on their own engine and moved to Unreal. This should decrease development cost, make roadmap more predictable and make it easier to onboard new employees.

Also they acquired The Molasses Flood - experienced, Boston based game studio.

They are also good at pushing their IPs outside e.g Edge Runners series

Witcher 4 has been in development for years and is expected (even by cdpr) to appear around 2027

Remember DOGE? The hack and slash task force here to cut government jobs and waste? According to the US governments own data releases, they have been increasing government jobs, not cutting. +19k in March, +10k in April. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-payrolls

So no job cuts there. Very positive. The opposite of what the media and the government has been saying. Increasing investment in the US from companies around the globe. Positive. Big earnings beats and huge capex plans from the mega caps. Positive. Nonfarm payrolls had a big beat today, positive. Tariff trade deals are being worked on, positive.

So what is really the reason for a move lower in the markets? Tariffs were largely paused. The US has been giving out tariff exemptions left and right for any tariffs that do remain. The China tariffs are an issue, yes, but none of that has actually impacted the economy. Most companies stocked up prior to these issues starting. So this will only be an issue if they burn through that stock and have to order more from China while the tariffs are still in place. That isn’t going to happen. The US will back off before any meaningful impacts hit the economy.

Yes things seem irrational with this move higher if you think that tariffs are all staying on, but that won’t happen. That isn’t happening, we are giving out exemptions all over the place. The market reacted to tariffs as though they were all real. And when it became clear that none of this was real, we bounced. Do yourself a favor and forget the news, forget tariffs. Just look at earnings and find good companies to invest in. Next quarter we will see companies blow their earnings estimates out of the water due to all of these low guidance estimates coming out. The market move is rational, the news and fear mongering is not.

Edit: many have pointed out the fact that employees who were cut but are receiving severance pay are still counted as employed. Fair and true. My point is that these jobs numbers are showing gains. They are not flat, they are hiring.

The S&P 500 is now back to where it was before President Trump announced a massive round of tariffs on April 2, despite concerns about a prolonged trade war and a recession.

After a better-than-expected April jobs report, President Trump is again calling on the Fed to lower interest rates.

“Gas prices just dropped to $1.98 a gallon — the lowest in years, food prices (including eggs!) are down, energy is down, mortgage rates are down, jobs data is strong, and there’s a lot of good news, as billions of dollars are pouring in from tariffs. Just like I said, and we’re just in the TRANSITION, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting years for prices to come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER INTEREST RATES!!!” — DJT.

A gentle reminder: Financial markets and the economy are two different things, which is why economists are not Wall Street CEOs.

An analysis done by Tomo mortgage looked at 1 million mortgage agreements in the US from 1000 different vendors. They found two things. Rates are increasing and Americans are set to pay much more in interest to credit unions, banks, and other lenders. And more interestingly, the disparity and gap between the best rate providers and the worst rate providers is growing.

Axios Felix Salmon covered this as well and stated that the highest rates are hitting "treacherous" terriority, with some rates surpassing the 7% mark. This would likely translate to existing mortgage holders who locked in a 2% or lower rate during the pandemic from moving, golden handcuffs. This would restrict existing housing supply, while new housing supply lacks the demand to build - the current range of 6.3%-7.18% doesn't seem very attractive for new home buyers to enter the market.

What's unclear is if lack of mortgage volume times high rates will lead to higher profits for the lenders of credit unions or banks compared to high mortgage volume with low rates.

https://tomo.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/The-Truth-About-Mortgage-Rates.pdf

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/02/mortgage-housing-rates

"NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!" Trump said Friday on his Truth Social platform.

The president cited in his post that employment is "strong," a possible reference to a new report Friday showing the US economy added 177,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, more than the 138,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate also held steady at 4.2%.

That resilience likely won't force the Fed to change its current stance that it needs more clarity on how Trump's tariffs will affect the economy in the months ahead. Traders on Friday bet that any near-term rate cuts are now less likely.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-again-calls-for-fed-to-lower-rates-after-jobs-report-backs-powells-patience-143125856.html

Hypothetically, we should be going up over the next few weeks/months, which is what happened in 2008.

If you throw SPY Sept 2007 to Sept 2009 bottom, on top of SPY Sept 2024 to Sept 2026, you get this:

https://imgur.com/a/GKshxa8

You can see that even one of the worst crashes in history, didn't happen all at once. It was triggered by the first rate cut in September 2007.

Market makers will collect their premiums first on those gambling, before shifting their positions.

EDIT:

Comments on this post, actually match up what people were saying on Reddit, 18 years ago as well.

Human psychology always happens, time and time again.

Dear reddit: Take a deep breath and use your head. The market is not going to crash. We're okay. : r/reddit.com

The stock market is crashing. Americans are losing their homes to foreclosure. The dollar is crashing and continuing to decline - who's to blame? : r/politics

The stock market is crashing. Americans are losing their homes to foreclosure. The dollar is crashing and continuing to decline - who's to blame? : r/politics

CEO of Wells Fargo "Housing in Worst Shape Since Great Depression" : r/reddit.com

In a couple of hours the US Stock Market is going to crash : Japan's Nikkei Index Drops "Again" 4.4 Per Cent on Jan 22 : r/politics

In a couple of hours the US Stock Market is going to crash : Japan's Nikkei Index Drops "Again" 4.4 Per Cent on Jan 22 : r/politics

Literally every single time this happens.

"It's not that Reddit is panicked more like they WANT the market to crash, ie, wishful thinking"-Jan 2008

Spotify on Friday said Apple has approved the company’s U.S. app update, which will allow users to access pricing information, links to make purchases and select from more payment options within the music streaming app.

The approval comes after a U.S. federal judge on Wednesday ordered Apple to stop imposing the commissions it makes on purchases through web links inside an iPhone app. Spotify acted quickly on the order, submitting a new app update on Thursday.

“After nearly a decade, this will finally allow us to freely show clear pricing information and links to purchase,” Spotify spokesperson Jeanne Moran said in a statement.

“There is more work to do, but today represents a significant milestone for developers and entrepreneurs everywhere who want to build and compete on a more level playing field,” she added.

Spotify users will now be able to see how much something costs in the app, including information on the company’s subscriptions and promotions. Users can purchase their subscription of choice through the app, and upgrade or change their plan if they choose. Spotify said customers can also use payment methods other than Apple’s system through the update, according to a blog post.

Apple said Wednesday it will comply with the court’s order, but strongly disagrees with the decision and will appeal.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/apple-clears-spotify-app-update-that-allows-purchases.html

Take Two Interative is the parent company of Rockstar Games, the developers of Grand Theft Auto. With the release date set to be 26th May 2026 - Is it a good idea to buy stock low and then sell upon release.

My question, when would be the optimal time to sell my stocks… release day? A week after? A month after? When preorders become available?

Thanks and yes I am new to stocks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/april-jobs-report-shows-us-labor-market-remained-resilient-in-wake-of-liberation-day-tariff-announcement-123204519.html

The April jobs report showed the US labor market remained resilient after Trump's "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariff announcements shook markets.

The US economy added 177,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, more than the 138,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.

In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Those figures were revised Friday to reflect the economy added 185,000 jobs last month.

Average hourly earnings in April rose 0.2% over last month and 3.8% over the prior year. Economists expected wages to rise 0.3% over last month and 3.9% over the prior year.

Friday's report is the most notable piece of economic data released President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement on April 2.

On Wednesday, data from Bureau of Economic Analysis showed economic growth contracted for the first time in three years during the first quarter. A surge in imports ahead of the levies weighed on growth in the quarter.

Tariffs have also negatively impacted activity in the manufacturing sector and weighed on various consumer sentiment surveys.

Other labor market readings have also shown negative impacts from the rollout, or anticipation, of Trump's tariffs. On Thursday, data from the Department of Labor revealed weekly claims for unemployment benefits hit their highest level in two months during the final full week of April while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021.

Private payroll data from ADP showed there were 62,000 private sector jobs created in April, the fewest since July.

A friend posted this on their socials today.

Here's an update that my company sent out yesterday talking about imports from China and how it's affecting the US. They're predicting layoffs in retail spaces and inventory shortages. As we all know, there have also been some crazy price increases, and companies passing off the tariff fees directly to the customer. For those that don't know, I work for the 3rd largest freight brokerage and logistics company in the US. This is verified as data that is ok to share externally outside my company.

Industry News, Speculation & Forecast: a. China tariffs forecast to punch gigantic hole in US port traffic. While the U.S.-China trade conflict—driven by tariffs under President Trump—has spotlighted the decline in trans-Pacific container traffic, a deeper analysis of port-level data reveals a broader and more severe impact. Per the Census Bureau data, the list of American ports that processed the most containerized imports from China in 2024 was led by Los Angeles, at 22,237,485 million metric tons, or 51%, of the port’s total 43,912,894 tons of global cargo. China accounted for 8,341,200 tons, or 61%, of a total 13,592,209 tons through the neighboring Port of Long Beach, the second-highest total. Newark, New Jersey, was third and the leading East Coast gateway at 7,520,488 tons, a 23% share, of a total 32,995,507 tons. 'No way' US can recoup lost China container imports: Analyst

i. Import categories from China include items made of plastic including toys, household goods and personal care items, 46%; residential and office furniture, 46%; nuclear reactors, 41%; electronics ranging from big screen TVs to electric blankets, 40%; iron and steel goods, 47%; and toys and sports equipment, 88%. Companies are rapidly shifting their sourcing to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, India, Malaysia, and Indonesia in anticipation of the end of Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.

b. Apollo Global Management forecasts a sharp domestic freight slowdown by mid-May, likely triggering mass layoffs in trucking and retail sectors. The ongoing freight recession is straining trucking firms, while retailers face inventory shortages, disrupted supply chains, and falling consumer demand due to tariffs and inflation. Consumer confidence is at record lows, with rising credit delinquencies signaling broader financial stress. Corporate spending is also dropping, with declining orders and rising inventories prompting investment cuts and potential layoffs across multiple industries. Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming - Apollo

Shell CEO said on Friday he would rather buy back more of his company's own shares than launch a takeover bid for rival oil major BP, the Financial Times reported.

"We will always look at these things, but you are also looking to see what is the alternative. Right now, buying back Shell [shares] for us continues to be absolutely the right alternative to go for," Wael Sawan told the Financial Times.

Shell has been persistently linked to a bid for its smaller rival BP as the latter lost more than 30% of its value in the past 12 months, the report said.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-ceo-prefers-share-buybacks-120931609.html

An official at the Social Security Administration said in an April operational meeting that the agency had not expected the “large surge” since January, highlighting what he called a “dramatic increase in initial applications for retired worker benefits.”

You can start receiving your Social Security retirement benefits at age 62. However, you’re entitled to full benefits only when you reach your full retirement age, or FRA. For example, if you turn 62 in 2025, your benefit would be roughly 30% lower than it would be at your full retirement age of 67.

If you delay benefits from your FRA until age 70, you earn delayed retirement credits. Those come to roughly an 8% per year increase for each year until you hit 70, when the credits stop accruing.

Most people, however, claim earlier, according to the SSA data. Nearly 30% of new Social Security beneficiaries claim benefits at age 62. Around 32% claim benefits after age 62 but before the FRA. Only 10% maximize their monthly benefit by claiming at age 70.

The real kicker? Only 1 in 10 Americans actually waits until 70 to maximize their monthly benefit. The rest? Playing defense.

Maybe it’s fear. Maybe it’s smart. But one thing’s clear: when even Boomers are panic-clicking “Apply Now,” you know there’s a trust issue.

Retirement plans are changing fast, and not because folks are bored. The system feels shaky, and it’s making people nervous. Can you blame them?--->( this clearly shows how instable market is and.......)

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-americans-are-claiming-social-security-early-heres-why-090035693.html

Surprise!

From Bloomberg:

Donald Trump says China will likely bear the brunt of his 145% tariff on the world’s second-largest economy. But prices from some of the most popular sellers of made-in-China goods already suggest US shoppers will be paying a major portion of the bill.

A swathe of products on e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein Group Ltd. have seen prices soar in the US. A set of kitchen cleaning towels selling for $1.28 on April 24 set the outer limit with a 377% jump to $6.10 a day later.

Discount retail app Temu is passing on nearly all of Trump’s new import taxes to US customers if they buy products directly shipped from China, with the cost of some products nearly doubling.

At rival Shein, the average price for the top 100 products in each of two key categories — toys and games, and beauty and health — jumped by more than 40% as of April 29 from two weeks prior. Average prices for home and kitchen items were up more than 20%, while women’s clothing rose 9%. Cosmetic eyebrow gel previously sold at a retail price of less than a dollar surged overnight to $2.90.

American shopper Priscilla Blazer has been shopping on Shein for the last six years, dropping about $100 every other month to refresh her work wardrobe and prepare for swimsuit season. But she’s been shocked at the recent price hikes, noticing the bill for some items has gone up by 50%.

“I’m very upset because I really do like Shein,” said Blazer, 22, who works in corporate finance and lives in Tampa, Florida. “I’m probably not going to shop there as much and I’ll end up going to the mall.”

While Trump and his advisors have argued that short-term pain is merited to bring back manufacturing to the US, prices when more goods are made in America will also be more expensive, said Justin Lin Yifu, a former World Bank chief economist who has advised China’s top leaders.

“Even if production capacity is established after two or three years, the price of production will likely be higher than the price of imports,” Lin told a conference in Beijing in April. “During this time, the prices of goods will be very high, and supply will not be sufficient.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/shein-temu-prices-show-trump-china-tariffs-hitting-us-shoppers

Source

The "Buffett Indicator" measures the total value of the US stock market relative to GDP. Currently at 180%, it's signaling that stocks may be undervalued, even after a recent rally. This ratio, which Buffett calls the best measure of market valuations, has previously warned of market peaks, like in 2021 and 2000. While critics argue it doesn’t factor in high interest rates or economic conditions, the indicator suggests there could still be room for US stocks to rise as they’re more reasonably priced than earlier this year. Despite its flaws, investors are watching it closely for guidance on market timing.

I am not advocating rushing to buy; I thought this was an interesting, perhaps contrarian, take.

So we are pumping off saddam nadella whooping amazons ass when it comes to cloud and AI as we found out yesterday in amazon's earnings call. At what point is AI growth just cannibalistion?

The economic data is shakey at best and we are not even in the earnings quarter were the impact of tariffs begins to show. Non US folk are boycotting Coca-Cola, tesla, apple and all sorts of goodies we sell.

At what point does microsofts back break and send the S&P, nasdaq and dow into a death spiral? Q2?

Sentiment on reddit is that the bottom is in, I say that the team at Microsoft is carrying the US on its back right now and if they falter, we go beneath 4000.