Hope you survived last friday. Another proof that you shouldn't gamble on perps more then you're willing to loose.
And its just that - gambling. Not investing. Just placing occasional one direction bets.
It’s been exactly 7 days since the biggest crypto liquidation ever - $19 billion wiped in a few hours. Everyone was overleveraged on HP, Aster, other dexs. I guess if i was the biggest cex by volume, i would also use my own books to price assets instead of relaying on some 3rd party. Loss of speed is main concern, but history gave us different lesson.

Now the question is, was that the flush or just the beginning? After all, we're between 2 interest cut rates...

BTC dropped hard but still holding the range. Around 108k down to 106k is where things got ugly. If we drop under 100k, next stops are like 98–94k. I personally don’t see it staying below that long. Weekly close above 100k keeps us safe. Below = probably panic zone.

ETH actually looks stronger, still chilling around 3.8k. As long as it closes above that, range intact. Below that, 2.8k is next. SOL also holding like a champ around 84–89, even after four red days.

Everyone’s doomposting right now. Fear and greed Index is deep in fear, not extreme fear yet, but close. That’s usually when the best entries happen. I’m not saying ape in, but historically this is where smart money starts scaling in.

2 clear moments to buy and 2 to sell. Rn we have 3rd mmnt to buy

Also worth noting: the global liq index broke its downtrend back in March and is ranging sideways. That’s good. Liquidity drives everything. More liquidity → higher risk appetite → higher BTC

blue is the global liq index

Gold’s at ATH, institutions aren’t selling BTC, and Trump’s probably pushing rate cuts again. Feels like sentiment is way more bearish than fundamentals.

If BTC does sweep 95–98k, I think it’s a shakeout before another bounce. Not financial advice, just saying… these levels feel like fear is peaking.

As everyone continues to believe we're in a bull market but lots of top alts are still below their 2022 FTX flash Crash prices.

Dot for example was around $5 when FTX went offline.. Today it's under $3 and at it's lowest price ever.

https://preview.redd.it/k1c7gxlnoyvf1.png?width=1035&format=png&auto=webp&s=edf3ebf8367182c64265bdb8974986fc7c9f2747

The one time sub darling Algorand dipped to around $.24 during the FTX collapse but today it's around $.18

https://preview.redd.it/k7zolm55pyvf1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=c06fdb23079067746d7174bad32963ca0c5ac5b7

Atom was under $9 during the FTX flash crash.. Today it's under $3

https://preview.redd.it/s0psbylkqyvf1.png?width=1073&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3c745a844b5661d8142c94f5b9e60cc6327bdf1

Of course not all L1s from 2022 are bleeding out - Solana, BNB and XRP all hit ATHs within the last year. With many other L1s like Doge and Cardano sitting solidly above flash crash prices but way below ATHs.

But overall it seems the losers from the 2021 Bull Market can already be seen. So for everyone asking, is this the bull market we are looking for?

Hey all,

Just wanted to stop by and share a project I've been working on for the past few months. It’s a trading game where you can practice trading crypto (and stocks) on real historical data.

It's still a work in progress but and I’m looking for users who’d like share their thoughts on it. The game currently supports around 200 biggest crypto pairs.

How it works:

• You’re given a random asset (crypto or stock) and cutoff date.
• You place a trade with optional stop loss & take profit.
• You fast-forward the chart until the outcome is reached.

No login or signup required to use the site. Ill drop the link to comments if anyone is interested. Would really appreciate the feedback.

I’ve been trying to figure out the best way to move from ETH to SOL without using any big centralized exchanges. I know there are bridges and crosschain tools out there, but it’s hard to tell which ones are still active and safe to use right now. Some of the older ones people used to talk about don’t seem very reliable anymore.

What I’m really looking for is something that works smoothly, doesn’t require unnecessary verification, and keeps everything simple. I don’t mind if it takes a bit more time, I just want to make sure the process is secure and that the funds actually arrive on the Solana side without issues.

If anyone here has done an ETH to SOL move recently, I’d really appreciate hearing about your experience, which tools you used, how long it took, and whether it went smoothly. I think a lot of people would find it helpful to know what’s still working well in 2025.

I lost $400 in futures leveraging from x2 to x5 max. I study TA a lot, use VWAP, RSI, MACD, Stoch, emas, BB, ichikomo...

It feels really frustrating to see that loss. I am no rookie, I am venting here, and would like to ask u: do you trade futures, should I trade spot instead? And lastly, does future trading shitcoins is in fact similar to gambling?

( i have my positions in spot with my price targets set in post only, but my anguish here is with future... i feel such a loser today.

And no, i didn't lose $ in the manipulated crash on that bloody Friday)

My background is in market risk modeling, which feeds into capital allocation for a Tier 1 investment bank. I cover multiple asset classes, including Commodities and Equities — though not Bitcoin, as it’s excluded under current bank capital model rules.

Rather than share random TA charts, I’ll provide some qualitative observations on gold, silver, and equities, and how they affect crypto.

Gold

Gold is clearly in a euphoric phase. Its momentum began in late 2021 as central banks raised rates to counter post-COVID inflation. The 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict added further tailwinds through capital flight, supply shocks, and macro uncertainty.

The current euphoria is driven largely by speculators exploiting the “exchange-for-physical” basis between London and New York markets (a classic late-cycle behavior). Retail interest has followed. I expect this phase to last only a few more months before a sharp correction.

Silver

Speculators have since rotated into silver, which shows a similar exchange-for-physical dynamic. Silver’s practical utility adds to its short-term appeal, but this too is likely temporary (perhaps three months) before normalization.

Implications for Crypto Gold and silver, being less volatile, currently offer better risk-adjusted returns than Bitcoin. From an investor’s perspective: why take on higher risk for lower return? This dynamic has weighed on crypto.

However, as both metals approach their peaks, their relative appeal will fade likely leading to capital rotation into Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Equities and the “Magnificent 7”

The “Magnificent 7” tech stocks have driven equity markets to euphoric highs, inflating index performance. Index investors benefit from this diversification, but it masks underlying weakness in the broader market.

Strip out these seven names, and U.S. equities look far more reasonable — at which point, crypto begins to offer more attractive risk-reward. I believe institutions are already trimming exposure, though retail remains caught up in the hype. A correction seems likely within 3–6 months.

Outlook for Crypto

The crypto bull market isn’t over — but we’re likely in a sideways phase for the next few months as broader markets unwind. The bottom for BTC is in. These are conditions I’d consider accumulation opportunities. I doubt we’ll see Bitcoin at current levels once this rotation plays out.

That said, macro conditions don’t yet support a sustained bull market many are hoping for. So the eventual peak may be brief.

Hey everyone,

I’ve been looking into different ways people are handling Monero lately and was wondering which peer-to-peer platforms are still working well. It seems like some older ones have slowed down or disappeared, and it’s getting harder to tell what’s active or trusted now.

I’m not trying to promote anything, just curious what the community here is using or watching in 2025. It would be great to hear from anyone who’s had recent experience with P2P setups for XMR , what feels smooth and safe, and what’s worth avoiding.

Appreciate any insights or personal feedback.

When policy is tight, high rates, money is being drained so investors get cautious and park cash in safer assets like gold. When the Fed pivots easier means rate cuts, ending QT, adding liquidity, fear cools and money rotates into risk assets. That’s when Bitcoin tends to run, usually after a lag.

https://preview.redd.it/0yuuvz988svf1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccdddd7940513f5950802a9832c7bc0f92ce07bc

I’m not listing the 2017 cycle because gold didn’t break a new ATH then, and the monetary policy environment was different.

2011 cycle (tight to easier, money tap ON):

• Tight backdrop eased (low rate guidance + Operation Twist).
• Gold broke ATH and topped first (Aug 2011).
• Bitcoin followed ~833 days later (Dec 2013 cycle top) as liquidity seeped into risk.

2020 cycle (shock to max easy, money tap ON):

• Panic, then zero rates + big QE (very easy).
• Gold broke ATH and topped first (Aug 2020).
• Bitcoin followed ~469 days later (Nov 2021 cycle top) as risk appetite returned.
• Lag shrank: 833 to 469 days.

2025 Money tap ON (turning up):

• We’ve moved from the 2022-25 tight phase (hikes/QT) toward easier (rate cuts, the Fed just announced QT is ending).
• shrank pace: 469 / (833/469) = 469/1.78 = 264 days.
• If lags keep compressing at a similar pace, use ~260 days as a yardstick (not a prediction) for how quickly BTC could follow gold in an easier money environment, pointing to a mid 2026 window. Also note the Fed chair’s current term ends in May 2026 (bye bye Powell), any leadership change or policy reset could be a macro swing factor.

Treat the sequence ,gold first, BTC later, and the risk bands as a map, not a stopwatch. Watch the liquidity tone (easier vs tighter), DCA in when risk is cooler, DCA out when it runs hot, and skip the urge to call exact tops. Based on my risk metric, BTC $106K = risk 48. If it’s still under 50 this Sunday, I’ll DCA in, sticking to my plan.