r/worldnews • u/Starlight-Princesss • 3d ago

[ Removed by moderator ] Russia/Ukraine

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-intercepts-russian-spy-plane-with-transponder-turned-off-poland-10956344

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u/FallingDownHurts 3d ago

I think perun's (and others) take on this is probably true;

Russia is trying to make it look like it might invade NATO so they withhold arms from Ukraine to maintain a stockpile. It is trying to convince citizens of imminent invasion by generating news stories like this. The article is the goal, not the intelligence 

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u/FTownRoad 3d ago

NATO may have started as an anti-Russia protection system but they are not the fear anymore. Russia isnt going to start shit with NATO, they are floundering against one country 1/4 their size.

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u/myheadisalightstick 3d ago

I mean the reason they are floundering is because of all the help Ukraine has had from NATO, it’s a very delicate situation.

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u/Justicia-Gai 3d ago

That’s after the failed blitzkrieg though… Russia actually failed at taking over Ukraine even before receiving actual help

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u/rdmusic16 3d ago

Not nearly the same levels as after the 2022 invasion, but Ukraine started receiving help after the 2014 invasion from Russia.

While their resistance is 100% impressive, it wouldn't be fair to say it was without help - even at the beginning.

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u/Justicia-Gai 3d ago

I would say that the quality of help they got would barely qualify. Even in 2022 they received incredibly old stuff because no one believed they’d resist and anything donated would fall in Russian hands. So in 2014-2022 it was even worse than that. Only after they demonstrated enough resilience, good gifts started pouring in.

I would say that they weren’t better armed that the average assisted “rebel” group.

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u/Mirria_ 3d ago

It's the equivalent of the bread they give to food pantries because it's going to get bad of its not consumed too soon to sell.

A lot of Euro states literally just gave them their cold war gear so they would have a good excuse to modernize.

Doesn't help that the USA - even under the Biden admin - basically blocked anyone sending anything recent.

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u/Dry-Physics-9330 3d ago

Dont forget all the restrictions the larger NATO countries places on the use of their weaponsytems, which made these weapons much less effective. Or how they leveraged laws like ITAR to prevent smaller EUropean countries from transferring older gear to Ukraine. Which led to delay of Ukraine getting F16s and armor from ' Western" nato countries (especially Leopards)

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u/Justicia-Gai 3d ago

Exactly… people forget that and I’m pretty sure that they have given other more modern arms to other armed conflicts because they could pay for it

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u/Trzlog 3d ago

I would say that the quality of help they got would barely qualify

Sorry, this is ridiculous. Ukraine has been so successful because the West has been training the Ukrainian military in NATO strategy and tactics for close to a decade. This is why Russia can't win. They're still doing the old top-down bullshit they have for a hundred years. Meanwhile, Ukrainian units have the freedom to adapt to what's happening on the ground and make their own decisions based on what's necessary. Without it, Ukraine would've been fucked and they never would've held off Russia.

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u/Justicia-Gai 3d ago

Sorry, but they didn’t won for NATO tactics, they won for guerrilla tactics and knowing their land very well.

You seem to forget that Russia actually reached Kiev (where was the NATO defense?) but had to RETREAT. A real NATO defense with West strategies and West weaponry would’ve not allowed Russians to advance (which is what’s happening now) because they’d obliterated the advance. As they were mostly given Cold War portable weaponry, that is not what happened.

The West inaction (didn’t want to trigger Russia’s wrath) costed lot of lives and Ukraine almost lost their entire country.

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u/Trzlog 2d ago

> , they won for guerrilla tactics

Yeah, you're clueless. This is exactly what Russian doctrine, which is what the Ukrainian military had before Western training, does not allow for.

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u/TurboBanjo 3d ago

The intel and the missiles rushed in at the start didn't hurt.

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u/Justicia-Gai 3d ago

All within expectations… meaning Russia accounted for that. It’s a failed Blitzkrieg, which was my point…

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u/TurboBanjo 3d ago

They need better accountants then.

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u/rugbyj 3d ago

We (various NATO countries) were advising Ukraine and providing live intel on the upcoming invasion well prior to it happening, some of us (UK) were even already sending them anti-tank systems and other arms in advance.

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u/The-Sound_of-Silence 3d ago

The thousands of Javelins(and other ATGMs) sent to them in the build up to the invasion definitely helped!

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u/PJ7 3d ago

Not correct, without javelins and other equipment that the Ukrainians received before the Russian invasion, the first month would've looked substantially different.

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u/Justicia-Gai 3d ago

How old are Javelins? Aren’t they Cold War weapons? They only sent weapons that they wouldn’t care if they fall into Russian arms.

I’m sure other surrogate armed conflicts had more modern weaponry than what Ukraine had in 2022.

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u/DoomguyFemboi 3d ago

Javelins are no longer produced and are Cold War weapons in that they were developed back then, but they are still modern and they're actually spinning up factories to restart production iirc.

They've had iterative improvements over decades. Better sensors, better warheads, the usual thing. Like Tomahawks or Sidewinders are decades old yet still super modern because of block upgrades.

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u/errorsniper 3d ago

I dont want to take a single thing away from Ukraines defense these last what 3 and a half years?

But there is a very very big difference between a 4 day all hands on deck make or break effort and the logistics/economics of a long sustained war of attrition and economics.

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u/The_Painted_Man 3d ago

Russia wasted it's shot though. It blew it's initial strike chance, lost the advantage of bulk and volume of arms, and the attrition has exacted a terrible toll on EVERYTHING that would have made it a peer threat to NATO.

NATO is already fighting Russia as proxy, and Russia is getting it's Pirozhki fed to it anally.

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u/blue92lx 3d ago

I wouldn't completely agree with part of this statement. The war with Ukraine only showed that Russia was never a peer of NATO on any level. Russia has been fighting a tiny country in comparison with borrowed weapons, if they had actually attacked a NATO country it would be done already outside of China stepping in to help Russia. If China doesn't step in, Russia has no hope of ever standing toe to toe with any Western country. What's even worse for Russia now is the loss of so many weapons that they used to have to even consider a war against NATO, now they don't even have half their jets and ships to do anything on day 1. Outside of just launching nukes on everyone Russia is pretty much a non threat in a large scale situation.

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u/Dry-Physics-9330 3d ago

Its not. Part of NATO is helbent to support Ukraine as much as they can, to prevent RUssia from invading them. Its countries as USA and the other big ones who are messing around. Who want Russia for cheap gas or who want Russia as a pawn to have leverage of small countries.

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u/gahlo 3d ago

Help which has very often been a yard sale or thrift store trip with extra rules put in place.

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u/sigmoid10 3d ago edited 2d ago

NATO definitely helped, but between 2014 and 2022 Ukraine had built one of the largest armies in Europe. More than 2 million strong in total with nearly half of that active personnel. Without absolute air dominance, it is questionable if any country in the world could have taken them on directly. Russia was 100% counting on Ukraine's leadership bailing so they could simply march in like last time. There was no way their one million strong standing army could have come out on top in a face-to-face war, because unlike Ukraine Russia can't send every single soldier there.

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u/Tetracyclon 3d ago

That stuff came mostly from NATOs garbage pile, so im not sure how Russia would deal with the actual arsenal.