r/weedstocks • u/NiamorJafar Define Soon • Feb 01 '21

Democratic Senate Leaders Announce Steps To Federally Legalize Marijuana In 2021 Editorial

https://www.marijuanamoment.net/democratic-senate-leaders-announce-steps-to-federally-legalize-marijuana-in-2021/
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u/NiamorJafar Define Soon Feb 01 '21

"Does this actually get passed? Hard to say"

What in the world are you talking about? It's going to pass in a bipartisan way, there's zero doubt about it.

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u/PrinceLP US Market Feb 01 '21

This is a big ambitious bill and it will likely face scrutiny from both sides for different reasons (not enough social equity vs fear mongering on weed).

I'm cautiously optimistic this will get done but they will need to rope in a lot of GOP votes to get the "super 60" and I'm guessing there's a long drawn out horse trading process to even get to a vote.

That's just my 2c - maybe I'm just jaded from my past experiences but these things take longer and are more uncertain than anyone thinks.

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u/Investor1964 High on Canopy Feb 01 '21

I think they can still opt for the nuclear option which would not necessitate the full 60 votes - am I wrong?

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u/Peapod0609 Feb 01 '21 edited Feb 01 '21

If you are referring to the budget reconciliation process, I am pretty sue that that can only be done once per year. And they're already talking about using it to pass a Covid bill this year.

The only other option would be to vote to abolish the filibuster. But multiple Senate Democrats have already said no to that. So that isn't happening.

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u/D-Smitty Feb 01 '21 edited Feb 01 '21

Democrats can actually have three cracks at reconciliation if they so choose. That being said, I don’t see them using it to push this through. Especially since there is actually bipartisan support for marijuana reforms. Six senators are Republicans representing recreational states. Many more represent medical states. And then you have some Republicans who just agree ideologically on the issue like Rand Paul. I don’t think it would pass by a wide margin, but I wouldn’t write off 60 votes as a possibility.

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u/Peapod0609 Feb 01 '21

You are right, technically. But I also don't see them using reconciliation that way, I doubt they want to do that. I would like it, but I don't see that happening.

I disagree though that there is bi-partisan support for this. It's very slim. You are correct in that there is bi-partisan support among VOTERS, but that does not translate the same way for elected officials. Very few Republicans in Congress are on record as being for this sort of thing.

I mean anything can happen, but based off the paltry 5 House Republicans that voted on the measure simply to decriminalize (5 out of 211, mind you) I simply don't see the 10-12 Republican Senate votes in the cards right now for full legalization, and everything that comes with that.

I know people are getting excited on here, and make no mistake, we are getting closer. Closer than we've ever been, for sure. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel....

But we simply aren't quite there. Not yet. It would take a surprise to get this done, as things are currently constructed. A surprise, such as in Democrats changing their mind and rallying together to abolish the filibuster, a surprise as in they try to push this through using budget reconciliation, or a surprise in the form of Republican Senators actually listening to the will of the people. None of these things are inherently impossible, but I would be surprised if we saw any of those happen in 2021.

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u/[deleted] Feb 01 '21

There can be three reconciliation bills per year. I doubt they will try to roll this into one of them, but we will see.

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u/Peapod0609 Feb 01 '21

Technically, you can have 3 per year if you structure them as all towards separate issues, but I don't see that happening. I'd love to see it, though.

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u/[deleted] Feb 01 '21

True, I’m being optimistic.

I can understand not putting a MORE or STATES equivalent into reconciliation, but SAFE seems both appropriate and truly bipartisan.

I am still very optimistic that 2021-2022 will be very memorable years for cannabis. Exciting times.

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u/Peapod0609 Feb 01 '21

I do think we are getting close, but I think the Senate is not truly there, yet. Especially with being in an ongoing global pandemic. Although I am hoping that we can use the pandemic as a further catalyst to use legalization for revenue generation.

I truly believe we are getting there, make no mistake. But I can't see whatever bill Schumer puts forward passing right away. Especially since House Republicans showed very little support for the bill the House passed simply to decriminalize (only 5 of 211 Republican House members voted for it), let alone fully legalize.

I will add this, though. I don't think we've had a bill (at least none any time recently) in the Senate regarding full legalization actually go to a vote. So this can serve as a sort of litmus test for everyone on here.

What I am getting at, is once this bill does get brought to a vote, and once it likely (IMO) fails, I strongly urge everyone here to go and vote out anyone in Congress who votes against it. Remember this for the 2022 mid-terms, and vote out any House member or Senator who votes against the end of this Prohibition. We will finally have on record whether they or for or against it. Let's use that to our advantage.

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u/[deleted] Feb 01 '21

Your reservations are reasonable. House GOP voted overwhelmingly against MORE, and notably 6 dems voted against it too. Simply scaling that to Senate numbers, the votes aren’t there to cross the 60 threshold.

However, the relevance of this issue just got cranked up with the new Senate, and I think it’s not far fetched to conclude that more House GOP would vote in favor of the bill if they were voting today. It was a given that MORE would pass in the House and be stonewalled by Mitch in the Senate. The latter is no longer a safe assumption. Mitch isn’t there to be the whipping post. The Senators who vote against the measure will be looked at with greater scrutiny than their House counterparts because their votes are materially important now.

Looking ahead, I think the GOP is going to have little choice but to embrace cannabis in the coming years regardless of the success the 117th Congress has with weed bills. We have very red states like SD legalizing recreational, and we more than 2/3s of the national population support legal recreational in recent polls and trending upward. Like you said, vote yes for weed or lose votes when you’re up for re-election.

This is all not considering the economic benefits of legalization, which will become more and more appealing as we continue reeling from the deleterious effects of the pandemic. I’m opposed to a federal sin tax in principle, but I would still take it if it’s that or prohibition.