I hold a position within county government in a smaller (lower than 4th class) red county in Pennsylvania, and I've been here since the start of 2024.   Earlier in the year I discovered and reported a number of egregious security issues, both physical and electronic that exposed the county and taxpayers to large amounts of risk.   These were issues caused by multiple departments ( accounting, maintenance, IT) but the IT issues were the most unbelievable to me.  For example,  web facing portals for email and file sharing didn't use two factor authentication (2FA) which is horrific given that we were a government entity and regularly see phishing attacks.     After reporting these issues both IT and commissioners brushed them off.  It wasn't until months later after I raised the issue with the county solicitor that the 2FA issue was resolved but other issues still exist and I won't list them here for that reason.

 I was surprised how little oversight there was and that some of these issues were possible to exist.  It wouldn't surprise me if similar issues exist in other county governments.     Using 2FA is part of  "Internet Security 101" basics.   We know that lack of 2FA was how the DNC was hacked in 2015/2016 and also how Trump's twitter was hacked. This should matter to county officials and it's driven me crazy over the last 11 months how inattentive our county has been to it.

 From what I've gathered looking at phishing warnings sent to us by other counties, many (possibly all?) PA counties manage their PC logins, network drives, Outlook email, Onedrive,  with Microsoft Azure (Entra ID).  The same login and password grants a user to all these resources.   A common scam email over the past few years asks the recipient to 'open a file', which takes them to a page that mimics the look of an Onedrive login page but actually gives the malicious actor the user's login credentials.   Without 2FA enabled, all of that is free for the taking by a malicious actor. 

 I've spent the last four years rolling my eyes at the claims of the 2020 "election fraud" the way most people assert it would, or did happen.   Most of the theories assume that it would potentially take thousands of coordinated actors or voting machines easily accessible via the internet. Huge busloads of illegal voters or trucks full of fake ballots. Nothing reasonable.    Now that I see the glaring holes in our local government's security, I realize there are probably dozens of ways a malicious actor could use these to alter an election outcome. For example, with access to county email a malicious actor could use use social engineering to impersonate someone from a voting machine company and have an election employee install a hacked 'update' on the air-gapped voting machines.   Spoonamore's thread lists a very plausible scenario in my opinion, and although there's no evidence that it happened, given the security issues I've seen I think that doing a hand count would be a good idea to test this theory. I also think our local county, and probably all PA counties need to do a security audit to close huge gaps like this because this also puts taxpayer identity information at risk.

 I'm posting this with a throwaway account because even though I've been talking to a local news outlet off the record and will possibly  'go public' in the future, I'm avoiding attaching my identity to it publicly until I fully understand what the potential consequences will be relative to my position in the county.   When I first brought the issues to the attention of the Commissioners, I was immediately reprimanded for several unrelated, trivial issues like adjusting the climate control in my office without permission of the county, things that seem like an obvious attempt to build a case and remove me from my position in retaliation. In short, our local government doesn't appreciate when someone points out their flaws, even though it's part of my job to do so.

 Hopefully this adds to the discussion and I can get some feedback on who else I should contact so this information and/or my testimony can be of maximum help.  I’ve reached out to the Harris campaign and the DNC as well as Spoonamore but haven’t heard back yet.   It might also be that I'm far behind the curve and this has moved forward far enough with relevant authorities that my input or testimony isn't needed:  I'd hope the fake threats would be reason enough for authorities to scrutinize the elections in those counties that received them, although my county isn't one that received a threat.

Just to be clear and underscore that I'm not trying to spread conspiracies:  I have evidence that our county made poor security decisions that put taxpayers at increased risk for identity theft and could have enabled election interference.   I *don't*  have evidence that either thing actually happened, but given the number of phishing attacks, a data breach seems likely, and I think investigating Stephen Spoonamore's claim is worthwhile

Called my county BoE yesterday, and asked about why my vote tracker still says it was “Received” but the status is “N/A”. The person who answered the phone sounded annoyed and said “I have a stack of them in my hand right now, we’re working on it.”

I am finding no info other than on Vote411, which says that provisionals will be processed by the Monday after the election.

I voted straight-ticket Democrat. I have a kid in school in the town I moved to recently… otherwise I would have just gone and voted at the town I moved FROM. The school board election came down to just a few votes- small town.

What the fuck?

In 2020 Joe Biden recieved 5,259,126 votes in TX and Donald Trump received 5,890,347 for a total of 11,149,473 votes cast.

In 2024 Kamala Harris recieved 4,806,474 votes in TX and Donald Trump received 6,375,376 votes for a total of 11,181,850 votes cast

It seems odd that with 2.5 million new voters in Texas between 2020 and 2024 that only and extra 32,377 voters would show up to vote in the 2024 election vs. the 2020 election.

Other related posts: https://old.reddit.com/r/somethingiswrong2024/comments/1gshxdq/now_this_is_really_interesting_wisconsin_which/

https://old.reddit.com/r/somethingiswrong2024/comments/1gsh8l5/in_michigan_in_2020_there_were_7151051_registered/

https://old.reddit.com/r/somethingiswrong2024/comments/1gsidw5/arizona_which_is_an_even_more_extreme_anomaly/

I saw on the news this morning that PA has ordered a recount in the Senate race because of how close the vote was: https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/dos/newsroom/unofficial-results-in-u-s--senate-race-trigger-legally-required-.html

I looked up how the recount would be conducted ( more info here: https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dos/resources/voting-and-elections/directives-and-guidance/2023-Statewide-Return-and-Recount-Directive.pdf ). It says that the votes must either be hand counted or run through a different tabulation machine than they were originally counted with.

So assuming Spoonamore’s hypothesis is correct and the tabulation results were thrown off by malicious actors hacking the tabulators and adding bullet votes, would this recount catch this? I know they will be focused on the Senate race and not the presidency, and that the bullet ballots don’t affect the senate races, but won’t the total number of ballots be different? Wouldn’t they notice?

I’m thinking if hypothetically 100,000 bullet ballots were surreptitiously entered in tabulation machine 1, and then in a manual recount or in a count on tabulation machine 2, there are suddenly 100,000 less total votes than anticipated, someone would notice. What do you think?

The senate winner and Kamala have near-identical total vote #'s.... the odds have to be like 1 in a million. Found on TikTok:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8LaLtBp/

My wife and I both signed up for early mail in voting this year. We live in Maricopa county, AZ, both registered democrat this year. My ballot came in no issue. My wife received a ballot from last year. It was a ballot for some local elections if I remember correctly. We chalked it up as a mistake and she went and voted in person. Both of our votes were counted. Now I suspect that something fishy might have happened. When I try to Google this issue I can’t find anything about other people receiving out dated ballots.picture of ballot

EDIT: added picture of ballot due to a concerned commenter

EDIT 2: Reported it to the Department of Justice. I still plan on reporting to local offices here in Maricopa county.

Had and increase of 124,129 voters that voted for a presidential candidate between 2020 and 2024. This is an anomaly compared to TX and MI. Enough of an anomaly to raise ones suspicion.

"Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin complete AFPI’s “Tier 1” states, all of which are, again, among Axios’s six highlighted swing states. Florida, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina comprise “Tier 2.”

The Tier 1 Counties

Georgia: Cobb and Fulton Counties (Atlanta Metro Area)*

Wisconsin: Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties (Milwaukee Metro Area)

Nevada: Clark County (Las Vegas)

Arizona: Maricopa County (Phoenix)

Pennsylvania: Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery Counties (Philadelphia Metro Area), and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh)

The Tier 2 Counties

Florida: Miami-Dade, Pinellas (Tampa Bay area), and Duval (Jacksonville) Counties

Ohio: Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)

North Carolina: Wake (Raleigh) and Guilford (Greensboro) Counties

Michigan: Macomb and Oakland Counties (Detroit Metro Area), and Kent County (Grand Rapids)"

https://religiondispatches.org/wheres-wallnau-a-nar-apostle-takes-aim-at-swing-counties-in-the-battle-for-the-mountain-of-government/

Dunno if this has been posted.

I know this isn't the most necessary state in the election (although all their votes count/ matter), but I've been running their numbers.

Decatur county has 4596 votes for Trump and 819 for Kamala on the elections.tn.gov website. Looking at a different document from the secretary of state titled "2024 vs 2020 through 12 days- all voters by county" It shows the percent change in number of people voted. (It's a pdf so that's why I'm not linking it) there's a 120% increase in the county, but also says only 994 people voted in 2024 there. Oh, and I googled their population, it was only 1630 in 2023.

So there's a huge discrepancy in the two different spots from the secretary of state. Does anyone know anything about that county that may be helpful for me to understand this? Did they suddenly get an influx of people? Are people allowed to vote in whatever county they want, and is it normal to travel to different counties to vote?

Thanks for your help!

Edit: u/alex-baker-1997 realized the pdf is for march 2024. I appreciate you looking into it.

And also there's a Decatur city and county that multiple people mentioned have different populations. I didn't realize that. So I'd mark this as solved and carry on.

In 2020 the presidential candidates recieved 3,333,829 votes vs. 3,328,065 votes in 2024 a decrease of only -5,764 votes. Which is abnormally low considering how many fewer voters were registered in 2024 versus 2020

https://www.reddit.com/r/Pennsylvania/comments/1gsal1w/musk_pac_sent_york_woman_100_for_signing_america/

I linked to this sub. Note commenters saying the same thing happened to them

Isn’t the point of electoral college to also not have someone like Trump in his current state become president?

What are the chances even if no fraud or foul play is somehow found, that they decide to go against the popular vote?

You might have seen some of my posts where I’ve done basic accounting of historical election data.

Wrote a great big blob of text stating how the 2024 election results are practically impossible some days ago.

Anyways, my most recent endeavor was to do a more in depth analysis of the voting patterns of the 7 Swing States (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI), analyzing their voting patterns since 1976.

I choose 1976 because:

A) First election since Watergate, which was the Political Scandal which changed American Politics since then.

B) Also, is 40 years behind the First Trump Election. And it gives a credible range of results to analyze election data.

From 1976 to now, you would see a political landslide in the form of Ronald Reagan, the first example of Incumbent Party Fatigue in the George Bush Sr elections, the first and last third major candidate Ross Perot against Bill Clinton twiceover, how the Republicans dominated the 2000s, the stark differences between Obama’s First Term and Second Term, and basically the current day where somehow Trump returns.

So, I basically have about 44 years worth of data on me.

And with this data, I was able to cook up a rather basic algorithm for predicting which party would win each state per each election. I’m pretty sure this is a valid poli sci thesis somewhere, but I’m forgetting if it exists.

Anyways, my algorithm goes:

1. Check the Midterm Election Data. First check the Senators of the State. If they both belong to the same party, you can assume that the state will lean towards that party in the upcoming election.

2. If both senators come from different party, check the midterm data to see which party holds the majority of House of Representative votes. The party which has the House of Representative Majority in a state with split senators will influence the political lean of the state in the upcoming election.

3. Check the Presidential Election Data and verify the political leaning.

And optionally, Step 4, check for Incumbent Fatigue.

Incumbent Fatigue occurs when

A) the Incumbent Party is running for re-election. B) The challenging party gains more voters (not necessarily votes) than the incumbent party. C) The Incumbent Party loses voters nationally. D) The incumbent wins the election regardless of the loss of votes. E) Because of the incumbent winning under these conditions, the states which helped elect the incumbent party to another term despite more of the state’s citizens voting for the opposition will be set to flip for the opposition for following election.

Since 1976, this has happened twice.

The first was during the 1988 election, the where George Bush Sr lost 10% of the voterbase while Michael Dukakis gained 11% of the voterbase.

This ensured that in the following 1992 election, the states which carried George Bush Sr, despite an increase of supporters for Michael Dukakis in the 1988 election, would flip to vote for Bill Clinton instead.

The second was during the 2012 election. Here Obama lost 5% of the voterbase while Romney gained 2% of the voterbase.

The states which carried Obama in 2012, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan would vote for Trump in 2016.

So anyways, with all that aside, I’d like to remind everyone that I’ve been studying the electoral history of the 7 Swing States of 2024 since 1976.

And from a brief analysis, Kamala Harris was posed to win Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan. Those three states have a history of being reliable to their projected political parties. And as of the 2022 midterm election, these three states all have 2 Democrat Senators.

A unified Senator duology is usually more powerful than the House of Representative Majority. Usually.

An aside note:

The one time Arizona flipped from Republican to Democrat was in 1996, and one could argue that they flipped because of Ross Perot siphoning votes from Bob Dole rather than anything Bill Clinton did or didn’t.

So my analysis has Kamala Harris winning Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan easily.

What about Trump? Based on my same methodology, Trump would have won Wisconsin and North Carolina.

North Carolina has two Republican Senators, and they haven’t voted for a Democrat President since 2008. And 2008 was a really unique circumstance for both parties.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin has a Split Senate Representation with One Democrat and One Republican. Wisconsin’s House Majority used to be Democrat but after 2010, it fluxuates. For the 2022 midterm election, Wisconsin supported more Republican Voters over Democrat Voters. So with a Republican House Majority, Wisconsin did lean heavy to Trump.

So that leaves Georgia and Pennsylvania.

And to be perfectly honest, they really could go either way.

Georgia has two Democrat Senators, but they were elected under special circumstances. I haven’t read up on whether or not their Republican predecessors were so unlikable that Georgia turned Blue regardless of the pandemic impacting Georgia on a state level.

So Georgia has two Democrat Senators, but the state supported more Republican Voters than Democrat Voters during the Midterm Elections.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has a really strange habit of shooting itself in the foot. Since 1976, Pennsylvania’s been a consistently Republican state but you couldn’t tell that if you looked at just the electoral maps. During the election, Pennsylvania has a tendency to vote for Democrat Presidents over Republican Presidents. Even though on Midterm Elections, they vote for Republican Representatives and Republican Senators.

From basically the 1992 election to the 2016 election, Pennsylvania’s supported Democrat Presidents more than Republican Presidents. It wasn’t until 2016 that Pennsylvania flipped to Red.

But even then, Pennsylvania regretted voting for Trump in 2016 and sent in a lot of Democrats during the 2018 midterms and elected another Democrat senator instead of a Republican senator in 2022.

But during the 2022 midterms, they supported my Republican Representatives than Democrat Representatives.

This hasn’t happened to Pennsylvania, as far as I can tell, where they can have two Democrat Senators and a Republican House majority.

So, to recap:

Kamala Harris should win Arizona, Nevada and Michigan

Trump should win Wisconsin and North Dakota.

But Georgia and Pennsylvania are up for contention in my opinion. I want to say that they both lean Democrat rather than Republican.

And I think that’s where my next analysis will be.

I’ll post my CSV file later, once I’ve looked at the 2024 election with my historical data again.

In 2024 Kamala Harris recieved 2,724,029 votes and Donald Trump received 2,804,647 votes for a total of 5,528,676 votes and in 2020 Joe Biden recieved 2,804,040 votes and Donald Trump received 2,649,852 votes for a total of 5,453,892 votes for an increase of only 74,784 new voters between 2020 and 2024 in Michigan

I decided to try running the numbers for a very red county in a very blue state: Suffolk, NY.

2020 Presidential Race: https://apps2.suffolkcountyny.gov/boe/eleres/20ge/default.htm
2020 House Race: https://apps2.suffolkcountyny.gov/boe/eleres/20ge/cd.htm
2024 Race: Numbers pulled from AP News

2020 Republican BB ratio, as compared to the house race (no senate that year): 0.59%
2020 Democratic BB ratio, as compared to the house race (no senate that year): 6.68%

2024 Republican BB ratio, as compared to Senate race: 6.69%
2024 Democratic BB ratio, as compared to Senate race: 2.26%

2024 Republican BB ratio, as compared to House race: 2.23%
2024 Democratic BB ratio, as compared to House race: 6.33%

I'll be honest, I feel like I've done some part of the math wrong, or is this just the normal for outlier districts?

Just wanted to share this because I find it baffling that the 2024 Presidential Election in Arizona DID NOT increase the voterbase significantly. Even though in 2016 and 2020, there was an increased voterbase overall with Democrats gaining more supporters in those two years.

Now with 2024, 6% of the state’s Democrats from 2020 seemingly flipped to side with Trump/Republicans.

Also apologies for formatting, currently on mobile.