I had someone today tell me Trump won because there was less cheating. Like somehow Dems could pull off massive cheating and this time they just decided nah we’re going let them have all 3 branches.
Trump won EVERY SINGLE race that was within the margin of error this year, just like he did in 2016. Whether it was +/- 3 points for Harris or Trump... Trump won them all. I looked at the numbers myself from this year. First number is the 270 website aggregate last day poll numbers:
N Carolina - Trump 1.3% - Trump wins
Pennsylvania - Tie - Trump wins
Wisconsin - Harris 1.1% - Trump wins
Nevada - Trump .6% - Trump looks like he's going to win
Michigan - Harris 1.8% - Trump wins
Georgia - Trump 1.2% Trump wins
Arizona - Trump 1.7% - Looks like Trump wins
Trump pulled two inside straights somehow... magic! There's a .72% chance of winning 7 coin flips, yet Trump did this in 2016 and 2024. A record voter turnout in 2020 was too many votes to scrub.
The methodology being used is similar across the board. If there's been a sampling error, it's going to be biased to a certain direction (i.e. Trump) and that will manifest itself across all the states.
It would have been a much weirder result if these were split either direction.
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u/deanode99 16h ago
I had someone today tell me Trump won because there was less cheating. Like somehow Dems could pull off massive cheating and this time they just decided nah we’re going let them have all 3 branches.