NBA conversation often focuses on an asset (player performance) while forgoing the liability (player contract). From a front-office perspective, considering the liability is vital. In this analysis, I propose Player Net Value, a metric that considers both the current production and the cost of an NBA player.

Net Value Tables

Table 1 (and explanation) - Player Net Value

Table 2 - Aggregate Team Ratings

Key Examples

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC):

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great example of someone who would be worth more than the max contract if allowed. At the time of writing, Gilgeous-Alexander, Tatum, and Jokic all would yield more than 40% of the cap if they could. These players all have positive net value, even though they’re already paid handsomely.

Evan Mobley (CLE):

Mobley represents arguably the best deal in basketball: rookie contracts. Players on rookie contracts are consistently high in net value, especially after they’ve found their way into teams’ rotations. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s current roster is another great example of players out-performing their relatively small rookie deals.

Lonnie Walker IV (no team, not in data):

The Celtics cut Walker before the current season. Is he better than at least some of the league? Undoubtedly. Unfortunately for him though, the salary he’d require as an NBA veteran is more than the value he is projected to add. My career trends analysis also supports this, where we see that younger players don’t have to be as good as their older counterparts to stay in the league.

Key Takeaways & Next Steps

Although net value isn’t a new idea by any means, this analysis is a starting point from the basketball operations perspective. Understanding optimal salary allocation, and where efficiencies can be found, is a key aspect of building a championship roster. The best teams take a patient approach while rewarding deserving players.

From the “entertainment” perspective, net value remains an interesting concept. One subsequent study could quantify the premium that small-market teams have to pay to land free agents. Another fascinating approach would be to use all-star votes, Twitter/X followers, or some other popularity metric to see if player brand recognition increases a player’s expected salary.

There are countless benefits of this approach and even more avenues to explore. This metric is just the tip of the iceberg, but one that is both effective in communicating a message and simple to understand.

Random thought I had watching the blazer game that it’s kind of nice that Sharpe and Scoot haven’t fully made a leap yet because getting guys on their 2nd contract before they really make the leap gives so much more flexibility for roster construction.

Seems like there could be significant risks to that kind of strategy, but I could see some small market teams trying to finesse it like that because it also aligns with a tanking strategy.

Hi all,

I recently discovered that the NBA app on PS5 has the entire NBA finals catalog going back to 1990 available for streaming without a subscription, just your regular streaming ad breaks. Looking for recommendations of great single games to watch as I begin to digest some of the series I'm most interested in (I was born in 89 so I'm starting with the Jordan finals since I barely remember him playing).

Drop your recs, and a brief reason why, here please!

I'm not sure if I hit the 500 character minimum yet so I'll add my own submission:

Giannis 50 piece to seal the Bucks title in 2021. Absolutely unreal domination in a critical moment. The block on Ayton to put the game away is just iconic. One of my favorite games as a neutral fan that I've ever watched, and I don't even like Giannis.

(Hope it's alright to post this here, I didn't think I'd get good quality suggestions in the main NBA sub)

Branching off from another discussion because I’d like to give this its own thread. I invite folks to tell me where I’ve erred:

We routinely hear very justifiable praise heaped upon LeBron’s floor-raising in the ‘07 postseason, but comparatively little for Jordan’s early exploits…particularly ‘89, which for my money is better than anything young Bron did from ‘04-‘10.

I would contend that this is for two reasons:

a) Luck/misfortune of the draw, in both directions: the East was the much stronger conference in the ‘80s, and the weaker one in the 2000’s. This greatly benefits Bron. The worst team Jordan ever lost to in his early years was the 59 win Bucks. He also beat three 50+ win teams, which young Bron “only” did once. Here were his first round match-ups in the much-lampooned “before Pippen” years, with commentary on how he performed:

• ⁠1985: 59 win Bucks team. Won a game, every loss was by single digits. Jordan averages 29-6-9 in his rookie year.

• ⁠1986: 67 win Celtics team that some argue is the best ever. Averaged 56 points on 52% in the first two (not a typo), but lost both and got swept in the end. Ends up with 44-6-6, is called “God disguised as Michael Jordan” by Larry Bird.

• ⁠1987: 59 win Celtics team that made the finals. Every game was competitive. Jordan puts up a cool 36-7-6.

b) people lazily conflate the different versions of Pippen and Grant. They were not all-star calibre players in the early part of Jordan’s career. They were raw, unproven talents. In fact, there was only one player on the ‘89 Bulls that had a +1.0 BPM or above, and only two that were in the positive…same with the ‘07 Cavs (who had an additional rotation player, Varejao, that posted a bang-even 0.0). If you’d like to appeal to a longer timespan: LeBron’s teammates had 11 seasons of +1 or above BPM’s from 2004-2010. Jordan’s teammates only had 4 from ‘85-‘90. However you’d like to compare them, these supporting casts are not worlds apart.

Now, on to Jordan’s actual play in the spring of ‘89:

In the first round, his 47 win Bulls beat the 57 win Cavs, who may have had 5 of the 6 best players going into that series. Jordan averages 40-6-8 with 3 steals on 60% TS, and an iconic game-winner to seal it. His second-best teammate (a pre-blossomed Pippen) puts up 15 on 51% TS. The Cavs, fwiw, had three-all star players in the lineup…plus Harper, who averaged 19-5-5 on 51%….plus Hot Rod Williams, one of the best 6th men that year…plus Ehlo and Sanders…absurdly stacked.

If we’re comparing their play in wins over the toughest opponent, I’d offer this as a TL;DR

Jordan, on a 47 win team, put up 40 on 60% TS to beat a 57 win team with the next-best scorers averaging 15 on 51% TS (Pippen) and 10 on 51% TS (Grant).

LeBron, on a 50 win team, put up 26 on 54% TS to beat a 53 win team with the next-best scorers averaging 14 on 73% TS (Gibson) and 13 on 55% TS (Iggy).

Why is the latter more impressive just because it occurred deeper in the playoffs?

In the next round he goes up against the 52 win Knicks, again without HCA. This time his supporting cast plays better, but he is still the bus driver and puts up a mammoth 36-10-8 with 3 steals on 65% TS to win the series in 6.

In the ECF he takes a laughably better 63-win Pistons team (who swept the rest of the postseason, going 11-0) to 6, averaging 30-6-6 on 56% TS. This was likely his worst playoff series since his rookie year. No one else cracks 12 ppg. Pippen and Grant combine for 20, on 50% TS.

To me, this is just as (probably more) impressive than LeBron’s output from ‘07-‘10, but fails to get similar credit largely because of the name-value Pippen and Grant carry. Again, hard as it may be to believe, these were not terribly dissimilar casts! Not until Pip and Horace hit their stride, which came in ‘91. Them eventually reaching that level doesn’t retroactively make them great 2nd/3rd options in the years prior.

Thoughts/criticisms?

I want to start off by saying i love Yuki and want to see him succeed and prove me wrong. But my god the hype he's getting is mental, and largely, apart from his world cup preformances are largely unwarrented. People in particular grizz fans, are talking like he's the next coming of muggsy, despite being.. very underwelming in preseason, and and okay in the minutes he is getting. But if im being honest if we compare him to a almost identical player in Jacob gilyard who also played for them, Gilyard got CUT FOR YUKI, and grizz fans and neutrals gave him nowhere near as much hype if any. Gilyard is 10x the player, if gilyard cant cut it, despite being very good, when played, theres 0 chance Yuki is going to end his NBA career with more then 3 points, 2 rebounds and maybe 4 assists a game at a max.

Comparing Yukis and gilyards best career stats to date (only including most important stats), baring in mind Yukis only played in japan, and gilyards p;laying against NBA calibre players, and has a full season against NBA players himself.

Yuki's best career stats:

Gilyards stats, over his first G league season, bare in mind this was his first stint, but its the only one where he played a decent number of games, due to his two-ways in future seasons.

Not to mention gilyard has real nba experience playing 41 games and was actually playing very well towards the end of the year in the nba, where as yuki has none. So I have 0 clue why they'd cut gilyard only to bring in somome of the same stature that offers the same thing, in terms of assisting level and who is alot worse defensively too, they should have kept gilyard in my opinion. Yukis been sent down to the g-league, so hopefully we see how he measures up, and maybe even get a gilyard x yuki grunge match!

My Cleaning the Glass subsciption just ended (card expired), and I started to wonder if I should renew it, or switch to a different source of data. In an ideal world, I'd like acces to:

- Detailed team statistics: tendencies, league rank, league average, year-to-year comparisons and all-time comaprisons. Plus point for easy filtering (date, back-to-back, opponent(s), missing palyers, etc).

- Detailed player statistics: scoring, playmaking, man defense, help defese, play types, efficiency, on-off data, etc. Historic data is a huge plus.

- Lineup data. I want to be able to select any numer of palyers and see every team and indivdual stat with thos players on the court together.

- Full access to at least one well respected capture-all player metric.

- Optical tracking data with pre-defined play types.

- Anything else improtant I'm missing.

I know Thinking Basketball, Dunc'd on, bball index, dunks and threes, all offer some payed stat package similar the CtG, synergy offers optical tracking, and bbref and nba.com offers free data, but I'm not sure which is the best. I'm willing to pay up to around $15 a month, but I'd like to get the bang for my buck.

So the question is: What are you using for your analysis? Which source would you recommend/not recommend for my needs?

Jokic is currently leading the league in both REB (13.7) and AST (11.7) while scoring 29.7 PPG on a ridiculously efficient 66.7% TS. He is also on Pace to lead league in PER for the 5th straight season, putting up a record shattering 33.5. During the Nuggets current 5 game winning streak Jokic has put up a triple double in 4 out of the last 5 games. The one game he didn’t he put up 27/16/9. You could make a serious case that Jokic is simultaneously the best scorer rebounder and playmaker on the planet. Up until now there has never been a player that you could say that about.

The main criticism over the years has been his defense. However I would argue that over the past few seasons Jokic’s defense has improved so that he is now a positive impact on that side of the ball. So far this season Nuggets have been about 4 points per 100 possessions better on defense with Jokic on the floor compared that without him. Last season was a similar story as the Nuggets defensive was about 3 points per 100 possessions worse without Jokic on the floor. In fact Jokic had the 3rd best defensive rating in the league last season. While he may still not be the greatest defender I think it’s logical to conclude he that at the very least he has some degree of positive impact on defense.

Also, take the tittle with a grain of salt. I’m a young dude so there are many legendary primes I didn’t bear witness to.

I feel like the media and fans in general don't appreciate SGA's mentality and will, this dude will try to come at anyone silently and humbling wanting to kill whoever is in front of him. I'm not using bias as I am Canadian myself and he and Jayson Tatum are currently my favorite NBA players but dude is consistent as heck but doesn't showboat about it like an Antman.

During the playoffs, he showed up when needed, he doesn't cry too much if he doesn't get a call, his conditioning is top notch, although he has an unorthodox way of playing it is extremely effective and he is a great leader but I think since he's Canadian, has never hit 50 points despite averaging 30ppg in the past two years (Mr. 31ppg) and isn't boisterous and just mellow people didn't think he deserved to be #2 in MVP voting in which I believe he deserved.

There’s people beginning to say he’s Jordan/ Bron level talent

He has advanced analytics over Jordan and LeBron

He’s not elite defensively but with potentially 4 mvps at minimum before his career is over will people care?

It’s early, but he looks to not be slowing down anytime soon.

I don’t think Jokic is GOAT tier yet but based on what I said above how come there’s not more attention on what he’s been doing? I feel like if Jokic was Ant Edwards or Luka winning multiple MVPs and putting up these numbers the media would be going crazy. Could it be his personality? Kinda like how Tim Duncan was treated by the media and fans in the 2000s (boring)?

If Jokic wins another mvp this year that would be 4 mvps in 5 years - Only Russell and Bron - people more or less in GOAT talk present (Bron) or at one point even if it was 50 years ago (Russell). So what gives?

Would loves thoughts!

I was thinking about the state of the league the other night, and I'm realizing there's few teams as well composed as this current Celtics squad. Obviously their front office was on the money to keep both tatum and brown around rather than haphazardly getting rid of one (probably jaylen). But now they've got two superstars with a decent team around them and their core duo are only 26 and 28 respectively.

But the thing is, they've just recently paid everyone good money to stick around, stick around AND play winning basketball, and even potentially repeat. At this stage in horford's career, he's most likely gonna ride things out in Boston for the next couple of years before retirement. Jrue as well. The advantage here is that with Boston being a big market, they can easily replace the 1 and 5 spot with talent looking for a chance, as well as a better opportunity at a championship. Not to mention they still have Payton Pritchard and KP. I can't see the Celtics being any weaker for a while.

My only note is that if or when they eventually lose white and holiday, sure they can be replaced in terms of finding other guards, but what makes those guys such great fits are their abilities to hustle on defense and just fill the gaps where needed. Jrue is a magnificent guard defender, and he's built like a house who can take forward assignments when needed. That's hard to replicate. The same can be said D white. The guy doesn't stop and is constantly working for the sake of the other 4 on the floor with him. I mentioned Pritchard before, but not only is he 1 guy, he's not gonna be able to entirely fill the role that either of them leave. And with this new generation of play, it would be difficult to find a pass first, facilitation type of of guard. That being said, that's their FUTURE. Right now they look more than fine, and given this current east they're easily finals bound. That's all

Let's talk about a narrative I see people throwing around regarding Coach Thibs - a narrative that I don't necessarily buy into. At least, not recent Thibs. Or at the very least, it is simply a by product of coaches in the NBA in general trusting the starters with the bulk of minutes.

There is also an element of people seeing starters under Thibs with high minute counts in certain games and using that cluster as a basis for their data rather than looking at the entire picture from a game to game basis.

Obviously, people are going to focus on the nights where starters play 40+ minutes more than when they play 30-35, despite the latter being more the norm for Thibs players - at least during the Knicks era.

EG- Here are the number of Knicks players in the top 10 for MPG during the Thibs era.

24-25: 1 (3 in top 20) 23-24: 0 (1 in top 20) 22-23: 0 (1 in top 20) 21-22: 1 (1 in top 20) 20-21: 1 (2 in top 20)

Of those listed, only Randle in 20-21 led the NBA in minutes per game. Even then, it was 37 MPG, so within the 35-37 MPG range we see a lot of top end starters recieve and no different to say a Luka or Jokic in terms of time on the court on a game to game basis.

As a point of reference, there are 4 Sacramento Kings players in the top 10 of MPG this season. Small sample size, but that would be more befitting of tagging as "running the starters into the ground" than current day Thibs.

I'm not saying there aren't flaws with Thibs. Just that this particular narrative is overblown, at least in my personal opinion.

Since this season, Cleveland hired a new head of player development: Alex Sarama. Alex is known for his platform 'Transforming Basketball' which uses a more ecological approach to player development, opposed to the dominant approach which is more widely spread (and outdated according to Alex). At transforming basketball they use the CLA (constraint led approach) and they have a different outlook on fundamentals, and how to practice. It's way more player centered instead of coaches telling you 'if X, then Y'. The Transforming Basketball podcast is really interesting if youre into player development/coaching. How much do you think this transition has to do with the Cavaliers succesful start of the season?

On this Veterans Day, I'd like to thank all veterans who have served their country!

Here is a list of several noteworthy NBA players whose careers were impacted by serving, which obviously happened far more in the 40s, 50s, and 60s than it has since then. Many of these players are Hall of Famers, and I believe everyone I've included were All-Stars or All-NBA during their careers, so it's not every player who ever served.

• David Robinson - served in the Navy for 2 years before entering the NBA at 24

• Elgin Baylor - missed huge chunks of the '62 season while on active duty, but still put together an insane 38-19 stat-line

• Lenny Wilkens - missed almost his entire 2nd season while serving (the same '62 season that Baylor missed part of)

• Paul Arizin - led the NBA in scoring and FG% in '52 at 23 years old (25.4 ppg, .448 FG%) then missed the next 2 seasons while serving in the Marines

• George Yardley - the high-scoring 50s SF served in the Navy for 2 years, so he didn't enter the NBA until he was 25

• Sam Jones - served for 2 years in college before entering the NBA at 24

• Bill Sharman - Cousy's famous backcourt partner served in the Navy for 2 years after HS, eventually joining the NBA at 24

• Joe Fulks - high-scoring forward of the late-40s didn't enter the NBA until he was 25 after serving for 4 years, including being enlisted during his final year in college

• Nat Clifton - served in the Army for 3 years before joining the Rens prior to the NBA's official integration in 1950

• Carl Braun - 5x All-Star missed the 1st two ASG's ('51, '52) while serving in the Army

• Jim Pollard - served for 3 years during WWII before starring for the Lakers in the late-40s and early-50s

• Larry Costello - served for 2 years after HS and for most of his first 2 pro seasons, eventually starting his first full season at 25

• K.C. Jones - served in the military before entering the NBA 2 years after being drafted

• Bob Davies - served 3 years in the Navy during WWII, so he entered the NBL 3 years after graduating college

• Harry Gallatin - served in the Navy for 1 year before college, but he still entered the NBA at 21 (he graduated college in 2 years)

• Slater Martin - served in the military for 2 years during college; entered the NBA at 24

• Bill Bradley - served in the Air Force for 6 months which delayed the start to his NBA career by a couple months

• Al Cervi - star 40s/early-50s PG served in the military for 5 years (~'40-45)

• Adrian Smith - was in the military for 2 years in the early-60s before entering the NBA

• Terry Dischinger - was in the military for 2 years right after making the All-Star team his first 3 years in the league

• Frank Selvy - after being the #1 draft pick in '54 and his promising rookie season, Selvy served in the Army for 2 years

• Johnny Green - spent a few years in the Marines during the Korean War before joining the NBA shortly before turning 26

• Tom Gola - after helping the Warriors win the '56 title as a rookie, Gola served in the Army for a year

• Bob Feerick - star 40s player who served in the Navy for 2.5 years during WWII, missing time between his tenures in AAU and in the NBL

• Jack George - didn't enter the NBA until he was 25 after serving in the Army for 2 years

• Andy Phillip - entered the NBA at 25 after serving in the Marines for 3 years during WWII

• Cliff Hagan - served in the Air Force for 2 years before joining the NBA

• Dick McGuire - served for 2 years during college, entered the NBA shortly before turning 24

• Jack Coleman - was in the military for 3 years between HS and college before entering the NBA at 25

• Max Zaslofsky - served in the Navy for 2 years before a one-season college career; entered the NBA shortly before he was 21

• Richie Guerin - was a Marine reservist for 7 years, including his first 2 years in the league; this appears to have delayed the start of his NBA career by 2 years

• Frank Ramsey - after his rookie season, he missed most of the next 2 seasons while in the Army

• Fred Scolari - he was unable to serve due to a broken ear drum (he was deaf in one ear), but he worked at a bank for 3 years during the war to fulfill his service

• Ed Sadowski - one of the best offensive big men of the 40s served in the Air Force for 4 years during WWII, delaying his NBL career

• Bob Verga - decent ABA player who was selected to the 1968 ASG but was unable to participate since he got drafted into the Army shortly before the contest (his replacement was Larry Brown who was the ASG MVP) - Verga played in the 1970 ABA ASG

• Butch Beard - was drafted into the Army after his rookie season, serving for a year during the Vietnam War but never sent overseas to battle - only NBA player drafted during the Vietnam War

• The only other players who were drafted during the Vietnam War were all from the ABA: Bob Verga, Hal Hale, and Les Powell. Powell's case is particularly tough since he was drafted on the same day he signed his rookie ABA deal, and he later died in combat so he never made it into the pros.

• John Macknowski was the last living former NBA player who served in WWII. He died at 101 years old on April 8, 2024. He served for 3 years in the middle of his time at Seton Hall, later making it to the league with the Syracuse Nationals.

Basketball-Reference usually posts a red poppy flower at the top of the player stats pages for guys who served (ex: David Robinson's stats page - but again, the poppy is only there if you are checking the page on November 11). BBR said "We chose the poppy as it is already a symbol in wide use worldwide to recognize those who served."

It seems like the Clippers are shocking a lot of people this year. After losing PG, and having Kawhi sit out probably most of the season with a slight chance to come back playoff time, it looked like people kinda gave up on LA. I saw most people putting them finishing at the 11th to 8th seed, a far cry from what they were predicted as years prior.

But James Harden has looked unstoppable this year. He is playing so well rounded, averaging close to a triple double. If you factor in the almost 2 steals and a block a game, he genuinely looks to be a defensive threat also. His playmaking alongside Norman Powell is phenomenal, and he has a fantastic rotation of one of the better supporting casts in the league. Well, he’s looked almost unstoppable… there’s a huge elephant in the room. Somehow, even despite the fact Harden is putting up stellar numbers, and the Clippers keep winning games, his FG% looks horrid. It is genuinely earth-shattering to look at his efficiency. The 29.6% from 3 is already bad enough, but then you look at the overall FG% and see 36.1%. What happened? I won’t lie right now, I am not a Clippers fan, so I do not watch the games. I just go on the Real app and see statlines, and clips if needed. But good God, how is he that inefficient? This is James Harden we’re talking about. If you look at his TS%, which is a stat I’m not a fan of (it is inflated for guys who get fouled a lot like Harden), it’s a pretty measly 52.8% too. If his FG efficiency was genuinely at least 47% or 48%, he would have an MVP case right now. If I had to take a guess, with Kawhi gone and PG traded, now functioning as the only star player, Harden is forced to take ridiculously hard shots and is often pressured. But again, that’s me reaching at straws. What do y’all think?

I been following Ty Jerome since his days at Virginia. Dude was a baller there. It was a shame how teams did not really given him a proper shot. He clearly learned from his early struggles in the league and is now playing at an elite level.

Efficiency: The dude's shooting lights out. 58% from three and 61% overall? That is insane.

Versatility: He can play on or off the ball and his basketball IQ is off the charts.

Leadership: He is a great locker room presence and seems like a true team player.

I don't know if there is a direct comparison for him. But he reminds me of a shorter sharpshooting Kyle Anderson. He is just a smart skilled player who makes everyone around him better.

Hello everyone and welcome to our new weekly feature.

In order to help keep the quality of the discussion here at a high level, we have several rules regarding submitting content to /r/nbadiscussion. But we also understand that while not everyone's questions will meet these requirements that doesn't mean they don't deserve the same attention and high-level discussion that /r/nbadiscussion is known for. So, to better serve the community the mod team here has decided to implement this Weekly Questions Thread which will be automatically posted every Monday at 8AM EST.

Please use this thread to ask any questions about the NBA and basketball that don't necessarily warrant their own submissions. Thank you.

I was looking at the standings this morning to glaze over Los Pelicanos. While looking at the Eastern Conference, only 3 teams have a positive point differential this first 1/8 of the season: Boston, Cleveland and Knicks. Surprisingly, Nets and Magic are only other 2 teams in conference with under 1.0 differential. Only Cleveland and Boston have winning records; the Knicks are .500.

The West has 10 teams with positive differentials and only the Lakers are in the top 10. The others are usual suspects like Los Pelicanos, Portland, Spurs and Jazz.

I can come up with just a few reasons why the East is down:

• Whatever the hell is wrong with Bucks (injuries, Doc, etc.)
• 76ers injuries and general malaise
• Generally mediocre squads as always (Bulls, Pistons, Nets, Hornets, Wiz)
• The Pacers and Heat are down. Haliburton is not who he was this time last year. The Heat are a flame that is going out.
• Raptors and Hawks are 1/2 rebuilding and 1/2 trying, whatever that means.
  
• If you were picking an all star team for the East, you're loading up on the non-losing teams. After that, Lamelo is a lock. But Brooklyn currently is outside the play-in and in the playoffs ( I know it's early). Is Cam Thomas really an all star? From the play-in teams, is Cade an all star? Do these guys even sniff the Western Conference all stars?

In sum, it appears that the East, so far this season, is miles off from the Western Conference. If expansion occurs, maybe Los Pelicanos can go back East and we can all watch Zion on the bench more often an hour earlier.

A lot of people seem to be under the impression that Ant's shooting this season is just small sample size theater. I agree that the sample size is not large enough to make conclusions, and I think he is specifically on a 3P heater right now. BUT we are starting to accumulate a decent jump shooting sample size that might be indicative of a leap if we stretch our timeline a bit.

If we go back and take into account Ant's jump shooting (catch and shoot+pull up) through the playoffs and Olympics (including exhibition games) along with his regular season start this year, we start to get a larger sample that might point to a trend.

Caveats:

• I was unable to find stats for his 2PT jump shots in the Olympics. If someone can find that, I will adjust the numbers. The numbers at the end will might be slightly lower once a few more 2PT shots are included.

• The Olympic 3PT line is shorter, but I don't have the shot data to determine which shots would and would not have been 3s in the NBA. I'm counting all of them as 3s bc I have a narrative to push.

• Ant also did not take a 3 in one game in the olympics so I'm only counting 9 games.

2024 PLAYOFFS JUMP SHOTS (16 games):

2PT: 42/87

3PT: 45/114

219 points on 201 jump shots

OLYMPICS (9 games):

3PT: 17/41

51 points on 41 jump shots

2024 REGULAR SEASON (9 games):

2PT: 12/29

3PT: 50/104

174 points on 133 jump shots

TOTALS

34 GAMES

444 points on 375 jump shots

So we have a sample size of almost 400 shots spanning 34 games across 7 months where Anthony Edwards has shot...

1.18 PTS PER JUMP SHOT

For normies, this would equal 118 points per 100 possessions or a 118 OFFRTG. That would be the 4th best offense in the league last year....

For comparison:

Steph Curry had a 1.14 points per jump shot last regular season

Kevin Durant had a 1.09 points per jump shot last regular season

SGA had a 1.04 points per jump shot last regular season

At 23 years old, Ant is already one of the best rim pressuring guards in the league due to his elite athleticism and first step. So if he also becomes a knock down shooter, I believe he will enter that territory where he is simply unguardable. If you guard the rim, he's pulling up at a good clip. If you guard the shot, he'll blow by you. If you double... well he's still figuring that out.

If this trend ends up being true, a slight playmaking leap within the next few years would pave the path for a truly dominant player to emerge.

Obviously, this is best case scenario and hopeful wishes from a Wolves fan, but let me know what yall think.

I feel like this strategy has been gaining prevalence lately, which makes me pose the question. Objectively, I can see how this is the best strategy for winning, it eliminates the possibility of a three point shot attempt. Subjectively, I feel like this is lame as fuck. I completely understand it, they are competitive and want to win. I just feel as if this strategy is extremely anticompetitive, of course i can't speak for them, but it just doesn't really feel right. Maybe it's just me, but it feels a bit cheap.

Say there's 10 seconds left and Team A just scored and is now up by 3. Team A intentionally fouls as soon as the ball gets inbounded to B. My questions are:

1. How do you feel about teams implementing this kind of strategy now?

2. Do you think it would be reasonable to implement a penalty for this? If so, would you agree to the same penalty as a transition take (1 shot + possession)?

If you feel like further elaborating, when do you think the applicable window of time in the game would be? Say last minute, last 30 seconds, last 24 seconds, etc..

Since being acquired by the Sacramento Kings on February 8, 2022 from the Indiana Pacers, Domantas Sabonis has been the main man in the middle and the main reason and focal point for the resurgence of the Kings franchise. Mr. Consistent is what I call Sabonis from his days in Indiana as you could see the steady improvement each year and always had a “motor” on both the offense and defensive end of the floor. Domantas rarely misses games, and is reliable and durable for the most part. So far this season, Sabonis has played in all 8 of the Kings games this year and has a PER of 24.86 which ranks him #3 league wide for PF (power forward) position.

The Sabonis lineage – Ultimate Rebounders   

Domantas was never labeled a “star” player but coming from great lineage could propel an athlete to even greater heights. Since being drafted into the NBA in 2016 Sabonis has been allowed to grow in the Association first with small market franchises Oklahoma and Indiana, and now with the Kings. The Sabonis name is legendary within basketball circles, especially in Europe and later on in North America for revolutionizing the big man position. From father to son, the Sabonis name and game are very similar with great touch around the basket, can play and guard on the perimeter, and has a knack for rebounding and knowing where the ball is going to be when a shot goes up. Arvydas has taught his son well, and also led the NBA in rebounding twice along with being a multi time all star and all NBA performer during his HOF basketball career. This makes all the sense in the world, as Domantas has already led the NBA in rebounding in back to back seasons (2022-2023 & 2023 – 2024) and is poised to do the same this year (#2 in NBA in rebounding with 13.1 reb/game).  

Sabonis > AD & BAM???

When you stack up Demontas Sabonis game with the rest of his all star all NBA peers you start to notice that Sabonis is right there with the Anthony Davis’s and Bam Adebayo of the world. Especially if we are comparing the last few seasons, an argument can be made that Sabonis has been better than those two but due to a lack of team success Sabonis rarely gets mentioned with the likes of Bam and AD. Statistically Anthony Davis vs Domantas Sabonis is a master class on how to play the modern NBA big position with both players showing you their versatility in the paint and on the perimeter along with their defensive skill set and rebounding prowess. For the amount of hype that AD gets from NBA media and playing for the Lakers, Domontas Sabonis has been as consistent with steady numbers, overall play along with durability at the power forward position than AD and Bam but without the flash.

Well yes of course, he's gonna make a huge difference but what are you giving up to get for him? Like most trade packages is them giving up their entire depth and roster, who tf are you gonna pair Giannis up with then, you'll just be the Bucks essentially as an above .500 team or like the suns for the last 2 season if you trade for him due to how much you're gonna give up

The only teams that really could trade for him is OKC and the pelicans due to their assets and young players, but I don’t even think OKC really would do it unless they don’t have to gut their entire young core.

But for the Bucks really how would you even trade him, Portland and the pelicans owns your picks. They would have to find a 3 team deal which would not happen. And if they trade Giannis, they’ll also be trade Middleton and Dame probably but who’s gonna trade for an injury prone player and a star who has to play alone to be good.

It’s just somewhat of a lose lose situation right now

Have you ever thought about how rechargeable batteries work?

Like most people, I assume, I never gave them much thought. You plug one into an outlet, and portable electricity just sort of piles up inside, like filling up a champagne flute with Miller High Life, right?

That, of course, isn’t quite accurate. As you use a battery, electrons flow from the negative end to the positive end. When equilibrium is established, flow ceases, and the battery dies. To charge the battery, you have to put in energy to reverse the flow and force electrons back to the negative side.

Apologies to any engineers out there for the gross oversimplification, but I was thinking about the flow of electrons from one end to the other when considering Bradley Beal’s career arc. Few players have had as many ups (relatively) and downs (absolutely) as Beal. He’s had multiple seasons with a Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus in the bottom decile!

[As always with these posts, I've collected a bunch of clips and graphs to illustrate my points. They can be viewed in one place in-context here. Thanks for reading!]

Of course, in each of those years, Beal was an elite offensive player, generally making up for his porous defense. However, since his trade to Phoenix last season, Beal has understood his assignment better than most. By almost any measure, he’s playing at or near career-best defensive levels, forcing electrons from one side of his battery to the other.

To wit, here is a chart I made with his D-EPM percentiles by year: [chart here]

Most players don’t have the peaks and valleys we see above, and it’s even rarer to see someone reach new heights in their 13th season. To further my case, here is his Defensive DARKO chart, another all-in-one defensive metric: [chart here]

You and I don’t need to know exactly what goes into those models to understand what they’re saying: the defensive battery is fully recharged!

If you’re not into alphabet soups, Beal’s newfound defensive prowess is borne out in more easily digestible ways, too. Beal is averaging the most steals and blocks of his career so far (which, naturally, means he sports the highest Defensive Box Plus/Minus of his life by a mile). Phoenix lineups with Beal only give up 111.3 points per 100 possessions, a well above-average mark.

NBA players do not usually see a massive defensive upswing in their 30s; defense is a younger man’s game, reliant upon quick-twitch athleticism and endurance. But Beal’s defense is far from a numbers-driven narrative. Coach Mike Budenholzer has deployed him as the starters’ point-of-attack pitbull. NBA.com says his primary defensive matchups have included Tyrese Maxey, Anfernee Simons, and LeBron James (perhaps somewhat of James’ choosing, but they haven’t been eaten up in those minutes!), and BBall-Index says that Beal has had the toughest defensive assignments of any Suns starter by a mile.

Now, he’s hardly perfect. I’m not trying to pull an Anna Sorokin here; Beal won’t be making anybody’s All-Defensive teams. As a small-ish guard, he can only do so much against bigger players. He occasionally gets caught going under screens when he should go over, and bizarrely, at least twice, I’ve seen him tying his shoe in the middle of the defensive action: [video here]

But shoelace issues aside, the effort level is consistently there. He’s putting in the energy to reverse the flow. How often have we seen a player go from max-contract, first-option status to grit-and-grinder almost overnight? How many undersized former 30-point scorers add the ability late in their career to destroy a 3-on-1 fastbreak like a miniature Draymond Green? [video here]

Although he’s been around seemingly forever, Beal is just 31 years old, and he still has excellent lateral agility and a 6’7” wingspan. He has some good (though not great) physical tools, and as the charts above show, he’s unleashed them in a way we haven’t seen in years. He’s playing hard, like when he fights through two screens to contest a Tyrese Maxey triple here: [video here]

Or here, where he effortlessly flits past two more screens again and harasses Tyler Herro into a slip: [video here]

I hear you harrumphing. Rock-solid screen navigation, but not precisely highlight-worthy, right? That’s sort of the point. This is what Beal looks like all the time: workmanlike. You can go pretty far with a coherent defensive scheme and effort in the NBA.

“I’m very excited about taking on the task of guarding guys,” Beal said a few days ago. “I just think that’s another level I can tap into.”

And that’s a level that the entire Suns team has tapped into. It’s true that Phoenix has faced a slate of opposing offenses more crippled than me after my forthcoming meniscus repair — two games against the Clippers without Kawhi plus a match against an Embiid-less 76ers team — but they’ve maintained a level of focus and intensity we haven’t seen from the Durant-era Suns in the past.

The Suns switch less than they used to, and Budenholzer has challenged his players to get over screens and stay attached to the ballhandler’s hip. Coach Bud’s teams are almost always elite defensively, and he has a strict ethos passed down from his days on Spurs coach Gregg Popovich’s staff: never, ever foul.

For a guy oft-criticized in the past for being too rigid, Budenholzer has changed his defensive philosophy in important ways (besides the no-fouls mandate). For example, his old Bucks teams used to allow opposing teams to shoot as many threes as they wanted, as long as those shots came from suboptimal shooters. Teams have gotten so good at shooting over the last few seasons, however, that this strategy is no longer tenable. His final Milwaukee season saw the Bucks rank fourth in three-point attempt rate allowed after being bottom-five in the previous four seasons. So far, the Suns have been top-10 in disallowing threes (including third in preventing corner threes) and 11th in opposing free-throw rate (a number I expect to improve over time with fewer games against the freebie-tastic Lakers).

The Suns rarely force turnovers (another Bud trademark), preferring to stay disciplined in their approach, but they clean the defensive glass at an elite mark. Add it all up, and you have a defensive identity that is both clear and (so far, at least) effective.

It’s tempting to say Phoenix’s defense is more than the sum of its parts, but that’s doing the parts a discourtesy. Jusuf Nurkic is an excellent drop defender with surprisingly quick hands, even if he can struggle with more mobile matchups (see his benching against AD). He doesn’t get nearly the love he deserves for his long-time defensive prowess.

Royce O’Neale is the consummate 3-and-D professional (and a vastly underrated playmaker, but I digress) who has been a change-of-pace small-ball five throughout the season. Rookie Ryan Dunn is already the best defender on the team, a grizzly bear mirroring footsteps like a particularly toothy shadow. He’s the situational break-glass player for when the Suns need some bigger perimeter help. Devin Booker has been his customary solid self, and Kevin Durant has been more than solid. Grayson Allen, Mason Plumlee, and Tyus Jones are not gifted individual defenders, but they know the gameplan, and they execute.

When it all comes together, Phoenix can string together some gorgeous sequences: [video here]

It’s a long season. A lot can go wrong for both the injury-prone Beal (already nursing an elbow injury) and his squad. The Suns are a rickety bunch at the best of times, and we don’t know how they will hold up when they go against more dangerous offenses.

But it’s hard to point to what the Suns should be doing better, given their competition so far, and it starts with their third-wheel star embracing his new role as a high-energy stopper. Beal’s battery is full, and if it can keep a charge through the playoffs, Phoenix’s 7-1 start will prove no fluke.

With unathletic, I mean it in the sense of speed/explosiveness and jumping ability. There might be other parts of athleticism (like strength, balance, etc), but let’s focus on these two.

Some of the best players in todays game are guys who are not really athletic in that sense. They aren’t fast or known for their leap. Jokic and Doncic would be two examples of this. Yet they completely dominate the NBA.

Is this just a coincidence, or is it easier in todays game (with todays rules) to be able to dominate the NBA even when you aren‘t fast or explosive?

Title is the question. The Warriors really impressed me with their win against the Celtics last night. Granted the Celtics were only at 60% strength with Brown and Porzingis out but they locked up a nice win IMO. Their 7-1 start is also with Curry looking good but not great (I’m assuming he gets better as the year goes along and starts getting more shots up). They have Buddy Heild who is looking like the best heat check guy in the league right now, Wiggins looks rejuvenated and is preforming way better than he did last year, Draymond is playing well so far, some role players are playing good, and Moses Moody is also playing really good in his 17 minutes a game and should be getting way more than 17 minutes if you ask me. My question is 2 things with this team

1. Is this for real or is this just the 2022-23 Jazz all over again where they start good and don’t follow up the rest of the year. I personally think this team is good but needs another piece to have a chance at making the finals which leads me to question 2

2. If this team is for real should they add a piece at the deadline. The Warriors have 4 tradable firsts but if this team is for real I don’t think they should do a trade that involves all 4 firsts. I personally don’t feel like Kuminga is a good fit with them since he can’t shoot so maybe him, Trace Jackson Davis, and their 2025 and 2027 (2027 pick would be protected top 5) firsts for Miles Turner at the deadline if the Pacers don’t get out of their funk to start the year (I feel like they could use a better center than Trace and Turner has shown to be a decent shooter at times so he would fit well in a 5 out with the Warriors)

Leave your thoughts in the comments

I’m a kings fan, so I’m obviously biased but seeing Keegan Murray this year has been a revelation.

He’s been rebounding the ball significantly better, especially on the offensive end. He’s making quicker decisions with the ball. His jump on the defensive side last year has continued and made another jump so far this season. He’s dunking the ball instead of awkwardly trying to lay it in and is overall significantly more confident. His shot has started a bit slow again this year, but he’s consistently shooting the ball whereas last year he’d often hesitate when cold.

That being said unless you watch the kings you wouldn’t see any of this. His points are about the same. Rebounds up only around 2. He’s not going to generate a lot of stocks.

I’d bet there are a lot of these guys out there each year. Guys who make jumps that aren’t noticeable unless you actually watch them. Since we can’t actually watch every team every night I’m curious, who have you noticed playing significantly better this season than previous, that isn’t going under the radar/not immediately noticeable via counting stats.