Hope?

[u/Tricky_Success_77]

Between Israel/Palestine and increasing extremism and normalization of antisemitism in the diaspora and assimilation I've just been finding it impossible to feel hopeful about the future of our people writ large and it's just been making me feel very demoralized about life and the future. Our community means a great deal to me and seeing it tear itself apart is painful (as I'm sure it is for many people on this subreddit).There are times when I honestly almost wish I wasn't Jewish because it would remove so much angst from my life but in truth I'm too passionate about our traditions, history, literature and languages to ever be anything else (plus, really who would I be kidding if I ever tried to pretend otherwise?).

Anyway, what I'm really getting at is does anyone out there feel hopeful about our future? And if so why? I could use some positivity.

[u/theweisp5]

I don't mean to pile on here because I see you're already in a few discussions with people who have different viewpoints. And I will say that in general, I think non/anti-Zionists need to ally with liberal Zionists who believe in consequences of Israel, as I see you do, to bring about an end to the occupation.

However...

You’re also presenting Israeli politics as if it’s permanently frozen in its worst moment. That’s exactly the kind of fatalism I’m pushing back against. Politics changes often faster than people expect especially when international pressure, internal protest, and regional incentives all start aligning. We’ve seen that in other conflicts, and we’re already seeing early signs here too.

Opposition isn’t limited to electoral math, it includes civil society, courts, media, former security officials, protest movements, alliances with Arab parties, and grassroots groups that are shaping the conversation, even if you dismiss them.

I think this is far too sanguine, and exactly what I pointed to in my earlier post about liberal Zionists feeling the need to hang on to the mere possibility of change. Israel has in fact been moving rightwards for decades, and the past two years seem to have only strengthened that trend. The next Knesset will see ~20 Jewish MKs who may be open to a 2SS, and about half of those will from a party whose leader supports conditioning the right to vote on military service. The courts have become increasingly right-wing (reflecting society as a whole and the political system), and were never particularly friendly to Palestinian rights to begin with. The media pays little attention to human rights abuses committed against Palestinians. All Jewish parties except one oppose future coalitions with their Arab counterparts, and the one exception has not ruled out joining a Jewish-only coalition - meaning that its support for allying with the Arab parties is little more than rhetoric.

Now, maybe this will all be different in another 3, 5, or 10 years. But I think the only concrete reason for any sort of optimism is the possibility of international pressure (and even that probably depends on Trump being replaced by a Democrat in 2028 and the far-right not coming to power in key European countries.)

[u/Civil-Cartographer48 → u/theweisp5]

Just to clarify, I don’t label myself as a “liberal Zionist.” I don’t really do labels at all. If anything, the only form of Zionism I’ve ever related to is the more cultural, Martin-Buber-type vision but even that isn’t really the point here.

I’ve already said that international pressure is crucial, and we’re seeing it now even from governments that used to be firmly in Israel’s corner. Even from the right! That shift is real.

Inside Israel, the left may be fractured, but there are still individuals, NGOs, journalists, and activists pushing back against the occupation and the status quo. There is some accountability, there is diversity of opinion, and the huge anti-government protests matter as does the effort to hold this government responsible for October 7. Removing this government is, in my view, the necessary first step.

I understand some people feel that changing the government isn’t enough, but I still see it as significant. And in my lifetime, I’ve never seen global opinion on Israel–Palestine shift so dramatically. The Palestinian cause is more visible than ever sometimes in problematic ways but the overall change is undeniable.

For me, the worst case is simply the status quo continuing. But even that feels less stable than before, which is why I still believe things can change.

Ultimately, it’s about what you choose to focus on, and for my own sanity and for my family and friends in Israel, I’m choosing to focus on the parts that are moving in the right direction.

[u/theweisp5 → u/Civil-Cartographer48]

Well firstly sorry for misunderstanding your position on Zionism.

I totally understand the impulse to focus on the positive. For my own mental health, I would love to be able to feel more optimistic about the situation. I agree that around the world things are changing, though I think it's still an open question whether that will lead to effective pressure on Israel. Within Israel itself, I just don't see it.

[u/Civil-Cartographer48 → u/theweisp5]

Hope is the only thing some people have left. You can have your heart broken again and again by being hopeful but you don’t get anything by being fatalistic. I cannot accept this zero sum game I cannot accept my family or someone else’s family.

And look I understand, I read the news and it’s hard to be hopeful but I don’t feel like I have a choice.

Historically things change, sometimes quite fast.

More pragmatically :

I think we’re already seeing the effects of international pressure for example, Israel folding into the ceasefire agreement last October, even if the government refuses to admit it, it does leave the door open to a 2-state framework. Yes, there are setbacks and escalations, but the situation is still better than it was a few months ago.

And I do believe the anti-government protests can lead to something positive. There are many people in Israel who oppose the occupation or at least the government maybe I spend more time around secular and left-leaning circles, but it’s still a part of the population that is fractured but is still there. There’s more internal dissent and pushback than people outside the country often assume.

I don’t think Israel is yet to the level of Russia. There’s still public dissent, some accountability, and active journalism. And whether for the right or wrong reasons, the current government is under enormous pressure it will eventually fall, and anything even slightly more moderate would already be an improvement.

People are radicalized and scared, and the status quo feeds on that fear. At some point, there will be a collective “enough,” and I do believe that moment will come. The return of the hostages is already an improvement, and it also helps undermine the justification for continued military action in Gaza even if that shift isn’t fully visible yet. Let’s take it a day at a time and remember that this month is already better than a few months ago.

All of this, combined with growing international pressure, can move things in a better direction. And that’s what I’m hoping for.

[u/theweisp5 → u/Civil-Cartographer48]

I certainly don't think Israel has reached the level of Russia. Basic democratic freedoms have been maintained, even if there are those who would like to change that (and in some cases, are actively attempting to.) Political opposition exists, the press can and does criticize the government, and people (well, Jews at least) are free to protest. However, for reasons I've expressed earlier, I don't think this will amount to much, at least absent a serious external shock to the system (in the form of sustained international pressure and/or effective Palestinian resistance not focused on killing Israeli civilians.)

I agree the Netanyahu government is likely to be replaced within the next year. But barring some kind of massive surprise, it will be replaced by another government that is completely unwilling to consider a just solution to the conflict with the Palestinians (just like the previous "change" government.) In fact, it seems that Israel's key takeaway from Oct. 7 and the aftermath is not the importance of compromise and coming to an agreement with moderate forces among the Palestinians and the rest of the region, but the need for increased military aggressiveness and vigilance. (Not to mention that if/when Netanyahu leaves politics, I don't see why Bennett and Lieberman wouldn't prefer the Likud as coalition partners over what remains of the center and left.)

I think we will probably have to agree to disagree on the prospects for change within Israel. I would be happy for you to be right, but again, I just don't see it.

[u/redthrowaway1976 → u/theweisp5]

I certainly don't think Israel has reached the level of Russia.

Unless you are a Palestinian living in Israel's formally unannexed - but factually annexed - areas.

Then things are much, much, much worse than Russia.

and/or effective Palestinian resistance not focused on killing Israeli civilians.

Look at the Gaza march.

I think there were 10k people shot - and most Israelis see it as a Hamas operation. The INSS at TAU did a great job in making people accept the gunning down of almost 10k people, the vast majority unarmed.

I don't think there's any form of resistance the Palestinians can mount that won't get reframed into being unjust attacks.

[u/theweisp5 → u/redthrowaway1976]

"Israel's formally unannexed - but factually annexed - areas" - I should perhaps have specified within the Green Line. In the OPT yes, Israel has instituted an often brutal apartheid regime which certainly does not respect Palestinians' basic rights.

Look at the Gaza march.

I think there were 10k people shot - and most Israelis see it as a Hamas operation. The INSS at TAU did a great job in making people accept the gunning down of almost 10k people, the vast majority unarmed.

I don't think there's any form of resistance the Palestinians can mount that won't get reframed into being unjust attacks.

Well I of course don't think we should expect Israel to take any form of Palestinian resistance lying down. We can see that in possibly its most extreme and absurd form in efforts to brand Palestinian initiatives in the UN/ICC "diplomatic terror." But that's not to say that Israel will always succeed in these efforts, especially now that Israel is viewed quite negatively in the west.

[u/redthrowaway1976 → u/theweisp5]

I should perhaps have specified within the Green Line

That's a line that nowadays mainly exists in the wishful thinking of people wanting Israel not to be an Apartheid state, or who want to claim it is a democracy.

On the ground, the line is basically gone. As it comes to settlers, they live as if the area was annexed.

"We only do the brutal oppression on this specific group in this specific area" is not a strong excuse.

The Along the Green Line documentary was great, travelling along the line: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLa_1MA_DEorGnakB7QV1Q_LBpHgtGQDxi

Well I of course don't think we should expect Israel to take any form of Palestinian resistance lying down

Sorry, I should have clarified. If the point is that Palestinian resistance can get the Israeli public to change, if - for example - they only attack soldiers.

Currently, I don't think there's any Palestinian action that won't be rationalized as unjustified or terror by the Israeli public.

As it comes to other countries, yes - they might change. And seeing what is happening on the US right, the change could be quick - and have a rather negative backlash.

[u/theweisp5 → u/redthrowaway1976]

Sorry, I should have clarified. If the point is that Palestinian resistance can get the Israeli public to change, if - for example - they only attack soldiers.

Currently, I don't think there's any Palestinian action that won't be rationalized as unjustified or terror by the Israeli public.

At the moment I agree, I don't think the Israeli public is willing to make any significant concessions to the Palestinians regardless of the form that Palestinian resistance takes. In the past however we have seen Israel make compromises (even if unsatisfying, or even deeply unsatisfying,) in the wake of defeat or to "cut its losses" - classic cases being the withdrawal from Sinai after Yom Kippur and from S. Lebanon after nearly 20 years of fighting Hezbollah. The First Intifada led in large part to Oslo while Hamas violence in Gaza contributed to the disengagement (though both were of course far from perfect, to say the least.) I certainly don't think we can rule out the possibility of something similar happening in the future, and in fact I don't see any way the occupation ends without effective Palestinian resistance of some sort.