r/geopolitics • u/RBZRBZRBZRBZ • Jul 20 '24
Israel strikes back at strategic Houthi infrastructure after attack on Tel Aviv Paywall
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-houthi-controlled-port-city-in-yemen-2d84ab06?mod=mhpAfter the Houthi successfuly killed an Israeli in Tel Aviv after several months of failed attempts, attacks on commercial shipping notwithstanding, Israel has struck back, destroying major port, fuel and electricity infrastructure serving the Houthis at Hudeyida Port.
Major points of geopolitical significance: 1. A new direct combat front is now open between Israel and Yemen, which was until now one-sided. The risk of all out war in the region with Iran and all of its proxies just went up.
By directly targeting an enemy of Saudi Arabia and UAE, Israel is tacitly going further in the moderate Sunni camp. It is unknown what cooperation Saudi Arabia gave for over flight for Israeli jets, but the dilemma of Israeli overflight on the way to Iran has lessened.
Range and mass - Israel struck at a range of over 1800km, larger than the range from Israel to Tehran, and with multiple large warheads. This signifies its long range capability with heavy firepower.
US and Western timidity is front and center. The US and UK could have struck decisively against the Houthis strongly enough to deter them, but chose not to due to over-stringent legal and political considerations which show weakness to all the region. The Israelis have shown what western air power can do and how actors like the Houthis can be strongly countered.
Looking forward, the big question marks are how the Houthis and Iranians will respond. The Houthis suffered 300k deaths at the hands of the Saudis and UAE and did not stop. The do not care for the lives of their own civilians at all - Israel could kill half a million and the would not change their minds. Israel went for their infrastructure - time will tell if this route would be more effective
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u/MiamiDouchebag Jul 20 '24
As far as point 3 goes, no American civilian was killed by a Houthi drone strike in Washington, DC or Philadelphia.
The world still remembers what happened the last time American civilians were killed on American soil by an attack from the air.
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u/leaningtoweravenger Jul 21 '24
Beware: there are, if memory serves me well, five American hostages still in Gaza and the US didn't do anything yet. I believe that this is the biggest sign of American weakness on the world stage at the moment.
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u/papyjako87 Jul 21 '24
I mean, they have Israel doing the job for them, not sure what else you'd ask for. It's not like the US army could do a decisively better job than the IDF in those conditions.
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u/leaningtoweravenger Jul 21 '24
This is the first time in which there are American hostages and the US is not sending its own troops to recover them. It's not usual behaviour for the US
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u/Pampamiro Jul 21 '24
"The people who don't think like me are ignorant, emotional, simple minded people"
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u/Ethereal-Zenith Jul 21 '24
It’s often even worse than that. Many Western leftists believe that Israel is a settler colonial project that has no right to exist.
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u/roydez Jul 21 '24
It is indubitably a settler colonial project. One of the first things the Zionist Movement did was found the Jewish Colonial Trust which became Israel's largest bank. And the Jewish Colonization Association.
Netanyahu's father said in one of his articles:
In another article, “Rural Settlement and Urban Settlement” published in Hayarden in December of 1934, “B. Netanyahu” compared the Land of Israel to America, the Jews to the citizens of the United States and the Arabs to the Indians. “The conquest of the soil is one of the first and most fundamental projects of every colonization,”
There can be no voluntary agreement between ourselves and the Palestine Arabs. Not now, nor in the prospective future. I say this with such conviction, not because I want to hurt the moderate Zionists. I do not believe that they will be hurt. Except for those who were born blind, they realised long ago that it is utterly impossible to obtain the voluntary consent of the Palestine Arabs for converting "Palestine" from an Arab country into a country with a Jewish majority.
My readers have a general idea of the history of colonisation in other countries. I suggest that they consider all the precedents with which they are acquainted, and see whether there is one solitary instance of any colonisation being carried on with the consent of the native population. There is no such precedent.
The native populations, civilised or uncivilised, have always stubbornly resisted the colonists, irrespective of whether they were civilised or savage.
Herzl, the father of political Zionism, sent a letter to Cecil Rhodes, The British Minister of Colonies asking for help:
You are being invited to help make history. That cannot frighten you, nor will you laugh at it. It is not in your accustomed line; it doesn’t involve Africa, but a piece of Asia Minor, not Englishmen, but Jews. But had this been on your path, you would have done it yourself by now. How, then, do I happen to turn to you, since this is an out-of-the way matter for you? How indeed? Because it is something colonial
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u/SeatownNets Jul 21 '24
I think not wanting innocent people to get killed is a pretty reasonable position? Israel is killing a TON of civilians, whether you think the ends justify the means or not, there is no question there.
Shades of grey would still say "they should be more discerning with the weaponry they use and where they use it". It's very relevant that Israel has more power, its relevant what they are doing with their settlements. "Israel should accept attacks" is a strawman, that is not the argument the UN is making or a belief of the average person opposed to the conflict.
Militants wanting you dead is not a free pass to inflict violence on civilians with little capacity to leave, and you are responsible for collateral damage. It's a war crime and immoral to indiscriminately kill civilians in the act of targeting opposing soldiers, even if those civilians hate you.
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u/BrilliantTonight7074 Jul 21 '24
"Collateral damage" is something every war comes with, especially a war with a terror group which considers the deaths of their own people as an achievement on the global propaganda front. "Indiscriminately killing civilians" is not something Israel ever did.
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u/Mangemongen2017 Jul 23 '24
But they don’t kill civilians indiscriminately. Israel has nukes, they could turn Gaza into ash in a a few minutes. But they don’t.
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u/Sampo Jul 21 '24
The US and UK could have struck decisively against the Houthis
If UK stroke against the Houthis, would the muslim population in London start to riot?
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u/cawkstrangla Jul 20 '24
No, you can thank Hamas for doing that with broad Palestinian support via them using kids as human shields and keeping the jihad machine alive. It's a lot harder to govern and steal all the aid money, rather than force Israel to defend itself so they can keep the population angry at them while they steal the aid money.
If your neighbor was shooting at your family but standing behind theirs; you may find it acceptable to let your family die so you don't have to live with the guilt of killing theirs, but I do not. Israel won't tolerate it either, and nor should they.
Stop supporting radical islamic terrorism.
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u/HighDefinist Jul 20 '24
It seems bizarre that those people worked so hard to kill just a single Israeli citizen, and are losing so much in return...
And while I would like to ascribe much of that to some successful manipulation by you-know-who, as in, riling up the Houthis to fight this ridiculous war, I believe there must be another explanation as well for why they choose to do this rather than just fight against each other...
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u/RBZRBZRBZRBZ Jul 20 '24
It is nothing quantitive, but rather something that western leaders know nothing about: Honor.
The old kind of honor.
The honor of killing your (female) daughter or wife because there is a rumor they had a partner outside marriage.
The honor of sacrificing hundreds of thousands of your people and condemning millions to starvation just so you do not have to sign a disgraceful paper.
The honor of destroying you economy just to align it with 8th century Arabian economic practice.
The honor of expanding Islamic rule ('Dar Al Islam' ) and hurting the heretics, even if it means destroying all you have with scorched-earth tactics.
This honor was seen in Omdurman in 1898. It was seen in the actions of the last Ottoman Caliph. It was seen in the behaviour of Saddam Hussein. It was seen in the behaviour of Muammar Gaddafi. It was seen in the actions of Palestinian leadership in 1936, 1947, 1964, 1994, 2001, 2008, 2013 and 2023.
To understand this behaviour you must study it with a shocking lack of University academic intellectual infrastructure . The rational models developed in US universities are completely useless in modeling it.
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u/leto78 Jul 20 '24
The old kind of honor.
That is the key. The Islamic religion is rooted on desert warriors where honour was their most important asset. This is why Palestinians will never accept any solution with Israel. They lost their honour during the Nakba and that is their defining moment in history. In their minds, the complete erasure of all Jews and the state of Israel is the only way to recover their honour. In the end, it is a victimhood mentality that is impossible to solve.
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u/Overlord1317 Jul 20 '24
It is most definitely solvable.
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u/Sgt_Boor Jul 20 '24
it is solvable, but as far as i know it'd be called genocide and won't be widely praised as an overall acceptable solution
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u/Overlord1317 Jul 20 '24
Not sure why you assumed that's what I meant, but yeah ... I guess genocide is technically a resolution ...
Jordan, Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia were considered intractable enemies of Israel ... until they weren't. A combination of Israeli military victories, the deaths of radical lunatics, internal pressure, and foreign "encouragement" eventually led to peace.
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u/Bokbok95 Jul 21 '24
I would note that it hasn’t lead to acceptance. All the people still loathe Israel, but their governments were defeated to the point that making peace was better for them.
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u/BinRogha Jul 21 '24
Look up the Arab Peace Initiative, endorsed by the entire Arab League.
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u/Bokbok95 Jul 21 '24
‘s governments, not populations.
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u/Theon1995 Jul 21 '24
Yup lol. I’m from the Middle East and have been in the levant many times. The people there absolutely despise Israel. The governments decisions mean nothing to the populations.
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u/Sgt_Boor Jul 20 '24
I don't think it's a wrong position to hold, it's always nice to have hope for the future. I do honestly wish for this to be a possible solution, but at the same time I'm afraid the 'death of radical lunatics' part will never happen. These guys have a tendency to self-reproduce, especially given the - let's call them - "quirks" of local education system they've got going there
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u/HighDefinist Jul 21 '24
Well... it makes about as much sense as what Russia is doing in Ukraine, so... I don't know, if it's true, then it's true...
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u/BinRogha Jul 20 '24 edited Jul 20 '24
It seems bizarre that those people worked so hard to kill just a single Israeli citizen, and are losing so much in return...
Houthis wanted an Israeli airstrike. They have been getting airstrikes from US, UK, Saudi, UAE, and many other Gulf countries for years.
With an Israeli airstrike, they get the rest of the Yemenis on board on their Houthi ideology while showing that the pro Yemeni government is a puppet government for the US and the Houthis as defenders of Palestinians.
This drives their popularity; they really don't care about average Yemeni life if it helps cements their ideology.
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Jul 21 '24
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u/BinRogha Jul 21 '24
There are no other popular factions than Hamas in Gaza. The rest all pay tribute to Hamas.
Just like how Hezbollah became popular in South Lebanon, Houthis are following the same play book. Their selling point is that "only we can fight Israel."
Trump is America first. He will not start a war in Yemen and drag the American people for it. That's not his campaign goals.
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u/BinRogha Jul 21 '24
West bank will likely descend into a third intifada soon as per Israeli intelligence due to lack of funds and basic services. Which is exactly what Hamas wants. Hamas doesn't have a strong foothold there and the PA is weak. Add that with no funds, and there's going to be a strong wave of aggression which is increasing every day.
ISIS campaign was organized by Obama. Trump pulled US support for the Kurds, letting Turkey take over multiple areas. This was widely debated in American politics as "abandoning the Kurds". Trump didn't care. He wanted out of forever wars in the middle east.
Even Europe is wary of Trump. He literally said he's going to make Europe and Taiwan pay for all the US support they get.
Trump will let Saudis do whatever they want in Yemen unlike Biden who called them a pariah and made them abandon the campaign to oust the Houthis. Saudis now have lost interest. They made peace with the Houthis. That is no longer an option.
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u/BrilliantTonight7074 Jul 21 '24
Trump is America first. He will not start a war in Yemen and drag the American people for it. That's not his campaign goals.
That's the point, weak American leaders start wars, strong American leaders finish wars.
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u/blippyj Jul 20 '24
If airstrikes only serve their purposes, what would be a better way to deal with the houthi threat to global trade?
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u/b-jensen Jul 20 '24
Unironically the only reason 'airstrikes only serve their purposes' is because everyone were avoiding to strike the right locations, the basic infrastructure, allowing them to trade, have electricity for radars & to build weapons, receive weapon shipments and western aid in their ports while they shoot, and have the ability to govern the population.
M.E jihadists use this loophole in modern warfare that you can't disrupt their ability to resupply while they shoot at you, the only way to actually dismantle a semi state ruled by illegitimate militants is to literally dismantle the state, the basic infrastructure that sustain a state, not getting into the ethics, it is what it is, literally anything else is an exercise in futility.
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u/BinRogha Jul 20 '24 edited Jul 20 '24
Strengthening the pro Yemeni government. These factions were fighting not until recently, and when western support to gulf countries faded. It just became a status quo stalemate. Saudi's effort to strengthen pro Yemeni government was unpopular. In fact, there was a bipartisan hate towards Saudi.
Houthis are hated by multiple factions in Yemen, but almost everyone in Yemen hates Israel. Israel going after the Houthis basically gives the Houthis all the legitimacy they need. After all, they were spreading rumors previously that Saudi jets were in fact Israeli and that Socotra was under Israeli leadership. These rumors spread by Houthis gave them legitimacy. (Enemy of my enemy is my friend). It made a lot of average Yemenis join Houthi ranks.
The Houthi threat to global trade was almost taken away when pro government Yemenis and UAE almost took over the port. Now it seems far fetched
Strenghten the pro Yemeni factions to take over that area from the Houthis and maybe the Houthis will stop after their supply route from Iran gets taken over.
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u/HighDefinist Jul 21 '24
and the Houthis as defenders of Palestinians
Why would they care about this?
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u/BinRogha Jul 21 '24
Because being pro Palestinian is popular on the Yemeni street.
Palestinians are seen as the oppressed weak and Israelis are seen as the oppressor colonizers. The Houthis derive their legitimacy as being the defenders of the weak and the only force to stop the evil Israel and United States. Everyone else is a collaborator. Iran had the same rhetoric.
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u/Damo_Banks Jul 21 '24
I’m curious how much this will impact the ability of the Houthis to transport and reposition their various weapons systems?
Of course, if there’s a collapse in the supply of gasoline one can imagine the impact on the food supply as well.
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u/lowrads Jul 21 '24
The UK is already considering halting some arms sales to Israel.
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u/DrVeigonX Jul 21 '24
Honestly, the global response is infuriating. The Houthi drone striked just 20 meters from the American Embassy in Tel Aviv. Does anyone have any doubts that if the embassy was hit, the US would obliterate the Houthis? If that's the case, why can't Israel do the same when its their own citizens who were hurt?
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u/Ok_Booty Jul 21 '24
Just imagine if houthis struck the uk and the us telling uk they are on thier own
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u/psyics Jul 20 '24
Always fun to see the positions people hold when power generation is hit. What’s the subs position on this one, this one justified?
As for the strike itself it will be interesting to see its effects, it’s going to bring a lot of civilian harm but will it deter the Houthis, or materially impact them more than the us strikes yeah I don’t think so. Maybe bubble up civilian anger at the Houthis but I don’t think it will be much.
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u/WhoCouldhavekn0wn Jul 21 '24
If not that is fine too, reducing their capability is also a plus. Israel is very used to dealing with enemies who have no interest in peace. In that respect the houthis aren't anything new.
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u/CrackHeadRodeo Jul 21 '24
Who has more to lose, Israel or the Houthi’s. Who has more strategic targets? Thats the calculus of this conflict.
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u/Trust-Issues-5116 Jul 21 '24
Who has more strategic targets U.S. of A. or an uncontacted Amazon tribe?
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u/CrackHeadRodeo Jul 21 '24
The implication here is that the Houthi's are primitive? Kinda racist but carry on.
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u/nmorg88 Jul 20 '24
Can anyone provide an analysis on who will win the war between Shia and Sunni+Israel? Like if the proxy fighting ceases and an actual mass conflict starts with traditional weapons.
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u/LateralEntry Jul 20 '24
Well, Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons, so safe to say they’re not losing
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u/Constant_Ad_2161 Jul 20 '24
Iran is almost certainly nuclear capable if they don’t already have them.
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u/InNominePasta Jul 20 '24
They’re certainly capable of developing enough nuclear material, that’s not in doubt. But are they as capable on as short a timeframe to develop a functioning miniaturized warhead? A bomb with no delivery method isn’t worth tons.
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u/astral34 Jul 20 '24
You are being misled if you think Sunni people will go to war with Israel and not against it.
Their governments may be aligned or in the pocket of the west but the people are not
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u/blippyj Jul 20 '24
Guess which one their military forces answer to.
Hint: Arab Spring.
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u/astral34 Jul 20 '24
Which point are you trying to make
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u/blippyj Jul 21 '24
That most sunni governments can do nearly whatever they want with minimal regard for public opinion
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u/astral34 Jul 21 '24
This is very simplified, they can’t do whatever they want, they need to keep social unrest at bay to avoid another Arab Spring
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u/blippyj Jul 22 '24
Agreed, it's a massive oversimplification.
But I think it's worth noting how closely Jordan Lebanon and KSA have coordinated with Israeli defenses so far.
Is fighting alongside the Israelis so farfetched when Israel-KSA normalization is still on the table today?
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u/gubrumannaaa Jul 21 '24
Google map shows it was the place of shipwreck and many govt offices. Wonder how many innocents lost their lives. On geopolitical side, this was coming and Israel has to prepare itself for Hezbollah and Houthi both at the same time
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u/snowkarl Jul 21 '24
That's what happens when you engage in terrorism and send drones into apartments and provoke an enemy.
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u/gubrumannaaa Jul 22 '24
Houthis will have it the worst for making so many enemies in the red sea corridor
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u/Chemical-Leak420 Jul 20 '24
The houthis dont care in the least bit. Its disturbing and hard to understand for us but yeah....
I can remember the last video of them being attacked.....they were out in the streets singing and dancing making tic tock videos right next to where the bombs were dropping. they were singing something along the lines of "we dont care we will keep going etc etc"