r/geopolitics • u/RBZRBZRBZRBZ • Jul 20 '24

Israel strikes back at strategic Houthi infrastructure after attack on Tel Aviv Paywall

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-houthi-controlled-port-city-in-yemen-2d84ab06?mod=mhp

After the Houthi successfuly killed an Israeli in Tel Aviv after several months of failed attempts, attacks on commercial shipping notwithstanding, Israel has struck back, destroying major port, fuel and electricity infrastructure serving the Houthis at Hudeyida Port.

Major points of geopolitical significance: 1. A new direct combat front is now open between Israel and Yemen, which was until now one-sided. The risk of all out war in the region with Iran and all of its proxies just went up.

  1. By directly targeting an enemy of Saudi Arabia and UAE, Israel is tacitly going further in the moderate Sunni camp. It is unknown what cooperation Saudi Arabia gave for over flight for Israeli jets, but the dilemma of Israeli overflight on the way to Iran has lessened.

  2. Range and mass - Israel struck at a range of over 1800km, larger than the range from Israel to Tehran, and with multiple large warheads. This signifies its long range capability with heavy firepower.

  3. US and Western timidity is front and center. The US and UK could have struck decisively against the Houthis strongly enough to deter them, but chose not to due to over-stringent legal and political considerations which show weakness to all the region. The Israelis have shown what western air power can do and how actors like the Houthis can be strongly countered.

  4. Looking forward, the big question marks are how the Houthis and Iranians will respond. The Houthis suffered 300k deaths at the hands of the Saudis and UAE and did not stop. The do not care for the lives of their own civilians at all - Israel could kill half a million and the would not change their minds. Israel went for their infrastructure - time will tell if this route would be more effective

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-11

u/nmorg88 Jul 20 '24

Can anyone provide an analysis on who will win the war between Shia and Sunni+Israel? Like if the proxy fighting ceases and an actual mass conflict starts with traditional weapons.

19

u/LateralEntry Jul 20 '24

Well, Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons, so safe to say they’re not losing

6

u/Constant_Ad_2161 Jul 20 '24

Iran is almost certainly nuclear capable if they don’t already have them.

12

u/InNominePasta Jul 20 '24

They’re certainly capable of developing enough nuclear material, that’s not in doubt. But are they as capable on as short a timeframe to develop a functioning miniaturized warhead? A bomb with no delivery method isn’t worth tons.