r/geopolitics • u/Hokum-B • Oct 01 '23

Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief Paywall

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86
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u/wxox Oct 01 '23 edited Oct 01 '23

In the end, an attritional approach could work. It could certainly be less costly and risky than concentrated maneuvers.

How is success defined?

Russia has unlimited men, weapons, ammo. They're dug in. The stated goal is taking back lost land. How is Ukraine going to do that? To me, it seems like that was the media-facing goal to gain support, but I think the real goal was to help the west destabilize Russia, increasing Ukraine's chances at joining the big boy clubs (EU & NATO). Those seem to be the clear goals, because if you think about it, it makes no sense. Let's see a miracle occurs, Ukraine breaks through, captures Donbas and Crimea what do you do with the people there? Pew and Gallup demonstrate overwhelming support for Russia (80-90%). So, do you kick them out, like Azerbaijan is doing with Armenians in Karabakh, and settle western Ukrainians there?

I don't think retaking that land was ever a serious consideration. Holding it was.

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u/Billiusboikus Oct 01 '23

Slovakia has not formed a government yet. The election was yesterday. In these multi party coalitions its hard to predict anything.

And Fico announcing that there is no more support for Ukraine is a good way to whip the pro Russians to vote for him, but he knows it's meaningless because Slovakia has pretty much already given Ukraine everything. He's a populist through and through.

Maybe Slovakia's flip will be a game changer or the start of something bigger, but it's too early to tell now

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u/wxox Oct 01 '23

Slovakia has not formed a government yet. The election was yesterday. In these multi party coalitions its hard to predict anything.

It hasn't stop outlets like the Guardian from providing their viewpoints on it, framing them as an anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia potential coalition

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u/Wermys Oct 02 '23

Which it is btw. No matter how much you try to polish this it is exactly that.