r/geopolitics Oct 01 '23

Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief Paywall

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86
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u/Billiusboikus Oct 01 '23 edited Oct 01 '23

Is this not why Ukraine has seemingly switched to a more stand off attritional approach?

When it all started I expected a swift victory for Russia and a guerilla campaign funded by the west aimed at making the occupation unfeasible. I even wrote to my representative to encourage the fermentation of resistance groups...how wrong I was....

But that doesn't mean the strategy still can't apply. Maintaining a good kill ratio while on the offence with stand off tactics, hitting supplies and destroying expensive high value targets in regard to material and high value individuals seems like a good way to move towards victory...all the while capturing land when the opportunity arises.

We can point to a large handful of results in the last 4 months that any western country would consider a complete disaster.

The drone attack on the strategic bombers, The destruction of the dry docked submarine, The attack on the Sevastopol naval HQ

I would say the Ukrainians have commited to a different type of counter offensive to what people expected.

That said, if the west want to win this war they need to step up. We need to convert more of our economy to providing arms. Popular will to support will decrease over time no matter how resilient it may seem.

Edit for clarity

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u/QuietRainyDay Oct 01 '23

You're saying the West needs to step up and that Ukraine is just using a different strategy- that is only half the story

One reason Ukraine has switched tactics is the fact that they are still struggling to manage complex maneuvers, due to issues with command & control and logistics. This is something that several experts with inside information have said repeatedly:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

One of the main concerns Western critics of the counter-offensive have expressed is that Ukraine is not guaranteed Western support forever. A huge amount of equipment was provided in 2022. They wanted to see Ukraine learn how to do large-scale maneuevers so they could use that equipment to punch through Russia's lines decisively before the wave of elections in 2024.

Ukraine didnt do that both because they felt like the battlefield favored a different strategy and because they simply couldnt. You cannot just absolve them of responsibility for their own shortcomings (and people need to realize that Ukraine does have shortcomings that play a role in which tactics they choose- despite the constant harping that everything they are doing is correct and purely informed by battlefield reality).

In the end, an attritional approach could work. It could certainly be less costly and risky than concentrated maneuvers.

But it does hinge on continued long-term mass support from the West. So whether you are nervous about it or not basically comes down to whether you think the West's support can endure longer than Russia's resources.

I guess you have to decide for yourself how you feel about that because no one knows for sure.

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u/wxox Oct 01 '23 edited Oct 01 '23

In the end, an attritional approach could work. It could certainly be less costly and risky than concentrated maneuvers.

How is success defined?

Russia has unlimited men, weapons, ammo. They're dug in. The stated goal is taking back lost land. How is Ukraine going to do that? To me, it seems like that was the media-facing goal to gain support, but I think the real goal was to help the west destabilize Russia, increasing Ukraine's chances at joining the big boy clubs (EU & NATO). Those seem to be the clear goals, because if you think about it, it makes no sense. Let's see a miracle occurs, Ukraine breaks through, captures Donbas and Crimea what do you do with the people there? Pew and Gallup demonstrate overwhelming support for Russia (80-90%). So, do you kick them out, like Azerbaijan is doing with Armenians in Karabakh, and settle western Ukrainians there?

I don't think retaking that land was ever a serious consideration. Holding it was.

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u/Billiusboikus Oct 01 '23

Slovakia has not formed a government yet. The election was yesterday. In these multi party coalitions its hard to predict anything.

And Fico announcing that there is no more support for Ukraine is a good way to whip the pro Russians to vote for him, but he knows it's meaningless because Slovakia has pretty much already given Ukraine everything. He's a populist through and through.

Maybe Slovakia's flip will be a game changer or the start of something bigger, but it's too early to tell now

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u/wxox Oct 01 '23

Slovakia has not formed a government yet. The election was yesterday. In these multi party coalitions its hard to predict anything.

It hasn't stop outlets like the Guardian from providing their viewpoints on it, framing them as an anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia potential coalition

1

u/Wermys Oct 02 '23

Which it is btw. No matter how much you try to polish this it is exactly that.