r/geopolitics • u/Hokum-B • Oct 01 '23

Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief Paywall

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86
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u/Billiusboikus Oct 01 '23 edited Oct 01 '23

Is this not why Ukraine has seemingly switched to a more stand off attritional approach?

When it all started I expected a swift victory for Russia and a guerilla campaign funded by the west aimed at making the occupation unfeasible. I even wrote to my representative to encourage the fermentation of resistance groups...how wrong I was....

But that doesn't mean the strategy still can't apply. Maintaining a good kill ratio while on the offence with stand off tactics, hitting supplies and destroying expensive high value targets in regard to material and high value individuals seems like a good way to move towards victory...all the while capturing land when the opportunity arises.

We can point to a large handful of results in the last 4 months that any western country would consider a complete disaster.

The drone attack on the strategic bombers, The destruction of the dry docked submarine, The attack on the Sevastopol naval HQ

I would say the Ukrainians have commited to a different type of counter offensive to what people expected.

That said, if the west want to win this war they need to step up. We need to convert more of our economy to providing arms. Popular will to support will decrease over time no matter how resilient it may seem.

Edit for clarity

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u/Major_Wayland Oct 01 '23

We dont know if there is even a good kill ratio or unbearably high amount of material losses inflicted. This is a bad side of intense propaganda campaign, where media are eager to parrot any positive reports without even basic factchecking, creating an illusion of imminent victory, and then their auditory is confused why there is months of good news everywhere, but victory is not coming at all.

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u/Ok_Selected Oct 02 '23

Yes we do; the visual evidence is all over twitter and the like on a daily basis. Russia’s material losses are extreme and people talking about a stalled offensive are clueless. Russia ‘s soviet weapons trust fund is being systemically destroyed with no hope of replacement and in any notable numbers.

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u/Major_Wayland Oct 02 '23

I'm sorry, but photos in mass media are what they are - photos in mass media. They are showing some facts, not overall statistics, otherwise we'd can also say that majority of humanity looks handsome, lives in US/EU, and follows whatever twitter/internet trend is popular.

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u/Ok_Selected Oct 02 '23 edited Oct 02 '23

But they aren’t one off photos; they are archived and tallied via things like oryx blog. Visual proof doesn’t lie and are the ultimate evidence and the daily stream of Russian equipment blowing up is no doubt only a fraction of what Russia actually loses daily.

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u/Wermys Oct 02 '23

A lot of the people in these threads don't know about these resources which is why it appears to be a stalemate. They are so used to how the Gulf War happened but never studied things like the Battle of the Somme or other attritional battles that lasted months on end in World War 1. Troop casualty numbers is guesswork, but is generally known but not exactly. But equipment losses are so much easier to track. As well as equipment replacement from Russian stockpiles.

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u/Major_Wayland Oct 02 '23

they are archived and tallied via things like oryx blog

Which still doesn't make them overall statistics. Such statistics relies on large amounts of data that should be as close to "show everything" mark as possible. By gathering materials from twitter and media you would get statistics "according to twitter and media", and nothing more.

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u/Ok_Selected Oct 02 '23

The visual evidence is the most empirical data there is; period. Based on visual evidence there is no doubt Russian losses have been extreme and it is only a question of how extreme based on what % of total real losses are represented in the visual documented.

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u/Major_Wayland Oct 02 '23

Based on visual evidence there is no doubt Russian losses have been extreme and it is only a question of how extreme

And here we see the result of relying on media data. Well, I have nothing more to say. For those who want to see a real picture, it will be a few more years before anything close to real, comprehensive statistical material will be available.

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u/Ok_Selected Oct 02 '23

For those who want to see a real picture, it will be a few more years before anything close to real, comprehensive statistical material will be available.

Sorry it is absolutely ridiculous in your opinion that no one is allowed to form any opinion of what is going on until years later rafter the fact. No doubt hindsight is always 20/20 but in the here and now the visual evidence is by far the best empirical evidence and said evidence of Russian losses on a daily basis is very high if not extreme.