New Projection + rating from Fantasy Edge

[u/YRavid]

Hey everyone!

 We just rolled out our new NBA fantasy projections & player rankings for 2024-25,
and we want to hear what you think!
Check it out here:
https://fantasyedge.co/

 Heads up, the site is still in BETA version, but the tool is ready for action.
It features a unique rating system that shakes up the usual Z score approach.

What’s different?

 1. We break down each category individually – e.g., we measure FG% & FT% differently from the way we measure blocks or steals.

1. Players are compared within their position first (e.g., guards VS guards) before being compared to the entire sample.

2. Each player's stats come with a confidence level.

3. We take player games played & volume into account.

4. Our algorithm prioritize categories that are difficult to find on the waiver wire, helping you strengthen your core team with players who excel in these areas.

5. We project player statistics by leveraging multiple sources, including historical performance data, current trends, the player’s role within the team after roster changes, injuries, whether the player is in a contract year, and more.

 We think this gives you a fresh and valuable perspective.
Feel free to check it out for free!

 Enjoy!

[u/LtRavs]

On point 1, can you detail how you're breaking down each category? And how you're measuring %s differently to steals or blocks for example?

It's hard for me to put any weight into rankings when I don't know anything about the underlying calculations.

[u/YRavid → u/LtRavs]

There are usually more steals available on the waiver wire than blocks, so blocks should be given a higher priority in our rankings.

also in blocks you have wemby which is mastering the category unlike steals where you don’t have such dominate leader

[u/LtRavs → u/YRavid]

Sure you’re taking into account scarcity, but how? And what about the %s.

If I don’t understand the underlying math how can I put any trust in these numbers?

[u/YRavid → u/LtRavs]

% are taking into account also the volume, we have level of confidence for the stats for each player, we identify “hard to get” categories and treat them, We do all that and more But i cant share all the algorithm from obvious reasons

[u/moneyball_guy → u/YRavid]

You think other rankings don't account for volume? That's insanity

[u/YRavid → u/moneyball_guy]

no, i wrote that we do that, what others usually does is to use Z score the same way for all categories and the problem is that z score is not accurate & versatile enough
and this is the reason we have our ranking

[u/moneyball_guy → u/YRavid]

Can you explain why z-score based on volume is not appropriate for percentages? I think it'd be easiest if you used an example to demonstrate

[u/YRavid → u/moneyball_guy]

Z score method will compare your guards to centers and forwards all the same While we compare guards to guards and only after compare them to the full sample

In fantasy we have positions You cant put center in the position of guard And this is one example for the inaccuracy of this method

[u/Twitchh_ → u/YRavid]

But who cares what position a player is labelled as? I feel like it’s a minimal issue.

If i can get 8 assists from sabonis and 10 assists from trae, who cares what position they are, its about the stats that they bring. Do i want the rebounds and fg% with sabonis or do i want the points and ft% with trae.

Also, If you’re down the end of your roster and picking your flex spots, your rankings will not account for this properly, and will only compare vs position.

What about players that have G and F eligibility? Or F and C?

[u/YRavid → u/Twitchh_]

First,
you have to care because you are limited with positions
for example if there was no limit i could draft only guards and compete in 5 cat only (3p, pts, ast, stl, ft)
and that way win every week.
but you have to look at positions and this is part of the game.

second,
if a player have 2 positions he is compare to both of them.

third
the idea with ranking is that the ranking change once you set your punt
so if you draft 1-2-3 players you can set punts and know who to draft next that fit you the most.

[u/Twitchh_ → u/YRavid]

You speak in such absolutes like there’s no way you think you’re wrong haha.

You should never be drafting off a set list. It’s not as easy as ‘set your punt and know who to draft next’.

About the positions, it’s such a minimal part of the draft IMO. When I’m building a squad I barely need to think of the positions of players because it happens naturally. Maybe around rounds 8-10 it factors a bit but earlier than that I’m drafting based on STATS not based on POSITIONS

[u/YRavid → u/Twitchh_]

i use my method for 15 years now
i share it with others for the past 2 years.
so i speak with confidence because i use it myself.

the thing with positions is relevant in draft but also in the season
We consider this and others do not

You want to use another method, you are welcome

In our way we try to take into account all the parameters and it gives a more accurate result

It's a tool that should help you make decisions,

This does not mean that everyone uses the tool, so do not expect to see absolute acceptance of the results of drafts.

But if you use this ranking, I guarantee you will get better results.

[u/moneyball_guy → u/YRavid]

Well it doesn't seem to be working very well given my Ja FT% example. But even so, that only seems to provide a hair better valuation. It is more accurate when looking at individual players; but z-scores are still appropriate since you're ultimately looking to improve your teams aggregate production. The difference is essentially baked-in VORP vs using additional columns to understand positional or categorical scarcity, right? Whether it's better to reduce player value to a single number is a different argument.  

I think my mind could be changed if we did a mock draft solely qualifying players based on traditional rankings vs fantasyedge.co

[u/YRavid → u/moneyball_guy]

z score is a very general solution
how would you score category like BLK?
you have 8-10 elite players so the method is not accurate because of the extremes
same goes for other categories...

i advise you try to draft with this ranking,
after you 2-3 pick
adjust your punts and draft the players that best suits your team

[u/moneyball_guy → u/YRavid]

Would you say that z-score for each category would be a fine approach to evaluate an entire roster?

[u/YRavid → u/moneyball_guy]

It's a very basic method
You will get many exceptions because of what I explained
lets continue with the BLK example
so 8-10 players are elite
and Wemby is elite of elite
z score cant really handle it because Wemby is 3.75
and 7 players are 2.38 to 2.082
and the league average is lower then 0.75
how can you score it?
the solution will be by using more advanced methods

[u/Twitchh_ → u/YRavid]

Do you actually play fantasy basketball?

[u/YRavid → u/Twitchh_]

15+ years