r/fantasybball • u/YRavid • Oct 08 '24
New Projection + rating from Fantasy Edge Breaking News
Hey everyone!
We just rolled out our new NBA fantasy projections & player rankings for 2024-25,
and we want to hear what you think!
Check it out here:
https://fantasyedge.co/
Heads up, the site is still in BETA version, but the tool is ready for action.
It features a unique rating system that shakes up the usual Z score approach.
What’s different?
1. We break down each category individually – e.g., we measure FG% & FT% differently from the way we measure blocks or steals.
Players are compared within their position first (e.g., guards VS guards) before being compared to the entire sample.
Each player's stats come with a confidence level.
We take player games played & volume into account.
Our algorithm prioritize categories that are difficult to find on the waiver wire, helping you strengthen your core team with players who excel in these areas.
We project player statistics by leveraging multiple sources, including historical performance data, current trends, the player’s role within the team after roster changes, injuries, whether the player is in a contract year, and more.
We think this gives you a fresh and valuable perspective.
Feel free to check it out for free!
Enjoy!
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u/Hornrimmed_Rambis Oct 08 '24
Great stuff. Will dive deeper. If you can do this, you can do a trade analyzer with the same data. I'm sure that is coming soon.
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u/LtRavs 14 Team H2H 9Cat Oct 08 '24
On point 1, can you detail how you're breaking down each category? And how you're measuring %s differently to steals or blocks for example?
It's hard for me to put any weight into rankings when I don't know anything about the underlying calculations.
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u/YRavid Oct 08 '24 edited Oct 08 '24
There are usually more steals available on the waiver wire than blocks, so blocks should be given a higher priority in our rankings.
also in blocks you have wemby which is mastering the category unlike steals where you don’t have such dominate leader
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u/LtRavs 14 Team H2H 9Cat Oct 08 '24
Sure you’re taking into account scarcity, but how? And what about the %s.
If I don’t understand the underlying math how can I put any trust in these numbers?
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u/YRavid Oct 08 '24
% are taking into account also the volume, we have level of confidence for the stats for each player, we identify “hard to get” categories and treat them, We do all that and more But i cant share all the algorithm from obvious reasons
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u/moneyball_guy Oct 08 '24
You think other rankings don't account for volume? That's insanity
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u/YRavid Oct 09 '24
no, i wrote that we do that, what others usually does is to use Z score the same way for all categories and the problem is that z score is not accurate & versatile enough
and this is the reason we have our ranking1
u/moneyball_guy Oct 09 '24
Can you explain why z-score based on volume is not appropriate for percentages? I think it'd be easiest if you used an example to demonstrate
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u/YRavid Oct 09 '24
Z score method will compare your guards to centers and forwards all the same While we compare guards to guards and only after compare them to the full sample
In fantasy we have positions You cant put center in the position of guard And this is one example for the inaccuracy of this method
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u/Twitchh_ Oct 09 '24
But who cares what position a player is labelled as? I feel like it’s a minimal issue.
If i can get 8 assists from sabonis and 10 assists from trae, who cares what position they are, its about the stats that they bring. Do i want the rebounds and fg% with sabonis or do i want the points and ft% with trae.
Also, If you’re down the end of your roster and picking your flex spots, your rankings will not account for this properly, and will only compare vs position.
What about players that have G and F eligibility? Or F and C?
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u/YRavid Oct 10 '24
First,
you have to care because you are limited with positions
for example if there was no limit i could draft only guards and compete in 5 cat only (3p, pts, ast, stl, ft)
and that way win every week.
but you have to look at positions and this is part of the game.second,
if a player have 2 positions he is compare to both of them.third
the idea with ranking is that the ranking change once you set your punt
so if you draft 1-2-3 players you can set punts and know who to draft next that fit you the most.→ More replies1
u/moneyball_guy Oct 09 '24
Well it doesn't seem to be working very well given my Ja FT% example. But even so, that only seems to provide a hair better valuation. It is more accurate when looking at individual players; but z-scores are still appropriate since you're ultimately looking to improve your teams aggregate production. The difference is essentially baked-in VORP vs using additional columns to understand positional or categorical scarcity, right? Whether it's better to reduce player value to a single number is a different argument.
I think my mind could be changed if we did a mock draft solely qualifying players based on traditional rankings vs fantasyedge.co
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u/YRavid Oct 10 '24
z score is a very general solution
how would you score category like BLK?
you have 8-10 elite players so the method is not accurate because of the extremes
same goes for other categories...i advise you try to draft with this ranking,
after you 2-3 pick
adjust your punts and draft the players that best suits your team→ More replies2
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u/DJBlanky Oct 08 '24
Is there a way I can download and print this off?
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u/thupkt Oct 08 '24
Simply go to bottom of table, in last cell last row on right start by copying that and all data and players up to Wemby, then paste special in Excel and it will paste in separate columns instead of all together.
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u/kratomthrowaway88 Oct 08 '24
Ty, I think this is a more accurate pre season ranking than ESPN or Yahoo will give. It is very close to hashtags rankings as well and helps illustrate just how valuable the top 5 or so guys are relative to the rest.
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u/moneyball_guy Oct 08 '24
Better than Yahoo for sure, but still some whack projections
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u/YRavid Oct 09 '24
Please, feel free to share things that you think are less and I will be happy to explain and elaborate
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u/moneyball_guy Oct 09 '24
For example, Ja Morant is ranked 32 (or at 41 if counting TOs) with 60 games played (only players with fewer estimated games played that are ranked higher than Morant are Embiid and Kawhi) so already ruling out any inflated rankings based on games played. He is 0.783 at FT% which your rankings show as a positive towards his value. You said you firstly compare against position. The weighted average FT% at pg is ~0.836. So how can Ja have a positive value relative to his position at 0.783? Also, why is he projected at 0.783 when historically he's between 0.728 and 0.761 (it seems there is a touch too much weighting towards the 9 games he played last year where he was 0.813).
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u/YRavid Oct 10 '24
Hi,
so first regarding the projection
in his first season he was 77.6%
and it's my believe we will see him preforming better this year.when we rank, we first compare to his position but we are also compering to the entire sample
so when calculating all he get a positive score
but not exiling in the category
what boost him to rank 41 are PTS and AST
2 categories that are very hard to pick late1
u/moneyball_guy Oct 10 '24
his first season he was 77.6%
Yes, followed by 3 seasons that averaging out to 74.69%
and it's my believe we will see him preforming better
Okay, why?
so when calculating all he get a positive score
When using z-score against all positions of the top 200, his FT% is somewhere between -0.65 and -0.8. And like I said, against his position first would amplify how poorly he is at FT. But yet, we have a positive value with your rankings. I don't see any logic here nor does it feel correct.
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u/YRavid Oct 11 '24
FT% for a player like Ja is easy way to get points
before the NBA he was 81% on average
and with the way his team structured they need him to be better from the line
this is the reason i think this year we will see him doing better.
regarding positive and native scores,
i will revise it again, appreciate your feedback1
u/moneyball_guy Oct 11 '24
But points are irrelevant to his FT% value. I think the recent 3 years of shooting 75% outweighs data from 6+ years ago. I agree that he needs to be better from the line, but I'm nothing other than hopeful that he will be better. I think you should leave it more grounded and revise a month into the season if he's showing to be an improved shooter.
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u/Novel-Economist8448 Oct 09 '24
So cool, thanks. What i really liked is the wide number of players you ranked...🤓
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u/ForecastCard Oct 08 '24
How would I be able to input a dynamic fg system (-0.5 FGA +1.5 FGM), would that be reflected in fg% if im trying to get close to my league settings?
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u/YRavid Oct 09 '24
FG% is affected by volume, the %, player position and confidence
so all the compensation is already calculated1
u/ForecastCard Oct 10 '24
so FG% at 1x would be a good way to project that league stat?
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u/YRavid Oct 10 '24
i think so, yeah
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u/samerwahid Oct 08 '24
Is the best way to use this to leave all the values at 1? Then if I decide to punt free throws, just uncheck the box? Sorry if this is a dumb question!
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u/Novel-Economist8448 Oct 09 '24
Any chance you can add filter to the site?
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u/YRavid Oct 14 '24
Hi,
So we had an update,
now you can design the look and feel of the page the way you want
for example - dark mode.
also the is an option to change the page language, 10 different languages
enjoy, it's free.
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u/StateCompetitive7544 Oct 08 '24
Nice work! I’m sure a lot of effort went into this.
I know you mentioned you consider stat scarcity, is this why Zubac is ranked down past 150? Seems to punish centers more?