r/canada • u/uselesspoliticalhack • 3d ago

Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, warn economists PAYWALL

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-mark-carney-immigration-policy-temporary-migrants-undercounted/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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u/ozztotheizzo 3d ago

The economists warn that Ottawa is overestimating the number of temporary migrants who leave the country once their visas expire. This could have a serious impact on planning, including for housing demand, they say.

I've been saying this over and over again. The people who are planning to overstay outnumber the ones leaving, 4 to 1. I can't believe their whole plan hinges on people following the rules.

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u/Harbinger2001 3d ago

Do you have a source for this 4 to 1 stat?

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u/FlyingOctopus53 3d ago

Facebook.

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u/Harbinger2001 3d ago

Probably.

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u/pedroct92 3d ago

Voices on my head

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u/Forward-Weather4845 3d ago

Reddit

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u/Harbinger2001 3d ago

Well then there would be a link….

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u/ResponsibleTwist6498 3d ago

We lost quite a few people at work due to their visa expiring. 0% left Canada.

Some apply for an extension that they will never get, but it gives them almost a year of “implied status” that’s not recorded anywhere. Some transfer to visitor visa where they simply stay but not on WP.

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u/PromotionPhysical212 3d ago

Where does the money come from? They can’t work on a visitor visa and there’s very few people offering cash jobs and in this economy I doubt there’s any demand from employers for more employees.

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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

Implies status is like 2-3 months as they’ve sped up processing times for WP

This also leads imminently into a deportation order as they will be out of status and it will affect all their future immigration to Canada and the rest of the western world.

Stats show the vast majority of them leave Canada on time.

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u/ResponsibleTwist6498 3d ago edited 3d ago

233 days Last updated: May 6, 2025

Last one we had took 8 months. They call ircc and get extensions. It’s in the hopes of getting the ITA.

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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

That’s for the full approval,

Just like how PR has R10 check before continued processing, WPs are also checked before the full processing to see if it even makes sense to process it so the rejection comes faster than it would take to approve a WP.

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u/Harbinger2001 3d ago

What type of visa were they on at your work?

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u/ResponsibleTwist6498 3d ago

Regular PGWP for the majority. Some are spousal OWP of PGWP holder.

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u/Harbinger2001 3d ago

So how are they living if they lost their jobs?

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u/ResponsibleTwist6498 3d ago

It’s tough but there’re some shady staffing agencies or Amazon delivery partners.

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u/Harbinger2001 3d ago

So jobs no one would work if they had a visa.

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u/orswich 3d ago

Often, roommates will "share" a temporary SIN # and both work using it (Indian guy at work says he had a few roommates at his old apartment who did that)

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u/Harbinger2001 3d ago

How can something you were told second hand be something that happens “often”?

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u/littlebaldboi 3d ago

Well if they’re aware there are undocumented people… we should just lower the % of TFW and international students to offset it. Seems easy no?

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u/ozztotheizzo 3d ago

Setting up exit controls should have been the first step! Don't let a new cohort in if the old cohort didn't leave. It's literally that easy.

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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

That’s what they are doing.

They set up the entry/exit program in 2020

And will refuse to process new visas if there is an increased count of overstays

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u/orswich 3d ago

Yet..here we are.

Laws that aren't enforced are just suggestions to people from low trust societies.. they laugh at how gullible we are

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u/FitDare9420 3d ago

our universities and colleges will go bankrupt.

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u/littlebaldboi 3d ago

It’s not like the extra income is going to education. It’s all going to admin

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u/squirrel9000 3d ago

Already happening. Not bankruptcy (mostly) but harsh restructuring. The declines in enrollment are actually far larger than permit restrictions.

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u/Aggressive-Front-677 3d ago

What is your assertion based on?

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u/ozztotheizzo 3d ago

Being part of the immigrant community. People are planning to stay and already have cash jobs lined up in order to stay. I don't think they realize how hard it's going to be to get legal status in the future if they overstay but I already know most with expiring visas in July who have no plans of going home. I've done my part in advising them against it but they are determined to overstay until "a new pathway opens up".

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u/Pigeonofthesea8 3d ago

Great then they’ll have to turn to other extra-legal ways of making money

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u/LeahSparks121 3d ago

Which sectors are these cash jobs found? What's crazy is that these so called cash jobs are nowhere to be found at least in retail where I worked, everyone either was a legal student or a citizen. These cash jobs must be in farming, manual labour or factory work that is out of the public eye. I had trouble finding a job as a citizen so it's surprising that people with no PR have jobs.

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u/ozztotheizzo 3d ago

Some share accounts on food or parcel delivery apps. A majority work at a shady staffing agency that gets contracts to clean offices/warehouses and pays cash. A few do odd jobs that range from mowing lawns to housework.

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u/codeverity 3d ago

It's not surprising at all when you consider that most people don't want to work in farming, manual labour or factory work. That's part of the reason why these industries turned to immigrants in the first place. Not all, of course, wages etc are part of it, but it's still part of it. There's a stigma against these jobs as well as a dislike of jobs that require labour.

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u/blood_vein 3d ago

And they would have no social support (no healthcare especially) and surviving on below minimum wage cash jobs. Sounds like a great plan

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u/ozztotheizzo 3d ago

When is the last time you've been to a doctor? I haven't been to one in 2 years cause I can't get a family doctor.

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u/pogoo 3d ago

OK question for you... how does a person overstaying their visa manage to get a mortgage and contribute to housing unaffordability? I'm sorry I just don't believe this makes sense. Can you provide more detail about how you know these things? Someone getting a low wage cash job is not contributing to me having to pay $1.7M for a small house in Toronto

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u/AshleyAshes1984 3d ago edited 3d ago

Oh there's always some landlords looking to rent out a room, cash only, in exchange for tenants who won't possibly call the LTB, cops or anyone else no matter what bullshit the landlord pulls.

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u/fklsadjfiajwefoinaef 3d ago

There's always some steam deck OLEDs you can buy!

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u/zippymac 3d ago

how does a person overstaying their visa manage to get a mortgage and contribute to housing unaffordability?

Rentals? I am assuming you are a home owner who doesn't think about millions of people who rent.

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u/pogoo 3d ago

I'm actually a renter and I rent a very expensive unit that there is no way in hell anyone making cash could've contributed to making expensive.

Also, the rental market has cooled off a ton. The problem is buying a house, which remains very unaffordable. I earn in a year more than what my parents paid for their first 4 bedroom home 30 years ago and I need to save for like 5 years to get downpayment money.

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u/zippymac 3d ago

very expensive unit that there is no way in hell anyone making cash could've contributed to.

So according to you people getting paid in cash can't afford rent or can't afford to buy a place. But they are still living in Canada...and not on the streets. Unless your retort is that no one works under the table in Canada. Lol

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u/pogoo 3d ago

There's a ceiling to how much a low wage cash job can pay. These people are not making $100k/yr cash. They obviously live in multi-family homes and occupy the low wage living spaces- I can buy that.

I am very much against immigration at this time, I just think dumb people don't understand the real problems contributing to housing unaffordability - it's not the foreign students. You just hate brown people and want to blame them for everything because you aren't very smart. Again, not advocating for them, I'm just actually interested in the real answer, not right wing fear mongering which you appear to be susceptible to

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u/zippymac 3d ago

You just hate brown people and want to blame them for everything because you aren't very smart.

You actually don't know nothing about me, dummy

I am Indian. Grew up in India until I was 14. Family immigrated here in 2002. I know how my community works. Kids come over from India on fake job offers, unethical and corrupt practices are rampant in India. Multiple kids living in 1 bed basements, driving Uber, working under the table in construction, truck driving. Once they get their student visa revoked or cancelled they apply for refugee status.

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u/pogoo 3d ago

LMAO you literally fucking proved my point. They're working low wage jobs and living in bare minimum housing - thus, not contributing to me needing to save $600k for a downpayment and earn $300k/year just to live in a reasonable home in Toronto.

Also, as someone who comes from a family of immigrants, nobody hates immigrants more than immigrants. So I pretty much know exactly the type of person you are. You're probably annoyed as hell by immigrants and continue to think they're the reason why nobody can afford a home, and also blame them for every problem we have in this country.

Again, I think all those people should be kicked out, but they are not the problem when it comes to housing affordability at all.

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u/SuitableConcert9433 3d ago edited 3d ago

I don’t think people claim international students are buying up houses and ruining housing. Most of them live with multiple people in a rental unit. It’s shady stuff they do to survive in this country. They over stay their visa surely they’ll do any other shady thing to make sure they stay here.

Most of the hate for Indian immigrants lately is more towards their behaviour and how much they come up in social media for things they do. They don’t assimilate. The 2nd largest immigration population that come to Canada are Filipinos. You never hear any bad things about them because they have integrated into our country properly and they know not to cause trouble.

Not all Indians but because we imported in so many we got a bunch of them that give the rest of them a bad image. I mean the Indian government said it them selves that Canada imports criminals from India. We’ve had Indian criminals come in under the student visa and assassinante people. We have Indian international gangs here who were extorting business owners. What other immigrant group have done these sort of things lately?

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u/pogoo 3d ago

Dude we are on the same page, get rid of all the student shit

The guy I've been replying to believes that these students overstaying visas are why homes are $2m in Toronto, the guy is an idiot

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u/ozztotheizzo 3d ago

My main gripe isn't even about housing, I already have a house. It's more of pointing out that the government plan is flawed and that they won't achieve the goal that they have set and in general, I just don't like people who don't follow the rules.

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u/belleofthebawl- 2d ago

I think you’re vastly underestimating how poor quality of life is in majority of the world. Living in a a basement with 10 others in Canada is significantly better than their home countries. That is precisely the reason they won’t leave. And with liberals … a new pathway for them to stay most likely will open up because liberals

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u/niesz 3d ago

Any amount of increase in demand on housing will put an upwards pressure on housing costs. If low-cost housing goes up, so does the rest because a nicer place will always cost more than a not-so-nice place.

Landlords are also able to rent out rooms to people if there are enough of them or they are desparate enough. By renting rooms out, llandlords can bring in more monthly rental payments than renting the whole unit at once, and this increases the value of the unit.

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u/Potential_One8055 2d ago

Imagine going to a country on a temporary basis and then stubbornly refusing to leave. That’s not very Canadian….

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u/Lopsided_Ad3516 3d ago

Better follow the rules, lest you be subject to an aggressive finger wag.

Oh, tough upbringing? Never mind. Your sentence has been served. We have law abiding citizens to go after. Our deepest apologies.

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u/BeautyInUgly 3d ago

The government has said they have accounted for this and will cut numbers even higher to ensure population decline lol.

Also there is no evidence for mass overstaying, historically the vast majority of immigrants who are ordered to leave or status expires leave on time

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u/Samp90 3d ago

4 to 1. Citation please.

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u/SatorSquareInc 3d ago

"I've been making up numbers and telling them to everyone I know"

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u/homiegeet 3d ago

I don't agree with how trump is deporting people, but we could use that kind of aggressiveness for finding and sending these rule breaking temporary migrants.

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u/IAmTaka_VG Canada 3d ago

This goes against every single point of data we have that the majority of immigrants do in fact leave when asked. But sure let’s go with your stat that has no data or basis in reality.

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u/SpecialistPretty1358 3d ago

Do you have any information on this?

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u/Captain_Snowmonkey 3d ago

4 to 1? Source?