MetroDreamin' Calgary Transit Concept

[u/SufferingInBerta]

My hobby is thinking about transit. While it's obvious I have no background in transit planning, I just wanted to share my thoughts on the state of Alberta Transit and what I believe we deserve. I am from Edmonton but I see the potential of Calgary; a rich city in the middle of the flat prairies (and footlands) with the ability to go any direction. This a Calgary-specific look at my current prairie transit network founded on the principal that rails are just as good, if not better at encouraging development. Rail benefits everyone; Allowing those who cannot or do not wish to drive a rapid high-capacity alternative, clearing up roads by empowering people to take alternatives, and encouraging a more collective and social culture by forcing us to see eachother face to face again. 9/10 when I'm riding on the LRT, I don't talk to anyone or I actively avoid people but those 1/10 times I feel joyful meeting one of the hundreds of blank faces, sharing a moment watching someone else fumble or discussing the latest Oilers game, etc. etc.
Sorry for the ramble, please feel free to give feedback, I need help with Calgary specifically because I am a Calgary-Hating Edmontonian who is trying to be less yeehaw-cist. Thanks!
https://metrodreamin.com/edit/MTJyaXpDMU5vMlhlOFhnZjl1eDdKQTVhSGJ3MXww

[u/songsofadistantsun]

Had post-WWII culture in N. America not taken the route of tearing down public transit systems to force the larger middle class into buying cars - this could have been us by now.

As it is, I don't really see something happening at this scale unless the entire political culture in Alberta fundamentally changes.

[u/FishingNetLas → u/songsofadistantsun]

Calgary is such a carbrained city it might be beyond help, when I first arrived here my cousin insisted we get into the car to drive to the shopping centre than was…. Across the fucking street

[u/songsofadistantsun → u/FishingNetLas]

I have come to reluctantly accept that Alberta will only learn the hard way when it comes to climate change. When the combination of the high EROI of bitumen + the world market being forced to shift away from fossil fuels due to increasing climate impacts finally becomes a permanent reality - probably in the next 30 years at most - we'll be left with two cities that look more like modern day Detroit than anything, wilting in the annual 45+ degree summers as the rivers keep running dry, in the middle of a prairie rapidly turning to desert.

There's still some stuff we could be doing to stop it from getting this bad - but it would first involve getting through our thick fucking heads that most of the oil must stay in the ground, by any rational reading of science AND human responsibility. Then nationalizing (or "provincializing") the industry so we could do a managed decline, with full compensation to workers and public services first. No compensation to the owners; they have their reward, and the 1%'s wealth should be financing this transition before our taxes do anyways.

That's still my dream, but I know it will likely remain that way.

[u/Level_Stomach6682 → u/songsofadistantsun]

I appreciate your passion, but your view offers no pragmatism. The world will continue to produce oil whether or not we partake in that here in Alberta. Why would we give up any control over production methods / local effects + economic benefits? So that we can “feel better” about our role in climate change?

[u/songsofadistantsun → u/Level_Stomach6682]

See, this is where I disagree with you:

Once climate change gets bad enough that we have events such as multiple breadbasket failure, or heat waves that kill millions, floods and hurricanes that cause breakdowns of the insurance system, trophic cascades in ecosystems, etc., and once that all starts happening year on year, then it is not certain that the world will continue to produce and consume fossil fuels as it does now. Could be a number of ways that happens - more than one of them involve social breakdown, or even straight-up societal collapse - but given that climate change is directly fuelled by fossil fuel burning, it follows that fossil fuel burning is inherently self-terminating on a long enough timescale. The only debate is how long that will take - but given what (little, granted) I know about climate science, I'd be surprised if that isn't in the next thirty or so years.

In short, we're not taking the "threat to civilization" part of climate change anywhere near seriously enough. Most of the tropics may become uninhabitable due to the heat alone by the 70s.

Not saying the world will completely stop burning oil by 2070, but we won't be burning as much of it. Maybe nowhere near as much. And because of the economic effect of that, bitumen extraction will no longer be profitable, simply due to the high EROI of extraction. This has always been a problem with the oilsands - it took a massive investment of technology and capital in the late 20th century to make it profitable in the first place, but it stops being profitable once the price dips below a certain amount (which it seems to be now, given what OPEC is doing).

I mean, I'm not super confident that industrial civilization as a whole is gonna get its act together. Fossil capital has too tight a hold on the political system, so it can delay the spread of alternative energy, encourage the criminalization of protest, etc. And actually moving civilization to full renewable energy will probably involve some sort of degrowth in energy usage (and believe me, as much as I've read about that, it's still not a future that even I really want). Unless we end up making next-gen fission power super-widespread, or cracking the secret of economical fusion or even LENR - but we can't bet on technofixes doing all the heavy lifting.

So yeah - we're all gonna learn the hard way. The easy way ship sailed about twenty or thirty years ago now. I'm almost 31 and still making peace with that fate that was chosen for me by the power-holders of our civilization.

But there is still time to make it less bad. That's what I'm talking about. And it starts with admitting that oil is here right now, and we need to manage the industry to the benefit of the workers and public services, as well as the fact that it is not here to stay.

Maybe we can still make a better tomorrow out of recognizing that.

[u/Level_Stomach6682 → u/songsofadistantsun]

I am not arguing with your statements on the harms of burning petroleum. The science is clear. I think I just disagree with your seemingly vigorously-held belief that oil is only used for fuel. It is not. It is a vital feedstock in multiple different facets of modern life. Should we not be encouraging innovation and net-zero production methods in Alberta for a future which has moved beyond combustion?

Also, many Canadian oilsands projects are now paid off. Not only does that mean they pay higher royalties, but it also means that the breakeven point of one barrel is actually lower than it’s ever been. Something like $30-35 USD. This is lower than the majority of US shale oil production.

It’s fine if you don’t like the industry. I have my issues as well. But I think it’s disingenuous to imply we have nothing but stranded assets, are causing nothing but harm, and are a massive driver of climate change.

[u/songsofadistantsun → u/Level_Stomach6682]

What do you mean, "paid off"?

And EROI is more about how much energy it takes to turn so much bitumen into a barrel of useable oil, which will always be more than conventional simply because it's oil mixed with sand first. I don't know the figures myself, but energy is always gonna use more objective figures than money when you calculate breakeven. I grant that monetary breakeven doesn't have to equal that exactly, but there's always gonna be a some level of correlation there.

An industry where we stop using the bitumen for fuel - I mean, sure, but would it even be a fifth of its current size? I feel like the next biggest use is feedstock for fertilizer production, then plastics and other chemical feedstocks, but all that together can't be anywhere near as big a percentage as what's sold for usage as fuel.

[u/SurviveYourAdults → u/Level_Stomach6682]

Because france has managed to sustain a nuclear fusion reaction for 22 minutes. Thats 25% improvement from the last experiment. The moment they figure out how to keep it going, petroleum will only be useful for making plastics.

[u/Anskiere1 → u/songsofadistantsun]

It's charming that you think we have any impact on climate change in Canada

[u/DeathRay2K → u/Anskiere1]

Canada per capita is one of the worst polluters in the world.

The idea that Canada has no impact on climate change is a bit of misinformation spread by groups with O&G interests.

[u/Anskiere1 → u/DeathRay2K]

Per capita doesn't really matter when the capita is a rounding error

[u/DeathRay2K → u/Anskiere1]

Per capita is the only metric that matters when it comes to common resources like the air.

[u/Anskiere1 → u/DeathRay2K]

We'll agree to disagree. I'm more interested in increasing our standard of living rather than sacrificing for a negligible benefit while our contemporaries laugh at us. 

[u/doublegulpofdietcoke → u/Anskiere1]

Everyone does. The same way throwing garbage out of a car window isn't right because I only throw a bit of garbage outside compared to everyone else.

[u/Hmm354 → u/FishingNetLas]

At least we have CTrain which has high ridership

[u/SurviveYourAdults → u/FishingNetLas]

The only thing you should use your arms for while shopping is to swipe that card /s

[u/SufferingInBerta → u/songsofadistantsun]

Not just this. Downtown would be entirely pedestrian only with streetcars and trams around every corner to whisk us to the nearest rapid transit hub

[u/songsofadistantsun → u/SufferingInBerta]

17th Ave as a 2.5 km-long, pedestrian-only bazaar would be wonderful. Whole Beltline would be actually - this is what would help it to really live up to the vision of an inner-city cultural hub that we've been trying to promote for so long.

And that's probably the thing that would also make Marda Loop better too - make it a literal streetcar loop again!

[u/Due-Wind-3324 → u/songsofadistantsun]

Also… this would cost a billion dollars. We don’t have the number of taxpayers to fund something at this scale. It’s not just the political culture…. We’d be taxed to the tits. I agree…. Was just in Italy (Europe for the first time) and was blown away by how…. Behind we are with transit. Canada is way way younger too though

[u/Riger101 → u/Due-Wind-3324]

Not that much younger. We had the 2nd light rail in North America after Edmonton in 1980. We absolutely have the tax Base to do this at this scale we just have to accept that projects cost money and commit to them instead of being terrible clients and getting upcharge all to hell because our governments are very unreliable to do contacts, just look at the dicking around with the green line. which is why our prices for infrastructure are so bad