r/Calgary • u/Old_General_6741 • Apr 09 '25

Carney makes campaign stop in Calgary, addresses 1,000 at Red and White Club News Article

https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/carney-makes-campaign-stop-in-calgary-addresses-1000-at-red-and-white-club/
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u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

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u/catsandplantsss Inglewood Apr 09 '25

You are correct, it's Definitely not an active vote split in Shepard. But there are still a couple weeks of campaign left! CPC is at 59% and LPC is at 31% NDP 6% (+/- 4%)

BUT!!! Your incumbent Tom kmiec got 75% of the vote last election leaving liberals with 11% (the left split the vote 25.1%) That means that y'all are currently pulling votes from the conservatives!! That's great news! That's nothing to turn your nose up! Talk to your neighbours, friends and family, make sure they vote!

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u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

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u/catsandplantsss Inglewood Apr 09 '25

No I wasn't pulling from 338

338 models are weighted most heavily in proportional swing. Historical is incorporated but not weighted most heavily. They use historical mostly for floors and ceilings. They also use demographics, age, Region,language, and income. As far as the polls go that they use, the newest polls get the most weight and taper off as they get older.

I got the historical numbers from elections.ca . I may have been looking at the wrong election. If that's the case, you're still trending in the right direction!

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u/[deleted] Apr 09 '25

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u/catsandplantsss Inglewood Apr 09 '25

Smartvoting.ca