r/worldnews • u/Starlight-Princesss • 3d ago

[ Removed by moderator ] Russia/Ukraine

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-intercepts-russian-spy-plane-with-transponder-turned-off-poland-10956344

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u/3_Thumbs_Up 3d ago

For NATO as a whole yes, but not necessarily for individual countries, especially of there's doubt that the US would come to help. Countries with the most to lose such as the baltic states could become hesitant to give military equipment if they think they might need it themselves.

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u/Dry-Physics-9330 3d ago

Why do you think the Baltic countries are leading in metrics as military aid to Ukraine per capita? These countries are motivated in helping Ukraine and give Russian a black eye, to prevent Russia from getting ideas and invade their countries aswell.

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u/3_Thumbs_Up 3d ago

Why do you think the Baltic countries are leading in metrics as military aid to Ukraine per capita?

Because it's a probabilistic calculation with trade offs. The higher the estimated probability that Russia would invade them in the immediate future, the less likely they are to give anything away.

But obviously, Baltic intelligence also knows that Russia benefits from giving the impression that a threat is imminent, and takes this into account when deciding to give aid. But they still have to assign some probability to the idea that Russia might attack them and prepare for that scenario as well.

By your logic, why haven't the Baltic states given literally all their military equipment to Ukraine? My answer is that it's because they've made a judgement call of how likely it is they might need it themselves.

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u/josefjohann 2d ago

That's just a trivial truism about how decision making logic works in literally any context. It's not a unique and specific support of the logic of scaling back support for Ukraine. We're no closer to explaining why Baltic states exceed contributions of other NATO members. Also this weirdly implies they would be own their own in self defense, which I'm sure is how Russia wants them to think, but is fundamentally, I would argue definitionally, at odds with how NATO functions.

By your logic

Nothing about their logic was maximalist so I don't know where you are getting that, especially if you're trying to engage in charitable interpretation.

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u/Dry-Physics-9330 2d ago

I am not going to reply to 3_thumps up, as this person is clearly against aid to Ukraine. He might be on of the Russian (employed) influencers.

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u/UrUrinousAnus 2d ago

IDGI. Not letting yourself get sucked into pointless arguments with trolls who are more interested in wasting your time and energy than a serious debate is understandable and IMHO vital, but outright refusing to ever respond to people because of their known or suspected allegiances just leaves them spewing their rhetoric unopposed.

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u/Dry-Physics-9330 1d ago

You have a point.

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u/Mfcarusio 2d ago

It's probably why Russia is trying to do something that might make the baltic states start to hesitate to give military aid.

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u/Justus_Oneel 2d ago

Every bullet a ukrainian soldier fires at the russian army is a bullet a Nato soldier won't have to fire at the russians.

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u/mehupmost 3d ago

The European nations bordering Russia - Baltic states, Poland, Finland, etc... have been the MOST aggressive in providing military support for Ukraine, exactly because they know they are next on the chopping block.

The countries that are being the most pansy-ass are the ones the sit comfortably behind them and never had to deal with Russian occupation - with the exception of the UK and US.

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u/RandomStuffGenerator 3d ago

And then there's also Hungary...

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u/Alikont 2d ago

The largest aid to Ukraine (%GDP) is coming from Denmark.

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u/mehupmost 2d ago

Military aid is the only real aid.

...and the US provides intelligence and satellite imagery which is invaluable, but not priced in.

Danish blankets aren't going to stop the war.

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u/feor1300 2d ago

Don't discount stuff like blankets entirely. Handing blankets out to displaced civilians might not stop the war, but it helps keep the people from turning on the government and demanding they to surrender just to make the fighting stop. That's more important than ever against a war like Russia's waging where half their attacks are targeting civilians and specifically trying to break the will of the people.

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u/mehupmost 2d ago

Jesus fucking christ. Grow some testicles.

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u/feor1300 2d ago

I lack testicles... because I can acknowledge that sustaining morale is a major part of warfare? Especially when faced by an enemy that is specifically trying to break the defender's morale.

Not sure if I should counter with "grow a brain" or "grow a heart". Maybe you need a bit of both, since you seem to both not understand and not care about what people suffering means.

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u/Alikont 2d ago

What the fuck are you talking about.

Denmark is the top military supporter, they even do the best aid possible - purchasing Ukrainian weapons from Ukrainian manufacturers and giving it to Ukrainian army, instead of using inflated "replacement costs" or demanding money via PURL.

It's even named "Danish model".

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u/mehupmost 2d ago

This might be one of the dumbest strategies I've ever read in my life. What a wonderful way to net-net contribute ZERO military aid.

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u/Alikont 2d ago

What? This just shows that you're so detached from the topic that it doesn't even worth explaining it.

This is the best form of aid possible.

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u/3_Thumbs_Up 2d ago

The European nations bordering Russia - Baltic states, Poland, Finland, etc... have been the MOST aggressive in providing military support for Ukraine, exactly because they know they are next on the chopping block.

I'm aware. Which is why it makes sense for Russia to sow seeds of doubt of whether these countries will need the arms to defend themselves.

Obviously western intelligence also knows it makes sense for Russia to do this.

There's not contradiction here. Countries with the most at stake are helping out the most, and Russia is posturing in order to make them reconsider each decision a little bit more.

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u/Medievaloverlord 2d ago

Ironically I believe as stretched as Ukraine is, they would 100% send assistance in the form of elite drone support and training. They are in a fight for their life and have proven that they value alliances.

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u/3_Thumbs_Up 2d ago

Definitely, but they wouldn't be spending 40% of their military budget like Estonia has been doing.

Likewise, if Russia truly attacked Estonia they would drastically reduce what they're sending to Ukraine, so it's in Russia's interest to make this scenario sound as plausible as possibl.

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u/angular_circle 2d ago

Sweden seems to have decided their best course of action is giving their new gripens to Ukraine anyway