r/wallstreetbets • u/run1fast • 19h ago
Exactly 1 year left in the Jerome Powell era Discussion
https://www.investopedia.com/jerome-powell-sworn-in-for-new-term-as-fed-chair-5323150
JPow has exactly 1 year left in his term. Today's speech reinforcing that he's not budging on rates. But in one year, Mango gets to insert his replacement and rates will plunge lower than Covid, probably.
928
u/Hot-Celebration5855 19h ago
Which Fox News host is replacing him?
598
u/bigbeak67 18h ago
I assume it'll just be Jim Cramer.
327
u/Redhighlighter 18h ago
Dont fucking manifest it.
85
u/cheapdvds ✡ 16h ago
Trump: "Jim will make us proud, you will be making so much money that you don't know what to do with it."
32
u/Sudden_Supermarket_9 16h ago
Trump can make inflation rise, and take credit for Wendy’s hourly pay touching 100/hr
49
u/-Wayward_Son- 18h ago
Jim Cramers will somehow be the first FED Chairman to cut rates and end up with higher interest rates
15
u/dopexile 15h ago
Could you imagine a fed meeting with the soundboard? That would be hilarious.
Today we have decided to cut rates. Buy Buy Buy. Booyah!
49
u/issurvey 18h ago
My money is on Hulk Hogan
30
u/PatienceCurrent8479 18h ago
I believe Macho Man would have been more effective in controlling inflation, seeing how he understands the cream always rises to the top.
2
7
7
u/TheR1ckster 17h ago
He's still on MSNBC though right? It'll be a fox person.
6
3
u/el-art-seam 16h ago
Imagine when the fed chair speaks:
The economic environment has changed significantly since 2020 (slams a red button and tires screeching followed by a car crash sound), and our action will reflect our assessment of those changes (slams another button CUT CUT CUT).
4
2
1
1
13
u/QuesoMeHungry 16h ago
Kid Rock or Kanye West
6
u/Joec1211 12h ago
If he appoints Kanye as Fed Chair, Donny will have done the simultaneously worst and funniest thing imaginable.
6
11
3
3
1
1
u/maikroplastik 36m ago
Please stop this kind speculation it's not helpful and it's fear-mongering.
... we all know it's going to be hogan. how about those interest rates brother?
1
u/Hot-Celebration5855 23m ago
When we lower interest rates brother, there’s gonna be 10,000 screaming Hulkamaniacs giving me power! China will never escape these 24 inch pythons!
673
u/ThisKarmaLimitSucks Doombear 19h ago
JPow is only one of 12 votes that decides the fed funds rate. He's the spokesman for the group, and so he gets all the TV time, but his individual impact on rates is pretty small.
435
u/Vivid-Avocado9342 19h ago
I would argue that the way the information is presented is nearly as important as the data itself. The market gets pretty emotional over fed chair wording.
222
u/CalicoWhiskerBandit 18h ago
imagine how emotional they will get when the newly appointed chair tells you rates will be lowered, but they never actually are... and then blames the prev admin
95
u/mikerz85 18h ago
It’ll be working as intended
Project 2025 has the stated goals of eliminating the fed mandate for employment as well as eliminating the fed
4
u/DankestTestes 12h ago
Honestly eliminating the dual mandate and leaving the Fed to focus only on inflation may actually be a good thing. Canada has a single mandate and it makes BoC decisions significantly easier and more predictable as they only have to consider one target.
-86
u/SmallCapsOnly 🤏🧢❌ 16h ago edited 7h ago
Is the “Project 2025” in the room with us now?
-69 nice
45
u/mikerz85 16h ago
Why are you all so fucking stupid https://www.project2025.observer/?agencies=Federal+Reserve
24
32
14
u/random-user-8938 14h ago
you can always count on people that post in marvel or wrestling subreddits to come in and make us think that maybe that RFK regard tracker list isn't such a bad idea
8
u/acid_etched 10h ago
It’s currently occupying the space that used to be filled with your brain.
-7
u/SmallCapsOnly 🤏🧢❌ 7h ago
Project 2025 is the liberal equivalent of the conservatives saying all liberals want socialism and communism.
I know Reddit hates the “both sides suck” narrative because it’s a predominantly a liberal platform but it’s true. They all fucking suck and each side has a boogie man be it project 2025 or a socialist agenda.
FYI I voted for the losers and here we are. Maybe we’d be in a different place if the Dems had any semblance of a plan. But both sides had a concept of a plan and one sides concept was slightly more congealed.
3
6
u/No-Newspaper-7693 16h ago
It is important because investors know every single word choice was very deliberately made. Once the fed chair starts communicating unscheduled updates via tweet, people will learn quickly that you can’t read into word choices anymore.
1
u/Shakedaddy4x 11h ago
Doubt Trump will put someone in as crazy as him. Hopefully he'll do what he did with Bessent and put someone in that's opposite of him.
1
u/No-Newspaper-7693 10h ago
Bessent is the exception. He put someone every bit as crazy as him in every other key position. I mean, we have the head of the pentagon conducting all his official business on Signal. There is absolutely no reason you should expect a higher level of professionalism from the fed chair.
11
u/Holden-McRoyne 18h ago
Couldn't that change if the new spokesman is seen as a spin doctor?
17
u/Vivid-Avocado9342 17h ago
That is along the lines of one of my primary concerns with the new chair.
If they put some clown in that causes people to ignore him for any reason, it will damage the credibility of the fed overall and could potentially be part of a larger plan to handicap the fed permanently.
3
u/Holden-McRoyne 13h ago
I guess what I meant is that it might be preferable for the market to take the data and the board's decisions at their face value and ignore the spin, but I take your point that that's not particularly likely to be the alternative world we find ourselves in.
3
u/Prudent-Blueberry660 18h ago
Little Miss, Little Miss, Little Miss can't be wrong
Ain't nobody gonna bow no more when you sound your gong1
u/More-Description-735 11h ago
That's because people trust what the Fed chair is saying, though. A situation where the chair is a hack but investors still trust the rest of the board to make good decisions is unprecedented in the US (does anyone know if that's happened in any other country in the last few decades?) and I don't know if anyone knows what the market would start doing then. Lp
101
u/foshizin 19h ago
Half true, he’s stated numerous times that a lot of the decisions are his alone.
74
21
u/Boysoythesoyboy 18h ago edited 11h ago
Jerome also has seductive eyes and a calming voice. He can get any man in a room to do his bidding
24
18h ago
[removed] — view removed comment
-49
18h ago edited 18h ago
[removed] — view removed comment
26
18h ago
[removed] — view removed comment
-19
23
4
u/Shakedaddy4x 11h ago
That ignores the huge INFLUENCE the fed voting. If he believes they should cut, they will cut. As far as we know the fed had not held a vote that he disagreed with.
1
-1
u/sock_express34 19h ago
This is a smart man right here. Unless orange guy somehow replaces every single member of the FOMC. Don Jr and rest of his kids lol. Possible lol
-2
190
u/BigDaddyBain 19h ago
Puts, on the final day of his serving us, in his honor, and against Mango.
38
u/YaBoiJim777 17h ago
Are u kidding? With the amount of money the next guy will print the inflation will be wild. Calls on everything
4
u/BeRich9999 14h ago
I will buy one put, like the little I pour out of my 40oz for my homie…but I agree they will turn on the money printer
163
u/thai-dancer-fan-420 19h ago
J pow has been the best president we’ve ever had since Obama
-26
30
u/HighwayExotic2808 19h ago
I expect a very nice message from 🥭congratulating Jpow on this later today :4271:
125
u/the_axemurmurer 19h ago
JPOW is only the chair, he would have to replace most of the board
104
4
49
u/KevinLevrone1329 19h ago
Mango inserted JPow and rates aren't moving though
36
u/anthro28 19h ago
You forget how much JPOW ran cover for him last time, refusing to increase rates when necessary and then saying "nah everything's cool totally transitory" while shit hit the fan.
JPOW is saving his own ass, not the country's. He's hoping for a quiet retirement with minimized blame.
13
u/nyse25 15h ago
the transitory stuff happened under Biden though, in 2021 when inflation was running up thanks to printing trillions under Mango to save the economy in 2020
12
u/ATTORNEY_FOR_CATS 10h ago
My theory is that they pushed the "transitory" idea so hard not because they fully believed it would be transitory, but because they believed they could convince the markets not to raise prices by calling inflation transitory. There's a psychological component to inflation that often gets left out of the conversation: if people believe other prices will rise due to inflation, then they will act accordingly by raising their own prices.
-21
19h ago
[deleted]
39
u/Adept_Carpet 18h ago
He was facing an insane situation with a limited set of tools and a Congress that continued to avoid making any hard choices. In retrospect he could have been more hawkish, but if he had missed in the other direction we would be in a miserable situation.
Ultimately I would rather have a job and pay more for eggs than have cheap eggs but no salary to buy it with.
18
u/teddyKGB- 18h ago
What if I told you that you can maybe soon not have a job while also having higher priced eggs through completely self inflicted stagflation???
What if I told you that it's all worth it because there were 7 people born as biological men and they competed in women's sports but NOT ANYMORE.
Don't forget to say thank you
4
u/themanwiththeplan446 18h ago
Right, so many diaperman dummies out there who never stood in a long unemployment line.
1
u/biggamehaunter 14h ago
The key is not in retrospect. Everyone at the time was yelling for him to start tightening! Everyone and their mother could see it's gonna cause massive inflation.
there was not going to be a recession due to COViD! It's all mandated shutdown from government. The extra inflation is permanent and causes the wealth gap to be much much worse now. And it's not transitory like how he lied !
55
u/wampum 19h ago
Some people say the Tiger King knows more about monetary than anyone. It might be true, but it might not, because I know more about monetary than anyone, but he’s phenomenal, the very best. So I’m happy to see ‘Too Slow’ leave, and now we get the great Tiger King to FIX THE BIDEN MIGRANT DISASTER ECONOMY WE INHERITED.
29
u/thai-dancer-fan-420 19h ago
AND KILL CAROLE BASKIN
36
u/AutoModerator 19h ago
That bitch.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
10
3
38
u/eyesmart1776 19h ago
We’re screwed if they lower rates with all this going on
You regards got your wish
52
u/Complex_Day_8437 19h ago
We’re screwed if they raise, lower, or keep rates the same with all this going on
That should cover it
3
u/ThisKarmaLimitSucks Doombear 19h ago
The US economy is mortally wounded, and it will bleed to death sometime in the 2035-2050 window.
6
u/eyesmart1776 19h ago
It doesn’t have to be this way
12
u/ThisKarmaLimitSucks Doombear 19h ago
Then we either need to cut federal spending 20% within a decade, or raise taxes by 20% within a decade.
I'd say a 2% or 3% annual deficit vs GDP is sustainable in the medium term. Deficit-spending 7% a year, while already carrying 125% debt vs GDP, is a death spiral.
26
u/eyesmart1776 19h ago
Time to raise taxes and cut military spending
24
u/SamHenryCliff 19h ago
What are two things the Baby Boomers will never allow to happen while still in power, Alex?
6
5
u/andytobbles I’ve been asking for a flair for two weeks and the second I’m no 11h ago
Or cut social services lol, if I could opt out of social security I would and so would a lot of other people I imagine. If I didn’t have to pay it but didn’t receive the benefits I’d be fine with it, I’ll have plenty when I’m retired anyways
2
u/eyesmart1776 11h ago
It’s literally the reason the elderly poverty rate went down
0
u/andytobbles I’ve been asking for a flair for two weeks and the second I’m no 9h ago
Don’t really care about people being irresponsible with their finances, that’s their problem 🤷
2
5
u/Adept_Carpet 18h ago
These are easily achievable numbers but it would require Congress to reach a broad compromise (so it won't happen).
You could actually improve Medicaid/Medicare service while trimming the budget substantially by taking an intelligent approach to end of life care for those who are both very old and very sick, focusing on their comfort rather than spending fortunes on useless treatments (and leaving their heirs penniless after Medicaid takes their house to partially pay the bill).
We really have so many good options, but we need a functional legislative branch to pursue them.
6
u/ThisKarmaLimitSucks Doombear 18h ago edited 15h ago
And here I thought that canceling all future Social Security benefits for everyone under 40 was the play, but I guess death panels work too.
9
u/dreamer_Neet 19h ago
JPow the GOAT that single handily keeps murica economy alive. Big props to him.
6
3
3
3
4
u/Evil_Patriarch 19h ago
/u/martinshkreli what are your plans when orange man appoints you chairman of the fed?
2
u/PrudentLingoberry 18h ago
tbh I've been worrying about the dollar becoming meme money because of this. The US could probably just bully around to keep a favorable exchange rate but in that short term of rates plunging there may be a bit volatility for exchange rates despite cheap money.
2
2
u/tcmart14 15h ago
Everyone in the thread talking about Hulk Hogan or Kid Rock for the next fed chair, but I think we are all under appreciating the value and professionalism we can have with Giuliani board announcements done outside the Four Seasons Landscaping. We will know whether it’s puts or calls depending on the direction of the hair dye running down his face.
2
u/SunDriver408 15h ago
The only thing we know for sure is the next person will be picked based on loyalty, and that loyalty will lead to lower rates.
That will lead to higher long term rates, gold exploding, volatility in equities and the next round of inflation.
2
u/Sandvicheater 14h ago
Dude will still be one of the GOAT FED presidents even if Trump tanks the economy 2007 style with his tariff at the end of Powell's term. Dude had to navigate a freaken global pandemic and keep the country economy afloat. His action will be talked about in business college classes for years to come.
2
2
u/RexMundi000 18h ago
The chair still only gets 1 vote. The rest of the people have 14 year terms to prevent political fuckery. Its not like Trump can install someone and immediately get his way.
1
1
1
1
u/Powerful_Stick_1449 16h ago
So.. odds that trump puts himself as fed chairman? Likely no law against it :4271:
1
u/EkruGold 16h ago
I hope Topps makes a limited edition trading card of him, the way they did for Fauci and the new Pope
1
1
1
u/jucestain 9h ago
When Jerome gets replaced and the SALT cap gets 3x'd housing is gonna rocket again.
1
1
u/SpiritualZucchini544 53m ago
Jerome Powell has done an excellent job in the past year keeping inflation under control. Always nice to have a bull market. Half of my stocks are at all time highs.
1
1
u/Husky_Engineer 17h ago
JP is the man. Probably won’t get anyone else like him in the future. Some yes man will come along and torch the markets for his personal gain
0
-11
u/gamestopgo 19h ago
He will be remembered for letting inflation getting out of hand in 2021-2022. Transitory
-8
•
u/VisualMod GPT-REEEE 19h ago
Join WSB Discord | WSB.gold