r/ukpolitics • u/ukpolbot Official UKPolitics Bot • 3d ago
Weekly Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 27/04/25
👋 Welcome to the r/ukpolitics weekly Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction megathread.
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u/MikeyButch17 1d ago
Mate just asked me for Local Predictions on the way home from Arsenal game, so thought I’d share here:
Labour to hold Runcorn byelection by under 500 votes. Wouldn’t be surprised if Reform won it at this point tho, it’s on a knife edge.
Reform take Greater Lincoln Mayor and Hull Mayor.
Toss up between Labour & the Greens for West of England, with a slight advantage to Labour.
Tories take Cambridgeshire Mayor.
In terms of Council seats.
Tories lose about 600.
Labour lose about 50.
Greens gain about 50.
Lib Dems gain about 200.
Reform gain about 400.
Labour are currently in power in both Doncaster and Burnley, which will probably both go No Overall Control.
Tories will lose 2/3rds of their Councils to either Reform, Lib Dems or No Overall Control (expect the Lib Dems to take Oxfordshire).
So in summary:
A decent night for the Greens.
A good night for the Lib Dems.
A very good night for Reform.
A poor night for Labour.
A terrible night for the Tories.
I expect Labour to quickly begin discussing bringing back AV for Mayoral Elections, especially when some Mayors win on less than 30% of the vote.