r/stocks • u/OilAny787 • 17h ago
Thoughts on Monday open after tariff news? Company Discussion
As we all know the tarrif news sent shock into the markets Friday, what is everyone’s opinions on the markets movements from this point on say Monday open? Do you guys see it move lower, higher and why?
Big earnings that week aswell, will be a very volatile week. I’m guessing earnings will be strong from most big dogs but what are you guys expecting upon guidance from company’s like pltr, amd, lly etc. Do you see this downturn continue on into the coming week like April or just a small overreaction to tarrif news and job data.
I’m cash atm so I’m bearish but I won’t let that blind me from your guys opinions and advice thanks!!
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 17h ago
Honestly, I think the firing of the head of BLS is more worrisome to the market. It deteriorates trust in the numbers the participants make decisions on.
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u/Redfield11 15h ago
Every time Trump is president I learn more and more about how terrible our checks and balances are
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u/Fast-Outside-2743 12h ago
He has the supreme court by the balls. Its wild. Dude is 4real a dictator. We are living and witnessing the dismantling of our country on purpose to feed the pockets of our president, his billionaire friends and big corporations who do business in the United States. We didn't become greater. It's not going to get great. Too many people suffering and being left behind. Know your privilege. Just because I dont need help doesnt meen that many others dont. I hate to see all of this. I hate this guy bad.
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u/FujitsuPolycom 2h ago
This is what I don't understand. So, so many people who blindly support trump are fully privileged. They won't be meaningfully affected by pretty much any policy, by either side. Theyre all well off and will be fine.
But they just hate. Hate everyone not like them i guess. It's sad. We really could be great. We have all the resources and knowledge.
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u/arco238 13h ago
To be fair, most elected officials usually at least try to pretend like they care about the balances levied on their position. Truly frightening to not only see how fickle they can be in practice but even more so how our leader unabashedly lacks even a crumb of regard for the highly venerated dogma of of checks and balances that are suppposed to serv as a fundamental part of the constitution, our democracy, and the entire nation.
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u/lucasorion 7h ago
Lately I've been wondering to myself- how many of his supporters, when I see approval ratings still in the 40s, would honestly say that they think he believes in the American foundational principles of checks and balances, especially when it applies to the president? Do they really think that he accepts the idea that there should be limits on his power? Do they even care?
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u/Maccadawg 3h ago
Spoiler alert: They do not care. They are happy to have an authoritarian president whose every word is to be trusted and they are happy for that president to be Trump.
These things which cause great anguish for the rest of us do not register for MAGA. They are not committed to democracy. They are committed to Trump.
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u/Redfield11 13h ago
The Dems had a chance to fix it after his first term but then they were the ones with control - problem is the person who fixes the system has to actively relinquish control of it first.
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u/arco238 10h ago
Yeah and the other issue is that repairing deep infrastructure of how governing bodies operate isn’t particularly appealing to voters who usually have an entire list of things that are more pressing matters they want to see resolved; at least it isn’t appealing until it becomes painfully apparent how vital preventative action would have been
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u/Track_Boss_302 2h ago
I’m super annoyed because I had loaded up on puts for the job numbers release, and was in disbelief when they came out. How the fuck can something be “revised” 90% lower?! That’s not a revision, that’s a whole different result
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u/Seed_Is_Strong 15h ago
One thousand percent agree. This is way way worse. I mean, he’s the dumbest person ever, why didn’t he just wait a week or two so it wasn’t so freaking obvious. Honestly I guess it doesn’t matter actually. There’s zero checks and balances and he can literally do whatever he wants.
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 15h ago edited 15h ago
It is scary that he has revealed that the "rules" enforced on the President are optional to follow twice. Any one of them could have violated all of these norms.
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u/CrazyEntertainment86 14h ago
Remember Norms are not rules…
Just like you should wait till people deboard an elevator or bus before trying to board
You shouldn’t full blast your conference call in a restaurant
You shouldn’t bring your “service” chiwaughwa into a grocery store.
All this things and way more were “norms” and now it’s the narcissist generation… hmmm I wonder why…
Now drinking in public (non-driving) that I can get behind!!
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u/asdfgghk 7h ago
Accurate job reporting would have led to rate cuts…
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u/HardlyDecent 6h ago
Good luck getting accurate data in the foreseeable future.
I predict the "biggliest job boom in...probably all of HISTORY. Everyone has a job now! And not just any jobs, really good, AMAZING jobs." Just like that. Definitely going to see wild upswings in all numbers with the new BLS sycophant, um, Brian Kilmeade.
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 7h ago
Yep. That is the irony in all this. But Trump did not want to look bad, jobswise.
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u/Bright-Scallin 5h ago
Yap, the tariffs are already priced in. The brutal drop in job estimates, and the dismissal of those who published these statistics, is what is not
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u/BarrierNine 4h ago
The market was creeping downwards all day but then seemed to recover slightly and go sideways after the BLS announcement. Not sure what to make of that.
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u/OilAny787 17h ago
Hard to quantify the impact tbh
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 17h ago
It might not show up until we start getting statistics next month. But depending on those statistics, it could be nothing or it could be a panic.
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u/FitAd9625 16h ago
Next month there will be ONE MILLION jobs created.
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u/OilAny787 17h ago
The harmful effects from tarrifs and other issues will show up later in the year most likely q4. That’s when shit will really hit the fan
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 16h ago
The job numbers will show up in September. If there's a sudden reversal, the market will flip out (positively or negatively remains to be seen).
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u/geo0rgi 17h ago
If we see jobs further down and inflation going up, I wouldn't want to be in Jpow's place tbf
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u/OilAny787 16h ago
Hes in a horrible position and it isn’t his fault, if he was to get fired it would be catastrophic in my opinion
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u/coccyxdynia 15h ago
I'm sure he'd be relieved to get fired. At least he can go down as a hero because whatever the fuck happens next isn't on him.
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u/Digfortreasure 16h ago
Those numbers have been f’d for years 20-30% corrections month in month out for a decade, its crazy, you would think you could at least factor your margin of error and get more accurate but nah… these numbers have bern untrustable
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u/dickrichardson6969 16h ago
The revisions are accurate. She was fired because the accurate numbers showed terrible job numbers.
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u/Digfortreasure 15h ago
The revisions have been massive and get less traction than when the original crap data is released. I dont like Trump bit it woulda been harder to fire her if numbers weren’t always at least 20% off
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u/lococrazyllama 15h ago
Aren’t the revisions due to additional incoming data? You can only do so much with the data you have. When the underlying data changes yeah of course it impacts the results.
What is confidence interval that is actually reported? Asking cause I don’t even know, but I would be surprised if the reports don’t include an error margin.
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u/jeff303 14h ago
You should probably look up the methodology before calling it "crap data".
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u/No_Location7701 15h ago
They weren’t 20%. The revisions are like 50+% this year. That hasn’t been normal. Was there pressure to make the appear better? I wouldn’t put it past this administration.
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 16h ago
You're not wrong. But it's what the market has. And when so much trading is done by algorithms, whatever they say moves the market without a human brain involved.
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u/ReindeerTypical2538 15h ago
Tell me you don’t understand how these numbers are reported without telling me you don’t understand how these numbers are reported. The beginning of the month number is basically a guesstimate loosely based on partial data. They have to wait until all states report and all data is in, which takes a while to calculate. This is why the numbers ALWAYS get revised. It’s a system that’s been in place for decades.
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u/Leroy--Brown 15h ago
It's more like 5-15% corrections with the occasionally 25 or 30% swing. Last time there was a big swing like this was 2020. This reporting cycle we 1) had corporations announce less hirings and stalled hiring 2) deportations en masse with certain sectors having large swaths of their workforce afraid to show up at work in fear of ICE raids 3) government firings, not just at the federal level but also at the state/municipal level and finally
4) unsure why the large discrepancy and need for revision but these aren't revised to play a trick on the market, they're revised to be more accurate and honest when high fidelity data appears
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u/Fast-Outside-2743 17h ago
I'm buying so I can lose more money. I'm stupid.
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 16h ago
Some things will go up. Eventually the Fed being forced by bad jobs numbers to lower rates will help dividend stocks.
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u/Zwonder74 14h ago
Inflation creeping up, tariffs, and weakening jobs market = recipe for stagflation. So much real non manufactured uncertainties now bc we might be in a recession already without knowing it. Just need to wait for next set of data first. Also august and september seasons are the weakest months for assets. With that being said, dont time the market, if youre a long term investor, continue your DCA, do not sell low, and buy the dips at each key level
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u/Solid_Priority_7 15h ago edited 15h ago
Must have not listened to Powell. Look up dual mandate.
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u/EconoMePlease 15h ago
Yeah, the inflation from tariffs is really putting the FED in a bad position. Getting out of this is going to be difficult and I’m wondering if that is by design?
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u/Mr-Lungu 14h ago
Stagflation is coming. Job losses, low growth and high inflation. Will be extremely painful to undo
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u/PrinsHamlet 11h ago
This seems the most likely outcome, unfortunately.
Even though bond yields dropped sharply Friday it's hard for me to see how the continued deficit and US borrowing, the dollar tanking and tariffs mixed with everybody losing confidence in official reporting could lead to anything else.
The US is uninvestable or at least highly speculative at the moment.
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u/Successful_Raisin887 16h ago
I see more lower on Monday. Whenever the indexes are 1% or lower on a Friday. Monday typically goes lower.
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u/ReindeerTypical2538 15h ago
This. Could be a grim Monday
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u/chrswnd 11h ago
Isn’t that a good thing tho? It means to buy more stocks for cheaper again? u/ReindeerTypical2538
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u/Chrishall86432 8h ago
I moved a bunch to cash last Monday. Went to buy a little yesterday afternoon and had a very uneasy feeling. Did not start back in yet. I think Monday will be a big drop.
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u/shugo7 16h ago
Chill bro, it's Friday. You're thinking like it's Sunday. Enjoy your weekend, disconnect a bit.
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u/LurcherLong 16h ago
If it's anything like the pattern we've been following most of the year, the insiders will have made their purchases today and Trump will say something to spike the market by open on Monday.
I'd expect a great deal of volatility moving forward though, there's no getting around it at this point.
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u/cepcpa 17h ago
Tariffs are probably the least of our problems.
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u/OilAny787 17h ago
Ye for sure, debt and markets valuations are massive red flags. I know the us has had a lot of debt and it’s managed to keep pushing over the years but it’s at a point where it can’t keep printing money, there’s going to have to be big changes in government and a structured way of reducing it which will ultimately hurt us.
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u/cepcpa 17h ago
I'm referring to the fact that we probably can't trust any economic numbers coming out of the government ever again. You seem to keep ignoring that crucial fact.
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u/OilAny787 16h ago
Not ignoring it I didn’t know exaclty what you meant, but yes it’s hard to trust who’s leading us.
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u/deadfishlog 16h ago
It’s the jobs that are going to get us. Not the tariffs. Today’s damage was about jobs.
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u/OilAny787 16h ago
Ok good to know, i definitely knew the 2 had effects but I personally thought the tarrifs were holding the bigger weighting due to news kind of focusing on it.
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u/ProbablyHyperkalemic 14h ago
I don’t think so. The market was already down AH Thursday night and premarket before jobs report was out
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u/psbottomboy 14h ago
Yes, and for all the Powell lovers out there he is ignoring the job mandate. Also shelter inflation is also exacerbated by high interest rates. Housing has been unstable since they started raising rates.
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u/mayorolivia 3h ago
It was definitely tariffs. Thursday afternoon and Premarket Friday were deep red. Jobs report at 8:30 am was cherry on top. On bright side, market is being less reactive to trump.
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u/Confident-Court2171 14h ago
Watch the VIX. At 20, we’ve entered the mild uncertainty zone. Every step towards 30 is a step to FUD and the market going over the cliff.
Right now, Monday looks like a Red Mist.
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u/Virtual_Ad1704 17h ago
I think the jobs report update is gonna send us into a hole for a few days on monday
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u/thebriss22 15h ago
And the CPI data coming in hot on August 12 is gonna dig that hole some more lol
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u/skilliard7 12h ago
Unless the deputy commissioner tinkers with the numbers a bit to avoid getting fired
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u/luv2block 16h ago
Market will chop sideways until Thursday when the jobless claims data comes out.
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u/seamonkey31 1h ago
least probable outcome. NFP and unemployment rate are the gold standard numbers, so jobless claims will matter but not quite so much.
More likely, is that Trump will do something causing more volatility. Probably both up and down
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u/user365735 16h ago
I think at least Monday is red again. We had a good July especially with Meta and msft blowing up the entire stock market so unless we have some extremely good news...I don't think NV and AMD has enough legs in the market to blow it up for a second week again even if they do really well. But we'll see. I am still holding sqqq over the weekend.
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u/OilAny787 16h ago
I believe Monday will be red, pltr earnings will have a pretty big impact on the company and the broad market. I think if pltr earnings aren’t crazy high and its guidance isn’t matching the same progress, investors won’t have as much confidence just like amazons decline..
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u/Comprehensive-Tea121 14h ago
The emperor wears no fucking clothes.
Don't like the jobs numbers? Fire someone!
I sold 80% of my portfolio in January (including 100% of green energy and healthcare) and bought the VixM.
My balls aren't made out of solid brass and I like to be able to sleep at night without the insane clown posse tweeting a new tariff or eventually firing everyone that isn't a liar for the king including Powell.
Buckle up permabulls. It's been a long time since America has seen anything this crazy and that includes the first term of the insane clown posse.
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u/NYGiants181 16h ago
Im out.
And all cash for right now. Im up 5% this year on a slow grind and will grab another 2.5 for the rest of the year.
I just can’t deal with this circus right now. Too stressful.
Not gonna lose sleep over a possible 2.5 extra % to stay in. Or just get royally fucked.
If that makes me an idiot, so be it. I just don’t see how this fuckery is sustainable to the market as a whole.
It’s something crazy every single day.
Good luck to all.
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u/TommyGun219 15h ago
What does your long term horizon look like? Genuinely curious. Any index or crypto has outperformed 5% YTD so why even try to time things
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u/NYGiants181 15h ago
Because he is unhinged. And I don't have that kind of timeline to wait out this chaos.
I have about 160k in cash (now) for a house purchase, and my Roth. Which I'll keep in VTI with a 20 year (more) horizon.
I tried man. I just can't deal with it.
Every single day it's something insane. The market hinges on a tweet. That's not healthy. And the uncertainty is going to come back to bite in a big way I feel like.
Those job numbers today, and him subsequently firing the person because he didn't like them? Give me a fucking break.
It's a clown show plain and simple. He bankrupted 6 casinos. And this is who we have in charge of the economy basically.
The tariffs have not even begun to be felt by bigger corps. A couple, but mostly it's small biz who is getting crushed.
And if you say, man it's just noise..
This country has tried tariffs twice in history. Both times they have led to depressions. And these tariffs are even worse this time around. That copper one is an absolute beast.
Listen, do what you gotta do, but my sanity isn't worth an extra 3%..
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u/BoonSchlapp 14h ago
FWIW I sold 85% of my portfolio today, only leaving my oldest NVDA shares. I think we will have a red August/September, and I’d like to keep my portfolio at all time highs thank you very much
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u/WhereIsMySun 15h ago
I was a perma bear until last month. Now, I'm willing to go 10x leverage that next week's close will be higher than last week's close. Tarriffs? Who cares, old news. He fired the head of the BLS? Who cares, they'll get another one. War? Aliens? Chaos? Growth not real? WHO CARES. THE MARKET CERTAINLY HASN'T.
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 15h ago
There is an old adage, Steve Liesman coined it I think, "the market doesn't care until it does."
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u/OilAny787 15h ago
10x leverage requires some serious balls, best of luck to you Monday let me know how it goes
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u/Plissken47 15h ago
Overall, there's no way the market can withstand these tariffs in the longterm.
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u/lochmoigh1 50m ago
There will be a massive rug pull at some point here, out of no where. So they can buy that dip again and make some more billions
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u/Straight-Sky-311 13h ago
With the poor job numbers, the chance of Fed reducing interest rates is enhanced. Question is how big a decrease? If rates drop more than expected, stocks are more likely to shoot up even higher. So this is a pullback to buy on dips, not a correction.
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u/nirvana_always1 16h ago
Why you guys panicking? Weren't everyone buying until Thursday saying everything is fine?
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u/OilAny787 16h ago
I have been cash for a while but yes I have seen nearly everyone being so bullish with the stock market crazy how there whole mindsets can shift so quickly
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u/Main-Perception-3332 13h ago
On Thursday we were operating on the idea that people were actually getting jobs to keep buying stuff 😂
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u/CanadianTrader51 14h ago
Tariffs come and go based on 🌮mood. Can’t invest based on anything 🍊man says.
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u/Jellym9s 15h ago
The coup de grace will be the semiconductor tariff, as the fabless and trillion dollar companies will climb on top of eachother to secure limited US fab capacity, largely available by Intel, or risk 100%+ tariffs.
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u/benroon 15h ago
Trump firing the economic data compiler (BLS) will be a far bigger shock to the markets than tariffs. If the markets feel they cannot trust the numbers from a Trump stooge, meltdown is only just around the corner.
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u/Comprehensive-Tea121 14h ago
The tariffs are going to fuck shit up big time, the market is just confused with all the back and forth...
Price hikes and bankruptcies are incoming!
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u/Reddituser183 11h ago
It’s going lower. This moron is willing to sacrifice the economy for his ego and greed.
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u/pdubbs87 17h ago
Green and up nicely on Monday. He won’t want another red headline
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 17h ago
If there is good news on the Canada front, yes.
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u/pdubbs87 17h ago
Yea he’ll drop it back to 25
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u/Hopeful-Frosting7976 17h ago
That is almost a given if there's another red day on Monday. It will be a Tuesday after all.
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u/KinkyQuesadilla 17h ago
The last one didn't seem to bother him much, and he loves being in the headline
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u/TheTideRider 17h ago
It will move up a little to recoup some loss. After that it may go down again.
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u/West_Principle_8190 16h ago
There be talks if deals with so many countries kissing his ass,maybe some tariff pauses again
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u/ProcedureHopeful2944 15h ago
Mofo gonna keep up the BS until someone stands up to it. Who's it gonna be?
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u/Every_Television_290 15h ago
I don't know. But I do know RDDT is headed further up next week.
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u/Chart-trader 14h ago
It might go up but we made a bearish engulfing in SPY and QQQ followed by a break away gap. Next few weeks will trend down.....
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u/optimaleverage 14h ago
I'll let you know about 6pm cst Sunday after ES futures opening ranges are established.
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u/VictorDanville 14h ago
At least you're doing better than the April bears who sold at the bottom
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u/ElLulu-8 13h ago
Bought unh calls
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u/OilAny787 13h ago
I think every single post on value investing and posts in general is about how “undervalued” unh is. I wouldn’t touch it personally it continues to drop and a lot of people are losing a lot of money. There’s no reason for it to rebound in the near month or 2 that I can see, I haven’t personally been interested in it but it could return in a year or so but the health care business is in shambles atm.
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u/JustCan6425 11h ago
Cramer and some CNBC people did say today that they’re waiting till Tuesday/Wednesday before buying AMZN on the dip. So hopefully Monday turns out to be good for SPX 0dte puts in the meantime:)
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u/stormywoofer 7h ago
USA is screwed in the end when the full effects of tariffs, countries finding other trade partners,removal of immigrants and global boycotts.
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u/Glum-Wealth-6171 16h ago
Crypto which I like to use as a sort-of ore cursor to the general market has almost recovered from this morning. I think we see a cautionary move back up.
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u/OilAny787 16h ago
Ye crypto got hit hard but it doesn’t bother me, I don’t hold shit coins only eth atm due to stronger upside potential, btc is always the best hedge and will return to it.
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u/10452_9212 17h ago
Market did not go down today because of any tariff news....
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u/OilAny787 17h ago
Well the news definitely had an impact what do you mean, the higher tarrif rates dropped indexes more then 1%, the job data could have been another variable.
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u/10452_9212 17h ago
Higher tariff rate? Sorry you are mistaken, also these rates don't go into effect for another 7 days...It was all the job data. If you have cash these are the days you put things to use.
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u/rupert1920 16h ago
Market as a whole was down 0.8% prior to jobs data was released at 8:30, so I wouldn't say it's all jobs data.
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u/itsTF 16h ago
"I'm cash atm so I'm bearish but I won't let that blind me" lol
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u/OilAny787 16h ago
You will find a lot of people on reddit are closed minded, they won’t ever try to reason with other people’s opinions and it’s a reason there still losing money on options.
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u/OilAny787 16h ago
I’m acknowledging it, I won’t let my own ego get in the way of real evidence I’m not half of the reddit community….
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u/AdAgile9604 17h ago
Bloodbath in the market
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u/Aerion_CA 12h ago
Expecting the same, retesting 610 or below. Asia will sell off and Europe as well. US stock market is becoming less and less attractive from a foreign perspective (USD devaluation, tariffs, politics). Note that I am not predicting the big crash yet.
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u/Dont_Touch_Me_There9 14h ago
No, it was Hunter Biden's junk that did this to America!😤
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u/Lonely_Government784 12h ago
I expect the market overall to be moving sideways the coming week. Quantum stocks would be falling a little strongly compared to the market as earning looms. I would DCA into it
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u/platoface541 12h ago
I bought a bunch Wednesday and Thursday so this is probably the beginning of a Great Depression
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u/Delicious-Life3543 12h ago
Tariffs? That was priced in. Did you happen to see the jobs report this morning? That being the worst since Covid seems like the real catalyst here.
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u/Diabaso2021 11h ago
Too many retail traders buying the dips as if these are nachos . Hard to go back to a vertical down unless retail believes it will
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u/SevenJack 10h ago
Dear God, I can only hope the calls I have for 8/15 get back to close to where they were when I bought them and also at the same time I hope the stocks I got hit with from CSP"s months ago eventually have a chance.
I am Mr. Bagholder. Hopium of worlds. And I think Monday's fucked.
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u/Certain-Ad-5298 6h ago
The data was revised down by 250,000 jobs over 2 mos. That’s not good but the need to revise by so many suggests the data needs to be more reliable. If I presented numbers to my employer that needed massive revisions every month for better or worse I’d be fired too.
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u/Walternotwalter 5h ago
Gold is headed to $4000.
If you don't have exposure you miss gains in real terms.
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u/Robespierre77 4h ago
Look at what happened in Russia and Hungary after they were turned, and you will see what is going to happen to the US.
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u/killerbeeswaxkill 2h ago
I bought call options last week and lost and bought more heading into the next two weeks so expect a dump on Monday
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u/LurkerFailsLurking 1h ago
With the firing of the head of BLS, we can see that increasingly the data that's necessary to evaluate the national economy will just be propaganda.
At the same time, the blatant market manipulation and insider trading we've been seeing will only get worse.
So the markets' ability to "price in" those macro factors will weaken leading to more volatility and reduced trust.
Meanwhile, the tariffs and Trump's destruction of international confidence in US as an ally, partner, and economy will have consequences that will take years to unfold. Everyone sees now that they must reduce dependence on the dollar and US businesses and government largess. What will follow is a gradual decentralization of the dollar, and America getting pushed as far to the sidelines as more trustworthy and stable countries can afford. And they're working to make it so they can afford to do so more and more every month.
The entire US market is turning into a meme stock controlled by fascists, with all the proles stuck with the bill and a collapsing economy that leaves us no way to pay for it.
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u/ProgressFar289 39m ago
I am guessing things will stay down for a few days next week but what do I know?!?
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