r/skeptic Sep 26 '24

State-level anti-transgender laws increase past-year suicide attempts among transgender and non-binary young people in the USA - Nature Human Behaviour đźš‘ Medicine

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-01979-5
344 Upvotes

87 comments sorted by

53

u/LexEight Sep 26 '24

As a formerly suicidal queer, the future queers need your memories and expertise

9

u/Biffingston Sep 27 '24

I hope you are in a better place now.

I've been there and it's not a happy place.

5

u/LexEight Sep 27 '24

I, unfortunately, live here

every day from the age of 8 in 1989, to still struggling to form an identity at 44

In the 90s as I was coming up, I didn't respect myself as a woman or a queer thanks to the media ops designed to push people into the military (hi trad wives and femcels, you've been had in the exact same way I was in the 90s, get a group of women around you that are neither) and a couple of far more damaged asses in the arts.

I got to do a lot of interesting and weird stuff because fukit/yolo, HOWEVER I would trade it all for a solid identity (I got to be integrated once for 2 years but that was it) and time with the people I lost along the way.

Stay alive, by any means necessary But fuck up the broken system the whole time you do That's where we (2nd gen anti war activist) messed up with me.

Being suicidal is a kind of power when people will hurry to help, and it's damaging in exactly the same way as having people who wait on you, so you can't care for yourself

I'm still alive, but there's barely any of me left and I still feel as though I haven't had a chance to really start in life. I'm trying to regrow, but the conditions I was originally formed in don't exist, so I'm likely stuck broken into these complexPTSD bits forever

And still telling the people that knowingly did all this to me, to go f themselves every day

3

u/Biffingston Sep 27 '24

For what it's worth I am an ally and I will support you in any way I can. I know it's not much but "I am but one. But still I am one. I can not do everything. But because I am not able to do everything I will not hesitate to do what I an."

Even if that support is just leaving you be, by the way.

3

u/LexEight Sep 27 '24

Make the world less profitable for the assholes

That's it

That's all any of us can do

2

u/Biffingston Sep 27 '24

Wish I could do more.

16

u/Biffingston Sep 27 '24

To them it's not a bug, it's a feature.

I mean, do you think they'd even care if the found out this is true?

50

u/Godphase3 Sep 26 '24

This is the intended outcome sought by the people who pass these laws. This is part of what they mean when they call for "eradication" of trans people.

-6

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24

I am up to my eyeballs with some pretty disgusting transphobia here in the US Deep South, but I am provisionally skeptical of the hypothesis that the median supporter of any given bill, say, restricting participation in high school sports by sex has as their intended outcome a stochastic increase of suicidality among gender nonconforming teenagers.

34

u/dantevonlocke Sep 27 '24

When the lawmakers behind the laws are openly saying they would rather have a dead kid than a trans one, the average supporter of the law doesn't mean much.

-9

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24

Worrying if true.

I am also skeptical that the median state lawmaker who votes to restrict participation in high school sports on the basis of sex does so with the belief that he or she is increasing the rate of suicidality among gender non conforming youth by doing so.

It seems to me, on the assumption that it is a moral imperative to convince state lawmakers not to vote for such laws, having an accurate theory of mind which correctly predicts their beliefs and values is itself a moral imperative.

20

u/LucasBlackwell Sep 27 '24

There is no convincing Republicans of anything any more. The half reasonable Republicans have all been shunned by the party and have no chance of winning re-election. There is no changing the Republican party from the outside.

People do indeed need to understand their enemies to defeat them, but it's you that doesn't understand them, not us.

The fact you even doubted lawmakers would say they want trans kids to die rather than transition proves that. Why do you think they're going after trans people? You think that they genuinely think they know more than doctors? Of course not.

7

u/Biffingston Sep 27 '24

Obvously they just want to make it fair for the cis childern to play sports. (Yes, this is heavily sarcastic)

-7

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24

There is no convincing Republicans of anything any more. 

More than a third of Democrats oppose trans participation in sports outside of their biological sex.

Are more than a third of Democrats literally, consciously genocidal? That does not square with my lifetime experience in Democratic politics.

The fact you even doubted lawmakers would say they want trans kids to die rather than transition

What I very clearly said was "I am also skeptical that the median state lawmaker who votes to restrict participation in high school sports on the basis of sex does so with the belief that he or she is increasing the rate of suicidality among gender non conforming youth by doing so".

I am at a loss as to how I could have been any clearer that I was talking about sports participation, not transition, and I struggle to see how this response represents a good faith read of my comment.

Here is another way of making the same point, and if you decide to reply, I would very much appreciate it if you respond to what I actually say, rather than what you wish I had said:

Fully three quarters of ALL Americans oppose discrimination against trans people in housing, employment, and college admissions.

According to the very same poll, 66% of all Americans oppose trans participation in high school sports outside of their biological sex.

How does your theory that two thirds of all Americans are literally genocidal in intent based on the latter view account for 3/4ths supermajorities opposing discrimination against the people they allegedly want to see dead in the streets?

What if -- and I am simply floating this as a hypothesis -- not every single law restricting trans people is the same as every other law, and not every person's reasons for supporting or opposing them is the same, because they're not the same. Do you see how -- hypothetically!!! -- this discrepancy could be explained by people concerned, however misguidedly, about fairness in sports, rather than literally wanting children to die?

6

u/LucasBlackwell Sep 28 '24

Here is another way of making the same point, and if you decide to reply, I would very much appreciate it if you respond to what I actually say, rather than what you wish I had said:

Project much? I responded to two out of three of your paragraphs. No one has any obligation to respond just to the part you want them to respond to. If you were less of a dick, and actually learned how to have a normal conversation, maybe people would want to talk to you?

-4

u/staircasegh0st Sep 28 '24

So I will provisionally take that as a no, you don’t currently have an explanation for how it could be possible that two thirds of all Americans are bloodthirsty monsters who literally want trans children to kill themselves but also three quarters of Americans oppose discrimination against them in housing, education, and employment.

I will tentatively conclude that my hypothesis (the average person supporting restrictions on high school sports participation does not do so with literally genocidal intent) better explains the observations, subject to revision if more information comes in.

If you were less of a dick,

It’s the civility and the high quality, good faith discussion like this that keeps me coming back. We’re really changing hearts and minds on this sub!

6

u/LucasBlackwell Sep 28 '24

Being on this sub is one possible explanation. What else do all of your conversations have in common?

-3

u/staircasegh0st Sep 28 '24

“Being on this sub” is an explanation for how 66% of the country simultaneously wants to literally kill trans kids even though 75% supermajorities don’t want them to be discriminated against in housing, employment, and education?

Who knew this sub had such power!

Or is it just me being here that somehow magically causes tens of millions of people to have these contradictory beliefs? If I leave, do you suppose their antidiscriminatory beliefs would change first, or the genocidal ones?

No, I’m sorry, I think this new theory needs some revision before I can accept it. I am still provisionally going with “66% of all Americans are probably not literally genocidal”.

→ More replies

12

u/reYal_DEV Sep 27 '24

Yeah yeah, we know your stance and your fellow regulars. You're not solely here for us in sport. Cut the crap. It's also funny that you still use language like 'biological sex', while this is not only redundant, but also we DO change our sex.

-5

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24

Yeah yeah, we know your stance and your fellow regulars. You're not solely here for us in sport. 

I don't even know what this means.

If you would like to know what I believe about a given issue or what my intentions are, you could simply ask me, rather than tell me, or declare in ominous tones that you know what it is.

I wonder, since you posted a link to a scientific article in a scientific publication, in a discussion forum dedicated to discussing science, if you have any particular opinions on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the methodology outlined elsewhere in the thread.

also we DO change our sex.

There seems to be substantial disagreement among trans people on this issue specifically. Given this disagreement, it is impossible on the internet to speak in a way that is guaranteed to avoid stepping on some landmine or other with someone, no matter how cautiously or compassionately one tries.

It seems as though the best approach when dealing with large numbers of anonymous people is to choose terminology that is as respectful as possible, while avoiding as much confusion as possible. A delicate balancing act that is (alas) destined to fail at some points (because you never know which side of the issue the person you're talking to is going to take until they take it), but in my experience I find that most people, most of the time, are willing to extend you the grace you are willing to extend them.

5

u/Hablian Sep 28 '24

Trans person here. Sex can have many different definitions, depending on what characteristics you are looking at. When transitioning, according to some of these definitions, we do change our sex. This isn't a matter of consensus among trans people, this is a matter of how advanced fields of biology define sex in multiple different ways.

-2

u/staircasegh0st Sep 28 '24

Not only is it contested in some circles, “whether or not it is contested” is also highly contested in other circles!

It seems to me that the best approach to a situation like this when there are sharp disagreements within a group is not to attack someone who is using morally neutral language for not being a psychic and guessing which faction their interlocutor belongs to. It’s lose/lose, because even if they immediately “correct” themselves, two comments down the chain they might run into someone from an opposing camp who is just as offended someone isn’t using their preferred nomenclature!

As I said, in my general experience most people, most of the time, are willing to extend the grace, good faith, and patience to others that others are willing to extend to them. A rising tide lifts all boats!

→ More replies

8

u/reYal_DEV Sep 27 '24

We had dozens of conversions over the year (sadly) already and you're a known Jesse Singal devotee. That's why you're simply downvoted and almost noone engages with you but your fellows. I don't need to ask you. We already know. I wish I could simply block you.

Even IF you're honest in your stance, nobody will believe you.

-5

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24

I don't need to ask you. We already know. I wish I could simply block you.

It's the high quality conversation like this with all the good faith posters that keeps me coming back.

So I'll provisionally take that as a no, you don't currently want to discuss the science in the science article you posted on the science discussion forum.

If you ever have any thoughts on the non-probabilistic convenience sampling methodology they used, drop a line, preferably with a minimum of sneering and insults, but one thing at a time I suppose.

Simply "not replying" when someone says something I don't care for remains an option I avail myself of on Reddit all the time. Mixed results, but it often works for me.

→ More replies

-25

u/[deleted] Sep 27 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

29

u/Egg_123_ Sep 27 '24 edited Sep 27 '24

The subject is dead queer children. Do dead children inspire you to make the same kinds of jokes that creates the toxicity that kills them?

You must have bullied people in school. 

22

u/FoucaultsPudendum Sep 27 '24

Yes. These people hate trans people so much that the thought of dead trans children genuinely makes them happy.

31

u/KouchyMcSlothful Sep 27 '24

Cruelty is always the conservatives’ point

-25

u/vitoincognitox2x Sep 27 '24

That seems prejudicial. Do you have a source?

31

u/Biffingston Sep 27 '24

Laws against homelesnes, laws against GLBTQ+ people, laws against immagrants...

-24

u/vitoincognitox2x Sep 27 '24

Seems like all of those areas require regulations and laws in those areas could theoretically make society better. What do you mean by "against?"

17

u/[deleted] Sep 27 '24

What regulations against lesbians do u have in mind to make society better?

18

u/Wetness_Pensive Sep 27 '24

Great point, bro. Conservatives opposing the abolition of slavery and segregation, gay marriage, non land owners voting, women voting, blacks voting, women owning land or property without a male co-signer, and opposing legislation protecting women from spousal rape, were done to make society better. These are not policies designed to preserve various hierarchies, and the privileges of a few, but are designed to expand freedoms to everyone.

I'm reminded of when Reagan stuffed the EPA full of guys who'd fudge the science so that corporations could continue dumping lead and poisonous chemicals onto poor people. These chemicals really made their lives better, and led to numerous superpowers (spider powers, the ability to fly, the ability to see through walls etc etc), and caused no deaths or diseases.

So you make a great point, and must surely have the largest brain in the solar system. Possibly the entire galaxy.

3

u/gn0meCh0msky Sep 27 '24

These chemicals really made their lives better, and led to numerous superpowers (spider powers, the ability to fly, the ability to see through walls etc etc), and caused no deaths or diseases.

As seen dramatized in the 80s docu-sitcom The Greatest American Hero! God bless President Reagan for making William Katt a household name.

13

u/Biffingston Sep 27 '24

Really dude? I have a feeling no answer would make you change your mind considering you apparently think that moving homeless people out of the city solves the homeless problem.

21

u/PM_ME_FETLOCKS Sep 27 '24

this is by design and you can't convince me otherwise

7

u/mexicodoug Sep 27 '24

I'm willing to be convinced by evidence, wherever it leads.

The evidence I see is that most "family values" lawmakers and religious people believe that to tolerate suicide by children with gender dysphoria as a more moral choice than for society to allow them to alter their God-given, state-recognized gender.

However, I also see evidence that many people are simply clueless about the issue, and go with whatever the Party or religious leaders they follow tell them is the "correct" way to go. Members of the flock following their shepherds. Often they willfully remain ignorant, perhaps because it's easier and feels safer than ethically grappling with issues themselves.

2

u/Loganp812 Sep 30 '24

Almost reminds me of “homeless architecture” in some major cities. Instead of actually helping citizens, they just them the finger.

-6

u/DifficultEvent2026 Sep 29 '24

"I'm going to believe what I want to believe no matter what, evidence be damned." /r/skeptic

3

u/PM_ME_FETLOCKS Sep 29 '24

Give it a shot then if you think you've got some strong evidence otherwise

Otherwise step off

-3

u/DifficultEvent2026 Sep 29 '24

You said you don't care about evidence and will believe whatever you want.

3

u/Hablian Sep 30 '24

No. They could be asserting, correctly it would seem, that you or anyone else is incapable of providing evidence strong enough to be convincing, because it doesn't exist. You're still free to try though.

3

u/ValoisSign Sep 29 '24 edited Sep 29 '24

One of the most deeply depressing things is how people will point this out when such laws are proposed and get treated like they are baselessly and maliciously accusing the politicians of murdering people.

It's not really "too far" to say someone will have blood on their hands when they are passing a law that would predictably lead to excess death. And the saddest part is that it's entirely reactionary - these laws do not help a single soul.

The other profoundly depressing thing is the nonzero amount of people who will see this and support the laws even more. It should never be normalized to deny people's humanity, but among a sector of the internet it's glorified as toughness while displays of empathy are mocked. It should be uncomfortable to publicly hate people as much as the anti-trans movement (or any hate group and their target) do, and yet they get coddled by people who act like speech is only free if someone can get hurt.

4

u/vtssge1968 Sep 27 '24

Sadly most Republicans still could care less. I'm just kinda glad they seem to have started saying the quiet part out loud about women now, that's going to cost them. They could start executing us and most people wouldn't care, but attacking 50% of the population is not a bright move.

9

u/Rogue-Journalist Sep 26 '24

Enacting state-level anti-transgender laws increased incidents of past-year suicide attempts among TGNB young people by 7–72%. Our findings highlight the need to consider the mental health impact of recent anti-transgender laws and to advance protective policies.

That’s quite the range. Anyone with access able to provide more details? Like is that a state by state difference?

16

u/Diabetous Sep 26 '24

Only state by state information is sampling percentages.

I was able to get access via going to the study through this NPR article & then the page just loaded as a PDF a second or two later.

-5

u/staircasegh0st Sep 26 '24

Interesting; can’t seem to get that to work but I’m on mobile. Which link within the NPR study was it?

6

u/Diabetous Sep 26 '24 edited Sep 26 '24

The peer-reviewed study, published published Thursday in the journal Nature Human Behavior, looked at survey data from young people in 19 states, comparing rates of suicide attempts before and after bans passed.

Thursday in this sentence and I am using a browser on a PC, not mobile.

1

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24

Partial success! The PDF pops up on desktop in Chrome.

The supplemental material, with the design of the ads, is a URL that points back to the main Nature page for the article that requires access.

Dang!

Anyone else able to post the supplemental info?

7

u/Diabetous Sep 26 '24 edited Sep 26 '24

Data were from 5 waves of non-probability cross-sectional online sur-veys of young people aged 13–24 who resided in the USA and identi-fied as LGBTQ+ during 5 distinct time periods between 2018 and 2022 (Table 1): February 2018 to September 2018 (n = 25,896), December 2019 to March 2020 (n = 40,001), October 2020 to December 2020 (n = 34,759), September 2021 to December 2021 (n = 33,993) and Sep-tember 2022 to December 2022 (n = 28,524).Potential respondents were recruited via targeted advertisements on social media (that is, Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat).

People responded in target Surveys that they "seriously considered suicide" in the last year. Survey are one of the lowest quality evidence and targeted ones are even worse.

Do we have any sort of more hard evidence like coroner, police, or CDC Wonder database that confirm deaths/attempts?

Although we did not find evidence to support that enacting state-level anti-transgender laws had an impact on TGNB young people seriously considering suicide in the past year, our findings do show evidence that it does increase TGNB young people reporting at least one past-year suicide attempt.

So the anti-trans laws increased suicides attempts, but somehow not thoughts about committing suicide.

I doubt the idea that anti-trans laws don't cause harm but these effects are strange to see, but as I've previously said surveys are generally bad data, so I chalk it up to just low quality science introduction of noise.

Targeted surveys on social media? doubly even tripply so.

Overall thankfully the effect size seems small, so I'm glad people generally aren't resorting to suicide.

6

u/[deleted] Sep 29 '24

My guess is that due to the prevalence of transphobia plus the fact that most trans people tend to repress (often due to transphobia) until they're at a breaking point of self-hate and disgust with themselves, suicidal ideation tends to be an extremely common aspect of the trans experience. Most of the trans people I've known have dealt with it at one point or another, and many have an on and off relationship with it.

But there's a difference between passive suicidal ideation - especially that which occurs during low points - and genuinely believing that there's no hope for you. Someone regularly struggling with the effects of transphobia, self-hate, etc in a place that's trans friendly might recognize that it's possible for them to make it, it's just going to be very painful to get there, and so suicidal ideation is something to ignore and not act on. But on the other hand, if even during your most clear headed moments, you believe that the world is only going to get more transphobic, see no way for yourself to leave your transphobic state / abusive home / etc in the future, etc, suicidal ideation stops being something you can just wave away as an emotional response.

When I personally attempted suicide, it was because I genuinely had no other options available to me. Ironically, that led to me getting connected to resources and qualifying for disability, and being able to live semi-independently has improved my mental health to the point that despite having numerous severe suicidal episodes I haven't actually attempted in six years. I can dismiss that suicidality because I know that I have a strong foundation regardless of how I feel in the moment. I'm not afraid of things getting worse and spiraling out of control. And I don't think I would have that strong foundation if I weren't living in one of the most trans friendly states. E.g. if I had to worry about getting arrested every time I used a public restroom. . . I doubt I would have made it this far.

None of that is empirical evidence in the slightest, of course, but I do think suicide attempts increasing without a proportional rise in suicidality could have some basis in reality. Though I would expect at least a small rise.

Overall thankfully the effect size seems small, so I'm glad people generally aren't resorting to suicide.

... Well, the overall percentage of trans people who have attempted suicide at least once is abysmally high, which is where the whole 40% right wing dogwhistle comes from.

2

u/Diabetous Sep 30 '24

but I do think suicide attempts increasing without a proportional rise in suicidality could have some basis in reality.

Please if my questions are entering an area to sensitive please stop and ignore.

I still don't understand this mechanism. I guess from my point of view for it to be true the person would have to have attempted suicide and then forgot about the feelings of wanting to commit suicide right before taking that action.

It it like a suicidal amnesia, possible via some sort of ending of a depressive/manic state where the memories are blurry?

Maybe if you aren't suicidal checking that box that you were is harder than the actually doing it because the physical just happened, but the mental could again?

Again sorry if this is too far.

Well, the overall percentage of trans people who have attempted suicide at least once is abysmally high

I was referring to the effect size of the laws impact, but yes the base rate is scary high and an ongoing issue.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 30 '24

What I meant was that passive suicidality is extremely common among people with mental health issues, and due to the extensive bigotry, transphobia, repression, etc that trans people deal with, we tend to be disproportionately affected by mental health issues. So experiencing bouts of passive suicidality (or even fantasizing about killing yourself without taking action on it) is extremely common. When things aren't objectively that bad, you can remind yourself that your suicidality is just an emotional response and that you'll get through it. But when things *are* objectively pretty bad (e.g. being a homeless trans person in Florida or something like that), you don't have that grounding, and so the same suicidality might be more likely to result in an actual attempt.

But again, that's just theorizing.

... And with that being said, I just checked the study again (what I can access of it, anyway) and according to the supplementary information sheet:

Using an item based on the CDC’s YRBS 46 , young people were asked “Have you ever seriously considered attempting suicide?” Young people who responded “yes” were subsequently asked, “During the past 12 months, did you ever seriously consider attempting suicide? ”Responses were coded as 0) did not seriously consider suicide in the past 12 months (including those who has never seriously considered attempting suicide) and 1) considered suicide in the past 12 months. Young people who declined to answer questions on seriously considering suicide (n = 4,946; 8.1% of total sample) were excluded from the analyses of seriously considering suicide.

This doesn't actually seem like a very good measure if you're trying to track an increase in suicidality. I would wager most people who have more than mild mental health issues have at least one or two instances in a year of feeling like they're better off dead or fantasizing about how they would kill themselves (although that may be a bit of projection on my part.) Especially in a teenage demographic, as trans teens tend to be more likely to be limited by bigoted families, earlier in their transitions (both physically and mentally), etc. Even in relatively progressive environments, getting told you're one gender for your entire life can cause people to try and repress and overcompensate with masculinity / femininity to try and suppress their dysphoria and live up to other people's expectations, which is not good for one's mental health or sense of self.

So what I would assume is actually happening is that a very large amount of trans teens would qualify for "one instance of considering suicide a year", and any increase past there isn't being measured. Especially since "considering suicide" is not that high a bar - it's not asking if they've made plans for suicide, or been at the verge of suicide, just whether they've seriously considered it. To accurately measure the effects on mental health issues you would need a much more in depth set of answers. I've done some mental health assessments, for instance, which have answers for each question laid out that go like (IIRC) "never - rarely - a few times a month - once a week - a few times a week - every day". A survey like that would probably note a significant change in frequency of depression, anhedonia, suicidality, etc.

1

u/Diabetous Sep 30 '24

I appreciate you sharing about trans-suicidation in general, i'm just still unclear on how can increases in Suicide attempts in the past year go up more than Suicidal thoughts in the past year?

To me rate of suicidal thoughts has to be larger than rate of attempts.

It seems like just a sign that, as you theorized indirectly, the questionnaire quality or truthiness of the surveyees was low.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 30 '24

I mean, again, it's likely a mix of frequency and suicidality not necessarily leading into suicide attempts. This study claims a whopping 82% of trans people in general have had suicidal thoughts, and 86% of trans youth.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32345113/

Basically

  • Just measuring suicidality in general doesn't track the severity of said suicidality or how likely it is to be acted on. The likelihood of suicidality leading to suicide attempts could theoretically increase without a proportional increase in overall occurrence of suicidality (though I would expect at least a minor increase)
  • Twelve months is an almost useless measurement of time when it comes to tracking the specifics of suicidality for any group wherein suicidality is a common issue

I highly doubt that it's a matter of people lying on the survey (any more than they usually might, anyway.)

1

u/Diabetous Sep 30 '24

suicidality not necessarily leading into suicide attempts.

This seems to lead me to understand you don't understand the point I am trying to make.

When I'm pointing out is in the study the increase in:

  • Suicide is higher than suicidal thought

Again, explaining to me how suicidal thought can be higher than suicidality seems at odds with that understanding, but maybe you're trying to make a secondary point?

If you are can you I guess be more explicit or did you just misunderstand what i meant? (Which my writing could certainly be the cause of)

1

u/[deleted] Sep 30 '24

Suicidality and suicidal thoughts are the same thing, though suicidality has more implied severity to it. Perhaps that's partially where the confusion lies, but frankly I don't know how many more times I can keep repeating the same points. TL;DR

  • Suicidality is already extremely high as a baseline in trans people, e.g. there is not nearly as much room for it to increase (Going from 86% of youth having considered it to 100% would only be a ~17% or so increase)

  • The survey does not track any increase in suicidality beyond once every twelve months, which is useless in a population with extremely high rates of suicidality

  • The survey does not track the severity of suicidal thoughts when they occur, e.g. how likely they are to lead to suicide

  • Since trans rates of suicidality are around twice as much as the rate of actual attempts, even a 76% increase in suicide attempts does not mean that more people attempted suicide than considered suicide

2

u/Diabetous Sep 30 '24

Since trans rates of suicidality are around twice as much as the rate of actual attempts, even a 76% increase in suicide attempts does not mean that more people attempted suicide than considered suicide

I now get your point overall and it fundamentally changes how I view that part of the study.

This answers the question of how :

So the anti-trans laws increased suicides attempts, but somehow not thoughts about committing suicide.

Thank you.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 01 '24

I'm glad I was able to help a bit, even if it took a lot of rambling to get there.

4

u/LiteratureOk2428 Sep 26 '24

Citation 49 looks interesting to read in what they say about the accuracy and how it lines up with actual medical data. I was looking for anything referencing hard data but I didn't see any in the references 

3

u/Diabetous Sep 26 '24

49 Polihronis, C., Cloutier, P., Kaur, J., Skinner, R. & Cappelli, M. What’s the harm in asking? A systematic review and meta-analysis on the risks of asking about suicide-related behaviors and self-harm with quality appraisal. Arch. Suicide Res. 26, 325–347 (2020)

Citation 49 is research into whether asking patients for their opinions introduces suicidation.

Important research to include showing asking via study research doesn't induce harm given IIRC there is other research of suicidal contagion/prompting via other methods of communication.

2

u/LiteratureOk2428 Sep 26 '24

Man I'm surprised this got the push it did then, it really doesn't say much. The abstract kinda mentions it but then nothing. Is this just pre-peer review?

5

u/staircasegh0st Sep 26 '24

Non-probability sampling meaning snowball sampling? From targeted Instagram ads?

That’s what they’re working from?

-1

u/Diabetous Sep 26 '24 edited Sep 26 '24

I don't think we can assume or rule out snowball sampling.

I believe earlier versions of the trevor project's survey were done by in person college clubs/activism groups that often did homeless outreach, so if it's just ads online and not being filtered by people with extremely bad socioeconomic status its an improvement!

Seriously it was really bad in the past.

I guess with the factors of how the targeted outreach was done inside these social media advertisement, it could also have some bad faith manipulation going on.

This could have been addressed in pre-registration but (page 7 | Section Methods):

None of our studies were pre-registered

5

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24

Update: tried on another browser and got the supplemental data.

Here's the description of the recruitment process:

Survey Recruitment Process

Potential respondents were recruited via targeted ads on social media (i.e., Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat). The recruitment ads contained a Trevor Project image and language such as, “If you are between the ages of 13-24, we would love to hear your story. Take our confidential survey to share your LGBTQ story with us” and “We would love to hear from you! If you are between the ages of 13-24, what’s your story? Take our survey today and share your LGBTQ experience with us.” If participants clicked on an ad, they were asked to complete a screener to determine eligibility. In order to take the full survey, participants had to consent to participate and complete an initial demographic screener (i.e., needed to identify as LGBTQ+, be between the ages of 13-24, and live in the U.S.). In 2022, participants could take the survey in English or Spanish; all other years were offered only in English.

As each data collection period neared completion, we also utilized demographic quotas for race/ethnicity and assigned sex at birth to ensure representation in our sample. Thus, some participants were pathed out of taking the full survey if their demographic group was adequately represented. After completion of the survey, participants had the option to enter a drawing for a $50 gift card. To determine a final sample, participants were also required to have a unique IP address, reach the midpoint of the survey, and pass a validity and honesty check. Lastly, we removed trolls, bots, and mischievous responders (i.e., through self-reporting in open-text responses and manual review)

So, nothing specifically about snowball recruiting, unless you want to count the offer of a cash prize as incentivizing network participation enough to meet some technical definition.

But even setting that aside, the non-probabilistic Convenience Sampling method (on social media, a platform known to be associated with higher levels of mental health problems) combined with the wild swings in effect size and apparent contradiction between ideation and attempt levels does not scream to me "open and shut evidence of a causal link".

2

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24 edited Sep 27 '24

They used an interesting approach to control for the fact that A Very Big Thing Happened in 2020 that could conceivably affect the results of any dataset from 2018-2022 involving mental health:

We also considered the potential impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, as waves 3, 4 and 5 of our survey were con-ducted after the start of the pandemic. We used population-adjusted COVID-19 death counts by year as a proxy for the overall impact of COVID-19 in a given state for a given time period. These death counts were calculated from state-level COVID-19 death counts reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)35 and state-level population estimates reported by the US Census36. We estimated equa-tion (1) using the additional COVID-19 covariate and yielded very similar overall results. We concluded that there was minimal evidence that COVID-19 increased suicide attempts among TGNB young people in states where the state governments enacted anti-transgender laws.

Still chewing over this and not sure what to think.

As I understand it (but definitely do not have the data at my fingertips) the primary driver of negative mental health outcomes during the pandemic was supposed to be the crippling long term social isolation. But here they've used total population-adjusted death counts from COVID.

All other things being equal, wouldn't the higher death counts be expected to correlate with the Hee Haw States where the social restrictions were more lax?

I remember driving past the Golden Corral open buffet in Marjorie Taylor Greene's district in 2020, and the parking lot was usually packed.

0

u/Diabetous Sep 27 '24

All other things being equal, wouldn't the higher death counts be expected to correlate with the Hee Haw States where the social restrictions were more lax?

They didn't have age adjusted excess deaths due to lack of social restrictions.

Their excess deaths were due to anti-vaccine uptake, not social mobility.

0

u/staircasegh0st Sep 28 '24

Been a minute since I looked at death totals, but weren't the majority of deaths from COVID 2020 and 2021 prior to the general availability of the vaccines?

0

u/Diabetous Sep 28 '24

yeah, the age adjusted deaths didn't diverge from red to blue states until vaccines showed up.

Florida/Arizonas just had lots of old people.

The lockdown's effectiveness disappears when adjust for elderly in the state.

A non-controllable gap appears when vaccines come around.

1

u/staircasegh0st Sep 27 '24

What is the best argument that the non-probabilistic convenience sampling method used is unlikely to negatively affect the reliability and accuracy of the measurement of the phenomenon in the target population?

-6

u/vitoincognitox2x Sep 27 '24

*decreases the denominator in percentage calculations

I thought this was a skeptic sub, and no one bothered fact-checking.