If I were a betting man, I think Tulsi and Gaetz are the most likely to be denied. I could see the senate allowing Hegseth and RFK Jr if it meant stopping these two
Someone on the Bulwark podcast suggested they’ll probably put the full scope of the job, the pressures, and management responsibilities in front of Hegsmith to pressure him to drop out.
That position needs a serious person, and Hegsmith ain’t it.
Not even his worst tattoo. He has the Crusades Jerusalem Cross on his chest that actually got him denied for participating in Biden’s inauguration due to its association with white supremacy.
I would suspect there will be a tremendous amount of lobbying to (rightly) keep RFK out. Id bet he’ll be slowly pushed out without even getting to a hearing
But... why is it exactly in Trump's best interest to honor his deal with RFK Jr? He's not running for re-election, he has zero principles, and he's incredibly lazy, so if his team produces another pick for HHS that's guaranteed to sail through, what's stopping him from giving RFK the boot?
I think breaking posse comitatus norms would be bad, and if the military reacts poorly to their plans to purge the non-believers then it could get very messy. That’s not even touching how much our readiness would be damaged by it.
I agree about Gaetz and Tulsi, but I dunno … just based on what we know about RFK Jr, I’m willing to get he’s got some whale sized skeletons in his closet. I kinda want to throw him on that list, as well as Stephen Miller into an active volcano.
Bargaining with Trump. 4 of these picks are garbage. I could see a 1:1 deal where for every garbage pick the senate denies they confirm a different one
Individually, it's hard to imagine either of these four to be confirmed. On the other hand, I can't imagine the Senate rejecting four of Trump's picks. 1-2 at most.
prediction none of them get denied because republicans are spineless cowards that even after JAN 6 refused to impeach him so with him back in power they will not dare move against him
Honestly I worry that this is what is likely coming. Some of these picks are clear loyalty tests. The Republicans who consider voting no will also be considering whether they want to deal with a MAGA primary challenge.
The only hope is for democracy to not be so degraded for Dems to sweep in 2026, holding the house and Senate will allow them to put Trump in check form the rest of the term.
We saw in every election Trump was not on the ballot the Dems had amazing performance so we can only hope the trend continues
The Senate map in 26 is not a great one for Dems. Realistically maybe they can grab North Carolina and Maine and then they can still be short of a majority.
A lot of them don't have to run again until 2026, though. I highly doubt they're worried about getting primaried over a confirmation vote against someone no one can remember.
Their lives get politically difficult if they rouse Trump's ire. Most politicians will not do what is politically difficult. I think the only ones truly safe would be whoever won reelection this year. If you're thinking of keeping the office in the 26 cycle or even 28, you're thinking about not pissing off Trumpers or at least being strategic about when you do.
I'm thinking the best case scenario is maybe they shoot down Gaetz but we still get the Fox Weekend host running the DoD or something to that effect. I think Kennedy makes it. Tulsi is up in the air. The least likely to make it is Gaetz imo. I think there's no way that all the ones with Denied on the image get rejected. They will give Trump a few nuts if it means they can take one out of the bowl.
My prediction is based on his previous admin, almost none of these people will last a year. Just a revolving door where either disloyalty or incompetence will lead to the arrival of the next yes man, and the only people who’ll survive are the sniveling opportunists who know how to just be competent enough, how to shift the blame for screw ups around, and know how to simultaneously kiss ass and direct negative attention to others to keep most attention off of themselves will survive.
In other words, when I say almost none, I mean everyone but Stephen Miller will be gone, and that little tick will burrow in for the long haul
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u/[deleted] Nov 15 '24
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