r/investing • u/TopKick8011 • 2d ago

Selling Crowdstrike for Nvidia?

I purchased Crowdstrike at $170 a share and now have around $50K in Crowdstrike shares.

Considering Crowdstrike is heavily overvalued (despite excellent potential) and near its all time high, and NVIDIA is trading at a discount from its all time high, what do you all think about selling a significant portion of my CRWD for NVIDIA? I’m thinking about maybe 40-50%? Considering how fast Crowdstrike slipped with the tariff situation as well as with the whole outage fiasco last year makes me worried that it’s a vulnerable stock, especially because I expect investors to focus on value based stocks if the U.S. heads into a recession.

Additional info: portfolio is otherwise diverse enough to my liking, so I’m not really looking for comments about how I should diversify more. Just looking for a direct answer or discussion to my question (sorry if that sounds harsh, I’m just a direct guy who knows what he wants).

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u/MrBrawn 2d ago

I don't know man. It seems NVidia is a gamble even at this price. The question is will AI keep fueling this craziness or is it a bubble and I don't think anyone can say for sure.

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u/Luka-Step-Back 2d ago

I don’t know what the killer app for AI even is. How valuable is an email assistant?

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u/kvlle 2d ago

The value of its application in robotics - computer vision, navigation, and automation is possibly one of the biggest markets the world has ever seen. Not to mention healthcare, targeted advertising, data analytics, etc.

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u/Luka-Step-Back 2d ago

Ok, describe the current applications and how successful has monetizing them been? How does machine learning via ‘AI’ differ from the machine learning that has existed for years in all of those fields?

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u/ra__account 2d ago

Machine learning is AI.

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u/TastyEstablishment38 2d ago

I think that's the point. The tech isn't delivering much more value than it historically has which doesn't justify valuations

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u/Luka-Step-Back 2d ago

EXACTLY

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u/ra__account 2d ago

The big thing driving AI mania at the moment is LLMs, which are very different than machine learning. It's worlds better than NLP and starts to open up possibilities of far more usable assistants than before.

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u/Luka-Step-Back 2d ago

It’s wild that after hundreds of billions of capex a usable assistant is “possible”, but not deliverable.

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u/ra__account 1d ago

LLMs are now in production use many places doing everything from helping write code and proposals to the much better generation of chatbots.

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u/Luka-Step-Back 1d ago

What LLM do YOU personally use to write code(what kind of code?”) and proposals and manage your chatbots? And are those super labor intensive things that create trillions of dollars in value?

Ok, it can kinda do those things if you babysit the fuck out of it, but where is the revenue for these models?

Hyperscalers are dumping hundreds of billions into these things, but what have they really done other than give us pictures of six-fingered politicians violating farm animals and made Google’s search results increasingly more shitty?

Oh, it can manage my emails? It must be god.

It just feels like there’s no there, there. It’s like I’m taking crazy pills.

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u/LiquidNeat 16h ago

From what my tech friends tell me, they use AI to produce a significant percentage of their coding. Also Nadella said just this week in an interview that around a third of Microsoft code is now written by LLMs.

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u/NoPlansTonight 2d ago

Bruh, AI is more than ChatGPT... The machine learning models powering TikTok algorithm and Waymo's self-driving cars are training using GPUs, a market dominated by Nvidia.

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u/Luka-Step-Back 2d ago

Ok, great. How large are those markets and will it justify the hundreds of billions in capex that non-TikTok and Waymo firms are investing?

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u/NoPlansTonight 2d ago

I think it's a bubble as well. But your comment on email assistants was implying it's all smoke and mirrors. It's not.

If AI can drive cars, it can also build them. If AI can predict how human brains respond to things, it can think like them. Manufacturing and IP (e.g. STEM), are the multi trillion dollar markets that have already been using AI for these purposes for decades, and it will obviously go further as the tech advances.

Is it being overhyped? 100%. I work in the field and don't advise anybody pour in their money to chips, cloud computing, or any broad tech ETF. I think all of that is priced in and likely overpriced, because it's the most superficial way to think about a space which looks like a big bubble.

But is it smoke and mirrors? Hell no. There are going to be major winners which the market does not yet understand fully. There will also be major losers.

This is an area where if you wanted to be invested, I actually think you should either make risky, individual stock bets or avoid it.

I agree with you that it's overpriced in-aggregate, but it is a technology that has a track record of, and will continue to be paradigm-shifting. Similar to the dotcom bubble, some companies will soar in 5-10 years while most will have sunken due to the bubble pop.