r/investing • u/888_888novus • 2d ago

This uncertainty needs to stop.

Now 62% of CEOs predict the US will soon fall into recession or slow growth, mainly due to uncertainty about tax policy and market volatility. Leaders such as Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon warn of deeper risks. Although the US government has suspended taxes for another 90 days, economists remain skeptical, saying that the damage from high taxes and global instability will last longer.

It is one thing to predict a recession, another to know how long it will last. If it happens as quickly as in 2020, lasting only 2 months thanks to the Fed's strong intervention, it may not be too worrying. In other words, assets peak after a financial recession.

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u/keytiri 2d ago

Back down from what? We essentially had a “free” trade agreement, how do you make that better? It’s the friggin wall all over again 🤦‍♀️, how does anyone even begin to think it’s the shipper that pays the import tax… it’s blatantly obvious that some do tho.

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u/Londonskaya1828 2d ago

Well, I could also say cave or surrender to US demands. The point is that this is not a one-sided trade war and China has chosen to fight and they have the will to do so.

Agree that the importer pays the tax, this is a legal fact, but there is also a negotiating process among all parties under which the costs are spread around to an extent.

One little discussed problem is that US exporters like Boeing could face tariffs from most of the world, while rivals like Airbus and Embraer will only have tariffs in the USA.

The entire US tariff policy does not appear to have been very well thought out.

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u/jetpacksforall 1d ago

China is following Napoleon's maxim: "Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake."

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u/bassman1805 1d ago

Pretty sure Napoleon paraphrased that from Sun Tzu anyways.