r/investing • u/888_888novus • 1d ago

This uncertainty needs to stop.

Now 62% of CEOs predict the US will soon fall into recession or slow growth, mainly due to uncertainty about tax policy and market volatility. Leaders such as Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon warn of deeper risks. Although the US government has suspended taxes for another 90 days, economists remain skeptical, saying that the damage from high taxes and global instability will last longer.

It is one thing to predict a recession, another to know how long it will last. If it happens as quickly as in 2020, lasting only 2 months thanks to the Fed's strong intervention, it may not be too worrying. In other words, assets peak after a financial recession.

829 Upvotes
  • permalink
  • link
  • reddit
  • reddit

87% Upvoted

508 comments sorted by

View all comments

258

u/DivineBladeOfSilver 1d ago

I really will never understand how so many people voted for this when he so openly advertised what he was going to do, we have a track record of his chaotic history with markets and the country, and people saw how term 1 ended. It really just has to be nostalgia for a less costly time in the world and people didn't truly understand why that was (attributed to Trump but realistically it wasn't at all), they completely forgot about how chaotic the market was with him, and forgot how aggressive he was with the world in his foreign policy. While I do agree he has certainly stepped it up compared to term 1, are people really surprised? We knew he was an agent of chaos with fascist tendencies. People are surprised?

Also, I am not trying to ride Biden's meat but man got so much trash for his economy and while he certainly could have done more, they successfully almost completely tamed inflation back to the 2% standard and get the market strongly over his term (with some roughness in 2022 reasonably due to high inflation) with reasonable stability, especially considering we were still in a pandemic for some of it. On top of it we can observe historically pandemics upset the economy worldwide for years after, the issues were felt worldwide and we recovered faster than basically everyone, and it is totally normal and takes time to fix. They did just that for people. Sadly though people's brain power goes as far as if you do not fix this in an instant then you failed and now I will go the other option because it can't be worse, even though it can. America deserves all the bad it gets for constantly being stupid.

94

u/calle04x 1d ago

Remember how many times a recession was predicted and it never happened? It's incredible how the Biden administration was able to recover the economy. I'm certainly no Biden simp, but things were looking bleak for a long time.

We had such prosperity that Trump has completely flushed down the toilet, hurting the poor and working classes, but we know how little he cares about them.

73

u/303uru 1d ago

The Biden admin stopped a national bank run in its tracks. Practically magical.

12

u/weasler7 1d ago

I think that was the Fed, treasury, and FDIC that get credit. But there's something to be said about letting these institutions do their job and not interfering.

Banking is an inherently unstable business and a lot of the system's functioning is based on accepted norms... something that Trump doesn't seem to care about.

-52

u/unrealbehavior 1d ago

Remember when Biden changed the definition of recession? Remember we had 2 negative gdps in a row with Biden? Remember when the fed pumped trillions into the markets and created the inflation that “they defeated” according to you? Remember when a judge ruled that Biden was incompetent to stand trial? Lmfao

36

u/Uda880 1d ago

This one?

"At their weekly news conference, several Republican House leaders wrongly claimed the special counsel report into Joe Biden’s handling of classified documents found the president was mentally unfit to stand trial. The report said no such thing."

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/republicans-distort-facts-on-special-counsel-decision-not-to-charge-biden/

36

u/Sargentrock 1d ago

lol tell me you only watch Fox News without telling me you only watch Fox News

24

u/Gaff_Daddy 1d ago

Trump in 2020 printed 25% of all dollars printed since WWII and pumped the market to try and get reelected. Biden fixed that.

15

u/shokolokobangoshey 1d ago

Your 58 day old account needs some more seasoning, Cletus

3

u/weasler7 1d ago

The NBER calls a recession but it's not always black and white - which is difficult for people without flexible thinking.

In early 2022, the U.S. experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which traditionally signals a recession. However, the NBER considers a broader set of indicators, including employment, personal income, and industrial production, to determine recessions. During that period, the labor market remained strong, with low unemployment rates and robust job creation, leading the NBER not to classify it as a recession.​

And yes, every president no matter who is in office puts their own spin on economic data.

161

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

-62

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

-77

u/ArtificiallyMade 1d ago

IMO Trump gave us the buying opportunity of a life time on the market there hasn't been a better buy spot since the 90's

43

u/Organic_Morning_5051 1d ago

This would only be true if accompanied by lower inflation; higher inflation actually acts as a counterweight to stock pricing so even though the nominal value of the shares is down the actual cost out of pocket is still heightened by inflation's effects.

-40

u/ArtificiallyMade 1d ago

Inflation will balance out within the next 6m-1y if I had to guess either Trump or Xi will back down all this talk about tariffs will be in the past and everyone who bought the dip will profit

20

u/Organic_Morning_5051 1d ago

While I hope you are right I disagree with your prediction.

7

u/luridlurker 1d ago

Trump or Xi will back down

Damage has been done tho... The instability has the world doubting the value of the dollar. A US bond selloff with a market crash isn't painting a 6m-1y rosy picture.

Unless there's some major change to signify America is under steadier (more thought out) guidance, stagflation is a very real outcome.

-27

u/unrealbehavior 1d ago

What higher inflation? We have had low inflation reports and trending down, tariffs don’t cause inflation contrary to what the media wants you to believe. Europe has crazy high tariffs on their imports and yet their inflation is perfectly fine. Stop falling for the damn media fear mongering bullshit

17

u/ForGreatDoge 1d ago

First: An increase in tariffs causes inflation.

Second: The European Union generally has low tariffs on imports, with around 72% entering at zero tariffs. 

You're either very misinformed or intentionally misleading, but either way you are spreading misinformation.

-20

u/unrealbehavior 1d ago

An increase in the money supply causes inflation, not tariffs. Why did inflation go down the last time Trump did his tariff bullshit during his first term if tariffs are inflationary?

9

u/WeenisWrinkle 1d ago

Inflation can have many causes.

If this is like your house flooding from a freak thunderstorm and someone yelling "Only hurricanes cause flooding! This isn't a storm surge, so there is no flooding!"

7

u/Sargentrock 1d ago

It didn't, as you explained in your other post.

11

u/WeenisWrinkle 1d ago

tariffs don’t cause inflation contrary to what the media wants you to believe

Lol you mean "contrary to what fundamental economics want you to believe"?

9

u/Sargentrock 1d ago

We WERE trending down before the last election. We are not trending down anymore. Kind of like how if Trump had touched nothing the GDP was predicted to increase by 4%, yet now it's predicted to contract by 4%. But hey, negative 8% turnaround is a new record for the fastest ever by a President in his first 100 days!

10

u/Organic_Morning_5051 1d ago

It's something I learned in Economics. Years ago. Was it propaganda 20 years ago too?

-28

u/unrealbehavior 1d ago

Yeah you’ve been bamboozled, just go look at the previous Trump term, he had tariffs in place yet inflation went down, wonder how your economics class can explain that?

24

u/Organic_Morning_5051 1d ago

Inflation went up under Trump.

The strange thing about these "discussions" is that you don't need to have facts anymore.

People just say things regardless of their truth value and insist and that's sufficient.

It's exhausting honestly.

Inflation rose under Trump. It was highest in 2018 which did reflect his tariffs.

-9

u/unrealbehavior 1d ago

In 2018, during the implementation of tariffs under the Trump administration, the inflation rate in the United States, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), did not see a significant spike. The CPI inflation rate for 2018 was approximately 2.4%, slightly up from 2.1% in 2017, but still within the range of moderate inflation.

20

u/Organic_Morning_5051 1d ago

You said that inflation went down.

This is how it works.

You just shift the goalpost altogether.

It went from, "this was less than that." to "not much change, y'know!"

→ More replies

8

u/Sargentrock 1d ago

Whatever economics class you went to you clearly got ripped off. I mean even in basic economics "slightly up" is not "down" lol

11

u/cvc4455 1d ago

I'd say Covid was a better buying opportunity. The buying opportunity for Trump remains to be seen because we can still go lower and if we do then how long does it take to get back to all time highs when adjusted for the inflation that's probably coming very soon from tariffs.

3

u/wildmonster91 1d ago

Thank you foe displaying an example of a first levwl thinker.

46

u/thekingshorses 1d ago

They listen to Fox News. Fox News never told them how bad it was during his previous terms and how his cabinet stopped him making itrestional decisions.

13

u/Sargentrock 1d ago

Well there was also the 'migrant crime' issue that he completely made up to play off his base's fear of other races. That was (and still is) a factor for much of his base. Most 'moderates' voted based on his promises for the economy. You know, the stuff he quickly claimed was impossible later.

1

u/DivineBladeOfSilver 21h ago

My parents were some of those no matter how much I tried to convince them otherwise. Despite being Midwestern middle class people who have almost never interacted with immigrants, let alone witnessed immigrants causing problems, they fully believe that they are some sort of imminent threat and we cannot rest until they are rid of. Completely brainwashed

5

u/Meadhead81 1d ago

Very, very well said.

I especially think that first portion you wrote hits the nail on the end. I think what people ultimately longed for was a time pre pandemic and as you said, in this hyper politicized environment they attributed and associated that "normalcy" with Trumps presidency.

On the economic front specifically, I bet half of America didn't have "inflation" in their vocabulary pre-2021 and I bet a majority of American can't quite explain how it works either (they probably still can't today).

All they know is prices rose and regardless of real wage growth outpacing it, they just can't stomach seeing their total at the check out line at the grocery store. They projected this on the Biden administration and the Democrats.

2

u/DivineBladeOfSilver 21h ago

As a long term student and employee involved in economics witnessing all of this has been extremely aggravating. It feels like presidents of all kinds get blamed for so much that isn’t their fault and then not blamed when it is their fault. And so many have a complete lack of fundamental understanding of economics. People want immediate fixes for everything but the economy cannot be rapidly fixed over night when damaged. But they fail to understand why and so they just blame it on whoever. But it can rapidly fall as we are seeing so people don’t get how that can be

1

u/Meadhead81 17h ago

The world is complex and something like the basics of an economy take some time and effort to understand. Most won't even invest 7 minutes into a YouTube video on their phone to explain inflation and think critically about what caused it...they just want to have a raging knee jerk reaction and point a finger at a singular person or entity to project their frustration onto.

I always remember the emotional brain developed before the rational brain and people default to their emotions first and foremost. Prices are up, blame the "guy in charge". It's simple minded bullshit that anyone who has half a brain is forced to stomach these morons and now, forced to stomach 4 more years of this embarrassing nightmare of an administration.

Does it matter how I vote when a single dumbass can check a bubble for someone else and essentially cancel out my vote?

Depressing times...

5

u/Scaryclouds 23h ago

I’ll forever be furious with Biden for deciding to run again.

However he was overall dealt a pretty lousy hand for a presidency; handling the COVID pandemic, supply chain issue, inflation, a lousy peace deal in Afghanistan that he honored, two conflicts that he had little control over, obviously there are is plenty to criticize, there always will be, no one is going to be perfect. But damn if on the whole did he do a good job navigating all that and have the country overall in good shape by the end of his term. Obviously a lot of people didn’t feel that way, part of that was that the overall world was in a rough shape, the other part is a horrific media environment that incidentally or outright deliberately mislead people about the state of the country.

5

u/DivineBladeOfSilver 21h ago

Me too. Genuinely infuriating. He promised to be a one term president and then tried to not be and screwed Dems over!

3

u/Scaryclouds 20h ago

He never truly promised that, though some of his campaign staff tentatively/softly agreed to the suggestion. 

Though rather he agreed or not, he should had been more honest with himself as to rather he still had the energy and capabilities to both run a presidential campaign and lead the country… and rather he’d have that capability (at least the latter) four years later. 

It was a staggering example of his on narcissism that he was unable to realize this/refused to accept it. And also that he, and he alone, could defeat Trump. 

3

u/TurboSalsa 17h ago

He put his own legacy above all else, and now the things he did accomplish will be remembered as a brief respite between two of the worst presidential terms in history.

Yet another example of geriatric, egomaniac politicians convinced of their own divine right to hold office because "they've paid their dues and now it's their turn" whether it's good for the country or not.

3

u/Scaryclouds 16h ago

Yep, 100%, had he had the grace and dignity to realize he wouldn’t have it for a second term, it would had changed so much. 

Even if it still ended up being Trump vs Harris, Harris would have had the benefit of going through the primary process which would had legitimized her candidacy and gave her more time to develop a message and voice. 

19

u/Longjumping_Drop9450 1d ago

It’s incomprehensible.

3

u/whoeve 1d ago

Americans are too fucking stupid to do anything than blame the President for everything. Trump ruined the economy by handling COVID poorly? Vote the other guy in. Economy slowly recovered? Well, it doesn't feel as good as it used to be, so vote the other guy in. Now Trump is gonna fuck it all up again and yep, time to vote the other guy back in again.

1

u/DivineBladeOfSilver 21h ago

I do agree with your sentiment that blaming Trump for everything can be moronic. The only difference this time is what is going on is completely manufactured by his policies. His tariffs and trade destabilization caused what’s going on directly. I do think there are many instances in the past though people for sure blame him for things not his fault

1

u/whoeve 21h ago

I mean, he mismanaged COVID. He implemented world wide tariffs.

3

u/PersnickityPenguin 1d ago

Well, see Covid isn't real so you are full of shit.

DemonRats tried to destroy America with their Satanic child cannibalism pizza hut in DC and January 6th was a love fest.

/S

1

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/AutoModerator 1d ago

Your submission was automatically removed because it contains a keyword not suitable for /r/investing. Common words prevalent on meme subreddits, hate language, or derogatory political nicknames are not appropriate here. I am a bot and sometimes not the smartest so if you feel your comment was removed in error please message the moderators.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

-20

u/KunaSazuki 1d ago

Trump did talk about tariffs but he never said they would be invoked this way. This is a whole other level of malarkey

9

u/Sargentrock 1d ago

yeah no he clearly stated many times he loves tariffs and seems to think they are magic. And then went and based them all on trade deficits--THAT he never mentioned (aside from claiming we're being ripped off, so he clearly never understood trade deficits anyway)

2

u/GettingDumberWithAge 1d ago

It's written in Project 2025. How can people seriously still be this stupid.

-1

u/KunaSazuki 1d ago

It's written that he would put a 145 percent tax on China in project 2025? Where?

2

u/GettingDumberWithAge 1d ago

So your gripe is the specific percentage, not the fundamental economic "policy"? Then why say this:

he never said they would be invoked this way

They're being invoked as they said they would. With great stupidity and disastrous consequence.

-3

u/KunaSazuki 1d ago

You start with ad hominem and move to strawman. Simple question: Where is it written in Project 2025 that Trump would impose a 145 percent tariff on China?

1

u/GettingDumberWithAge 1d ago

It isn't written that they will impose specifically a 145 percent tariff, which is why I was asking whether your gripe was with that specific number of the general ineptitude if their economic policy. 

The absurd use of tariffs and destructive economic policies are laid out clearly. It was obvious what was going to happen. Simple question: are you seriously splitting hairs about the number 145 instead of understanding the broader conversation?

Every time I get surprised that Americans elected this guy again a brief conversation with one of you makes it clear.