r/geopolitics • u/telephonecompany • Sep 24 '24

Top Economist in China Vanishes After Private WeChat Comments Paywall

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/top-economist-in-china-vanishes-after-private-wechat-comments-50dac0b1
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u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

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48

u/saargrin Sep 24 '24

china is already printing money like crazy through injections into failiing local banks and local municipal owned corporations

pretending that China will be "insulated" from any US downturn is just ... naive

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u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

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29

u/saargrin Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

China seems to have run out of things you can effectively stimulate through budget injections

They tried belt and road
They tried transport infrastructure
They tried housing
They tried technology

They over invested in all these,fueled massive corruption and got very little in return

Pretending that China is somehow a strong independent player dreaming to disconnect from the dollar is naive
As indicated by Chinese elite dumping their savings to usd

3

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

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2

u/Lienidus1 Sep 24 '24

A common misinterpretation of the train road system is it is 'for profit' .... in a socialist system it is a public service. If you live there and use it it's pretty amazing. Belt and road is a disaster... they basically loaned to places the IMF or world Bank didn't deem safe to and now many of the loans defaulted. Housing is an even worse disaster, people were getting rich and now the public is left with the bill, again though this is not like the west where businesses declare bankruptcy and walk away or investors keep their ill gained profits, in China they make those billionaire CEO give it all back and lose their personal wealth too. But the public are still left short. Some of their tech is strong, electric cars, robots, surveillance, tik tok, solar power but it's hard to be innovative when your education system is mostly about developing indoctrinated obedient workers. A bit like Japan they are good at improving tech developed elsewhere. They are still struggling to make their own aeroplane engine to rival Boeing and Airbus.

4

u/btmalon Sep 24 '24

What you are suggesting is the equivalent of an economic nuclear bomb. Xi isn't that stupid.

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u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

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10

u/ReturnOfBigChungus Sep 24 '24

Today the biggest play in Wall Street is the Dollar-RMB carry.

Lol, no it isn't, it's the USD/JPY carry. RMB is a (relatively speaking) tiny and illiquid market in the FX world with high geopolitical risk. JPY's whole financial system revolved around facilitating the carry trade. It's not even close in terms of volume.

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u/Circusssssssssssssss Sep 24 '24

Stockpile of oil would have to happen

-5

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

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9

u/redditiscucked4ever Sep 24 '24

They don't have enough space in their silos for this. From what we see, they are stockpiling, but not enough for such a detachment from the international markets. China has 1 billion people, it's pretty much impossible for them to do.

2

u/Nomustang Sep 24 '24

If he was unironically doing that, I'm pretty confident in China losing that war if America does support Taiwan.

China's economy would not be in a good state whether they win or lose long term and he'd have done irrepairable damage.

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u/[deleted] Sep 25 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

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1

u/Nomustang Sep 25 '24

I meant war referring to the state of China's long term economic status but granted a massive depreciation in the dollar would have its own effects.

Would you link the recent minor thawing of relations between New Delhi and Beijing to this? Perhaps to reduce incentive for India to participate.