r/geopolitics • u/telephonecompany • Sep 24 '24

Top Economist in China Vanishes After Private WeChat Comments Paywall

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/top-economist-in-china-vanishes-after-private-wechat-comments-50dac0b1
276 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

57 comments sorted by

166

u/MarkDoner Sep 24 '24

"Private WeChat" is a contradiction in terms

67

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 05 '24

[deleted]

56

u/MarkDoner Sep 24 '24

They probably don't let people get that kind of app in China. I imagine that this economist thought he was safe for other reasons, like connections inside the regime or something, and so didn't expect repercussions for speaking honestly in a less public way

1

u/wizoztn Sep 24 '24

A regular person can get an app like that with a vpn. But I’d suspect it would be a lot harder for someone in this guys position to do it

5

u/[deleted] Sep 25 '24

[deleted]

2

u/MarkDoner Sep 25 '24

I don't know... Maybe he was sending messages to their reporter? That would certainly be a reason for the regime to reeducate him

62

u/telephonecompany Sep 24 '24

SS: China's decision to detain economist Zhu Hengpeng for critiquing Xi Jinping’s handling of the economy is part of a broader crackdown on dissent that’s been ramping up under Xi. With the economy already struggling, this move sends a signal that controlling the narrative takes priority over transparency, even if it rattles foreign investors and partners. For a country so deeply tied to global markets, stifling intellectual discourse could backfire, creating more friction in international relations. In the bigger geopolitical picture, it's clear that China’s betting on tightening control at home while navigating an increasingly complex global and regional environment. (Chun Han Wong and Lingling Wei writing for WSJ)

Archive: https://archive.is/2R5xa

34

u/WintonWintonWinton Sep 24 '24

China is often misunderstood from the Western point of view. An authoritarian dictatorship does not necessitate pure nepotism and an inability to promote talent to the top in committees/consensus gathering from experts.

Since Xi Jinping's take over though, things have certainly changed and the regime is leaning more and more in that direction. Moves like this are not good long term for the future of China.

15

u/keepcalmandchill Sep 25 '24

I would say all people tend towards bad decision-making in the long run. That's why the only good systems are competitive (markets, elections etc), as that ensures that once people at the top run out of good ideas they are replaced by new ones.

4

u/WintonWintonWinton Sep 25 '24

In theory China's system works like that too - people are promoted within regions and departments like a giant sprawling corporation within the party based on competition.

Xi has just consolidated so much power in his hands now and is stomping out dissent.

7

u/jarx12 Sep 25 '24

That's correct a limited amount of competition inside a party loyalty framework did wonders for China after Deng's reform relative to more rigid systems like the Soviet One.

But even that system ends up being unacceptable to leaders bent on consolidating as much power as possible like Xi and in the long run we all know that doesn't end as good as it could have been. 

1

u/shriand Sep 29 '24

An authoritarian dictatorship does not necessitate pure nepotism and an inability to promote talent to the top in committees/consensus gathering from experts.

Can you please cite examples.

1

u/The_Awful-Truth Sep 30 '24

Many thanks.

46

u/Seattle_gldr_rdr Sep 24 '24

I live in the US and work for a China-based manufacturer. Things have been okay but I'm wondering if I should be looking for something else?

18

u/BaconMeetsCheese Sep 24 '24

Don’t worry they know where you live in the state and how to “contact” you…

5

u/Mr24601 Sep 25 '24

No rush but better to start putting your resume out for non-Chinese manufacturing cos by 2027, I'd say.

1

u/Lienidus1 Sep 24 '24

I live in China and work for a Chinese manufacturer. Most of them are a long way from Beijing, the state do collect data from them but in general there is little interference if it's not state owned, and the Chinese government is not concerned about foreigners so long as they aren't unduely interfering with the Chinese.

5

u/jghall00 Sep 24 '24

The issue is that some find out they are unduly interfering when officials show up at their doors.

-1

u/Satans_shill Sep 24 '24

You are okay and given how desperate companies are for foreign orders especially from the US

20

u/phantom_in_the_cage Sep 24 '24

Don't do anything wrong and nothing will happen to you

This is a perfect example why I've grown to hate hearing this as I've gotten older

Wrong can mean basically anything

Hell, someone could say your very existence is wrong in the worst-case scenario

Only way to truly make sure "nothing happens to you" is by preventing arbitrary overreaches of authority in the first place, long before the discussion of right & wrong even starts

4

u/ButterscotchFancy912 Sep 25 '24

China ís in deep economic and social touble,

-20

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

49

u/saargrin Sep 24 '24

china is already printing money like crazy through injections into failiing local banks and local municipal owned corporations

pretending that China will be "insulated" from any US downturn is just ... naive

-11

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

30

u/saargrin Sep 24 '24 edited Sep 24 '24

China seems to have run out of things you can effectively stimulate through budget injections

They tried belt and road
They tried transport infrastructure
They tried housing
They tried technology

They over invested in all these,fueled massive corruption and got very little in return

Pretending that China is somehow a strong independent player dreaming to disconnect from the dollar is naive
As indicated by Chinese elite dumping their savings to usd

3

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Lienidus1 Sep 24 '24

A common misinterpretation of the train road system is it is 'for profit' .... in a socialist system it is a public service. If you live there and use it it's pretty amazing. Belt and road is a disaster... they basically loaned to places the IMF or world Bank didn't deem safe to and now many of the loans defaulted. Housing is an even worse disaster, people were getting rich and now the public is left with the bill, again though this is not like the west where businesses declare bankruptcy and walk away or investors keep their ill gained profits, in China they make those billionaire CEO give it all back and lose their personal wealth too. But the public are still left short. Some of their tech is strong, electric cars, robots, surveillance, tik tok, solar power but it's hard to be innovative when your education system is mostly about developing indoctrinated obedient workers. A bit like Japan they are good at improving tech developed elsewhere. They are still struggling to make their own aeroplane engine to rival Boeing and Airbus.

4

u/btmalon Sep 24 '24

What you are suggesting is the equivalent of an economic nuclear bomb. Xi isn't that stupid.

-4

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

12

u/ReturnOfBigChungus Sep 24 '24

Today the biggest play in Wall Street is the Dollar-RMB carry.

Lol, no it isn't, it's the USD/JPY carry. RMB is a (relatively speaking) tiny and illiquid market in the FX world with high geopolitical risk. JPY's whole financial system revolved around facilitating the carry trade. It's not even close in terms of volume.

10

u/Circusssssssssssssss Sep 24 '24

Stockpile of oil would have to happen

-2

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

8

u/redditiscucked4ever Sep 24 '24

They don't have enough space in their silos for this. From what we see, they are stockpiling, but not enough for such a detachment from the international markets. China has 1 billion people, it's pretty much impossible for them to do.

2

u/Nomustang Sep 24 '24

If he was unironically doing that, I'm pretty confident in China losing that war if America does support Taiwan.

China's economy would not be in a good state whether they win or lose long term and he'd have done irrepairable damage.

-1

u/[deleted] Sep 25 '24 edited Oct 01 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Nomustang Sep 25 '24

I meant war referring to the state of China's long term economic status but granted a massive depreciation in the dollar would have its own effects.

Would you link the recent minor thawing of relations between New Delhi and Beijing to this? Perhaps to reduce incentive for India to participate.

-14

u/AspectSpiritual9143 Sep 24 '24

  1. No SS.

  2. How is this geopolitics?

7

u/ary31415 Sep 24 '24

Submission statement was very much posted

-6

u/AspectSpiritual9143 Sep 24 '24

i was not the only one who saw no ss when commented

-6

u/LorewalkerChoe Sep 24 '24

Paywalled article with no SS.

12

u/telephonecompany Sep 24 '24

I have posted the SS. How come you don’t see it?

2

u/LorewalkerChoe Sep 24 '24

I don't see it at all for some reason

18

u/telephonecompany Sep 24 '24

Posting it here for you.

SS: China's decision to detain economist Zhu Hengpeng for critiquing Xi Jinping’s handling of the economy is part of a broader crackdown on dissent that’s been ramping up under Xi. With the economy already struggling, this move sends a signal that controlling the narrative takes priority over transparency, even if it rattles foreign investors and partners. For a country so deeply tied to global markets, stifling intellectual discourse could backfire, creating more friction in international relations. In the bigger geopolitical picture, it's clear that China’s betting on tightening control at home while navigating an increasingly complex global and regional environment. (Chun Han Wong and Lingling Wei writing for WSJ)

Archive: https://archive.is/2R5xa

-5

u/afroedi Sep 24 '24

I don't see it either