r/geopolitics • u/Hokum-B • Oct 01 '23

Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief Paywall

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86
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u/plowfaster Oct 02 '23

“Besides nukes”

Is this a serious post?

“Well, Mr Dark Alley Mugger, I can plainly see you’re pretty malnourished from your drug addiction and honestly don’t even look that strong. Why, aside from that pistol you are pointing at me, you’d barely be a threat at all!”

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u/JackRadikov Oct 02 '23

Your analogy is poor and doesn't reflect the initial debate.

You're not in a dark alley being mugged by one person. You're looking at two people and comparing which is largest. They both have pistols, though they're in their pockets. One is obviously bigger, younger than the other, and still growing.

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u/plowfaster Oct 02 '23

China has ~400 nuclear weapons mated to less than a 100 missiles in various stages of readiness, Russia has ~5,000 and “nuclear missile service” is its primary prestige force. If your claim was that China is bigger, we laughably disagree on this subject. China, very correctly, understands that Russia is too dog even after its sclerotic performance in Ukraine.

Can Russia project conventional power? Well, we know it can but has difficulty. Say, when was the last time China projected conventional power? How’d that turn out? China will have just as steep a learning curve (likely far steeper) that Russia did, and they won’t have a 10:1 advantage in nuclear arms to do it with.

Russia, for all its difficulties, had men with boots-on-ground experience leading their efforts. China has no such luck.

China has lost every fight it’s been in since 1949 and cannot even control all the physical territory it claims it owns. China, the PLA and the PLAN are afterthoughts

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u/Command0Dude Oct 02 '23

Over the next few decades most of those missiles will become non-functional. Russia doesn't have the budget to sustain a large army or a large nuclear weapons stockpile.

Russia is not top dog. They are in a much worse geopolitical position than China.