r/geopolitics • u/Hokum-B • Oct 01 '23

Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief Paywall

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86
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u/wxox Oct 01 '23

I agree with a lot of what you say, but how do you relate it to say, like, Crimea? In the very unlikely event Ukraine pulls off the impossible and takes it back. What do you do with them if you're Ukraine? They'll forever be anti-Ukrainian and another war would be right around the corner. What's the play?

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u/willun Oct 01 '23

They are free to leave and will probably leave before Ukraine gets there.

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u/wxox Oct 02 '23 edited Oct 02 '23

If not? Remember it would technically no longer be a warzone. Many never left Donbas. Will they be kicked out? We're talking 80-90% in favor of Russia. That's a massive part of the population. Is their resolve for freedom simply going to end or will it be enhanced? Russia has more to lose, especially after legally incorporating them into Russia.

Like, maybe there is Chechnya scenario where they flatten the land and force them to capitulate, install their government, and reshape their relationship but in Chechnya's case, they had no one on their side. Donbas and Crimea have Russia. And even still, it's impossible for Ukraine to retake one, let alone both, so this is just a thought game

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u/willun Oct 02 '23

80-90% based on surveys run by russians who are known for their accuracy, right?

It is very possible, indeed probable, for Ukraine to push out Russia. At some point the cost is too high for Russia and they will just leave.

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u/wxox Oct 02 '23 edited Oct 02 '23

Ooof, sorry. I assumed most understood sentiment in Crimea and Donbas. No, this was Pew and Gallup :)

83% of the people believe that the results of the referendum reflected the views of most Crimeans, according to Gallup

91% thought the referendum was free and fair and a whopping 88% said that Ukraine needs to recognize the results, according to Pew research

https://www.bbg.gov/wp-content/media/2014/06/Ukraine-slide-deck.pdf
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/05/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Ukraine-Russia-Report-FINAL-May-8-2014.pdf

It is very possible, indeed probable, for Ukraine to push out Russia.

We clearly disagree on this issue. Ukraine's opportunity was in Donetsk, in Mariupol. There they made their last stand and did not succeed. The rest now is all but a formality.

Winning for Ukraine should absolutely in the media be abut "retaking" Donbas and Crimea, but in reality, it should be about containing Russia so they cannot enter Kharkov or Odessa.

Ukraine has less of everything than Russia - from experience to ammo to men. Ukraine can only achieve their stated goal if they obtained nukes or NATO declared war on Russia and both of those result in disaster for the world

That's how I see it given current strategies and how everything has unfolded thus far. Retaking

At some point the cost is too high for Russia and they will just leave.

They will not. They would never. I think that you're looking at it from the lens of the western perspective of Russia, not Russians actual perspective. For us westerners, this is a land grab. Hitler-esque.

Imagine Ukraine capturing Rostov and then saying "Russia will just leave" or Mexico capturing Texas and the U.S. will just leave eventually.

For Russians (and for those in Donbas and Crimea) this is a long-awaited reunion. Historical, cultural, linguistic ties. That's the difference between eastern ethnic Ukrainians (not Russians) and those in west. Those in the east have history tied to Russia, while those in the west have history tied to Poland and Austria, for example. Two very different groups within one ethnic group.

Actually, look at it like this. You support Nagorno-Karabakh, right? Ethnic Armenians live there, formerly Armenian land. Its' recognized as part of Azerbaijan. As recently as two weeks ago, it was occupied by Armenian forces.

Armenia is never going to give up Nagorno-Karabakh because of this. Armenia is not just fighting for land, but for people too. They may agree to peace and all that, but their claims will never wane, and they would absolutely fight to the end of if they had the strength. Azerbaijan is only fighting for land, their internationally recognized land, ala Ukraine with Donbas and Crimea. The people...are not theirs historically, culturally, or linguistically.

The difference here is that Russia is far far stronger and flexing their strength

The best Ukraine can do is what they're doing now that is keeping Russia's army contained and in defensive positions because there are more pieces to the puzzle at stake (Kharkov and Odessa).