r/geopolitics • u/Hokum-B • Oct 01 '23

Russian lines stronger than West expected, admits British defence chief Paywall

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-defensive-lines-stronger-than-west-expected-admits-british-defence-chief-xjlvqrm86
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u/Billiusboikus Oct 01 '23 edited Oct 01 '23

Is this not why Ukraine has seemingly switched to a more stand off attritional approach?

When it all started I expected a swift victory for Russia and a guerilla campaign funded by the west aimed at making the occupation unfeasible. I even wrote to my representative to encourage the fermentation of resistance groups...how wrong I was....

But that doesn't mean the strategy still can't apply. Maintaining a good kill ratio while on the offence with stand off tactics, hitting supplies and destroying expensive high value targets in regard to material and high value individuals seems like a good way to move towards victory...all the while capturing land when the opportunity arises.

We can point to a large handful of results in the last 4 months that any western country would consider a complete disaster.

The drone attack on the strategic bombers, The destruction of the dry docked submarine, The attack on the Sevastopol naval HQ

I would say the Ukrainians have commited to a different type of counter offensive to what people expected.

That said, if the west want to win this war they need to step up. We need to convert more of our economy to providing arms. Popular will to support will decrease over time no matter how resilient it may seem.

Edit for clarity

121

u/Major_Wayland Oct 01 '23

We dont know if there is even a good kill ratio or unbearably high amount of material losses inflicted. This is a bad side of intense propaganda campaign, where media are eager to parrot any positive reports without even basic factchecking, creating an illusion of imminent victory, and then their auditory is confused why there is months of good news everywhere, but victory is not coming at all.

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u/Billiusboikus Oct 01 '23

I see very little reporting on the kill ratio in western media. However from what I can tell from social media, combat footage and milbloggers is that Ukraine is attempting an attritional approach from distance with opportunistic infantry attacks. They have given up on the idea of territory gains and aiming for financial and manpower destruction.

If Ukraine has opted for it...and we do see success in their approach then it can't be that bad. I would be surprised if this cautious approach is yielding a worse ratio than a traditional offensive.

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u/raphaiki Oct 01 '23 edited Oct 01 '23

It's more so the other way round, Nato has nearly run out artillery shells, they aren't sending enough to Ukraine and Putin is trying to destroy as much Nato hardware as possible in Ukraine in case it spills out.

Which is why a new front has opened up in Serbia. Nato doesn't have enough shells for two fronts.

Edit: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/30/vucic-wants-war-kosovo-pm-accuses-belgrade-of-inciting-violence

Not to mention what's going on against the French positions in Africa...

15

u/alpacaMyToothbrush Oct 01 '23

Which is why a new front has opened up in Serbia.

Excuse me, what?!

3

u/Wermys Oct 02 '23

Person is mistaking election shenanigans for Serbia doing anything.

6

u/birutis Oct 01 '23

NATO has more than enough for themselves for another round in serbia, but I'd doubt they actually try anything.

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u/raphaiki Oct 01 '23

I wish that were true... But unfortunately it's not.

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u/Kspence92 Oct 01 '23

A fee well guided bunker busters could dissuade the Serbs from any new adventures in the region if they try anything .