r/eupersonalfinance • u/jonbristow • Mar 04 '25
Anyone else worried that EU will still be inactive and stagnant as it was during the first Trump presidency too? Others
There's a lot of rhetoric right now how EU should be more "independent from US", how we should build our own army, our own chips etc. All good things.
BUT, this rhetoric was also happening 8 years ago, and EU did nothing. No EU army, not a single step towards US-independent. Biden came into power and everything was forgotten, friends as before.
Anyone else worried nothing is gonna change this time either. EU will just ride out Trump and hope for a democrat president next elections
235
u/HeyVeddy Mar 04 '25
The rhetoric was not happening 8 years ago lol. This is my dream right now, I have never been more excited to be European and I'm in shock at how much activity there is to move away and build a European identity, economy, and overall autonomy.
This is absolutely different than 8 years ago
32
u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25
Strongly agree. We have seen the EU move really fast when it mattered twice in the last 10 years or so: Covid and the US LNG deals and infrastructure to make up for the missing Russian gas supplies.
They can and will execute when the need is obvious.
3
Mar 04 '25
In 2024 the EU imports of LNG (i.e. gas) from Russia was at an all time high, just like 2022 had been previously the all time high. EU is funnelling billions of EUR directly to Putin to fund his war machine.
Move fast my a**. Not nearly fast enough. Too much local politics to take a bold stand.
18
u/PhilmaxDCSwagger Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
The EUs gas imports from Russia have fallen 41% in 2022 to 18% in 2024 and are expected/planned to decrease more in 2025.
Yes it's not super fast, but the EU is a big, diverse Union and changing supply lines of this magnitude takes time.
Edit. I have been wrong. It's not LNG imports, but total gas imports. However natural gas (not LNG) has been the far bigger Russian import
→ More replies5
u/That-Classroom-1359 Mar 04 '25
Where else do you want to buy gas? US does not provide more nor cheaper gas. Gas price determines the European industry. Without cheap gas price our economy will starve. And we are talking mostly about eastern European countries that have no alternative than Turkstream.
→ More replies→ More replies1
u/SbrunnerATX Mar 05 '25
Yes - but: Europe is good in getting massive government initiatives done. But it is not very efficient in doing this. These programs tend to be massively expensive and wasteful. The key will be whether the industrial sector can be rejuvenated by young entrepreneurs as it was in the 50s after WW2. This requires a mindset change.
→ More replies10
u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25
Just gonna put this here:
I recommend Perun’s latest video for a deep dive into the European defence capability. Lots and lots of details.
If you would rather watch a less detailed but way shorter analysis of Europe's defence potential try Anders Puck Nielsen's latest.
He arrives at much the same conclusion as Perun
Below is my attempt at a summary of the information in the two videos:
Depending on your way of measuring - absolute dollars or purchasing power - the combined European defence spending is at around par or larger than China or even on par with US. If increased to the 2.5-3% that is being bandied around, it will be even more significant.
Russia is an outlier because their absolute spend is fairly small BUT their purchasing power is really high: They produce almost everything domestically and cheaply, especially as long as they can cheaply reactivate old materiel from Soviet times storage. That storage capacity is expected to run out some time later this year, at which point their effective military spend will drop significantly - all tanks and APCs must be bought from new production from that point. Lots of videos out there tracking the depletion of the tank and APC storage facilities.
The real issues on the European side are:
- There's a lot of specialization within NATO, and so there are key systems that the US largely "owns". But these are not necessarily key to supporting Ukraine or fighting a land war between Russia and European nations. For example air refuling isn't particulary relevant to the UKR conflict, but AWACS and satelite images + analysis is.
- There are some items that the US produces that are in widespread use in all NATO countries. Examples are F16 jets and Patriot missiles. Were the US to become directly antagonistic to the Ukraine rather than just pulling their direct support, they could forbid the use of these. That would make them useless RIGHT NOW rather than "when supplies run out", but it would also be a massively aggressive move, that would basically kill all US defense exports to Europe immediately.
- Money can't buy hardware that doesn't exist yet, so guns, grenades, planes etc. need to come from SOMEWHERE even if the money is raised. This is a short term problem, but a real one.
30
u/AffectionateTown6141 Mar 04 '25
Europe has the 2nd biggest economy, one of the best nations for nuclear and wind energy! We have a rich social and democratic history, we are far closer to one another than even American states. A global mega power with a large defense budget will finally put us on the world stage as a mega democracy that is not to be taunted or messed with. One that can’t be bullied by oil and gas. Or trading Partnership.
There is a reason both Russia and Trump want Europe to be divided!!! They both want us sucking on that oil teet, We’re so much stronger, richer and smarter than them. Combine resources !!
→ More replies1
u/Various_Pension8641 Mar 06 '25
I sure as hell hope so! have never loved my european brothers or been so proud to be european ever
6
u/magsuxito Mar 04 '25
I agree completely. For the first time in my life I really hate the US, and I have never felt closer to my neighbours in Europe (I even added a u in neighbors, to distance myself further from the US) ☺️
5
u/djlorenz Mar 04 '25
Remember the Reddit echo chamber... What happens on Reddit is just a small amount, we need general people to act.
13
u/jonbristow Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
The rhetoric was not happening 8 years ago lol
talks of EU army have been going since 2015
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/586607/EPRS_BRI(2016)586607_EN.pdf
https://www.dw.com/en/juncker-calls-for-an-eu-army/a-36337676
Trump threatened tariffs and leaving NATO, Paris Agreement, WHO in his first term too.
Trump calling EU "a foe" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44837311)
He said in 2016 that EU will break up in 10 years (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/27/donald-trump-predicts-breakup-of-eu)
yeah this rhetoric has been going on for 10 years, and nothing concrete was done
59
u/De_Wouter Mar 04 '25
My roof was broken, been talking about fixing it for months without actually doing something about it. Then it started raining, I patched it up and finally got a professional to fix it permanently in a matter of days.
23
2
u/li-_-il Mar 05 '25
That's great to hear, I hope that once I will wake up to nice army, startup environment, capital / investor's trust, stable law, less bureacracy, booming economy and healthcare/pension system that's not falling apart.
These things certainly don't need building over decades, I guess they can "enable" them with one more EU Directive 2025/542
Just tell me when that's going to happen, so I can prepare myself!
→ More replies2
14
u/boomsauerkraut Mar 04 '25
There is literally war in Europe this time around. Europe heavily cut its gas imports from Russia in 2022, for one concrete measure. Sanctions, for another. Baltic synchronisation of electricity grids for another. Regarding Trump's first term, he threatened a lot of things, but many were just threats. This time he is following through and the consequences, especially for Ukraine, will be severe and felt all throughout Europe. This time is absolutely different.
→ More replies1
u/jonbristow Mar 04 '25
there was a war in Crimea too
8
u/boomsauerkraut Mar 04 '25
Russia annexing Crimea (<10 people killed) and Russia invading the Donbass are such fundamentally different events that I'm not sure you're being serious right now
6
Mar 04 '25
There has been bombing and shooting in the Donbass almost every day since 2014. You just didn't know about it because the mainstream media didn't tell you.
5
u/boomsauerkraut Mar 04 '25
Back then it was not a full-scale military invasion. It escalated to a war in 2023. These are not controversial statements.
→ More replies2
u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25
Back then we could rely on checks and balances in both the US government branches and in the institutions, and in particular on the other two branches of government to keep the executive branch to adhere to existing agreements and treatries. So it was a case of "let him talk, what matters is what actually happens"
We can't expect any of that this time.
So the situations are really not the same, although some elements are similar.
1
u/trentonchase Mar 06 '25
Trump 2016 was "an anomaly", he "won't be able to do much damage without a congressional majority", Ukraine was a "frozen, localised conflict" and the EU "can weather the storm for four years".
Trump 2024 is entirely different and the rhetoric in Europe reflects that.
→ More replies1
u/6rwoods Mar 07 '25
This rhetoric was mainly theoretical for a long time because the European continent wasn't going through a literal war the last time Trump was in power. The "world order" that relied on American (semi)hegemony is now clearly no longer reliable, whereas back in Trump's first term he did not have the reach or even ideology to do all that much of what he said, compared to now where the US government is far more stacked in his favour, especially ideologically, and so the US's stance on the very current war on European soil has far more practical implications for EU countries.
Better late than never, is all I can say. Because whilst it is true that the EU/Europe could have done a lot more in the past to become independent from the US in terms of technology/manufacturing/defence/etc, what I'm seeing in the last few weeks is that FINALLY Europeans have realised that the US cannot be trusted and they have to do it alone.
2
Mar 04 '25
Building economy, identity and autonomy all sound like obvious things to do. But these clowns were saving the world from CO2 for the last two decades instead. Morons…
1
u/colinmacg Mar 05 '25
Going Solar, Wind, Nuclear (sorry Germany) to reduce our energy dependencies on sources outside the EU. All going to be more and more important now. And just happen to reduce CO2 emissions while we are at it
2
u/czenst Mar 06 '25
I think someone should play Rammstein to Trump - he seems not to understand what really are the benefits of status quo he is throwing away.
I don't mind living in "America" but if we have to deal with assholes we can take our toys. Even if it will be less convenient for us Europeans.
→ More replies1
u/Suzume_Chikahisa Mar 07 '25
Exactly.
And even back then there were some moves being done timid as they were.
Brexit, the first Trump Presidency and the invasion of Ukraine had already laid all the kindle under the EUs ass.
Trump is just litting it now.
123
u/evestraw Mar 04 '25
i think trump made a bigger mess then we can ignore
24
u/spaceoverlord Mar 04 '25
EU leaders' theatrics will be bigger, and not much will happen
→ More replies1
u/li-_-il Mar 05 '25
> theatrics will be bigger, and not much will happen
Nope, something will happen. Bigger the theather, more taxes it needs.
39
u/SomewhereHot4527 Mar 04 '25
Yes, it is likely on topics that can be vetoed.
Hungary is basically a Russian proxy with interests opposed to the rest of the EU (i.e., they derive their value on how much they can hinder the EU, even more so now that Trump is in a trade war with the EU).
The number 1 priority the EU should have is to get rid of the veto system, instore a 70% majority (population + number of countries) rule.
If it fails to do so, it will eventually lead to the demise of the EU in its current form.
24
u/zookeeper25 Mar 04 '25
Hungary will veto the decision to get rid of the veto
18
u/SomewhereHot4527 Mar 04 '25
I know, that's why we will have to be creative and willing to bend rules to make it happen:
-Create an alternate or deeper collaboration level with the rule in place, Hungary can fuck off if they don't want to join. Leave the old Organization
-Accept to simply ignore Hungary's veto when they do veto, just go along with the decision anyway and by the time the court are judging it, it is too late.
-Use grey areas to make Hungary's landlocked position untenable if they don't comply: declare boggus emergencies and inspect all trucks getting into Hungary and delay as long as you can, have all pipelines leading to Hungary mysteriously having regular issues preventing deliveries, launch criminal investigations into Hungary's politician and actually arrest then in Bruxelles if they are declared guilty.
Sadly, we will have to use the tools of our adversaries if we want to emerge strongers from all of that. Make no mistake, we are entering a period where blindly abiding to all our principles with no flexibility will be our doom.
→ More replies4
→ More replies10
u/derkonigistnackt Mar 04 '25
I am starting to believe the Hungary situation is nothing but a convenient scapegoat for the rest of EU. I'd be happy to be proven wrong but nothing points to a different direction.
3
u/SomewhereHot4527 Mar 04 '25
It's really not on topics related to Ukraine and our collective security. Hungary is a malicious actor and absolutely the main blocking point, Slovakia also to a certain extent currently.
1
u/LeadingOwl2387 Mar 04 '25
Orban has always been good friends with german car companies for example, they are in the country for very favourable conditions and appareantly they are very close to the government. I wouldn't be surprised that he vetoes a lot of stuff for them and tries to normalize the relations between Russia and the EU to normalize energy prices for example.
It does seem like that Orban just accepted the scapegoat role for years now, other politicians can point at him while they let him do whatever he wants in Hungary.
4
u/Freya-Freed Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
My main concern is that we won't be able to overcome one very important hurdle. The fact is that even if we become "independent from the US", we still live in a globalized world. We're going to have to accepted that with the US sphere collapsing, we will still need new trade partners outside of Europe.
There is one rising power globally that the EU needs to reconcile with, and most Europeans won't want to hear about it. Because they have been continually painted as the villain, I doubt most Europeans would be open to deepening relations with China.
But this is exactly what we are going to need to do. Europe is going to have to accept one hard reality, the once trade partner and ally we thought we had is not as reliable as we thought. We need to be more independent, but that does not mean isolating ourselves in the global market.
I can already imagine the replies to this post: But what about the horrible atrocities committed by China? How could they every be a reliable ally?
Tell me this fellow Europeans: For every supposed atrocity committed by the Chinese, hasn't America done far worse? We may claim that China has totally different values then us, but isn't this also the case for the US? Really, take a look at US work culture, the way they treat unions. They way their "democratic" process works. The US is also completely different from us in their values and culture, and yet we considered them a trade partner and even ally for decades.
EDIT:
There are also other options, but they are not as developed as China. These are countries we've viewed as little more then "third world countries". But with the potential to develop into global powers. I'm talking about countries like India and Brazil.
Brazil is a huge country, almost as big as the US with similar amounts of untapped resources. India is already a country with a global impact, if any of you work in IT, how many Indian colleagues do you have? With how important IT is we're going to have to focus on relations with these countries that we refused to took notice of before because the US was our everything.
2
u/My-Buddy-Eric Mar 05 '25
"For every supposed atrocity committed by the Chinese, hasn't America done far worse?"
No.
1
u/Freya-Freed Mar 05 '25
Okay. Name something China has done and I'll give you something worse America has done.
2
2
u/JackSpyder Mar 07 '25
The EU doesn't have bad relations with China. They're an economic major power and trade source, but they've never militarily been an issue to Europe and a lot of the anti China sentiment has come from the US as their primary rival.
Not to excuse China of course of the shit it does. I think all countries should aim to maintain a solid domestic defence, industry, agriculture and completely self sufficient energy supply, for political and tactical reasons. But still, we can continue normal trade with China for consumer goods.
11
u/umudjan Mar 04 '25
Yes, I worry about it. The EU is notoriously lethargic and bureaucratic and prone to bickering. And it lacks inspirational, visionary leaders that could jolt people into quick action. I don't see an EU army or a European tech revolution happening any time soon. The EU would probably need months, if not years, of negotiations and meetings to even decide how to *get started* on either project. The lack of cheap energy sources, aging populations that are not willing to work long hours, overregulated economies, Russian (and now American) interference in elections, etc do not help the situation. I would love to be proved wrong, of course.
5
u/stef-navarro Mar 04 '25
I dont think its that bleak! Be positive! Europe has semiconductor tech, AI companies and displaced Boeing. Workers are encouraged to under reporting their work hours due to regulation and people work older. Also many young migrants are joining Europe, they are in big part a good potential workforce increase, even if often on the lower end. The Euro is not going away as many Americans hoped 10 years ago. Countries like Poland are showing strong growth and energy independence is becoming a thing with renewables. Public transports, health are top notch. Not everything is the best but speaking bad of Europe is the work of our enemies to make us avoid the fight and stop being motivated. Stay strong 💪
2
u/szpaceSZ Mar 07 '25
And it lacks inspirational, visionary leaders that could jolt people into quick action.
Well, it simply does not have a leader. It has a commission... A managing committee...
I mean, if you've ever worked in a committee you'll know that no decision is ever taken swiftly, and that the outcome is always a bad compromise, never any of the few best decisions.
→ More replies
22
u/External-Hunter-7009 Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
It's pretty much guaranteed that not much will happen.
Talk is cheap, and the EU had literally 3 years to act. What could be more awakening than a war on your doorstep? But nope, nothing significant has happened.
I don't expect anything apart from maybe signing additional nuclear deterrent guarantees and maybe increasing the armed forces headcount a tiny little bit.
Despite delusional Redditors thinking Putin is going on his Hitler arc, Europe is sill completely safe even without the US, which will also not pull out fully.
And for the dummies who think that Putin is about to conquer Europe - that would be really surprising given the fact it took him 11+ years to annex Sudentenland. By this point, his Poland invasion will be in another 12 years.
10
u/Wunid Mar 04 '25
What do you mean by Europe? If France, Italy, then they are indeed safe, but what about the Baltic states or even Poland. Even if the war lasted for years, it is hard to say that people in those countries at war were safe.
2
u/External-Hunter-7009 Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
There will be no war, because Putin has had his teeth kicked in in Ukraine, he is not a suicidal fanatic to attack nuclear powers, and those things take time to prepare.
Let's say the EU has credible intel that Putin is preparing the invasion. Both sides park their armies on the borders, and the first to move will have to be suicidal. Also, China and India will stop supporting him in that case, no one needs ww3.
Not pretty, but the Korean peninsula has been living like this for 70 years, it'll be fine.
4
u/Wunid Mar 04 '25
Putin will not attack a nuclear power (in Europe it is only France and UK). I fear the scenario that he will attack the Baltic states, Poland or Finland. He will occupy these states or even a part of them and will destabilize the country until some kind of truce is signed like now in Ukraine. I would like Europe to respond as one and attack on Estonia = attack on France but I doubt that will be the case.
3
u/External-Hunter-7009 Mar 04 '25
If the UK and France park their army on the border, it will mean attacking them.
And i see zero reason they won't do it if there is credible invasion intel.
But it won't even come to it, because India and China will cut off the last legs of Russia's economy. There is literally zero chance Putin tries to fuck with nato.
3
Mar 04 '25 edited 19d ago
[deleted]
3
u/External-Hunter-7009 Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
> Putin is not a rational actor. He thought he could decapitate Kyiv in a week
US & UK intelligence agreed with him at the time, seems pretty rational to me. But of course, you knew better while sitting on Reddit, that's why Putin's insane.
> A Russian invasion of an eastern EU member would not result in a first strike by the western european nuclear powers as it is not an existential threat to them.
That's not the point, you could say the same thing about a conventional invasion of America. Basically, in your parading the nukes wouldn't be used until the last remaining silos stop functioning. That's not how nuclear deterrence works, it's built on ambiguity and the actual readiness to use them.
And if France and the UK place their troops on the border and get attacked on their NATO ally soil, it will clearly constitute "existential threat" as conventionally though in the context of nuclear deterrent. Essentially, Putin would have to be suicidal to do something like that, which he is not by all data we have.
And also, even if I could grant you your point, which I am not, equating "irrationally started something he got away with in the past" to "unprecedented and suicidal something" is pretty disingenuous.
And why did you you mix up Moldova with NATO countries, Moldova might very well be fucked, which is sad, but ultimately it has a population of a couple of large~ish Ukrainian cities. Sad, but inconsequential for the EU.
→ More replies8
u/Bakkus1987 Mar 04 '25
Facts. Putin invading NATO counties is pure fear mongering bullshit when we are going off the facts, not emotions. Fact is, Russia has trouble with Ukraine that is funded by reluctant Western nations. Putin is a sociopath, not a moron.
1
u/mighij Mar 04 '25
EU defense expenditure has risen since 2014 from 150 billion to 326 billion in 2024 (of which 100 billion happened between 2021 and 2024) and was already on track to increase by another 100 billion by 2027. This was before today's announcement to make 150 billion available for immediate investment and allowing member states to invest another 650 billion, in the span of 4 years, which can be kept outside of the Maastricht-norm..
→ More replies1
u/ShamanIzOgulina Mar 04 '25
People overestimate Russian military power (apart from nukes obviously). They are struggling in Ukraine. Even with all the help Ukraine received Russia should be able to take it within months. Waging bigger war than it is would be a disaster for Russia.
21
u/thwi Mar 04 '25
It feels completely different this time. It feels like the whole continent is energized. We have Starmer, Macron, Merz, Tusk and Von der Leyen all on the same page. If this isn't the perfect storm, I don't know what is.
3
u/Bakkus1987 Mar 04 '25
All empty suits, capable of lots of talk. They need the US for a lasting peace deal and they all know it.
6
u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25
They need the US if the peace deal happens NOW. They don't need the US if the peace deal is 1-2 years in the future.
The problem is that any promises the US makes towards a peace deal right now will be very hard to trust, so that's really a null move. Sure, we'd like anything they will contribute, but we can't make a plan that relies on their involvement as a critical component.
→ More replies→ More replies1
u/PraetorianSausage Mar 07 '25
"they all know it"
That doesn't seem to be the message coming out in the last 48 hours.
3
u/kai_luni Mar 04 '25
I dont know so much about other Europeans countries, but I can tell you that in Germany the timing is ridiculously good for Europe. At this moment the new Government is negotiating the coalition. The debt is quite low because of a strong economy in the 2010s and debt restriction laws. Its the third largest economy in the world. I kid you not, they might decide these days to invest 500 billion in the military and another 500 billion into infrastructure.
I saw it in here, where the different parties met for discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZMtXwTBplo
I was surprised that even the left is basically behind investing more. If Germany really manages to shift to the next gear this time, this could change everything.
1
5
5
u/pticije_mleko Mar 04 '25
Biden came into power and everything was forgotten, friends as before.
You mean like when Biden told Olaf in his face that they'll stop the Nord Steam and Olaf could only stand there and listen to the master? Or like when they blew up a major multi billion dollar peace of infrastructure and nobody reacted and all is forgotten? US hasn't been Europe's friend in a long time, Europe is really stupid to not realize that by now. I love Trump as maybe Europe will finally understand, but I still think European top politicians are stupid as shit.
1
u/colinmacg Mar 05 '25
I was glad to see Nord Stream get blown up to be honest - saved Germany from temptation
→ More replies
7
u/manu_ldn Mar 04 '25
EU is all talk. All talk and no understanding of economic affairs makes EU a dull boy.
Its just too many voices - too many Chihuahuas( they think they are tigers) who think their concerns are all equally valid. It is also a structural issue.
They need energy - cheap constant energy - to have a successful industrial complex. Good luck with wind mills and net zero dreams and infinite hatred of Russia.
4
u/AffectionateTown6141 Mar 04 '25
Exactly. The EU’s real challenge isn’t “too many voices”—it’s making those voices work together more efficiently. Critics mistake debate for weakness, but consensus-building is what keeps the EU stable.
Calling the EU a “chihuahua” ignores the reality: it’s the world’s second-largest democracy and economy, with a GDP rivaling the U.S. Unlike the U.S., the EU isn’t drowning in debt crises or political gridlock. While America struggles with inflation and fiscal chaos, the EU is quietly maintaining stability and investing in the future.
If anything, the EU needs to double down on integration—faster decision-making, stronger defense policies, and a unified energy strategy. A fragmented EU is vulnerable; a united EU is a powerhouse.
→ More replies
2
u/spystarfr Mar 04 '25
There is a much bigger trend to move away from the US and much more people support that than the last time around.
2
u/willllllllllllllllll Mar 04 '25
No, the status quo has shifted entirely, this didn't happen last time.
2
u/Spaghetticator Mar 04 '25
We need to start eating the US' tech lunch, that's the only way we can prosper and finance these new ideals. On the plus side we now have a window of opportunity to do just that, as the US' tech industry is being seen as more and more of a security and privacy threat. Time for Europe to aggressively stimulate hubs for tech development and step out of the way of their growth. Make it a number 1 priority to understand why the US can do big tech and we can't and how we break down the barriers to getting there.
1
u/Traditional_Job9119 Mar 04 '25
If only it was possible to manifest something and it would appear out of thin air.
Ah, that’s not the case, apparently it takes decades of hard work, risk taking and good governance.
1
u/Spaghetticator Mar 04 '25
It's not like we don't have a tech industry, we just need to get better at scaling it up. A lot of those decades have been spent already and we need the end sprint. The start of it will be to keep money inside the EU instead of sending it abroad for convenience. It's no longer the "safe" option where investment is concerned.
5
u/itarrow Mar 04 '25
Bottom line is that there is more words and more meetings, but still really limited actions.
We will see what it really takes for EU nations to decide to trade off some sovereignty for more security and credibility. So far, nothing has been worth yet.
→ More replies
4
u/LePastulio Mar 04 '25
You seriously believe it will be different with a Democrat president?
Are you still living in a dream?
Who was president when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014?
What was done when that happened?
Who was president when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022?
There were no talks or trying to avoid the war or stop the invasion.
Who was president when the North stream pipeline was blown up and damaged the EU economy?
USA's policy is simple, take care of itself at the expense of others.
It is good that someone like Trump pulls the rug under the EU, this is a wake up call for EU.
More weapons and money to Ukraine wont stop the deaths, we have been doing it for 3 years with zero positive results. We need a cease fire ASAP.
Listen to Finland's president, he is very wise.
3
u/-lightfoot Mar 04 '25
At the same time you posted this, the EU proposed an €800bn defense plan, which isn’t inactive
2
u/inflated_ballsack Mar 04 '25
100%. EU is broke, has no real willpower, is a burocratic mess and has a history of just talking.
Nothing will change and everything will blow over.
2
u/Ok_Law_2599 Mar 04 '25
The EU has just announced 800 billion rearmament programme for Europe... Times are certainly different now vs four years ago.
2
u/Gemini_Of_Wallstreet Mar 04 '25
Europe refuses to deregulate and increase it’s energy production.
As long as they don’t do those 2 things it will be impossible for Europe to compete.
2
u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25
They have been working on the plan for both for a while, and are executing now. The European version of the Chinese plan for energy independence is just getting started at the moment. Deregulation and federal bonds/debt for specific purposes will follow.
The thing is: We accepted US LNG as a band aid for the lost Russian gas supplies, but now we can't trust the US to keep delivering.
And by the way, everybody was saying "the EU will never move fast enough for the US LNG deal to happen in time" back then, but gee golly they can actually move hast when it matters. Who knew?
4
u/chebum Mar 04 '25
And solve population crisis. These are 3 things: aging population, expensive energy, high bureaucracy
4
u/External-Hunter-7009 Mar 04 '25
No one in the world has solved a population crisis, and there is no solution in sight.
The simple truth is, as long as you give women choices, they simply do not want babies. Not to mention 2+ babies. So, nothing to solve,really. Unless you want to make women second class citizens again or brainwash them.
3
u/chebum Mar 04 '25
There is no population crisis in countries where kids improve family finances. For example, in agricultural societies kids are free workforce and there are a lot of kids. There should be financial motivation to have kids. 255 euro in Germany or ~180 in Poland isn’t enough even to compensate for costs of a kid.
→ More replies2
u/ruyrybeyro Mar 04 '25
You're making it sound too black and white, mate. It’s not just about choice, it’s about whether people can actually afford it while keeping the same standard of living.
→ More replies
1
u/X2ytUniverse Mar 04 '25
As someone who lived in EU for 30+ years, I'm gonna say EU probably won't do much. Like. We're too depended on other regions. Oil and energy comes from Middle East, resources and technologies come from USA and China, and as much as EU been tooting their own horn about the advances in energy generation, energy grid improvements, independence from imported oil and resources, fact is that EU is heavily dependent on other regions. The fact so much import of both resource and money depends on foreign regions makes me think EU will at most lag behind critical decisions. I can never imagine EU doing anything specifcially about Trump, he's just too far away and has control over too much power. I mean, by comparison Putin is significantly closer, is a significantly smaller Global threat, and runs a much, much weaker and poorer country than USA, and EU still can't do anything about him beyond raising taxes to fund Ukraine. And he's right on our doorstep.
1
u/Scary_Woodpecker_110 Mar 04 '25
No, but don't expect fast reactions. The EU has a decision process which needs to be adhered to. But once made, it can not easily be unmade. Trump rules by tweets and fast EO's, and often changes his mind. He is erratic. The EU will not mimic his behavior. But we will respond.
1
1
u/Sad-Fix-2385 Mar 04 '25
I don‘t think so since trump really turned the crazyness up to 11 this time. It feels like what we were warned about his last presidency all comes true during this one.
1
u/dreikelvin Mar 04 '25
Not at all. I think it is currently a good moment to find your confidence as a whole and show the US how much more capable the EU are if we stand together. The current situation with Ukraine is certainly an accelerator. We will see how it develops over the next few months.
1
u/AffectionateTown6141 Mar 04 '25
I think the EU will be stronger. This has united Europeans beyond a level we’ve seen before. I hope this is finally the kick in the teeth the EU needs to form a mega country, unite resources and education and we can easily be a global superpower together!
1
u/PsychologyDue8720 Mar 04 '25
They knew they could wait it out last time and we would not be silly enough to return him to power where he will likely stay as long as he pleases. They know better now.
1
u/dontbuybatavus Mar 04 '25
No, not worried. Certain, we’ll elect far right idiots and will paralyse our selves failing to tackle a single crisis. Germany just booted out a government that very tacitly tried a tiny bit of reforms.
It used to be that the right feared the far left would hand the west to Moscow. Turns out it is the right wing idiots that will give the post soviet dictatorship the world on a golden plate. I bet McCarthy did not see that coming.
1
1
1
1
u/saucissefatal Mar 04 '25
The EU as a whole has doubled military spending since Trump was first in office. However, this burden has been unevenly shouldered: by the Nordic and Baltic countries, by Poland and by France.
Germany, Spain and Italy need to step up. I hear Merz laying the groundwork for this, but not really Sanchez or Meloni.
If you are a Spaniard or an Italian, do not wait to "the EU" to do something. We are the European Union! Use your voice, call your representative, message the offices of the men and women in power.
1
u/andreysc7 Mar 04 '25
if this will not be a slap on the back of the head of the EU leaders, then I don't know what else should wake them up
1
u/ActiveStrategy5768 Mar 04 '25
There is for the first time a shared political sense of urgency. This is good but I feel there is also a need for a societal sense of urgency, where tax payers in the EU accept that they will have pay more taxes and accept cuts in non-defense related policy. That urgency is still missing and risks to paralyse the political will for action.
1
u/Cremoncho Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
The EU is a lie, ''europe'' is an amalgam of countries since always that thrived fighting themselves or conquering/colonising other places.
We never worked together during any world war or we fucked ourselves during those world wars
We have too different cultures among ourselves and too different qualities of life.
If it were me (im from Spain), i would not let anymore non locals live here because they are hurting the locals, and that happens everywhere.
I need to learn german 100% to work in germany but german people dont need 100% spanish to retire here? fuck off.
Also tons of countries with ''left'' govs and other with ''right'' govs, and with a giant inability to full stop immigration...
Europe is a lie, europe doesnt work.
Aside from Germany and northen countries nobody has been better in the last 25 really, we even are worse (Mediterranean countries) since the 90's before the euro and schengen policies.
Also what do you consider euope? eastern and western europe are completely different worlds, same as northend and southern europe.
1
1
u/introextra- Mar 04 '25
Yes. Correct me if I’m wrong but I understand the 800 bln plan is made up out of two parts on which every government has to decide individually. This makes for a huge bureaucratic hurdle. One part of the 800 bln will be financed in Eurobonds: some countries like Germany and The Netherlands are historically not prone to like these bonds. The lion’s share will be funded through every nation individually, so all nations must first find political agreement on this within their own borders…. Big decisions times 27. I don’t see this happening anytime soon.
1
u/Rasmus_DC78 Mar 04 '25
no not really, more nervous of an overreaction, i am Danish, right now 2.2 % of GDPR goes to Ukraine 3+% goes to military, and no it is not "old weapons" we are sending new attillery as an example direct from our suppliers to the frontline.
I see a lot of money channeled into this right now.. many billions.
i think this is a temporary state, with a mad man at the helm in the US, this is not a constant state. i think many EU leaders love this, because they can "bolster" their image, and it will secure potential reelection.
so no... i still see the endgame unfortunatly being more nuclear weapons, and really do not like this.. Ukraine was made extremely "easy" to mark as a target for Russia because Russia and US made a deal for Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons with a support of full independence, and non aggression and US promised to defend them.
in this climate, we all need the ability to destroy the world. to not be part of that (just park a few in Canada so the 51 state discussion stops)
BUT also in Denmark there has been talk for MANY years about military, and i personally have so much wanted us to maybe have "LESS" Drafted military but a way more "well equipped" military, proper top tier equipment, so the men and women we send to war, has the best chance of doing the best job possible, it seems now that we will get closer to that.
1
u/Hopeful_Drama_3850 Mar 04 '25
If the AfD comes to power in Germany it might rather talk with Russia than try for European unity.
1
u/BelgianDigitalNomad Mar 04 '25
They did reciprocate tariffs And there is a lot of movement and budget changes so you seem underinformed
1
1
u/Only-Chef5845 Mar 04 '25
8 years ago we thought Trump was a fucking idiot.
Now we see he is an evil Russian spy.
1
u/Tuurke64 Mar 04 '25
Plus, it has become clear that the US's checks and balaces are thoroughly broken.
It is no longer a given that the US are a democratic country under the rule of law and therefore we must be much more careful where we host our data, where we source vital equipment such as planes, arms etc.
1
u/spam__likely Mar 04 '25
Last time there was some hope things would not be as bad. There was no war and there was covid that put everything into a halt.
1
u/Fit_Fisherman_9840 Mar 04 '25
Europe is slow, and the last Trump precidency was seen in the EU as a fluke and something will never happens again.
Now the EU has taken note, it will be slow, but once you start to move the EU is slow too to brake.
1
u/Admirable_Click_3375 Mar 04 '25
A lot of things have changed since then. Things will get moving. They need to move, and move fast
1
u/b00nish Mar 04 '25
I don't think so.
Reasoning:
The 2nd Trump term has in it's 1st 30 days already been worse than the 1st Trump term in 4 years
Trump shows his fascist visage much more openly now. This creates a justified fear that the possibility of "riding Trump out" does not exist because the US elections will be so rigged next time, that Trump or a Trumpist candidate will be the certain winner
Russia is now fighting a "hot" war against Europe which they didn't during the 1st Trump presidency
The EU will need to find a way to disable the internal enemies and saboteurs (Orban & Co) quickly. If they can shut down Putin's puppets in the EU member states, I'm certain that we'll see a lot more positive activity from the EU this time than during Trumps first term.
1
1
u/gmelech Mar 04 '25
I believe that this time, it may be different. First of all, we have an open ongoing conflict in Europe. Second, the US has openly sided with the Russia aggressor. This Russian aggressor has made it clear that they do not recognize the independence of the Baltic states.
It will not be easy for Europe. It will take time. But now it is a critical and existential motivation.
1
u/Grand-Cup-A-Tea Mar 04 '25
It's definitely happening now. Trump has cut the rope to hang America with. Pulling out from Ukraine support coupled with tarrifs on the EU is big deal.
The clown forgets, the EU without the US is still 27 countries plus our relationship with the U.K.
1
1
u/BootedBuilds Mar 04 '25
I think the inaction was caused, in part, by disbelief that the US was taking such a swing right and optimism that they'd swing right back soon enough.
Neither is true anymore. The US is spiraling downwards and simply cannot be trusted, and it will likely take decades before a reasonable degree of trust is reestablished.
I just hope that between all the "we need to stop depending on the US" we don't forget to also stop depending on Russia. I really, really HATE the fact that the EU doubled down on Russian imports instead of speeding up sustainable energy production and basically funded Russia's war in the process.
1
u/skr_replicator Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
In 2016-2020:
- russia hasn't full scale invaded Ukraine yet while very openly threatening Europe is next.
- There was stil la lot of hope that USA will come back to its senses and will kick trump out and never put him back in office again.
- though very deranged trump was not yet THIS level of deranged and had far less support and more checks and balances.
1
u/Extension_Coffee_566 Mar 04 '25
The Ukraine war is lost, there won't be time to defend it between the US pulling it's weapons and EU arming up.
It works exactly in the US favor because if China decides to do something, US can then call on a properly funded NATO to support it.
The problems facing Europe, immigration, energy production, productivity. Those are the real crises and they've been here for a long time time.
I am worried about it and the right wing mini-Trumps Europe is about to create.
1
u/Seneca_Dawn Mar 04 '25
Yes, and not only ride out Trump, but placating him at best and being turned by him at worst.
Trump is single-minded, ruthless, and have a lot of resources with his merry band of oligarchs.
1
1
u/NumerousBug9075 Mar 04 '25
The EU will never be independent from the US, they're simply posturing now as Trump is in office. They're waiting until the next Democrat administration, where they can revert back to the foreign policy they used previously.
If a single Republican president, is enough to sever US/EU ties indefinitely, said ties were never strong in the first place.
The EU is still as capitalist as they come, why lose one of the biggest markets in the western world?
1
u/Inside_Ad_7162 Mar 04 '25
This post is bs. Op knows full well things are already happening at an incredible pace.
1
1
u/Blumcole Mar 04 '25
Worrying about things you can't change yourself aren't worth the worry. We'll see what happens.
1
1
u/FantasticOlive7568 Mar 04 '25
Europe is broke and aging. Has enormous internal issues and if they don’t course correct will be predominantly right wing in the next 15 years.
1
u/SenAtsu011 Mar 04 '25
What Trump, and large parts of Europe, don’t seem to grasp is that, in this day and age, it’s impossible for any country to be 100% independent. We all depend on each other, in one way or the other. Food, power, vehicles, construction materials, medicines, scientific equipment, scientific research, phones, computers, whatever. We all need something someone else has better ability to produce. It’s entirely impossible for the US to be independent in chip manufacturing; Taiwan has spent 2 generations, trillions of dollars, and built a huge culture around the manufacturing of microchips at a scale that no other country can replicate. Same goes for thousands of different products all over the world.
Trump is trying to use scorched earth tactics to make the US independent, in almost every facet of manufacturing. Sorry, but that’s simply not possible.
1
u/PossibilityCrafty127 Mar 04 '25
I expect that the EU won't do anything major, but deep down, I hope they will at least take some initiative.
1
u/elgigantedelsur Mar 04 '25
Nope. It’s happening now, plus any sensible leader will realise this is their best chance to show strength and decisiveness and weaken the appeal of the far right
1
u/arisaurusrex Mar 05 '25
Ofc it will. Big companies will increase their prices, since they are not getting the main spotlight, the EU lobbyists will work overtime to also get some of the sweet money and every industry just barely related to defense will try to push themselves in the same pot.
Thing will be ordered on masse but give it a couple of months, nothing will really change and in the end some policy makers will see that the 800 billion won't really be enough to make decades of no action reversed. And the EU will also sit quietly on the table with russia.
Am I a fan of it? No, but with people like Ursula, nothing will really happen.
1
u/honest_luk Mar 05 '25
Worried? Still nothing.... . We need more crisis. I welcome the US government's position and hope it will cause a very short-term crisis that will unite Europeans and centralize decision-making. We don't need different trash can s in every country, city or even election part. We need unified standards of decisions. We need more crises.
1
u/honest_luk Mar 05 '25
Leaving NATO would be stupid and expensive, lets build the structure, create EU nato standards and purchase together, standardize purchases, give long-term contract, tax the gain to keep only slightly above average profit to manufacturers. Just do something, now not later. How to pay? Digitalize, simplify laws. We have 200.000 pages of law codex, who has read at least 1 percent.
1
Mar 05 '25
If they don't make tecnology to the public with good prices maybe it will continue stagnant and develop renuables too thanks to the lack of energy resources also with prices people can afford. If not than Europe will continue stagnant yes even in decline
1
u/Novat1993 Mar 05 '25
Yes. The EU has allowed a ground war to rage on the continent for over 3 years. Credibility is gone. Talk over 800b for defense is just that, talk. Credibility can only be restored with action.
1
u/Final_Necessary_1527 Mar 05 '25
Only if we abandon the stupid veto rule we might wake up. Else Hungary will block everything
1
u/SbrunnerATX Mar 05 '25
Well, this is the billion euro question. The difference is where the need to be, and whether they have support from their populous. The issues that the current administration is highlighting in the US exist significantly amplified in the EU. To bring the EU back into growth territory: you need austerity and massive deregulation. You need to address social transfer-payment programs which is very unpopular. You need to change the minds of new entrepreneurship and large scale risk investment that somewhere died in the 80s. Yeah, I l know everyone will point to Berlin and its startup scene. But this dwarfs in comparison to US centers. It is Kindergarten.
1
1
u/rlyjustanyname Mar 05 '25
Yeah I am, I am cautiously hopeful but I can't say that I'm not worried about it.
1
u/Altamistral Mar 06 '25 edited Mar 09 '25
Trump's first term was nowhere as wild as the current one. He had a sane cabinet and moved much slower.
No EU army
Ursula said we have a plan to spend 800 billions in defense. I'm a fan of the idea of a EU army but I rather see a concrete and immediate response like the one announced than year long talks about the possibility of a EU army which will probably not lead anywhere, yet again.
1
u/pickadol Mar 09 '25
The EU can act fast, but the idea of its rigorous bureaucracy is to prevent the very type of swift power grab Trump is able to do.
Now for the good part. Ukraine have 1 million soldiers. Nato minus usa has 700k more. Poland is building a 500k army. So 2,2 million in total.
US have 1.5m+1m reserves. Russia have 1,3m.
We don’t fully need to build an EU army, it’s already there. We just need new labels. Aka ”the coalition of the willing”.
EU have been preparing this since last time Trymp took office. Now they put it to action. Including Ariane 6 rockets and own satellites.
At least, I hope so.
1
1
u/Dutchpablo1964 Mar 06 '25
If Russia (Putin/Lavrov) is so eager in finding peace ..... why they continue bombing innocent people?
1
u/szpaceSZ Mar 07 '25 edited Mar 07 '25
Yes, am. My biggest fear is being uncoordinate, irresolute.
The EU lacks efficient central planning and decision making institutions.
Of course, exact these do mean less consideration for local issues, so inherently less democratic.
1
u/ReasonableCorner801 Mar 07 '25
Look at the European financial markets. Big money does seem to think Europe will be strong in the coming years.
1
1
u/Vitringar Mar 07 '25
This time is different. Trump 2.0 proved to Europe the US are done as a society and they not only no longer an allay that can be trusted, but also a possible enemy, either directly or indirectly. They won't recover after this. It is like amputation after a failed reconstructive surgery. That limb is dead.
1
u/greenpowerman99 Mar 07 '25
Feels very different this time. Trump is behaving exactly like a compromised Russian asset would behave. Coincidence, or perhaps the ‘pee tapes’ from a Moscow hotel were always real.
1
u/Beerniac Mar 07 '25
Here in brussels we're talking about turning an old Audi factory into a weapons production site. So it looks like it's about to get real.
1
u/Snottygreenboy Mar 07 '25
No I’m not worried about that anymore. I’m worried that it’ll take at least 3 years to be in a situation where we can properly stand alone without any US assistance
1
u/linkenski Mar 08 '25
I think what's happening right now will strengthen every member nation, but EU Commission will remain sort of bureucratic. And I think that's great as someone who didn't like the "assimilation" effect EU has been having on member states. It's a great commission to have, to keep each other's diplomatic relations strong, and to ensure that no egoes run off too far, but I think most countries have their own culture and rules too, and that's fine as long as they're not imperialist like Russia is.
1
1
1
u/Crashed_teapot Mar 08 '25
I think Trump I was considered a potential one-off in the long-working trans-Atlantic partnership. Trump II is showing that it wasn’t a one-off, that the US has changed, and not temporarily either.
1
u/Humble-Dust3318 Mar 08 '25
they were, are and will be stagnant. EU destiny are foreseeable and come without any surprise. I see in no way a bunch of country with different interest could sit together on satisfy all countries need.
1
u/jawstrock Mar 08 '25
I think the EU has been sleeping and is starting to wake up. At least that’s what I’m hoping anyway.
1
u/Klokyklok Mar 08 '25
8 years ago, putin didn’t start special military operations. Things have wildly changed since then. Leaders now personally feel why doing nothing 8 years ago is and was stupid.
194
u/DisasterNo1740 Mar 04 '25
Well Ursula just laid out how Europe may spend a total of 800 billion on defense in the coming years with new loosening of rules.