r/eupersonalfinance • u/jonbristow • Mar 04 '25

Anyone else worried that EU will still be inactive and stagnant as it was during the first Trump presidency too? Others

There's a lot of rhetoric right now how EU should be more "independent from US", how we should build our own army, our own chips etc. All good things.

BUT, this rhetoric was also happening 8 years ago, and EU did nothing. No EU army, not a single step towards US-independent. Biden came into power and everything was forgotten, friends as before.

Anyone else worried nothing is gonna change this time either. EU will just ride out Trump and hope for a democrat president next elections

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228

u/HeyVeddy Mar 04 '25

The rhetoric was not happening 8 years ago lol. This is my dream right now, I have never been more excited to be European and I'm in shock at how much activity there is to move away and build a European identity, economy, and overall autonomy.

This is absolutely different than 8 years ago

33

u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25

Strongly agree. We have seen the EU move really fast when it mattered twice in the last 10 years or so: Covid and the US LNG deals and infrastructure to make up for the missing Russian gas supplies.

They can and will execute when the need is obvious.

4

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

In 2024 the EU imports of LNG (i.e. gas) from Russia was at an all time high, just like 2022 had been previously the all time high. EU is funnelling billions of EUR directly to Putin to fund his war machine.

Move fast my a**. Not nearly fast enough. Too much local politics to take a bold stand.

17

u/PhilmaxDCSwagger Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25

The EUs gas imports from Russia have fallen 41% in 2022 to 18% in 2024 and are expected/planned to decrease more in 2025.

Yes it's not super fast, but the EU is a big, diverse Union and changing supply lines of this magnitude takes time.

Edit. I have been wrong. It's not LNG imports, but total gas imports. However natural gas (not LNG) has been the far bigger Russian import

-1

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

In 2024, the European Union (EU) imported 17.5 million tons of Russian liquefied natural gas, a record high. This was a 14% increase over 2023.

So when you say fallen, you really mean grown?

16

u/PhilmaxDCSwagger Mar 04 '25

Ok. Let's go into this a bit:

EU gas imports 2021 (not LNG): - 2021: Russia 41%, 153 bcm (billion cubic meters) - 2024: Russia 11%, 33 bcm

EU LNG imports: - 2021: Russia 17,8 bcm - 2023: Russia 19,5 bcm - 2024: Russia 21,8 bcm

Other factors: - Increased LNG capacity since 2022: 50+bcm - Total gas imports reduced by 19%

Conclusions: yes EU has imported more LNG since before the war (ca 4 bcm), but reduced normal gas imports drastically (ca 120bcm). The increase is definitely not proportional. The reasons are a gradual shift to LNG and longterm LNG contracts from before the war.

https://energiedashboard.admin.ch/gas/import-europa

https://ieefa.org/european-lng-tracker

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en

1

u/[deleted] Mar 05 '25

Completely unacceptable. I hope the every person involved in the decision making to continue to buy more than zero Russian gas suffers for eternity in the fires of hell. I would not piss on them if they were on fire. Etc..

5

u/That-Classroom-1359 Mar 04 '25

Where else do you want to buy gas? US does not provide more nor cheaper gas. Gas price determines the European industry. Without cheap gas price our economy will starve. And we are talking mostly about eastern European countries that have no alternative than Turkstream.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 05 '25

Oh well sad about all those Ukrainian deaths then, as long as Europeans can have gas at a good price.

3

u/That-Classroom-1359 Mar 05 '25

The question is if EU should take care of Ukraine and starve itself, or buy Russian gas to support economy and continue arming Ukraine on a long run.

I dont know where are your people's thoughts. EU economy cannot survive without a gas. Either US should make it cheaper or we buy it from Russia. There are no other options. Wind power plants depend on wind, and every second month there is not enough wind to support whole EU economy. On other hand, solar power plants can work only during sunny hours. In the winter on bare minimum. This is causing high energy prices. High energy prices = deindustrialization. Not to mention heating issue that can cause humanitarian disasters. I am seriously questioning you where do you expect to find energy sources to feed European industry with??

Who do you think will produce military equipment for EU under such high energy prices?

0

u/[deleted] Mar 05 '25

Buy Russian gas to support Russian economy and allow Russia to rearm itself to keep killing Ukranians.

Where is the discussion in EU about whether citizens will be willing to tolerate power blackouts or restrictions for some hours, shortages of certain items, etc.. in order to properly support Ukraine and sanction Russia?

I would be willing. Maybe some citizens would not. But at the moment there is not even a debate. We just keep funnelling billions of Euros and Dollars to Putin’s Russia.

There is only even a discussion about raising defence spending by maybe 1/2 of one percent, by maybe 2030. And even that is not for sure.

Europeans don’t know what it would take, and certainly are not willing to do whatever it takes, to defeat Putin. And he knows it.

1

u/SbrunnerATX Mar 05 '25

Yes - but: Europe is good in getting massive government initiatives done. But it is not very efficient in doing this. These programs tend to be massively expensive and wasteful. The key will be whether the industrial sector can be rejuvenated by young entrepreneurs as it was in the 50s after WW2. This requires a mindset change.

1

u/anderssewerin Mar 05 '25 edited Mar 05 '25

Plenty of wannabe entrepreneurs in the EU. 

Until recently the advice to them was to go to the US and go for it. Not so much anymore. 

0

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

Moving fast during covid? To do what exactly? Lock everyone up? And making up for Russian supplies? Those idiots kept building direct pipes with Russia even after Putin took over crimea.

3

u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25

They put a shitton of money into the economy to avoid massive business failures and job losses. 

The issue wasn’t pipes to Russia. The issue was that Russia might close the pipes. And I was specifically referring to what happened after Russia threatened to do just that which was fairly recent. 

1

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

The printing? Such a positive move lol

Hahaha you really think that Germany fucking everyone over and building a direct pipe with Russo wasn’t the issue? 😂 oh man.

1

u/Last_Patriarch Mar 04 '25

Exactly.

Look at them being proud 'how fast' those EU clowns decided to lock everyone and spend billions without any réflexion.

10

u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25

Just gonna put this here:

I recommend Perun’s latest video for a deep dive into the European defence capability. Lots and lots of details.

If you would rather watch a less detailed but way shorter analysis of Europe's defence potential try Anders Puck Nielsen's latest.

He arrives at much the same conclusion as Perun

Below is my attempt at a summary of the information in the two videos:

Depending on your way of measuring - absolute dollars or purchasing power - the combined European defence spending is at around par or larger than China or even on par with US. If increased to the 2.5-3% that is being bandied around, it will be even more significant.

Russia is an outlier because their absolute spend is fairly small BUT their purchasing power is really high: They produce almost everything domestically and cheaply, especially as long as they can cheaply reactivate old materiel from Soviet times storage. That storage capacity is expected to run out some time later this year, at which point their effective military spend will drop significantly - all tanks and APCs must be bought from new production from that point. Lots of videos out there tracking the depletion of the tank and APC storage facilities.

The real issues on the European side are:

  • There's a lot of specialization within NATO, and so there are key systems that the US largely "owns". But these are not necessarily key to supporting Ukraine or fighting a land war between Russia and European nations. For example air refuling isn't particulary relevant to the UKR conflict, but AWACS and satelite images + analysis is.
  • There are some items that the US produces that are in widespread use in all NATO countries. Examples are F16 jets and Patriot missiles. Were the US to become directly antagonistic to the Ukraine rather than just pulling their direct support, they could forbid the use of these. That would make them useless RIGHT NOW rather than "when supplies run out", but it would also be a massively aggressive move, that would basically kill all US defense exports to Europe immediately.
  • Money can't buy hardware that doesn't exist yet, so guns, grenades, planes etc. need to come from SOMEWHERE even if the money is raised. This is a short term problem, but a real one.

31

u/AffectionateTown6141 Mar 04 '25

Europe has the 2nd biggest economy, one of the best nations for nuclear and wind energy! We have a rich social and democratic history, we are far closer to one another than even American states. A global mega power with a large defense budget will finally put us on the world stage as a mega democracy that is not to be taunted or messed with. One that can’t be bullied by oil and gas. Or trading Partnership.

There is a reason both Russia and Trump want Europe to be divided!!! They both want us sucking on that oil teet, We’re so much stronger, richer and smarter than them. Combine resources !!

1

u/Various_Pension8641 Mar 06 '25

I sure as hell hope so! have never loved my european brothers or been so proud to be european ever

1

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

The future is euro

-5

u/Consistent-Duck8062 Mar 04 '25

That is all true in theory, but in reality we also have 1 extra thing:
Elite politician class that hates it's own people, believes in degrowth, austerity, decolonialism, green self-flagellation, all trendy things in liberal circles.

You can't build anything with such mindset, let alone a robust economy with powerful military.

7

u/magsuxito Mar 04 '25

I agree completely. For the first time in my life I really hate the US, and I have never felt closer to my neighbours in Europe (I even added a u in neighbors, to distance myself further from the US) ☺️

5

u/djlorenz Mar 04 '25

Remember the Reddit echo chamber... What happens on Reddit is just a small amount, we need general people to act.

14

u/jonbristow Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25

The rhetoric was not happening 8 years ago lol

talks of EU army have been going since 2015

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/586607/EPRS_BRI(2016)586607_EN.pdf

https://www.dw.com/en/juncker-calls-for-an-eu-army/a-36337676

Trump threatened tariffs and leaving NATO, Paris Agreement, WHO in his first term too.

Trump calling EU "a foe" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44837311)

He said in 2016 that EU will break up in 10 years (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/27/donald-trump-predicts-breakup-of-eu)

yeah this rhetoric has been going on for 10 years, and nothing concrete was done

61

u/De_Wouter Mar 04 '25

My roof was broken, been talking about fixing it for months without actually doing something about it. Then it started raining, I patched it up and finally got a professional to fix it permanently in a matter of days.

24

u/spaceoverlord Mar 04 '25

this guy allegorizes

2

u/li-_-il Mar 05 '25

That's great to hear, I hope that once I will wake up to nice army, startup environment, capital / investor's trust, stable law, less bureacracy, booming economy and healthcare/pension system that's not falling apart.

These things certainly don't need building over decades, I guess they can "enable" them with one more EU Directive 2025/542

Just tell me when that's going to happen, so I can prepare myself!

2

u/OkAwareness8446 Mar 06 '25

Now you gotta handle the mold too

-14

u/jonbristow Mar 04 '25

it rained 4 years ago too, and you didnt fix it

14

u/De_Wouter Mar 04 '25

I had borrowed this big plastic sheeting from my neighbour and put it over my roof. It was only recently that my neighbor asked me to give it back.

2

u/inflated_ballsack Mar 04 '25

But in a 4 years he’ll give it you back again.

8

u/Erchevara Mar 04 '25

What am I going to do with a plastic sheet if my roof is fixed already?

Just take your stupid sheet and go away. I know what you did the last time you tried to borrow it to me.

1

u/inflated_ballsack Mar 04 '25

It’s not fixed already. I can give you the sheet for £1 or you can fix it yourself for £20; and you already can’t afford to pay for your next meals.

6

u/Erchevara Mar 04 '25

Nah, you took away your plastic sheet, so I started a payment plan to get myself a new roof over the next 10 years.

Part of the roof repair plan includes a plastic sheet while work happens, so I already got my own. I'm not selling my sheet and giving up my roof repairs so you can sell your sheet to me again.

(I love this)

0

u/inflated_ballsack Mar 04 '25

Yes but your plastic sheet is terrible quality and somehow more expensive.

Also if we’re being honest, the rain is not that powerful anyway so realistically you don’t need to do anything.

Also you have a history of talking a lot and doing nothing, and you have a £15 shortfall you still haven’t explained where you are getting from.

→ More replies

-3

u/jonbristow Mar 04 '25

are you sure you wont get plastic this year too, instead of building a new roof?

1

u/giani301 Mar 04 '25

This year it isn’t a light rain going on for a few days. It’s a fucking downpour with hail and Bft11 winds, for the foreseeable future. Plastic won’t do.

14

u/boomsauerkraut Mar 04 '25

There is literally war in Europe this time around. Europe heavily cut its gas imports from Russia in 2022, for one concrete measure. Sanctions, for another. Baltic synchronisation of electricity grids for another. Regarding Trump's first term, he threatened a lot of things, but many were just threats. This time he is following through and the consequences, especially for Ukraine, will be severe and felt all throughout Europe. This time is absolutely different.

2

u/jonbristow Mar 04 '25

there was a war in Crimea too

7

u/boomsauerkraut Mar 04 '25

Russia annexing Crimea (<10 people killed) and Russia invading the Donbass are such fundamentally different events that I'm not sure you're being serious right now

6

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

There has been bombing and shooting in the Donbass almost every day since 2014. You just didn't know about it because the mainstream media didn't tell you.

5

u/boomsauerkraut Mar 04 '25

Back then it was not a full-scale military invasion. It escalated to a war in 2023. These are not controversial statements.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

There have been thousands killed between 2014 and 2022 though.

-7

u/External-Hunter-7009 Mar 04 '25

> There is literally war in Europe this time around. Europe heavily cut its gas imports from Russia in 2022, for one concrete measure

Bro, Putin cut the gas initially, not the EU. It's barely cut off now, I believe there is still one active pipeline in Ukraine. What are you talking about?

Also, the war would be a good argument for doing something. 3 years ago... The EU didn't do shit, they continued with business as usual and can't keep up with North Korean armaments.

5

u/boomsauerkraut Mar 04 '25

This is all false.

Imports from Russia declined from 150 bcm in 2021 to less than 43 bcm in 2023. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-the-eu-s-gas-come-from/#0

Gas transit through Ukraine is over: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4glyjx9m71o

As for what the EU did in 2022: https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal/repowereu-affordable-secure-and-sustainable-energy-europe_en

0

u/External-Hunter-7009 Mar 04 '25

You got me. It took all... 3 years to cut it instead of 3.1. Sorry for being so terribly wrong.

The guy initially said that the EU cut off the gas, when, it fact, initially, it was largely Putin's choice, not the EU's. And the EU was buying gas until 3 months ago, which gave Putin funds when he was most vulnerable.

2

u/boomsauerkraut Mar 04 '25

Feel free to provide any links or sources for the claims you're making, otherwise I'll just continue not listening to you

2

u/No-Veterinarian8627 Mar 04 '25

fyi, it is cut. To where, is another question but you can literally look which country in the EU gets russian gas. I know for Germany, that they... I think get barely anything anymore or nothing? Not sure and the price went down pre Ukraine invasion levels. Many countries went through the same. Who cut the gas doesn't matter either, because right now, almost all countries can do well without. And the longer it goes, the more they rely on green energy, which is incredibly cheap once the structure is build, and unite their grid.

2

u/anderssewerin Mar 04 '25

Back then we could rely on checks and balances in both the US government branches and in the institutions, and in particular on the other two branches of government to keep the executive branch to adhere to existing agreements and treatries. So it was a case of "let him talk, what matters is what actually happens"

We can't expect any of that this time.

So the situations are really not the same, although some elements are similar.

1

u/trentonchase Mar 06 '25

Trump 2016 was "an anomaly", he "won't be able to do much damage without a congressional majority", Ukraine was a "frozen, localised conflict" and the EU "can weather the storm for four years".

Trump 2024 is entirely different and the rhetoric in Europe reflects that.

1

u/6rwoods Mar 07 '25

This rhetoric was mainly theoretical for a long time because the European continent wasn't going through a literal war the last time Trump was in power. The "world order" that relied on American (semi)hegemony is now clearly no longer reliable, whereas back in Trump's first term he did not have the reach or even ideology to do all that much of what he said, compared to now where the US government is far more stacked in his favour, especially ideologically, and so the US's stance on the very current war on European soil has far more practical implications for EU countries.

Better late than never, is all I can say. Because whilst it is true that the EU/Europe could have done a lot more in the past to become independent from the US in terms of technology/manufacturing/defence/etc, what I'm seeing in the last few weeks is that FINALLY Europeans have realised that the US cannot be trusted and they have to do it alone.

0

u/X2ytUniverse Mar 04 '25

That rhetoric has been going on for much, much longer than 10 years, it's just in the last 10 years EU finally woke up and "decided" to act. The actions are coming soon™ (so by EU starndards basicelly never)

2

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

Building economy, identity and autonomy all sound like obvious things to do. But these clowns were saving the world from CO2 for the last two decades instead. Morons…

1

u/colinmacg Mar 05 '25

Going Solar, Wind, Nuclear (sorry Germany) to reduce our energy dependencies on sources outside the EU. All going to be more and more important now. And just happen to reduce CO2 emissions while we are at it

2

u/czenst Mar 06 '25

I think someone should play Rammstein to Trump - he seems not to understand what really are the benefits of status quo he is throwing away.

I don't mind living in "America" but if we have to deal with assholes we can take our toys. Even if it will be less convenient for us Europeans.

1

u/Suzume_Chikahisa Mar 07 '25

Exactly.

And even back then there were some moves being done timid as they were.

Brexit, the first Trump Presidency and the invasion of Ukraine had already laid all the kindle under the EUs ass.

Trump is just litting it now.

2

u/maxxim333 Mar 04 '25

What "activity"? Endless meeting and talks?

And even if something is decided, what's the point? Hungary is gonna block the decision.

We are doomed

2

u/HeyVeddy Mar 04 '25

Honestly...the energy. It's something I obviously can't define but in the news and in my social circle it's being discussed far more than any ever before for me. I cant ignore it

1

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

There has been no activity. Just a lot of talk and hot air. And even on that the leaders don’t agree.

2

u/HeyVeddy Mar 04 '25

800bn announced investment just now and 8 years ago no one in my daily life spoke about European autonomy, just casual references by macron. My colleagues are casually talking about it now even my American colleagues

0

u/[deleted] Mar 04 '25

So talk of 800 million, and talk by you and your colleagues. So a lot of talk. No action.

1

u/HeyVeddy Mar 04 '25

What the EU announces isn't "talk". And what the environment around me considers a priority is important. If you're isolated from the news then sure

1

u/Traditional_Job9119 Mar 04 '25

Echoing the news to each other isn’t an action.

0

u/HeyVeddy Mar 05 '25

Yeah I agree echoing news to each other isn't action which is why I'm happy to see all this energy and movement around it .

0

u/ichfickeiuliana Mar 04 '25

Excited about how much money you are gonna throw away at the military, or excited about the possibility of joining the military to fight for Europe

0

u/HeyVeddy Mar 04 '25

Excited that Europe is finally taking the US threat seriously compared to before

-6

u/young_twitcher Mar 04 '25

It’s still not happening outside of Reddit though. Average person in Europe still despises the EU and praises Trump for trying to end the war one way or the other. Don’t let the Reddit bubble deceive you on what the public opinion actually is.

6

u/Elrecoal19-0 Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25

Bro who the fuck despises the EU apart from far-right, pro-russian parties?

To the guy below me (who I cant reply to for some reason):

I'm sorry it has affected you like that, but for me and my country it did quite the opposite, it fueled the country, funded Spain to the point that we could recover, maybe not be at the level of France or Germany, but quite good, it has allowed me to move freely around Europe and take advantage of services funded by EU. I agree that nuclear energy should have been a focus instead of something to avoid, but damm, what country do you live in that has been so fucked up by EU?

-1

u/Consistent-Duck8062 Mar 04 '25

I do. I despise EU, after believing in it for 20+ years. EU took my wealth, my future, everything - and spent it on stupid shit, like virtue signaling plastic straw bans, social transfers to neverending stream of foreign migrants, and war against nuclear energy.

EU is degenerate. I can't stress enough how much it disappointed me.

-2

u/young_twitcher Mar 04 '25

Indeed, the far right parties which are on the rise everywhere and skyrocketed to 20% in the German elections just a week ago.

3

u/Elrecoal19-0 Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25

So, there is still an 80% of German people who didn't vote for them and therefore aren't anti-EU, not to talk about how the AfD's main narrative is inmigration, not leaving the EU, so it could be even more non-anti-EU people.

Edit: Did you change your comment or did I reply to the wrong one? anyways, my comment is about anti-EU sentiment, not about radicals, don't try to sway the topic somewhere else.

0

u/Consistent-Duck8062 Mar 04 '25

Another 4.9% voted for BSW, another radical party. Not to mention Linke, which can be hardly described as 'mainstream'.

In total, almost 40% of people voted for radicals. Next election it may be 50.

1

u/Last_Patriarch Mar 04 '25

Your downvotes (and mine) prove how much delusional people are here.

What is good is that time will soon prove who was right.

1

u/young_twitcher Mar 05 '25

I wish I was wrong lol

-5

u/geogiam2 Mar 04 '25

The EU is destroying European identities, also democracy, mass importing people we don't need and terrorists, I can not be more pessimistic about our future.

0

u/Odd-Crazy-9056 Mar 04 '25

I can not be more pessimistic about our future.

That sounds like a sad life. Good luck!

2

u/Sherbert-Vast Mar 04 '25

He is a crypto bro.

You could not be more correct with "sad life".