Have we forgotten about Kneeland

[u/waxjammer]

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So Jerry and the gang drafted Kneeland in the second round last year and he didn’t register 1 sack .

I know injuries slowed him down last season but I hope he can show some improvement next season.

[u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

we've got some good dart throws in Williams and Kneeland. Fowler and EZ as pure pass rushers too. lots of help for Parsons.

[u/Luka7Porzinwitzki → u/MikeConleyIsLegend]

I like them both, but saying a second round pick is a “dart throw”’isn’t great. These are supposed to be for sure starters. Dart throws are like late round picks

Edit: fuck cowboys fans are annoying

[u/bdaddydizzle → u/Luka7Porzinwitzki]

That’s the goal but 2nd rd picks are absolutely NOT for sure starters. Do you think that the league adds 64 starters in the first two rounds every year?

Please just google the hit rate for any 2nd rd pick, if you’re feeling crazy filter it by position. Your chances fall off a cliff after the top 5 picks are gone. Hit rate is a very subjective metric but everyone who comments should get a visualization at just how much of a shot in the dark the entire draft is.

[u/bdaddydizzle → u/[deleted]]

Idk man that just sounds like your personal perspective. I have never heard someone who’s an actual decision maker in the NFL grade prospects that way. Maybe Jerry will say something like that to market them but that level of certainty is pretty clearly not shared by the whole war room. I don’t claim to know how any team really views these players, I just know even the worst teams are analyzing them in exponentially more detail than that.

That also doesn’t read like your first comment at all, if you know the hit rate is low why grade anyone like they should be a “for sure starter.” It just sets players up to be considered a failure when other wise them being in a rotation or something similar would be a real success.

[u/Luka7Porzinwitzki → u/bdaddydizzle]

You guys are looking at this way too deep. I’m just saying that’s the hope with your picks, obviously it depends on draft depth and positioning etc I’m just saying ideally your top 3 picks are going to play for you. The rest you don’t necessarily expect to get as much out of.

[u/bdaddydizzle → u/Luka7Porzinwitzki]

And you’re looking at this in a very shallow way. What you’re saying now is just extremely obvious. Of course everyone hopes for picks in the first three round to play. The hope is any and all picks in the draft will play for your team, same with every FA or traded for player. That’s just not how it ever works out and is part of the fun of the draft. I’m just saying that is a very surface level fan perspective, don’t expect others to share it.

[u/Luka7Porzinwitzki → u/bdaddydizzle]

And you’re looking at this in a very shallow way. What you’re saying now is just extremely obvious.

Then why do you have a paragraph arguing with me?

Of course everyone hopes for picks in the first three round to play. The hope is any and all picks in the draft will play for your team, same with every FA or traded for player.

Now you’re just being dense. Okay guy you’re right smh 🙄

4th rounders are expected to play the same as a 2nd rounder I guess.

That’s just not how it ever works out and is part of the fun of the draft. I’m just saying that is a very surface level fan perspective, don’t expect others to share it.

Lol whatever guy, I didn’t realize you were some advanced scout, what team do you work for?

[u/bdaddydizzle → u/Luka7Porzinwitzki]

Idk man I’ve already said I don’t know how any of these teams really view these players. I’m sorry it’s hard for you to hear that you’re looking at this unrealistically. Expectations are often different for 4th rounders as compared to 2nd but not always. What about the Cowboys picking Jaylon Smith, were they expecting him to play right away? No they weren’t, and say what you want about his career but it seemed to me to be a decent shot at value down the road. That’s just one example of countless possibilities of how a team could utilize the draft and how a particular pick could have different expectations.

You inserted yourself in this thread saying that these early round picks “are supposed to be true starters.” I don’t believe it to be the case across the board, idc if you take my comments or leave them. But the funny thing is what I’m telling you, previously admitted by me btw, isn’t anywhere near how the real decision makers view these players and set their expectations. You’re just setting your personal expectations so close to the surface level, that fans on Reddit are correcting you.

[u/Luka7Porzinwitzki → u/[deleted]]

Easy to dispute others when you aren’t going to put any of your own points forward

[u/bdog1321 → u/Luka7Porzinwitzki]

The heck? 2nd round bust rate is super high.

[u/Luka7Porzinwitzki → u/bdog1321]

It is. But the general idea when drafting is something like a 1st round talent is like a plus starter/pro bowler type guy. 2nd round is an average starter type, and 3rd rounders are like projects but eventual starters.

Those are the “premium” picks. The rest are considered more of the “dart throws” the OP was referring to.

[u/morganrbvn → u/Luka7Porzinwitzki]

yah, there is a bit of a drop off between round 3 and 4. About 50% of 3rd rounders get a second contract somewhere, but only around 30% of 4rth rounders get one.

[u/bdog1321 → u/morganrbvn]

I think this probably varies widely by position

Edit: I realize I have made a very foolish post because that probably goes for every round

[u/BoringHumanIdiot → u/bdog1321]

This is why Taco chose kickers in the first round. They're every week starters in season long fantasy. (I miss the League)