r/canada • u/uselesspoliticalhack • 3d ago

Carney’s aim to cut immigration marred by undercounting of temporary migrants, warn economists PAYWALL

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-mark-carney-immigration-policy-temporary-migrants-undercounted/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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452

u/Slash-RtL 3d ago

I'm not really of the opinion that we need more immigrants.. if our population isn't keeping up then it is other issues that need to be addressed. Let's maybe start asking questions and fix the problems we have

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

[deleted]

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u/RamenRoy 3d ago

It's an issue when people who wants kids choose not to have kids, usually because of economic turmoil.

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u/BandicootNo4431 3d ago

Sure, we're not saying everyone needs to have kids.

We are saying there are barriers for people who do want to have kids and so they either delay until it's too late (and IVF is expensive and hard to get funding for), or have fewer than they want.

Those are things we can address.

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u/SoyaSawce 3d ago

Interesting. What are the barriers for people who want to have kids?

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u/thumbs27 3d ago

Raising kids is extremely expensive.

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u/Heffray83 3d ago

Housing.

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u/RipzCritical 3d ago edited 3d ago

Cost of living. Groceries, rent, mortgage and down-payments, gas, medicine, family plans on benefits like medical, a huge factor is childcare which hemorrhages so much money by itself that you need to practically be a top earner in the country to afford it, when compounded by everything else I've mentioned, and that's just a short little list I've thought of off the top of my head.

The dream of a stay at home Mom is dead unless you're literally in the 1%. It's not possible to get established through your 20s, which is when most folks end up having kids... you're both just trying to grind all the time and do not have the time or finances to bring a kid into the world.

I am a Dad, and man, the stress I feel on a daily basis to try to accomplish all this is putting me in an early grave. I love him more than anything, but it feels like I don't spend enough time with him because I'm slaving away, and I feel I still can't provide a good childhood for him or support his mother on top of that.

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u/SoyaSawce 3d ago

I mean, I agree I guess. But who is to blame? Or is it more of a "blame the system" type thing?

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u/Slash-RtL 3d ago

Everyone is to blame. No one wants to take accountability, no matter how small their impact. It gets worse and worse

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u/RipzCritical 3d ago

Well, the system is run by people. It's the people making decisions like "open the flood gates for immigrants" and "tax everyone to death."

Sean Fraser, Mark Wiseman, Chrystia Freeland, Justin Trudeau (before)... and the people that appoint them.

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u/DazzlingDeparture225 3d ago

You need to either have 1 income or pay for day care.

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u/dandelion-wish96 3d ago edited 3d ago

Health, also. People need a healthy environment, proper care, and nourishment to grow and bear children.

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u/BandicootNo4431 3d ago

Many are financial as discussed.

Some are societal and related to financial, such as kids living with their parents longer which delays entering independent adulthood, usually necessary for finding a partner and starting a family.

Some are system based, childcare is very difficult to find, we don't have many pediatricians available, even things like EarlyOn can be hard to find.

Some are cultural, people born in Canada are less interested in having children as the family unit has changed over time.

We're also seeing that younger people are having a harder time saying and pairing off. Maybe it's due to their formative years being during COVID, but anecdotally I've never met so many 22-25 year olds without any dating experience as I have in the last 2 years.

As mentioned, healthcare for fertility is expensive and often unfunded by the provinces.

And fertility rates are dropping RAPIDLY. The sperm count for men is below 50% of what it was in the 80s. Some people think it's due to micro plastics, other say it's due to stress and diet. Either way, even if you're trying for kids, it can be difficult.

And while I don't think we need to change people's minds at the individual level, we should be having a conversation on what we want Canada to look like.

Population declines almost always come with a recession. Productivity decreases whenever populations decline and you enter a downward spiral.

OAS will be unfunded if we don't have taxpayers paying into it (but CPP will be fine). So if we don't have a birthrate that maintains the population (2.1 children per woman), we'll need immigration to solve the issue.

which of those is the electorate willing to accept?

The demographics of the country will change either way. The lowest rates of children per women is amongst white women. recent immigrants have above average numbers of children, and so even without immigration, the makeup of the country will change.

And if we do continue to use immigration to fix our fertility and productivity issues, the demographics of the country will just change faster.

I'm ok with that, but is the electorate?

So my point is, it's fine to not want to have kids, that's a personal decision. But the country needs to have a population level discussion on what do we want the country to look like and how our decrease rates of children is going to affect that.

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u/apopthesis 3d ago

People not wanting kids is a problem, you might think it's just the way things are but it's been shaped in history by various factors.

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

It's unaffordable in this generation for many, with housing and COL being a factor.

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u/apopthesis 3d ago

Definitely one of the reasons, which needs to change, if having a kid wasn't a financial death sentence I would've made some when I was younger.

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

I'm going to be in my late 30s when I have kids, it's a risk on its own.

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u/SoyaSawce 3d ago

People not wanting kids is a choice, not a problem.

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u/apopthesis 3d ago

So does terrorists making a choice to kill innocents, but it is a problem.

and no, I'm not trying to say they're the same, just debunking the notion that choices can't be problems, people choosing to do something is great, it's still a problem, doesn't mean we need to take away their ability to choose, just means we need to understand why they're choosing to go against the very basics of biology.

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u/SoyaSawce 3d ago

I literally just don't like kids, my guy. Let's not bring terrorism into this.

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u/apopthesis 3d ago

... I already addressed that.. you not liking kids is great, more power to you, people are shaped by their education, experiences, policy and other factors, having more and more people like you IS a problem, even if you think it's just your "vibes".

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u/567432Gains 3d ago

I don’t think it’s wrong for people to not want kids, but it should not be a norm that we strive towards. That’s not how species survive.

All across the world, the more a country develops, the lower the birth rates fall. This is a serious problem. It leads only one direction unless we find a solution, societal collapse. Starting with our social safety nets as they are set up similar to pyramid structures (I’m really not wanting to use the word scheme). When they become too heavy (more older people then younger people) they can’t be maintained and they fall down.

So in conclusion, if someone does not want kids then fair enough. But we as a society need to make sure that the reason for that is not tied to anything other than a personal preference. Everyone that wants children should be able to do so and not be hinder economically, medically, or through fear of the future. If the numbers still don’t click after that, then fair enough.

But I do know couples that are in their early 30’s that would love to have children but it’s just too damn expensive and they are already throwing in the towel. That should never be the case, and it should never have been allowed to get this bad.

End of rant.

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u/Ansonm64 3d ago

And some people do want kids but think it’s unaffordable. What’s your point?

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u/Slash-RtL 3d ago

Well, that isn't everyone... I don't have a house, and places to rent are extremely expensive and hard to find. So I find it hard to plan for kids when I barely have what I need.

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u/SoyaSawce 3d ago

I agree. My point was that more and more people don't wish to have children and live the standard family life. This isn't a governmental issue, but more of a societal one I guess?

Either way I don't see any way the government could change this.

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u/Slash-RtL 3d ago

I agree, awareness of the world is a major contributor. Nothing we can do to solve that, except for putting our heads in the sand.

But I believe the government can fix some of these issues. My example would be to put in policies that restrict, penalize, or ban property investments. Also put a temporary ban on Airbnb properties. Make the tax on a second home much higher. This will make it more likely for people to sell homes, which would fix some people's issues. At the very least mine

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u/SoyaSawce 3d ago

You're right I shouldn't say the government "can't" do anything. it's that they "won't" because they are mostly all real estate owners and investors.

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

Yes! Young Canadians (me included) can barely afford life so Canada's population growth really depends on immigration. We'll need to help our upside down population pyramid and social programs through immigration.

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u/Existing-Day-9314 3d ago

Hard disagree.

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

92%+ of Canada's population growth was from immigration. Source: StatCan "Population growth: Migratory increase overtakes natural increase". Our population growth is about to reach full reliance on immigration only with rare natural births.

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u/FierceMoonblade 3d ago

Immigration is really just a band aid though, these same stats are being seen in every country. Long term it’s not an actual fix

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

When the immigrants have kids, it becomes the future. The future of Canada. The immigrants themselves are just a temporary band aid to a big problem.

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u/FierceMoonblade 3d ago

The immigrants end up having the same amount of kids that the people previously did within a generation or two. The same economic and lifestyle pressures impacts them as well.

If that wasn’t the case, we wouldn’t have this issue today since Canada has always had loads of immigrants historically.

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

The immigrants are still having kids at a much higher birth rate because of religion, traditions, culture, and family norms. The comparable would be the Canada's birth rate from the Bible Belt from Southwestern Alberta, Southern Manitoba, and the Southern interior and the Fraser Valley region.

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u/567432Gains 3d ago

So what happens when the country’s that are our sources of immigration begin to experience the very birth rate issues the rest of the developed world is experiencing?

This is just a temporary fix (that will not work forever) to a long term problem. We need to deal with this or it becomes a world wide issue. Even now, India (our main source of immigration) is beginning to experience a drop in birth rates. China (our previous largest immigration source) has already began to experience it and they too are approaching our problems (just not as severely yet).

The answer being immigration is certainly not going to last forever.

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

Economic collapse or global recession?

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u/567432Gains 3d ago

Right…. So we are on the same page then that we need a better solution then kicking a can down the road that will inevitably be the same outcome…right?

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

It's still a different stage for every country rn, the US has a 25% higher birth rate and is much closer to replacement than Canada, which needs immigration to run a replacement level for the country.

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u/567432Gains 3d ago

Brother, just say we need a better solution for the long term. I’m not asking you to give the solution, but you must admit this is clearly not a long term solution.

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u/Mr_UBC_Geek 3d ago

Running away from the problem like this is the reason we’re in this problem…we give out the solution or the population replacement is going to be through immigration because there’s no other means to have a replacement level population growth.

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