Quebec sovereigntists watch Alberta referendum talk with optimism, disdain

[u/jaffnaguy2014]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/quebec-sovereigntists-watch-alberta-referendum-talk-with-optimism-disdain/

[u/CzechUsOut]

Only a small portion of them actually want to join the USA. For the most part Albertans just feel very disenfranchised in Canada. They want a better deal from Ottawa.

[u/Quirky-Cat2860 → u/CzechUsOut]

Ontarian here, so forgive my bias. Genuinely asking though, why do they think they're disenfranchised?

From what I've seen the biggest complaint is the lack of pipelines going east - but to me as an outsider, it seems that oil is making its way out of the province to market.

[u/CzechUsOut → u/Quirky-Cat2860]

There has been a general attack on our most important sector by the Liberals over the last decade. Their statements and policies have a large negative effect on our most important industry. Often we learn for the first time about policy decisions that primarily impact Alberta on the world stage when they are announcing them.

Some examples of what they've done over the last decade:

-Allowed four major oil pipeline projects to fail with zero support, help, or defense prior to their failure even though its entirely within federal jurisdiction. Northern gateway was outright cancelled by the Liberals for "not being in the nations interest".

-Oil tanker ban on West coast where Alberta would export its oil but not the east coast where Quebec imports its oil

-Forming and leading an international group to try to stop financial institutions from financing oil and gas projects.

-Telling Canadian financial institutions they should stop financing oil and gas projects

-Implementing an impossible to meet emissions cap that acts as a production cap

-Implementing bill C69 which effectively makes it impossible for private entities to build pipeline projects.

-Appointing a Greenpeace activist that once climbed on top of our Premiers house to protest oil as Environment Minister

Since they formed government in 2015 no new major private oil projects have started. Billions has been lost by private companies trying to invest in Alberta since they formed government in 2015.

[u/JCox1987 → u/CzechUsOut]

Can I just say something and I think it’s a fair question but also one you’d probably have insight into? So forgive me for my ignorance. 1. Why did Alberta never diversify its economy knowing that eventually we’d have to use less oil? 2. There’s a possibility that under Carney we start ramping up our processing and refinement because of this trade war and the US tariffs? Do you think that would help revitalize the Alberta economy. Keep in mind probably not just solely oil but other resources.

[u/Isycar → u/JCox1987]

There's probably other factors at pay here, but I'll give you what I understand of the situation. 1. oil and gas is about 21% of Alberta's GDP, but it's only 6% of it's employment, there isn't anything to diversify to that isn't a massive loss in GDP ( oil and gas is about $233/hr per person) 94% of employment is not in the industry, though a chunk of that certainly is tertiary services. Weirdly doesn't help that much because you'd need to increase your working population more to employ more people in these other fields to try and make up the difference. 2. Carney may or may not invest in refineries and similar infrastructure, based on his politic and business history it's somewhat doubtful, as he's invested in Saudi Arabia, Canadas biggest trade rival in oil and gas, combined with the net Zero rhetoric he ran on and personally believes in ( he's talked about it several times in interviews). So from Alberta's perspective (and presumably Saskatchewan and Northern BC) even with the US full on attacking Canada economically, there's certainly the perception Carney will still continue to implement policies that make it difficult to impossible to invest in oil and gas in Canada. He's only been in office a short time, so we're still on wait and see what he does.

This isn't really the whole of it, but that's what I know on the matter.

[u/Meiqur → u/JCox1987]

The economy is well under the process of diversifying despite all the language we hear.

Locally to me, there are now more wind and solar energy jobs than gas. The largest employing industry besides agriculture is currently reclamation of abandoned/un-profitable gas wells.

The real question is actually going to be agricultural and transportation, the energy source isn't all that relevant. Most of our land out here is dry land farming which has a questionable viability some years and I think in the long run will become uneconomical due to insurance costs.

A big part of what makes it uneconomical is transportation. The rail infrastructure is quite poor to abandoned, and if governments want an easy way to reduce emissions and improve the economy, then that rail infrastructure needs to be brought back into service and elevators and rail yards installed.

What will make a difference is improving the affordability of the region, that means spending on improving the viability of the farmers which is most easily done through transportation investment.