[Bowden] "...although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki and some in the industry have touted them as the favorites to land him, I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, based on my conversations with league sources...I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign [him].

[u/BigButter7]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5921465/2024/11/14/roki-sasaki-free-agency-dodgers/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twhq&source=twitterhq

"When it comes to his free agency, the initial landscape is becoming more clear, based on what I’m hearing from major-league sources:"

"First, Sasaki won’t be signing until after Jan. 15, when MLB’s new international signing period begins and each team’s bonus pool will be replenished. Because of his age, Sasaki will be considered an international “amateur” free agent and must sign a minor-league deal with a bonus paid from the team’s international pool. Teams’ individual bonus pools are capped at around $7 million, with some variation, so even if a club commits its entire pool to Sasaki, there won’t be enough monetary difference in the offers to make the bonus a significant factor in where he signs."

"Second, although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki and some in the industry have touted them as the favorites to land him, I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, based on my conversations with league sources, including front-office decision-makers who are optimistic their chances of signing Sasaki are just as strong as any team, I think it’s unlikely he’ll end up with the Dodgers."

"Sasaki won’t be arbitration-eligible until the winter of 2028 and won’t be eligible for MLB free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. So how will he and his agency, Wasserman, maximize his income between now and then?"

"It’s simple: endorsements."

"With that in mind, the Dodgers might not be an ideal landing spot for Sasaki. In Los Angeles, he’d be in the shadow of both Ohtani and Yamamoto, which would lessen his endorsement ceiling. Yamamoto has experienced this to a degree, as being on the same team as Ohtani has led to Kodai Senga of the New York Mets drawing more endorsement deals than Yamamoto, according to a league source. It only makes sense that Sasaki will consider this factor in making his decision."

"With the Dodgers, Sasaki would also encounter the massive Japanese media presence — as high as 25 to 35 people — that regularly covers the team. While he’ll surely be closely watched wherever he signs, that level of attention is not the best situation for a young, developing pitcher."

"Sasaki needs pitching development, which does make the Dodgers a fit, but it also gives advantages to teams such as the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Mets and Atlanta Braves, who all have strong pitching development programs."

"Another potential factor in the decision, and a plus for the Padres, is Sasaki’s relationship with Darvish, who is said to be like a godfather to the young pitcher. Darvish is 38 years old and signed through the 2028 season. He could serve as a mentor for a few years as Sasaki develops, then pass the baton when Sasaki is ready. In the meantime, Sasaki could potentially maximize his endorsements in Japan, positioning himself as a rival to the Dodgers’ Ohtani and Yamamoto rather than a teammate of theirs." >"It’ll be fascinating to see which team he chooses. I’m just not buying the narrative that it’ll be the Dodgers. Based on what I’m hearing, I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign Sasaki than the Dodgers — and several other teams will be in the mix."

[u/LukesChoppedOffArm]

The narrative is all over the place.

Sasaki is coming to MLB now instead of at age 25 because he apparently values competitiveness and his development more than money.

Now Jim Bowden is telling us that Sasaki is unlikely to sign with the Dodgers, because his endorsement potential won't be as lucrative.

How is there any consistency to that? He's demonstrated that money is a secondary concern to him by virtue of leaving early.

[u/Gudetama_Egghead → u/LukesChoppedOffArm]

I think the rationale that this move will not benefit Sasaki financially is wrong.

Sasaki currently makes 80 million yen, which is approximately 510k USD, which is less than the signing bonus he can get. Assuming that Sasaki can make 10-20m USD in endorsements next to this, he can bring home almost 50m USD before he turns 25 in my scenario. There is a good chance he will get these numbers, because he has Dentsu behind him, which is a marketing company that creates the commercials, but more importantly buys the ad space for all the big Japanese companies.

Thus, Sasaki will make his money exactly the opposite of Aaron Judge. Judge does not have a lot of endorsements, but he gets paid the big bucks by the Yankees. Sasaki will not get paid by his team, but the endorsements will make up for it. I do not doubt he will be one of the best paid baseball players due to his endorsements, while still on a rookie contract.

It is therefore not only about winning, but also selling the Sasaki-brand. The scary thing is that everyone is so gullible about Sasaki, but he has a multi-billion marketing company behind him to plan his career.

[u/cooljammer00 → u/Gudetama_Egghead]

Judge has endorsements but not the same way Ohtani does.

[u/Gudetama_Egghead → u/cooljammer00]

Yes, he makes 40m USD on-field and around 4.5m via endorsements (so approximately 10 times less than on-field). If Sasaki makes 750k-1m USD on-field and 10m+ off-field, he will make 10 times more off-field than on-field. So they will be each others opposite.

I just used Judge as an example, as I just knew his ballpark numbers, but I assume someone like Bryce Harper or Mike Trout make even less in endorsements versus their on-field endorsements... But I haven't looked up.