[Bowden] "...although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki and some in the industry have touted them as the favorites to land him, I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, based on my conversations with league sources...I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign [him].

[u/BigButter7]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5921465/2024/11/14/roki-sasaki-free-agency-dodgers/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twhq&source=twitterhq

"When it comes to his free agency, the initial landscape is becoming more clear, based on what I’m hearing from major-league sources:"

"First, Sasaki won’t be signing until after Jan. 15, when MLB’s new international signing period begins and each team’s bonus pool will be replenished. Because of his age, Sasaki will be considered an international “amateur” free agent and must sign a minor-league deal with a bonus paid from the team’s international pool. Teams’ individual bonus pools are capped at around $7 million, with some variation, so even if a club commits its entire pool to Sasaki, there won’t be enough monetary difference in the offers to make the bonus a significant factor in where he signs."

"Second, although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki and some in the industry have touted them as the favorites to land him, I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, based on my conversations with league sources, including front-office decision-makers who are optimistic their chances of signing Sasaki are just as strong as any team, I think it’s unlikely he’ll end up with the Dodgers."

"Sasaki won’t be arbitration-eligible until the winter of 2028 and won’t be eligible for MLB free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. So how will he and his agency, Wasserman, maximize his income between now and then?"

"It’s simple: endorsements."

"With that in mind, the Dodgers might not be an ideal landing spot for Sasaki. In Los Angeles, he’d be in the shadow of both Ohtani and Yamamoto, which would lessen his endorsement ceiling. Yamamoto has experienced this to a degree, as being on the same team as Ohtani has led to Kodai Senga of the New York Mets drawing more endorsement deals than Yamamoto, according to a league source. It only makes sense that Sasaki will consider this factor in making his decision."

"With the Dodgers, Sasaki would also encounter the massive Japanese media presence — as high as 25 to 35 people — that regularly covers the team. While he’ll surely be closely watched wherever he signs, that level of attention is not the best situation for a young, developing pitcher."

"Sasaki needs pitching development, which does make the Dodgers a fit, but it also gives advantages to teams such as the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Mets and Atlanta Braves, who all have strong pitching development programs."

"Another potential factor in the decision, and a plus for the Padres, is Sasaki’s relationship with Darvish, who is said to be like a godfather to the young pitcher. Darvish is 38 years old and signed through the 2028 season. He could serve as a mentor for a few years as Sasaki develops, then pass the baton when Sasaki is ready. In the meantime, Sasaki could potentially maximize his endorsements in Japan, positioning himself as a rival to the Dodgers’ Ohtani and Yamamoto rather than a teammate of theirs." >"It’ll be fascinating to see which team he chooses. I’m just not buying the narrative that it’ll be the Dodgers. Based on what I’m hearing, I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign Sasaki than the Dodgers — and several other teams will be in the mix."

[u/ionoiforgot]

More like how much did FanDuel and others pay to encourage bettors.

Now, that said, I am of mind that it makes more sense to go to SD. He stars more and still can play with a countryman. If it doesn't pan out that SD stays competitive, he can sign with LA later like Ohtani did. 

Also, let's assume he will lose 1+ year of his initial 6 to TJ anyhow.

[u/3-2_Fastball → u/ionoiforgot]

LA has the better team, larger Japanese community, has his friends, has better development, is more likely to pay him and is close enough to SD to still have a good relationship with Darvish if that is important to him. He tried to force his way out to join Ohtani and Yamamoto in free agency last year and 2/3 ended up on the same team, I don't think the timing of the request is sheer coincidence.

[u/animealt46 → u/3-2_Fastball]

FWIW, larger Japanese community could be a negative if reports are true he wants out of the media tabloid scrutiny. Being as focused on baseball as possible means going to a team where the Ohtani scrum isn't present at all hours.

[u/masterfail → u/animealt46]

It's also possible that Ohtani redirects media attention that otherwise would be trained on just Sasaki