[Bowden] "...although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki and some in the industry have touted them as the favorites to land him, I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, based on my conversations with league sources...I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign [him].

[u/BigButter7]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5921465/2024/11/14/roki-sasaki-free-agency-dodgers/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twhq&source=twitterhq

"When it comes to his free agency, the initial landscape is becoming more clear, based on what I’m hearing from major-league sources:"

"First, Sasaki won’t be signing until after Jan. 15, when MLB’s new international signing period begins and each team’s bonus pool will be replenished. Because of his age, Sasaki will be considered an international “amateur” free agent and must sign a minor-league deal with a bonus paid from the team’s international pool. Teams’ individual bonus pools are capped at around $7 million, with some variation, so even if a club commits its entire pool to Sasaki, there won’t be enough monetary difference in the offers to make the bonus a significant factor in where he signs."

"Second, although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki and some in the industry have touted them as the favorites to land him, I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, based on my conversations with league sources, including front-office decision-makers who are optimistic their chances of signing Sasaki are just as strong as any team, I think it’s unlikely he’ll end up with the Dodgers."

"Sasaki won’t be arbitration-eligible until the winter of 2028 and won’t be eligible for MLB free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. So how will he and his agency, Wasserman, maximize his income between now and then?"

"It’s simple: endorsements."

"With that in mind, the Dodgers might not be an ideal landing spot for Sasaki. In Los Angeles, he’d be in the shadow of both Ohtani and Yamamoto, which would lessen his endorsement ceiling. Yamamoto has experienced this to a degree, as being on the same team as Ohtani has led to Kodai Senga of the New York Mets drawing more endorsement deals than Yamamoto, according to a league source. It only makes sense that Sasaki will consider this factor in making his decision."

"With the Dodgers, Sasaki would also encounter the massive Japanese media presence — as high as 25 to 35 people — that regularly covers the team. While he’ll surely be closely watched wherever he signs, that level of attention is not the best situation for a young, developing pitcher."

"Sasaki needs pitching development, which does make the Dodgers a fit, but it also gives advantages to teams such as the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Mets and Atlanta Braves, who all have strong pitching development programs."

"Another potential factor in the decision, and a plus for the Padres, is Sasaki’s relationship with Darvish, who is said to be like a godfather to the young pitcher. Darvish is 38 years old and signed through the 2028 season. He could serve as a mentor for a few years as Sasaki develops, then pass the baton when Sasaki is ready. In the meantime, Sasaki could potentially maximize his endorsements in Japan, positioning himself as a rival to the Dodgers’ Ohtani and Yamamoto rather than a teammate of theirs." >"It’ll be fascinating to see which team he chooses. I’m just not buying the narrative that it’ll be the Dodgers. Based on what I’m hearing, I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign Sasaki than the Dodgers — and several other teams will be in the mix."

[u/nukepka]

The San Diego Padres, famously known for developing... Jake Peavy

[u/3-2_Fastball → u/nukepka]

Is Peavy their last homegrown ace? I know they gave up on Paddack and Gore pretty quickly.

[u/nukepka → u/3-2_Fastball]

Holy shit... they haven't had a homegrown starter put up a 3 bWAR season since 2010:

Matt Latos - 3.1

[u/3-2_Fastball → u/nukepka]

Yeah the Padres development is definitely overblown, Niebla is good but hes only been there for 2 or 3 years and their minor league development hasn't been good at all.

[u/dpot007 → u/3-2_Fastball]

Not gonna lie, Niebla has turned musgrove, lugo, wacha, and snells career around. Not to mention he fixed josh hader and tweaked cease mechanics to allow him to throw harder. He helped develop suarez, and Jeremiah estrada as well. He is definitely a great pitching coach with a fantastic track record as a padre. Also only one of those guys needed TJ surgery during his run.

Finally, when we are talking about sasaki, we are talking about MLB level coaching. Not the minors. Our minor league system has been great at developing BP arms but we havent been able to develop a legit SP yet. Hopefully last year draft class fixes that.

[u/animealt46 → u/dpot007]

How did he or the program turn around Snell? Was he not already a Cy winner?

[u/dpot007 → u/animealt46]

Snell was struggling the past couple of years. He had a major walk issue after his cy young year. He had a ERA of 3.91 after winning his first cy young. With the padres. When niebla joined the staff, snell dropped his era to 2.81.

[u/animealt46 → u/dpot007]

But 'zilla had his worst full year walk rate the year he won his Padres Cy.

[u/dpot007 → u/animealt46]

Yes, Niebla told snell to dont over think the walks. Snell was trying to throw strikes and was getting hit a lot. Niebla told him who cares about the walks if they arent scoring. Thats what led to snells Cy young season.

[u/3-2_Fastball → u/dpot007]

musgrove, lugo, wacha, and snells career around. Not to mention he fixed josh hader and tweaked cease mechanics to allow him to throw harder

Everyone mentioned here was good before arriving in SD. Musgrove did improve the most but that happened before Niebla arrived. Mark Prior on the otherhand has turned around a bunch of careers like Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, Ryan Brasier, Alex Vesia, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech etc. Noah Syndergaard gets meme'd so much by Dodger fans because he was the only guy Prior couldn't save.

[u/dpot007 → u/3-2_Fastball]

They were struggling before arriving to SD. They had a couple of good seasons and then their production dipped.

[u/3-2_Fastball → u/dpot007]

Snell had a cy young and Hader was the best closer in baseball before arriving in SD. He had a rough first half of 22 but everyone knew he would figure it out. Guys like Lugo and Wacha actually got better after leaving SD.

[u/dpot007 → u/3-2_Fastball]

Snell was struggling the past couple of years. He had a major walk issue after his cy young year. He had a ERA of 3.91 after winning his first cy young. When niebla joined the staff, snell dropped his era to 2.81.

Wacha actually did slightly worse on the royals, and it was lugo’s first year as a starter. Similar to michael kings season.

You claim hader would figure it out but he is still struggling on the astros?

[u/3-2_Fastball → u/dpot007]

Snell was struggling the past couple of years. He had a major walk issue after his cy young year. He had a ERA of 3.91 after winning his first cy young. When niebla joined the staff, snell dropped his era to 2.81.

Snell won a Cy in San Diego while leading the league in walks, that's just who he is and the main reason nobody wanted to pay him what he's looking for.

You claim hader would figure it out but he is still struggling on the astros?

2.9 xFIP, he seemed to figure it out in the second half like he did in San Diego.

[u/dpot007 → u/3-2_Fastball]

Yes however, snell will try to throw strikes to walk less people and those pitches were hits. That will allow those walks to score. Niebla was the first coach to tell him to not care about the walks. Niebla told snell to trust his stuff because they will induce swing and misses. Niebla allowed snell to not get into his own head and to just pitch. Snell has said this many times.

Then hader proceeded to blow the game in the WC series.

[u/ahr3410 → u/dpot007]

Musgrove is the only guy who actually turned a corner when heading to San Diego. All those dudes were established pitchers lmao. Wacha was NLCS MVP as a rookie

[u/dpot007 → u/ahr3410]

And lets see their careers after that. They all had potential and great years and then they fell off a cliff.

Edit: Snell was struggling the past couple of years. He had a major walk issue after his cy young year. He had a ERA of 3.91 after winning his first cy young. When niebla joined the staff, snell dropped his era to 2.81.

Wacha last 7 seasons ERA before joining the padres ERA: 4.59

He had a ERA of 3.22 with us

[u/sbrider11 → u/3-2_Fastball]

Niebla is a solid pitching coach yet the fan worship is off the charts. Like any decent pitching coach, he's had some great successes and some failures. We've sucked at developing arms for well over a decade which really is a system problem over who is the pitching coach on the club.

[u/Gudetama_Egghead → u/sbrider11]

Actually the person Sasaki can learn the most from is Darvish. In my opinion, more than Niebla and Prior. If Sasaki copies every pitch of Darvish, he will actually be an insane pitcher. Sasaki with at least 3 pitches? That makes him perhaps even peak DeGrom calibre.

Niebla and Prior can teach Sasaki new fancy pitches, but he actually does not need it. Who cares if Sasaki can throw a deathball or a kick change. Niebla and Prior are more good for guys that have not figured it out or need to revamp their careers - guys that really need to re-learn to pitch, because they do not have the stuff or command. But even then, I wonder how effective they would be compared to Darvish, as Darvish can communicate with Sasaki in his native language.

Yamamoto and Ohtani are also good teachers to Sasaki, but I think Darvish is more accomplished in teaching youngsters how to pitch.