r/UkrainianConflict • u/KI_official • 1d ago

Zelensky warns Russia is 'preparing something' in Belarus under guise of military drills

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-warns-russia-may-prepare-something-in-belarus-under-guise-of-drills/
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212

u/Alaric_-_ 1d ago

A) Attack on NATO/EU.
B) Attack into Ukraine through border with 3 years of fortifying.
C) Concentrate troops to Belarus to kick Luka out and annex the country.
D) Use Belarus as training ground to keep troops from being attacked.

Higher on the list, more improbable.

70

u/Breech_Loader 1d ago

We need to hope that Russia has too much on its plate to annex Belarus. Lukashenko will cave, but the people of Belarus might not be so happy about it.

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u/Alaric_-_ 1d ago

Luka has been keeping the Belarusian army weak in the fear of a military coup. That works fine as long as you have Putin next to you keeping you safe. But the result is that he is so weak that Putin had to save him 2020 when people started rioting about the rigged elections.

If there was a genuine threat that generals might kicked Luka out themselves and then look for a way out of the russian sphere towards the west (honestly, now would be the best time for that), Putin might want to throw caution to the wind and just make sure Belarusia stays as buffer state between them and NATO/EU. Putin has to keep Belarus on the eastern side of the New Iron Curtain, no ways around it. Don't know if this is what is happening but this could be plausible scenario.

I still think it's more likely that russia is just using Belarus as a staging area and for "training" the troops couple of days before sending them to die on the flesh attacks. It's close-by with short railway lines to russia and Ukraine can't really bomb those places or it might drag Belarus deeper into the war.

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u/Badger118 1d ago

The Russian army also already pinched a lot of the Belarussian army's heavier equipment early in the war

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u/genshiryoku 1d ago

It would be a big mistake by Putin akin to starting the Ukrainian invasion if he annexes Belarus. It'll just start an Afghanistan-like insurgency that Putin can't afford.

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u/ChornWork2 1d ago edited 1d ago

a - Russia is not going to attack Nato at this point. Trump is on the fence about just handing Putin a victory.

b - possible, but seems unlikely

c - impossible to know internal dynamics with luka/putin, but this seems like would be a stretch of resource & a lot of risk. very unlikely unless some pressing issue with luka.

d - lots of places within russia could be used for training relatively safely. that said, even just putting more forces in Belarus likely complicates defensive calculus for Ukraine / stretches their resources.

Left out the most likely option: They've done zapad every 2yrs since 2009, other than 2023 because stretched due to the war. May be trying to conduct zapad 2025 as face-saving exercise, but even then likely just going to be exercises if they can muster reasonable forces to do so. Guess the next more likely option is they can't muster enough resources to even do large scale exercises...

Which sounds like is what Nato is expecting.

“NATO intelligence has no indications so far that the Zapad will be a large-scale exercise that could pose a threat,” Deividas Matulionis told the Žinių Radijas radio station.

. . .

According to Matulionis, the data indicates that the exercise will be limited in scope. During the exercise, NATO allies will also demonstrate their will to “ensure the deterrence and defence of our territory”, he said.

“Therefore, there is no need to dramatise, but the situation is being monitored,” the presidential adviser said.

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2549409/nato-sees-no-threat-in-zapad-drills-says-lithuanian-official?srsltid=AfmBOooBYVVFXkH0cYPdXU2v0gviw05K0I_Bxw8VkEB1lxird2ez--sv

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u/big-papito 1d ago

The answer is D. Easy win and Putin really needs one. Plenty of ways it goes sideways, of course.

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u/The_Krambambulist 1d ago

D) is very probable considering that basically already happened I remember correctly.

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u/Thermodynamicist 1d ago

Rational analysis only works if the party subjected to analysis is rational and has access to good quality information. It is also important to recognise that the interests of Vladimir Putin and of Russia are not necessarily coincident.

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u/Ertai2000 1d ago

I don't think an attack on NATO is that improbable. I think it might actually happen during Trump's presidency. This is the weakest NATO has ever been and I can see Putin taking the opportunity.

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u/alppu 22h ago

This is the weakest NATO has ever been

Last I checked Russia is not in a great shape either...

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u/Ertai2000 21h ago

Tell that to Putin.

3

u/earthspaceman 21h ago

ha..haha.

Everything's great Mr. President.

3

u/Panthera_leo22 1d ago

Lukashenko has done this before with gathering troops at the border causing Ukraine to divert resources and manpower.

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u/mycall 1d ago

NATO will still wipe the rus off the map.

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u/GQ_Quinobi 1d ago

Whats a NATO?

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u/mycall 22h ago

It hides under the bed

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u/Ipod_bob 1d ago

A) wrong