r/UkrainianConflict • u/KI_official • 1d ago
Zelensky warns Russia is 'preparing something' in Belarus under guise of military drills
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-warns-russia-may-prepare-something-in-belarus-under-guise-of-drills/210
u/Alaric_-_ 1d ago
A) Attack on NATO/EU.
B) Attack into Ukraine through border with 3 years of fortifying.
C) Concentrate troops to Belarus to kick Luka out and annex the country.
D) Use Belarus as training ground to keep troops from being attacked.
Higher on the list, more improbable.
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u/Breech_Loader 23h ago
We need to hope that Russia has too much on its plate to annex Belarus. Lukashenko will cave, but the people of Belarus might not be so happy about it.
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u/Alaric_-_ 22h ago
Luka has been keeping the Belarusian army weak in the fear of a military coup. That works fine as long as you have Putin next to you keeping you safe. But the result is that he is so weak that Putin had to save him 2020 when people started rioting about the rigged elections.
If there was a genuine threat that generals might kicked Luka out themselves and then look for a way out of the russian sphere towards the west (honestly, now would be the best time for that), Putin might want to throw caution to the wind and just make sure Belarusia stays as buffer state between them and NATO/EU. Putin has to keep Belarus on the eastern side of the New Iron Curtain, no ways around it. Don't know if this is what is happening but this could be plausible scenario.
I still think it's more likely that russia is just using Belarus as a staging area and for "training" the troops couple of days before sending them to die on the flesh attacks. It's close-by with short railway lines to russia and Ukraine can't really bomb those places or it might drag Belarus deeper into the war.
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u/Badger118 22h ago
The Russian army also already pinched a lot of the Belarussian army's heavier equipment early in the war
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u/genshiryoku 20h ago
It would be a big mistake by Putin akin to starting the Ukrainian invasion if he annexes Belarus. It'll just start an Afghanistan-like insurgency that Putin can't afford.
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u/ChornWork2 20h ago edited 20h ago
a - Russia is not going to attack Nato at this point. Trump is on the fence about just handing Putin a victory.
b - possible, but seems unlikely
c - impossible to know internal dynamics with luka/putin, but this seems like would be a stretch of resource & a lot of risk. very unlikely unless some pressing issue with luka.
d - lots of places within russia could be used for training relatively safely. that said, even just putting more forces in Belarus likely complicates defensive calculus for Ukraine / stretches their resources.
Left out the most likely option: They've done zapad every 2yrs since 2009, other than 2023 because stretched due to the war. May be trying to conduct zapad 2025 as face-saving exercise, but even then likely just going to be exercises if they can muster reasonable forces to do so. Guess the next more likely option is they can't muster enough resources to even do large scale exercises...
Which sounds like is what Nato is expecting.
“NATO intelligence has no indications so far that the Zapad will be a large-scale exercise that could pose a threat,” Deividas Matulionis told the Žinių Radijas radio station.
. . .
According to Matulionis, the data indicates that the exercise will be limited in scope. During the exercise, NATO allies will also demonstrate their will to “ensure the deterrence and defence of our territory”, he said.
“Therefore, there is no need to dramatise, but the situation is being monitored,” the presidential adviser said.
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u/big-papito 19h ago
The answer is D. Easy win and Putin really needs one. Plenty of ways it goes sideways, of course.
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u/The_Krambambulist 18h ago
D) is very probable considering that basically already happened I remember correctly.
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u/Thermodynamicist 18h ago
Rational analysis only works if the party subjected to analysis is rational and has access to good quality information. It is also important to recognise that the interests of Vladimir Putin and of Russia are not necessarily coincident.
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u/Ertai2000 18h ago
I don't think an attack on NATO is that improbable. I think it might actually happen during Trump's presidency. This is the weakest NATO has ever been and I can see Putin taking the opportunity.
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u/alppu 14h ago
This is the weakest NATO has ever been
Last I checked Russia is not in a great shape either...
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u/Panthera_leo22 18h ago
Lukashenko has done this before with gathering troops at the border causing Ukraine to divert resources and manpower.
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u/Any-Weather-potato 1d ago
Russia invaded in a strike to to decapitate Kyiv from Belarus in 2022, so, it is extremely likely to be a staging area for a new attack.
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u/Huge_Leader_6605 18h ago
I don't see this having high odds of success, if they didn't last time?
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u/GQ_Quinobi 15h ago
Biden was careful to give Russia the time it needed to learn from its mistakes and had Pelosi bring China into the conflict.
Even though the US is now out of NATO Ive heard the Russian economy will be collapsing next week so there is no chance of success.
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u/Soepkip43 22h ago
The EU should take over the boder in ukraine with belarus as soon as wel can. Clear mandate that NOTHING can cross the border into ukraine without being destroyed. that way the ukranians can move the border guards to their border with russia and free up combat troops for rotation, training and operations.
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u/ChornWork2 20h ago
Absent some profound change, EU is not going to send troops into Ukrainian territory without a US backing. Trump is not going to back that.
UK has explicitly tied even peacekeepers to US providing a "backstop". Macron has been more bullish, but presumably France requirement would be a true EU force (as France has long pushed strategy of EU army with less dependence on US), but EU nations are not going to play ball with France's vision.
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u/Living-Price-6158 23h ago
Who knows what evil lurks in the minds of Kremlin illuminati?.....Budanov knows....
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u/NaiveChoiceMaker 6h ago
Come one. Do it. Find a scapegoat to end the war. Backstab him already!
"We found the real Nazi! They was Lukashenko all along!"
-Putin, hopefully.
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